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Joe Lunardi’s math last night

I didn’t see this mentioned, but Lunardi did a segment last night during the game on why Cal was successful as a tournament coach.

I thought it was a great example of how you can make data lie or at least tell half truths.

He used a metric of expected tournament wins based on seed line, and pointed out that Cal has done better in that area than Tubby or Rick did. Cal had a ratio of 1.1 win for every expected win.

Lunardi was definitely using the opportunity to take shots at our fan base.

Ok, so here’s the lie. The problem, for the most part, hasn’t been Cal underperforming his seed line. The problem has been UK being seeded too low because Cal underperformed during the season.

A 4 seed who makes the Elite Eight has exceeded expectations. A 1 seed who makes the Final Four has only met expectations.

My contention is that Cal has had too many teams who should have been in position to get that 1 seed. But a dropped game (or 2 or 3) season after season has us up against it come March.

We haven’t gotten a 1 seed since 2015. Not entirely coincidentally, that was our last Final Four.

We caught a little fool’s gold with those deep runs in ‘11 and ‘14 as a 4 and 8 seed, respectively. Those were a lot of fun, but they were the exception that proves the rule.

Glad to see us gut it out last night. The Kansas loss is an issue. A home loss to St. Joe’s could have been a problem 4 months from now.
The other lie is that Lunardi included Cal's first 5 years without making a distinction of Cal's past 5 year trend.
 
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We were an 8 seed the 2014 year and beat a 1 seed, 4 seed, two 2 seeds. The real question is how big of a Karen do you have to be to be triggered by this comment and start crying about he’s taking shots at the fanbase.
Your posts are ALL emo, name calling, attacking tantrums. You really need to take a look in the mirror, skippy.
 
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Not to pile on, but the latest thing Cal does to get on my nerves is to claim that we could have won it all in 2020.

Not saying we couldn’t have, but would we have? 95% chance we wouldn’t have. We were looking at a 2 seed at best with a strong SEC tourney showing. Our PG situation was in flux. And Kansas was the clear number 1.

Trying to deflect from your failures by talking about the one that got away is loser stuff. Definitely far beneath a HOF coach.
Officials stole final 4's and who knows how much more in '17 and '19. He absolutely had a contender in 2020 and to say you could have won it all is perfectly reasonable. If that really grinds your nerves it sounds like a you problem. He did not say would have or even probably according to what you have posted here. Is it only coincidence that his struggles occurred while other schools were buying players as we now know for certain?
 
Officials stole final 4's and who knows how much more in '17 and '19. He absolutely had a contender in 2020 and to say you could have won it all is perfectly reasonable. If that really grinds your nerves it sounds like a you problem. He did not say would have or even probably according to what you have posted here. Is it only coincidence that his struggles occurred while other schools were buying players as we now know for certain?
It’s weak for a coach who makes $10 million a year to make excuses like that.

Him highlighting 2020 like he somehow got ripped off is a joke, when you consider that he’s deflecting from his first round exit in 2022. He’s deflecting from missing the tournament in 2021.

Why should anyone expect that we would have won it as a possible 2 seed in 2020 when we didn’t any of those other years?

By the way, I think he did a good coaching job in 2020, but we were 29th in Kenpom for a reason. Survived several games by the skin of our teeth. And as I mentioned, we were going through a meltdown at the PG position when the season ended.

So if it’s a “me problem” that I call out our $10 million dollar coach for his ludicrous smoke blowing, I’ll wear it.

As for 2017 and 2019, sure. Welcome to the tournament. We also barely advanced on a handful of entertaining buzzer beaters some other years. It evens out.

My point is that we should be in the mix for a 1 seed every year. We should be fighting hard to get that 1 seed because it matters. 8 years is way too long. Hopefully this is our year.
 
Your posts are ALL emo, name calling, attacking tantrums. You really need to take a look in the mirror, skippy.
Someone find this snowflake a safespace. The guy who has called Cal every name in the book is now crying about name calling. The man who calls anyone positive a Cal nuthugger is in his feelings. What a joke these frauds are.
 
You’re not a real fan UK fan, you’re a UK hater. LOL at thinking you’re a part of the fanbase, you’re a part of a messageboard clique.
That's okay, "real UK fan," this profile will soon be gone like your 87 previous ones, and you'll be back with another sock account. Wash, rinse, repeat. I can't wait for the day that someone finally figures out who you really are (my money is on one of the mods playing at being a troll to drum up traffic)
 
That's okay, "real UK fan," this profile will soon be gone like your 87 previous ones, and you'll be back with another sock account. Wash, rinse, repeat. I can't wait for the day that someone finally figures out who you really are (my money is on one of the mods playing at being a troll to drum up traffic)
And you’ll be crying when Aaron Bradshaw plays.
 
