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Scouting LSU

Comebakatz3

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Aug 8, 2008
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This one I believe was requested, so it must be done.

Kentucky heads to the bayou this weekend for a three game set against the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, Lousiana. This will be no easy task as LSU looks to be one of the best, if not the best, team in the country. LSU is 27-5, but league play hasn't been overly kind to them as they're just 7-4 to start SEC play. LSU has won every series, but they've dropped one game in each of the weekends during league play, and game 3 against South Carolina was canceled, which is why they've got 11 games instead of 12. That being said, they've faced quite a gauntlet in league play so far with TAMU. Arkansas, Tennessee and South Carolina. This will be their fourth weekend in a row facing a top 12 opponent.

LSU plays in Alex Box stadiums, which is one of the biggest and rowdiest college football stadiums in the entire country. Seating 10,326 cajuns, it is a natural surface. They actually broke their attendance record just a few weeks ago against Tennessee with 13,068 fans in attendance, and it wouldn't surprise me to see similar numbers this weekend against a good Kentucky squad. The stadium goes 330 down each line, 365 in the power alleys, 405 to straight away center.

Jay Johnson is the head man in Baton Rouge and he is in his second season with the Tigers. He came to LSU by way of Arizona where he took the Wildcats to the CWS twice. Last year he got the Tigers a 40 win season, but failed to make it out of the Hattiesburg (Southern Miss) regional as the 2 seed. To show you the power of LSU baseball, they went and hired Wes Johnson (no relation) from the Minnesota Twins in June of 2022 to be their pitching coach. I don't know many programs that would be able to steal a Big Leauge pitching coach, but LSU pulled it off. They also brought in Josh Johnson in 2022 to be third base coach, to recruit and work with Catchers and and first basemen. He was at Duke prior and really helped to build that program to a fairly successful one. Mark Wanaka, who reminds me a touch of Jared Lorenzen, was brought with Johnson from Nevada and Arizona.

As usual we start with the hitting and LSU has it in spades. They have the second best batting average in the entire country at .333, behind only Virginia hitting .336. They are also 11th in the country in home runs, and tied for 2nd most doubles in the SEC with 70 and third most triples with 10 (UK also has 10). They also lead the country in on base percentage, so they are also taking walks at a pretty high clip. They also get hit a lot with pitches, they are ranked 11th in the country in that category (UK is tied for 6th), they have 70 and we have 72 HBPs.

