Jay Bruce sucks.......
- Thread starter PTI (pti)
- Start date
The best defensive right fielder in the game is now hitting .280. He had another stolen base and he gunned somebody down again.
AND Bruce hits the gamewinning HR against Roy Halladay and the Phils.
He sure does suck, doesn't he?
This post was edited on 6/30 5:10 PM by podgejeff_
He sure does suck, doesn't he?
This post was edited on 6/30 5:10 PM by podgejeff_
I was looking at some Bruce stats today and saw his baseball reference most similar hitters through age 22.
1. Barry Bonds
2. Willy Mo Pena
That's quite a floor & ceiling but I will go out on a limb and say I think Bruce will fall somewhere in the middle of those 2 guys
It is sort of funny to me though because I've heard so many people use those 2 extremes when discussing Bruce. One thing that can't be disputed though is that he should be the winner of MANY gold gloves in RF, if you actually watch him play he is a phenomenal all around fielder.
1. Barry Bonds
2. Willy Mo Pena
That's quite a floor & ceiling but I will go out on a limb and say I think Bruce will fall somewhere in the middle of those 2 guys
It is sort of funny to me though because I've heard so many people use those 2 extremes when discussing Bruce. One thing that can't be disputed though is that he should be the winner of MANY gold gloves in RF, if you actually watch him play he is a phenomenal all around fielder.
Just to add a little fuel to the fire. Dunn is hitting .275 with 17 and 47 for the Nats this year. Could be there all star rep.
Posted from wireless.rivals.com[/URL]
Posted from wireless.rivals.com[/URL]
The same fat lazy ass that wouldn't play 1st for us is going to take an all star spot over Votto. To tell the truth I am glad he wouldn't play 1st for us because he would probably be still sucking at while not hitting with RISP and striking out every other at bat. That would mean Votto would be crushing for some other team and we would have a 40 year old bullpen mop up guy in his place. Thank You Fat Donkey!
Not a chance Votto gets left off the All Star team. And I'd much rather have Votto than Dunn. The Reds should have told Dunn he was playing first base instead of asking. Might have gotten more out of him in trade that way.
Thru 86 games (> halfway thru the season), he's at....
.273 = 44th in the NL
.349 = 39th in the NL
.457 = 36th in the NL
10 homers = t-44th in the NL
36 rbi = t-55th in the NL
78 strikeouts = t-14th in the NL
36 walks = t-30th in the NL
The lack of power is very surprising, particularly in one of the easiest home run-hitting ballparks in all of baseball (especially for a lefty - 7 of his 10 homers are at GABP). He's having a very nice season. Certainly no complaints from me - and I like the way he's really stepped up his game defensively.
But he's still nowhere NEAR what we thought we'd be getting out of the #1 overall prospect in baseball. Sorry, but a corner outfielder who hits .275 with 20 homers and 70 rbi doesn't blow me away.
.273 = 44th in the NL
.349 = 39th in the NL
.457 = 36th in the NL
10 homers = t-44th in the NL
36 rbi = t-55th in the NL
78 strikeouts = t-14th in the NL
36 walks = t-30th in the NL
The lack of power is very surprising, particularly in one of the easiest home run-hitting ballparks in all of baseball (especially for a lefty - 7 of his 10 homers are at GABP). He's having a very nice season. Certainly no complaints from me - and I like the way he's really stepped up his game defensively.
But he's still nowhere NEAR what we thought we'd be getting out of the #1 overall prospect in baseball. Sorry, but a corner outfielder who hits .275 with 20 homers and 70 rbi doesn't blow me away.
^ Agree with every word of that, but there is lots of reason to believe he will turn into a very good player given his overall skill set and age.
So he's a top 50 NL offensive player with GG defense at the age of 23, where your average player is in High A or AA.
Another thing is that you've brought up the fact that he was the Minor League POTY. So far he's more valuable than previous winners Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, and Rocco Baldelli. Would you take Rick Ankiel or Jon Rauch over Bruce? I wouldn't. If you want to look at POTY from the minors you'll find that Bruce probably falls right in as average for the past ten years. He's not Joe Mauer but he's certainly not Delmon Young, either. And he's been progressing and showing potential.