I didn’t see this mentioned, but Lunardi did a segment last night during the game on why Cal was successful as a tournament coach.

I thought it was a great example of how you can make data lie or at least tell half truths.

He used a metric of expected tournament wins based on seed line, and pointed out that Cal has done better in that area than Tubby or Rick did. Cal had a ratio of 1.1 win for every expected win.

Lunardi was definitely using the opportunity to take shots at our fan base.

Ok, so here’s the lie. The problem, for the most part, hasn’t been Cal underperforming his seed line. The problem has been UK being seeded too low because Cal underperformed during the season.

A 4 seed who makes the Elite Eight has exceeded expectations. A 1 seed who makes the Final Four has only met expectations.

My contention is that Cal has had too many teams who should have been in position to get that 1 seed. But a dropped game (or 2 or 3) season after season has us up against it come March.

We haven’t gotten a 1 seed since 2015. Not entirely coincidentally, that was our last Final Four.

We caught a little fool’s gold with those deep runs in ‘11 and ‘14 as a 4 and 8 seed, respectively. Those were a lot of fun, but they were the exception that proves the rule.

Glad to see us gut it out last night. The Kansas loss is an issue. A home loss to St. Joe’s could have been a problem 4 months from now.
Yeah, he did not mention the fact that Cal had the top ranked recruiting class 8 years and the # 2 recruiting class 5 years and what about those expectations compared to actual performance. We also had 5 first round draft picks in 2010 and lost to a team playing a backup point guard in the elite 8. Guess there were just no expectations that 5 first round draft picks could beat a short handed WVA team!!
 
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I didn’t see this mentioned, but Lunardi did a segment last night during the game on why Cal was successful as a tournament coach.

I thought it was a great example of how you can make data lie or at least tell half truths.

He used a metric of expected tournament wins based on seed line, and pointed out that Cal has done better in that area than Tubby or Rick did. Cal had a ratio of 1.1 win for every expected win.

Lunardi was definitely using the opportunity to take shots at our fan base.

Ok, so here’s the lie. The problem, for the most part, hasn’t been Cal underperforming his seed line. The problem has been UK being seeded too low because Cal underperformed during the season.

A 4 seed who makes the Elite Eight has exceeded expectations. A 1 seed who makes the Final Four has only met expectations.

My contention is that Cal has had too many teams who should have been in position to get that 1 seed. But a dropped game (or 2 or 3) season after season has us up against it come March.

We haven’t gotten a 1 seed since 2015. Not entirely coincidentally, that was our last Final Four.

We caught a little fool’s gold with those deep runs in ‘11 and ‘14 as a 4 and 8 seed, respectively. Those were a lot of fun, but they were the exception that proves the rule.

Glad to see us gut it out last night. The Kansas loss is an issue. A home loss to St. Joe’s could have been a problem 4 months from now.
A lot of those seed lines were due to some bs shenanigans by the committee. We were grossly under seeded multiple times
 
Yeah, he did not mention the fact that Cal had the top ranked recruiting class 8 years and the # 2 recruiting class 5 years and what about those expectations compared to actual performance. We also had 5 first round draft picks in 2010 and lost to a team playing a backup point guard in the elite 8. Guess there were just no expectations that 5 first round draft picks could beat a short handed WVA team!!
I would disagree with the premise that the #1 or #2 ranked recruiting classes mean UK has underperformed. I would argue that UK has underperformed because it relied heavily on #1 or #2 ranked recruiting classes with very little carry-over from year to year – especially in regard to the highest ranked recruits. Also, if you accept that the NBA looks for youth, athleticism and projection, and drafts on potential, then why would the number of draft picks after the season mean UK should have beat the better teams in CBB?

Give me the better CBB players, who have matured, gotten wiser and honed their skills, and I’ll be thrilled if UK never gets close to another recruiting title.
 
The other lie is that Lunardi included Cal's first 5 years without making a distinction of Cal's past 5 year trend.
Honestly I actually think just the opposite here.

This segment seemed to be completely about Cal and whether he’s over performed or under performed relative to seeding in the tournament. As such why not include what he did at Memphis. Why not include what he did at Umass. Now other than the two final fours I honestly have no idea what he did tournament wise but the main thing is always take the entire body of work.

It doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge the downward trend and the lack of good seasons in recent history. But I don’t think you throw away any data when looking at this.

Like if they were deciding whether or not a baseball player was deserving of the hall of fame we don’t look at the last 3-5 years and base anything on that. We look at the entire body of work.

I feel like it’s the same thing here.
 
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