The offense starts with Dylan Crews. Junior centerfielder Crews leads the nation in batting average and it isn't close. He's hitting .505 on the season. When you talk about video game numbers, this is it. The next closest guy in the country is still 29 points behind him. Crews will hit third in the lineup and he's not shy on power with 9 home runs this year to go with 11 doubles. He's walked 33 times to 16 strikeouts and he's 3 for 3 on stolen bases. UK has been real careful with certain hitters lately and it might not surprise me to see them walk Crews every chance possible. Gavin Dugas will lead off for the Tigers and play second base. Dugas is hitting .347 on the season and has 10 home runs to his name along with 6 doubles. Not a stolen base threat, which this LSU isn't across the board with just 19 bags attempted all year. Tre' Morgan will hit in the two hole. Morgan is a junior and many might remember him playing first base last year, he will still do that some this season, but it seems like he's found a bit of a home in left field. Morgan is hitting .330 on the season and has 8 doubles, 3 triples and 2 home runs. Tommy White transferred to LSU in the off season from NC State. As many might recall, White turned the college baseball world on its head a year ago with his power as he had 27 home runs a year ago and was an All ACC First Teamer and ACC Freshman of the year. White will hit in the 4 spot and play third and he's done well again this season going .364 with 11 doubles andd 11 home runs. He doesn't walk much with just 8 on the year, but he's also only struck out 13 times. Home run numbers aren't as video game like as a year ago, but he's still a stud that can burn you at any time. Cade Beloso seems to be settling into the 5 hole and at DH. Beloso is coming off a 2022 injury and has only started 11 games this season, but he's hitting .420 with 3 doubles and 4 home runs in just 50 at bats, the slugging percentage is .720 and he has 7 walks to just 6 strikeouts. Jared Jones will hit in the 6 hole and play first base primarily. Jones is second on the team in batting average at .368 and has 9 home runs and 9 doubles to go along with a pair of stolen bases. He is a strikeout liabiltiy with 39 on the season to just 15 walks. He has 16 percent of the team's strikeouts, so it seems like some feast or famine in the 6 hole. The bottom of the lineup is a bit of a mixed bag, in large part because LSU is struggling to find who they want to play right field on a regular basis. Brayden Jobert has played there and started 17 games and is hitting .296 in 71 at bats with 3 doubles, a triple and 5 home runs. However, he's struck out 20 times and walked just 9. Josh Pearson has also manned the right field corner and started 14 games with 58 at bats, but he's struggled hitting just .224with 3 doubles and a triple. However, he's walked 11 times to 12 strikeouts, so he seems more patient. Paxton King has also played there and started 19 games with 68 at bats and he's hitting .324 with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and 3 home runs to go with a pair of swiped bags. He took has strikeout troubles with 19 to 7 walks. Some others could possibly play there, but in the three games I focused on it was these three and depending on who plays, it seems to shake up the bottom of the lineup. We know for sure that Jordan Thompson will be near the bottom of the lineup and will be playing short stop. Thompson is hitting .305 with 7 doubles, a triple, and 5 home runs and is 4 of 6 on stolen bases. He has troubles with strikeouts with 25 to 15 walks. Likely hitting last will be Brady Neal who plays backstop for LSU and is hitting .209 with a double, a triple, and 3 home runs. He has done well with a .411 OBP despite hitting poorly.

LSU will also use a few substitutes at catcher including Hayden Tavinski who has yet to start a game and has played in 11 but in 8 ABs he's hitting .500 and has a double. I only expect to see him in a blowout type game. Alex Milazzo is the other one who has started 6 games and is hitting .375 with a double. Ben Nippolt seems to b ea guy they will also start and can play some third base, he's hitting just .194 in 12 starts and 36 at bats with one double.

Clearly, this team rakes and UK pitchers will have to bring their A+ game to every at bat or LSU will make us pay. They are patient, don't have a huge number of strikeouts and they absolutely mash when pitchers make mistakes.
 
LSU vulnerability comes in with pitching, but it isn't a whole lot of vulnerability as they still have a team ERA of 3.98, which ranks 6th best in the league, and that is despite having 2 SEC games get away from them where they gave up 13 runs to USC and 14 runs to Tennessee. Opponents are hitting just .201 against LSU putching, which is second best in the league and they seem to limit doubles and home runs as they're top 3 or so in those categories as well. They also have 7 shutouts this season, which is tied for the best in the league.

Paul Skenes a 6'6 247 pound righty will likely go in game one. Skenes has a 1.14 ERA in 8 starts and opponents are hitting just .130 against him. Hes thrown a league leading 47.1 innings and he has 91 strikeouts to just 8 walks. He transferred to LSU from Air Force where he was a First Team All American in 2021 and 2022. He was Collegiate Baseball's National Co-Freshman of the Year in 2021 and MWC Co-Pitcher of the year in 2022. He has gone 7 innings in every single game except the last one against South Carolina whre he struggled and only threw 3 innings and gave up 2 earned runs on 3 hits. Despite struggling he still struck out 8 in those 3 innings. If he is on his 8 game then tonight's game might not be a whole lot of fun for UK hitters, who have a pretty high tendency to strikeout. He has double digit strikeout numbers in every single game except the USC game, which was still 8. Unbelievable talent from this huge junior who also apparently serves as a possible utlity player, but we've yet to see him take on that role for LSU this year. He's been involved in 3 of those shutouts that I mentioned earlier.

Ty Floyd has started every game two of the SEC slate. He carries a 3.67 ERA in 6 starts and 8 appearances and has thrown 34.1 innings. Opponents hitting just .160 against him but he has a huge tendency to give up the long ball as he's given up 6 so far this season. He also struggles some with control with 14 walks. He is a 6'2 righty junior with a mid-low 90s fastball.