What do you expect out of a minor league player of the year? He's 23 and the fourth best offensive option on our team, behind Phillips in his prime, a future HoF, and Votto who's three years older and is one of the best offensive players in baseball. Three years ago Votto was getting his first cup of coffee in the majors, not being an above average starter like Bruce.
I'm not talking about Minor League POY.
He was listed as Baseball America's top prospect for 2008.
link: click here
I sure as hell wouldn't take him over Evan Longoria. I know that. Nor would I take him over....
- Jason Heyward (2010)
- Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)
- Joe Mauer (2004, 2005)
- Mark Teixeira (2003)
- Josh Beckett (2002)
- Josh Hamilton (2001)
He's likely going to grow into a very good, solid player. Good for him. But corner outfielders who give you .275-25-80 aren't very tough to find. Why do you think Reggie Sanders played for about 20 different MLB teams???
He was listed as Baseball America's top prospect for 2008.
link: click here
I sure as hell wouldn't take him over Evan Longoria. I know that. Nor would I take him over....
- Jason Heyward (2010)
- Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)
- Joe Mauer (2004, 2005)
- Mark Teixeira (2003)
- Josh Beckett (2002)
- Josh Hamilton (2001)
He's likely going to grow into a very good, solid player. Good for him. But corner outfielders who give you .275-25-80 aren't very tough to find. Why do you think Reggie Sanders played for about 20 different MLB teams???
The two things that concern me about Bruce is that he is playing in a bandbox and with his power should be hitting 30+ HR's in his sleep. Also I just don't ever see him hitting for a high average consistently with that long looping swing. I must admit I would rather have 7-8 guys at bat on this team when a big hit is needed. I know it's early in his career but Bruce isn't a run producer!!
It's splitting hairs, but Dice-K hasn't really been good since his first two years. He's been okay but ridiculously overpriced. I'd take Bruce over him. And Delmon Young won in 2006, who Bruce is better than.
And using WAR to compare, Jay Bruce is an average to slightly above average Major League RF. At 23. I'll openly admit that Heyward, Longoria, and Mauer are all better than Bruce (so far, anyway).
But Teixeira at age 23 was just making his debut and hitting right around what Bruce is hitting now with a stat line of 259 .331 .480 .811...as a 1B. Jay Bruce is playing a far harder defensive position and playing it defensively very well. Defensively, Teixeira has never been anything but average to below average at 1b. So Bruce > Teixeira at the same age.
Josh Hamilton didn't even make his debut in the majors until he was 26, although his time before that was out of baseball and on drugs. Hard to compare there, although Hamilton was being called a once-in-a-generation player out of HS, and is probably far more gifted than Jay Bruce just in the way of natural talent. Bruce looks to have a longer career.
It's hard to compare position players to pitchers but using WAR Jay Bruce's season this year, at 23, will be roughly equivalent to Josh Beckett's 2003 season with Florida when he was 23, unless he does a nosedive for the season.
I'd personally rank them:
Mauer
Longoria
Heyward
Hamilton
Beckett
Bruce
Teixeira
DiceK
Young
If you're going to go by the winners of the last decade. And no telling where their careers could go. Bruce could fall to the bottom of this list or end up being the best player on this list. Him, Longoria, and Heyward all have long careers ahead of them barring injury. And it's not like Mauer and Hamilton are old.
He's the 5th-best player on the team right now. Doesn't exactly make him stand out as an overacheiver. 90 games into the season...
.266 batting average
.339 on-base % (by the way, both of those are lower than Ryan Freel's career #s)
10 home runs
36 rbi
That's awfully replaceable for a corner outfielder in a small park.
Ranking the Reds 8 everyday starters...
1> Joey Votto
2> Scott Rolen
3> Brandon Phillips
4> Jonny Gomes
5> Jay Bruce
He's having a nice, good season. But put Chris Heisey in right field for 90 games and he gives you about the same results.
.266 batting average
.339 on-base % (by the way, both of those are lower than Ryan Freel's career #s)
10 home runs
36 rbi
That's awfully replaceable for a corner outfielder in a small park.
Ranking the Reds 8 everyday starters...
1> Joey Votto
2> Scott Rolen
3> Brandon Phillips
4> Jonny Gomes
5> Jay Bruce
He's having a nice, good season. But put Chris Heisey in right field for 90 games and he gives you about the same results.
