He needs to make the Elite Eight this year or I believe it will get very unpleasant for him and they would potentially look at negotiating a buyout. The buyout after this year is $33.67 over 5 years, or $6.7 million/year. Here are 3 names that have been mentioned on here as Cal's replacement and what their salary is in 2023:
Eric Musselman - $4.1 million
Nate Oats - $3.4 million
Danny Hurley - $2.9 million
The going rate for a big time coach at a big time program seems to be around $5 - $6 million a year. There are only 5 coaches in college basketball higher than that (Cal, Self, Izzo, Barnes and Pearl) and the other 4 are all below $6 million. I think they could offer a coach $6 million and their annual coaching expense, with the Cal buyout, is at $12.7 million. Crazy numbers, but only about $3 million more annually than what you're spending now.
The question UK would need to ask themselves if they feel the program doesn't get back on track this season....is $3 million annually worth it to move on from Cal?
I just don’t want Musselman. He’s been good but not great imo. He’s already 58. And his style of play is too similar to Cal. Plus he placed no value on roster continuity similar to Cal and that is not a recipe for consistent success. The programs that have been good more often than not in modern college bball(Gonzaga, Kansas, Jay Wright Nova, Baylor recently) get guys back.
Hurley has had one standout season in 13? as a D1 coach now. But maybe he figured something out last year. Because they were dominant aside from one bad stretch in the middle of conference play. I’m still somewhat intrigued by Oats. But i don’t know that strictly 3 or layup is a recipe for consistent tournament success. I think you’re more likely to win a title that way than how Cal has tried to play the last several years.