Thatcher Hurd, a 6'4 righty sophomore who transferred to LSU from UCLA is likely to go in game 3. A year ago Hurd started 6 games as a true freshman and had a 1.06 ERA. However, Hurd has struggled to some degree this season with a 6.12 ERA in 7 starts and 9 appearances with 25 innings pitched. Opponents are hitting him pretty well at .278 and he's walked 20. He really struggled in his last start against Tennessee where he failed to record an out and gave up 6 runs on 4 hits while walking a pair. Seems like UT just had his number as he only gave up one double in that game, but UT strung together the hits and had the two walks and they put up big numbers on the way to scoring 14 total in that one. One thing we are also seeing during SEC play from Hurd is that he's only going about 3 innings at most, 3.1 is his longest outing against TAMU in weekend 1. The other two weekends (remember the last game of the USC series was canceled so he didn't pitch) he went 2.0 and 0.0. He did pitch in relief on 4/4 and 4/11 throwing just 1 inning in each and throwing just 14 pitches on Tuesday against Tulane. I imagine him pitching against Tulane was essentially a bullpen session, he pitched the last inning, and he'll be fine for Saturday, but it might be an indication that they want to look elsewhere. Either way, it seems like they pitch some by committee on day three.

Christian Little is a big name that people might recall as he pitched for Vanderbilt the last two season and was a starter for them as a true freshman. This year he's pitched in 12 games and has 4 starts. He actually got the start against Tulane on Tuesday, but only went 1 inning of work, but he did throw 40 pitches. So, I imagine that if we see him this weekend it will be in relief only. So far this season Little has a 4.05 ERA with 20 innings of work, he struck out 31 and walked just 10 and opponents are hitting .203 against him. He is a right handed junior that stands 6'4. He has been involved in 4 of the team's 7 shutouts.

Garrett Edwards is another righty junior for LSU and he seems to be the guy that LSU has relied on most out of the bullpen. He's appeared in 10 games with no starts and has thrown 23.1 innings with a 1.93 ERA. He's had 27 strikeouts and just 5 walks with opponents hitting .184 against him. **INJURED**

Nate Ackenhausen is one of their lefties, also a junior, and he has one of the lowest ERAs on the team at 1.54. He's used in spots with just 6 appearances and 11.2 innings of work, he's struck out 13 and walked 5 while opponents hit just .105 against him. He is a transfer from Eastern Oklahoma Community College.

Griffin Herring holds the lowest ERA on the team at 0.75. He's also a lefty, but a true freshman. He has 14 striekouts in 12 innings of work and has opponents hitting just .171 against him. He has thrown at least 2 innings in the last 3 SEC weekends. Given that UK has had some struggles against lefties as of late, I expect LSU to test and see if that continues this weekend as well.

Chase Shores is a monster 6'8 freshman righty who early on was starting games for LSU in the midweek but seems to have switched to relief work during league play. He's pitched in 3 of the 4 SEC weekends and overall has a 1.96 ERA through 18.1 innings with 9 walks and 15 strikeouts. Opponents hitting .231 against him. **INJURED**

Riley Cooper a lefty junior threw 34 pitches in an inning of work on Tuesday, so if we see him it might be on Saturday. He's thrown 22 innings with 2 starts and 11 overall appearances this year. He carries a 5.73 ERA with 9 walks to 22 strikeouts. He's given up 8 doubles, most on the team and opponents are hitting .270 against him. Cooper is a left handed junior that came to LSU from Arizona prior to the 2022 season. He led the staff with 30 appearances a year ago, so LSU really wants to rely on him if they can. This season his 11 appearances is tied for 2nd most behind only Christian Little.