Originally posted by PTI (pti):
Originally posted by podgejeff_:
So, you would rank Jay F'ing Bruce higher than Mark Teixeira???
Do you realize Teixeira led the AL in home runs *and* RBI last year?
And last year he was 29. And had been in the majors for six years. That was also arguably his best season ever. In the middle of his prime.
Bruce is 23.
Is this whole age distinction difficult for you?
LOL @ Gomes > Bruce.
And you keep saying that Bruce is replaceable as a corner outfielder. Gomes is in the position known most for its offense OPSing .800 with some of the worst defense MLB has ever seen at 29 years old. Take away his month of May and god only knows how bad he'd be. There's only one LF worse in the NL Central, and that's Carlos Lee. According to WAR, Gomes is the 4th worst LF in the majors.
Might as well argue that Cabrera is better. At least he can defend shortstop somewhat.
At best he and Jonny Gomes are a wash.
.266 vs .277 batting average
.339 vs .330 on-base %
.446 vs .471 slugging %
10 hr vs 11 hr
36 rbi vs 60 rbi
50 runs vs 36 runs
Okay, throw in some nifty defense, and you can feel free to put Bruce ahead of Gomes. Congrats. You win.
Jay Bruce is better than an $800,000/year veteran.
If Jay Bruce puts up those stats, he's incredibly replaceable. Look at Jack Cust last year --> Jack Cust stats
He's about as crappy of an everyday player as you'll find in baseball, and in a pitcher's park, he put up numbers that are pretty similar to what Bruce is giving the Reds right now. So again, I'm not impressed.
(and before you bring it up --> no, i dont give a rats ass that jack cust is 31 years old. he sucks. thats the point.)
.266 vs .277 batting average
.339 vs .330 on-base %
.446 vs .471 slugging %
10 hr vs 11 hr
36 rbi vs 60 rbi
50 runs vs 36 runs
Okay, throw in some nifty defense, and you can feel free to put Bruce ahead of Gomes. Congrats. You win.
Jay Bruce is better than an $800,000/year veteran.
If Jay Bruce puts up those stats, he's incredibly replaceable. Look at Jack Cust last year --> Jack Cust stats
He's about as crappy of an everyday player as you'll find in baseball, and in a pitcher's park, he put up numbers that are pretty similar to what Bruce is giving the Reds right now. So again, I'm not impressed.
(and before you bring it up --> no, i dont give a rats ass that jack cust is 31 years old. he sucks. thats the point.)
You're right Jay Bruce is better than a 800,000 veteran and he's only making 440,000 this year.
Here's a question for you: do you think Jay Bruce is going to get any better? Or do you think this is his ceiling? Nobody's arguing that he's an MVP right now. Right now he's a MLB average RF. You're right in that he's replaceable, albeit for more money than he's making. MLB average RF is still valuable, and much better than "sucks".
The age thing does matter. At 23 most guys haven't played in the majors for 2+ years. They're usually in the minors. And even if they are in the majors, they're usually getting a cup of coffee. Mark Teixeira was a pedestrian or below average 1B at 23. Of course nobody's going to take Jay Bruce over Teixeira right now. Votto at 23 was getting a cup of coffee, although he did do well at the end of the season in those meaningless games.
Let's look at some other stars.
Brandon Phillips couldn't keep a roster spot on the Indians at 23 and was OPSing around the mid 500s. Adrian Gonzales was sucking terribly on the Rangers at 23 and OPSing under 700 as a 1B. Matt Holliday was in the minors. Ryan Zimmerman was decent, but a bench player at best at 23. Chase Utley was batting a mighty 239 with a sub-700 OPS. Josh Willingham was in the minors. Alfonso Soriano was terrible at 23, with a batting average of .125.
Jay Bruce is quite ahead of the curve.
No, I *dont* think he's going to get a whole helluva lot better than he is now. I think he'll typically hit in the .270 range, and get on base about 34 or 35% of the time. Which is nothing special at all.
I *do* think he'll hit for power.
#1 --> he's a strong kid.
#2 --> he's in one of the best home-run hitting ballparks for a lefty
So, in his "prime," he'll eventually be a .270-.350-30 homer guy. Who doesn't walk enough, and strikes out way too much. Which is very nice. But nothing to brag about at all for a former #1 overall prospect.
