Going there?
We’ve been there since “every other college” was called “mid-major,” or “minor,” and the P5 were called “major” conferences.
Ironically, the first year of NIL seems to be going against your prediction: a G5 program got two Top 100 players for the first time ever (among all G5 programs).
It seems to me that those players going to play for Deion State University (as well as the AtM and UT signing classes) are early evidence of the primary point of those of us suggesting that NIL, over the next few years, will be the predominant influence on where the elite HS and transfer portal players choose to play.
The wider the NIL disparity gap between AtM, UT, et. al. (Oregon? Notre Dame? Arkansas? TBD University with mega wealthy alumni who are passionate about CFB)
the faster the talent gap between those universities and everyone else
will grow.
In the short term, of course, UGA and Bama will compete for NCs. Even those two, if they get left in the dust of NIL underperformance, will only be able to compete for so long with the leftovers from the top 150 NIL deals.
There are just
so many NIL repercussions and variables that remain to be sorted out and understood. We are in the midst of the NIL Wild, Wild, West.
For example (just stream of consciousness here),
- How long before those deep pockets funding the NIL deals start adding performance, non-compete (can't transfer and play for 1 year if you leave our university prior to your 3rd year of college), deal duration, injury & opt-out penalty, academic eligibility, clawback, etc. clauses to the NIL contracts? Why wouldn't they?
- If the players are, at some point, deemed to be university employees, they may be subject to termination at any time - especially in Work At Will states.
- Many on this board may disagree, but I firmly believe that OAD has diminished the passion that many UK fans have for UKBB. Heck, I remember in the 80's if I chose to grocery shop during a game (baby at home, had to take advantage of the short lines) that Kroger would have the game playing on the PA system. Practically, every person there reacted to a big play. Truth is, I rarely missed a game in those days even if I had to watch the 11:30 tape-delayed version. NIL and the transfer portal potentially will have that same OAD-diminished fan passion impact on CFB.
- It's not difficult to imagine the NIL megabrokers successfully seeking to secure game day promotional deals complete with signings, player product kiosks (apparel, bobbleheads, ?), and product placement.
- At what point do the NIL megabrokers, effectively, become the team owners and managers (see that hot mess that is Auburn football as a point of reference) but with even greater influence than the most egregious examples of booster interference that we see today?
- For the NIL-elite, that is, the universities with billionaire boosters willing to NIL (yes, let's make it a verb, too) with abandon to build an NC-caliber football program, this question will have no bearing. For the rest of us, however, it will have great bearing. So, to what extent will the diversion of booster dollars directly to the players hamstring programs with respect to future investments in facilities and other program needs?
- Big differences between the NFL and CFB NIL. At this point, with NIL: no contract caveats or restrictions (see #1 above), no team "salary" caps, University-affiliation (not city), no collective bargaining, no minimum or guaranteed contract level, no consequences for quitting, one year deals, perpetual transfer portal free agency, academic-eligibility requirements, nothing to stop a few teams from using NIL to just buy the very best players (and, of course, coaches) available.
Players deserve to be paid for their contribution to the CFB money machine.
NIL, as implemented, combined with the free agency impact of the transfer portal, is a recipe for the destruction of CFB.
Both can be true.
The poorly considered manner in which
NIL was launched, in my opinion,
will lead to CFB being owned, not necessarily by the P5 as was suggested earlier, but instead
by the uber wealthy program boosters of just a handful of universities.
In the long run (you out there Keynes?), absent the implementation of essential guardrails,
NIL will define the future landscape of CFB and the CFB national champions...and most of the country won't care.