As a predictor, most likely.
As a solid barrier, no. Every year there are more top-tier losses in late Feb/early March than expected and things that seemed impossible in January or mid February suddenly look possible.
Even if we lose tonight and put the exclamation point on embarrassing home meltdowns this season, if we actually win out after that we are not only in but probably no worse than a six seed at the very worst.
Wins at Auburn, over Alabama, and at Tennessee plus in all likelihood one more signature win in the SECT, added to our UNC win, make at minimum four wins over top-10 NET opponents, two of them in their own gyms, and provide a little better than that with the semifinal SECT game. Even with our pathetic mass of losses, the selection committee would not find 25 teams better than that this year, even though they would surely try. Also, officially they’ve been saying for a decade they no longer weight late-season momentum when seeding. But that is a fool’s approach to seeding and surely sane minds on that committee will always work against it silently as much as they can. Ending on a ten-game winning streak would make the whole national conversation about almost nothing but how Cal’s baby team grew up and that would affect the committee, at least enough to make the splits that would keep us from falling below a six seed when considering alternative candidates against us head to head.
But realistically we are not going to win out after tonight. And a loss tonight would just be one more indication of that.
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