I *do* think he'll hit for power.
#1 --> he's a strong kid.
#2 --> he's in one of the best home-run hitting ballparks for a lefty
So, in his "prime," he'll eventually be a .270-.350-30 homer guy. Who doesn't walk enough, and strikes out way too much. Which is very nice. But nothing to brag about at all for a former #1 overall prospect.
I disagree on some point and agree on others. He is ridiculously strong, I think his HR power will be better than 30 HRs if he's hitting .270. I disagree on his walks. He's walking above average now, that should only improve with experience (hopefully). I do agree that he'll be a high strikeout guy, no surprises there.
Someone who hits for .270 with an OBP of .350 and 30 homers with above average to GG defense is very nice indeed. That's an at least $8 million dollar a year player. And most would argue that is Jay Bruce's floor. If he's even slightly better in any department he's All-Star caliber.
BTW Larry Walker, who was Jay Bruce's biggest comp coming out of the minors based on skill set, was practically the same player as Bruce at age 23 as far as production goes.
Larry Walker is a *significantly* better player that Jay Bruce, regardless of the comparison that you heard.
Larry Walker --> struck out > 100 times only 3x in a 17-year career. Jay Bruce is about to log his second, and he would have already tied Walker's career mark if not for his injury last season. In fact, I'll bet you anything that he'll strike out > 100 times every single full season of his career. Easily. For his entire career, Walker struck out 1.3 times of every walk. Bruce's stats are at least double that at essentially every stop in his professional career.
Larry Walker --> stole > 15 bases 7 times in his career. Bruce did that once in single-A ball, and will likely never do it again.
I'd be thrilled, and completley shocked if he had 1/2 of Walker's career. Especially considering Walker played so many years in Colorado. He's a career .313-.400 career hitter, for god's sake. NO CHANCE your boy does that.
Larry Walker --> struck out > 100 times only 3x in a 17-year career. Jay Bruce is about to log his second, and he would have already tied Walker's career mark if not for his injury last season. In fact, I'll bet you anything that he'll strike out > 100 times every single full season of his career. Easily. For his entire career, Walker struck out 1.3 times of every walk. Bruce's stats are at least double that at essentially every stop in his professional career.
Larry Walker --> stole > 15 bases 7 times in his career. Bruce did that once in single-A ball, and will likely never do it again.
I'd be thrilled, and completley shocked if he had 1/2 of Walker's career. Especially considering Walker played so many years in Colorado. He's a career .313-.400 career hitter, for god's sake. NO CHANCE your boy does that.
Well of course Larry Walker was a better player than Jay Bruce. Larry Walker is a retired future HoF and Bruce is just a young guy who hasn't even made an All-Star team. Bruce has a long career ahead of him. But coming up through the minors his skillset was compared to Larry Walker by scouts. Search the two names on Google and you'll get quite a few hits.
And Larry Walker is Jay Bruce's ceiling. It's unlikely he hits that.
But Larry Walker, at age 23, was striking out a little more than Bruce is now (K% was 23.4, as opposed to Bruce's %22.9 this season) while walking just a little bit more (%10.3 compared to %9.9). Their K/BB ratio is practically identical at similar ages. Larry Walker hit less XBH than Jay Bruce at the same age. Bruce is on page to match or exceed Walker's HR total from his 1990 season. Bruce will easily beat Walker's RBI total from his 1990 season.
Walker's stat line from 1990:
.241 .326 .434 .761
Bruce's so far this season:
.266 .339 .446 .785
Better offensively in every category. Defensively Walker is likely better than Bruce. Comparing Walker's entire career to Bruce's first two seasons is pointless. Walker wasn't much more than an average starter until he hit 25.
Rolen's a stretch but will be on the ballot. I might have been too quick with him. The only reasons Walker wouldn't make it would be because of health or the fact that he played in Coors. Not his production. Google brings up this nice little comparison:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
Walker 1806 6334 1238 1992 435 57 351 1212 .314 .400 .567
DiMaggio 1736 6821 1390 2214 389 131 361 1537 .325 .398 .579
And take every single mention of the HoF out of my posts, and you still said nothing to detract from the stats.
What happens to this thread if he gets traded this week? Pinned? Deleted? Printed out and saved in the National Archives?
Similar threads