Gavin Guidry is a freshman infielder for LSU, but he's gotten some work on the mound as of late and he's done quite well. He's made 6 appearances on the mound for LSU and thrown 6.1 innings. Id' say those are off shoots in blow outs, but looking deeper he actually threw 1.2 innings against South Carolina in an 8-7 win for LSU. So, LSU might be willing to work him in more. The righty has a 1.42 ERA in those 6.1 innings and he's struck out 12, including 3 of the 7 he faced against USC. Opponents are hitting just .130 against him and he's walked just 3. To highlight him a bit more, he's faced 23 batters, so more than half of his outs have been by way of strikeout, and he's given up just 3 hits, one of which was a double. Pretty impressive work in a short time for a 173 pound freshman.

Overall, there are some holes in the LSU pitching staff, but it is pretty solid. They don't give up a ton of walks, they have given up 119, which is just 1 more than UK has given up. So, UK is likely going to need to string together hits to get on the board.

**Special thanks to @briarcreek for giving me injury updates. I have edited to indicate those pitchers that might not be able to go this weekend.
 
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Kentucky heads to the bayou this weekend for a three game set against the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, Lousiana. This will be no easy task as LSU looks to be one of the best, if not the best, team in the country. LSU is 27-5, but league play hasn't been overly kind to them as they're just 7-4 to start SEC play. LSU has won every series, but they've dropped one game in each of the weekends during league play, and game 3 against South Carolina was canceled, which is why they've got 11 games instead of 12. That being said, they've faced quite a gauntlet in league play so far with TAMU. Arkansas, Tennessee and South Carolina. This will be their fourth weekend in a row facing a top 12 opponent.

LSU plays in Alex Box stadiums, which is one of the biggest and rowdiest college football stadiums in the entire country. Seating 10,326 cajuns, it is a natural surface. They actually broke their attendance record just a few weeks ago against Tennessee with 13,068 fans in attendance, and it wouldn't surprise me to see similar numbers this weekend against a good Kentucky squad. The stadium goes 330 down each line, 365 in the power alleys, 405 to straight away center.

Jay Johnson is the head man in Baton Rouge and he is in his second season with the Tigers. He came to LSU by way of Arizona where he took the Wildcats to the CWS twice. Last year he got the Tigers a 40 win season, but failed to make it out of the Hattiesburg (Southern Miss) regional as the 2 seed. To show you the power of LSU baseball, they went and hired Wes Johnson (no relation) from the Minnesota Twins in June of 2022 to be their pitching coach. I don't know many programs that would be able to steal a Big Leauge pitching coach, but LSU pulled it off. They also brought in Josh Johnson in 2022 to be third base coach, to recruit and work with Catchers and and first basemen. He was at Duke prior and really helped to build that program to a fairly successful one. Mark Wanaka, who reminds me a touch of Jared Lorenzen, was brought with Johnson from Nevada and Arizona.

As usual we start with the hitting and LSU has it in spades. They have the second best batting average in the entire country at .333, behind only Virginia hitting .336. They are also 11th in the country in home runs, and tied for 2nd most doubles in the SEC with 70 and third most triples with 10 (UK also has 10). They also lead the country in on base percentage, so they are also taking walks at a pretty high clip. They also get hit a lot with pitches, they are ranked 11th in the country in that category (UK is tied for 6th), they have 70 and we have 72 HBPs.

