I didn’t see this mentioned, but Lunardi did a segment last night during the game on why Cal was successful as a tournament coach.
I thought it was a great example of how you can make data lie or at least tell half truths.
He used a metric of expected tournament wins based on seed line, and pointed out that Cal has done better in that area than Tubby or Rick did. Cal had a ratio of 1.1 win for every expected win.
Lunardi was definitely using the opportunity to take shots at our fan base.
Ok, so here’s the lie. The problem, for the most part, hasn’t been Cal underperforming his seed line. The problem has been UK being seeded too low because Cal underperformed during the season.
A 4 seed who makes the Elite Eight has exceeded expectations. A 1 seed who makes the Final Four has only met expectations.
My contention is that Cal has had too many teams who should have been in position to get that 1 seed. But a dropped game (or 2 or 3) season after season has us up against it come March.
We haven’t gotten a 1 seed since 2015. Not entirely coincidentally, that was our last Final Four.
We caught a little fool’s gold with those deep runs in ‘11 and ‘14 as a 4 and 8 seed, respectively. Those were a lot of fun, but they were the exception that proves the rule.
Glad to see us gut it out last night. The Kansas loss is an issue. A home loss to St. Joe’s could have been a problem 4 months from now.