The offense starts with Dylan Crews. Junior centerfielder Crews leads the nation in batting average and it isn't close. He's hitting .505 on the season. When you talk about video game numbers, this is it. The next closest guy in the country is still 29 points behind him. Crews will hit third in the lineup and he's not shy on power with 9 home runs this year to go with 11 doubles. He's walked 33 times to 16 strikeouts and he's 3 for 3 on stolen bases. UK has been real careful with certain hitters lately and it might not surprise me to see them walk Crews every chance possible. Gavin Dugas will lead off for the Tigers and play second base. Dugas is hitting .347 on the season and has 10 home runs to his name along with 6 doubles. Not a stolen base threat, which this LSU isn't across the board with just 19 bags attempted all year. Tre' Morgan will hit in the two hole. Morgan is a junior and many might remember him playing first base last year, he will still do that some this season, but it seems like he's found a bit of a home in left field. Morgan is hitting .330 on the season and has 8 doubles, 3 triples and 2 home runs. Tommy White transferred to LSU in the off season from NC State. As many might recall, White turned the college baseball world on its head a year ago with his power as he had 27 home runs a year ago and was an All ACC First Teamer and ACC Freshman of the year. White will hit in the 4 spot and play third and he's done well again this season going .364 with 11 doubles andd 11 home runs. He doesn't walk much with just 8 on the year, but he's also only struck out 13 times. Home run numbers aren't as video game like as a year ago, but he's still a stud that can burn you at any time. Cade Beloso seems to be settling into the 5 hole and at DH. Beloso is coming off a 2022 injury and has only started 11 games this season, but he's hitting .420 with 3 doubles and 4 home runs in just 50 at bats, the slugging percentage is .720 and he has 7 walks to just 6 strikeouts. Jared Jones will hit in the 6 hole and play first base primarily. Jones is second on the team in batting average at .368 and has 9 home runs and 9 doubles to go along with a pair of stolen bases. He is a strikeout liabiltiy with 39 on the season to just 15 walks. He has 16 percent of the team's strikeouts, so it seems like some feast or famine in the 6 hole. The bottom of the lineup is a bit of a mixed bag, in large part because LSU is struggling to find who they want to play right field on a regular basis. Brayden Jobert has played there and started 17 games and is hitting .296 in 71 at bats with 3 doubles, a triple and 5 home runs. However, he's struck out 20 times and walked just 9. Josh Pearson has also manned the right field corner and started 14 games with 58 at bats, but he's struggled hitting just .224with 3 doubles and a triple. However, he's walked 11 times to 12 strikeouts, so he seems more patient. Paxton King has also played there and started 19 games with 68 at bats and he's hitting .324 with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and 3 home runs to go with a pair of swiped bags. He took has strikeout troubles with 19 to 7 walks. Some others could possibly play there, but in the three games I focused on it was these three and depending on who plays, it seems to shake up the bottom of the lineup. We know for sure that Jordan Thompson will be near the bottom of the lineup and will be playing short stop. Thompson is hitting .305 with 7 doubles, a triple, and 5 home runs and is 4 of 6 on stolen bases. He has troubles with strikeouts with 25 to 15 walks. Likely hitting last will be Brady Neal who plays backstop for LSU and is hitting .209 with a double, a triple, and 3 home runs. He has done well with a .411 OBP despite hitting poorly.

LSU will also use a few substitutes at catcher including Hayden Tavinski who has yet to start a game and has played in 11 but in 8 ABs he's hitting .500 and has a double. I only expect to see him in a blowout type game. Alex Milazzo is the other one who has started 6 games and is hitting .375 with a double. Ben Nippolt seems to b ea guy they will also start and can play some third base, he's hitting just .194 in 12 starts and 36 at bats with one double.

Clearly, this team rakes and UK pitchers will have to bring their A+ game to every at bat or LSU will make us pay. They are patient, don't have a huge number of strikeouts and they absolutely mash when pitchers make mistakes.
Awesome preview! Has there been any updates on Chavez?

UK is listing Martin as the Fri night starter and Bosma for Saturday with tonight being TBA. With Williams coming back from injury I wonder if they want to keep him on his normal Friday schedule. If so tonight will be interesting on who starts.
 
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Awesome preview! Has there been any updates on Chavez?

UK is listing Martin as the Fri night starter and Bosma for Saturday with tonight being TBA. With Williams coming back from injury I wonder if they want to keep him on his normal Friday schedule. If so tonight will be interesting on who starts.

I haven't heard anything on Chavez. Anytime a guy leaves a game like he did it usually doesn't end up being good news though.

That is interesting about our pitching tonight. I doubt that they'd bring back Lee so soon. So, not sure what they are going to do with this. I think they really like the Martin/Williams stack, so I imagine they'll stick with that tomorrow night. Maybe they feel their best chance of getting 2 is this way and that they'll Johnny All Staff against the LSU ace?
 
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