FSU’s Struggle Reinforces Problem Relying on Transfer Portal

[YaketySax]

FSU may be fine by the end of the season. One game may not be who they are, but why should we feel differently since they took so may transfers this off-season?

UK has had this issue too with portal roulette. Some years (2021) you hit a home run. Other years (2022) you struggle. Alabama’s second string may only seem good because they suit up for Bama not because they can start for a Top 10 preseason team.

I can’t help but apply this to Kentucky and the offensive transfers at QB, RB, and OG and OT. They may be great or they may not be much more than average which is a disadvantage against our schedule.

UK’s defense does have transfers but was mostly built through old fashioned recruit and develop, and it’s also veteran, so we have a consensus on the floor for that side of the ball.

What’s the floor (or ceiling) for the offense. Who knows? We can all guess. Here are my indicators fwiw…

Week 1 - skill players win 80% of their match ups 1v1in space against the CUSA. Brock displays good accuracy. Not looking for points, Stoops won’t try and kill them or show too much of the playbook, but skill and talent domination. SMiss could do everything right on a play, but UK out-athletes them to overcome that in other words.

Week 2 - win by 10+ points, put up at least 350 total yards of offense, or put up 6.5 yards per play. Win at least 60% of 1v1 reps.

Week 3 - points not important vs an elite defense. Guys just aren’t going to get routinely open or win their share of 1v1 in space matchups. So, will watch how they compete. Do they lose reps from fundamentals or just because they reasonable get beat by someone going pro in football while most of our players go pro in something besides football.

 

[bballcat4]

Many/most top P4 schools have a transfer starting QB. Ga’s starting QB is going to be a top 10 NFL pick, so the BG transfer was a natural transfer.

QB’s on their 3rd P4 school would make me nervous. I can understand most 1st transfers, but going to a 3rd school (unless each school is an upgrade in programs) is usually a reflection of talent or inability to be coached.

I agree that having a transfer QB is roulette! But, I do believe our staff’s greatest strength is their ability to identify talent that fits our systems. One of the things that concerns me about BV is the fact that Coen recruited him and most OCs want to recruit their own QB.

I hope the BV/OC marriage works out for the player and our program. Would love for him to excel for 2 years while one of our young QB’s develops in the system. Very few talented QBs will stay in the programs more than 2 years unless they win the starting job.

 

[gamecockcat]

If I'm an FSU fan today, here's some takeaways:
1. We lost a ton on defense and it shows
2. Very disappointed in both lines as neither exerted its will against Ga Tech
3. DJ is DJ - not a difference maker on a team that seemingly desperately needs some difference makers
4. Ga Tech may be significantly better than originally thought. BUT...no way should a program like FSU with a ton of built-in advantages plus coming off a huge year get outphysicaled at the LOS and not show any push by either line. Plus, it looks like FSU is sorely missing dynamic playmakers which would make me think, 'How can that happen to FSU in the heart of some of the most fertile recruiting areas in the nation?'
5. To the OP's point, relying on transfers to make or break a season is an inexact science. Sometimes, guys are not playing at their current school because they're just not good enough (see many of UK's transfers who've had very lackluster production at the new school). We've had very good luck with the portal, for the most part, but we also don't restock half the squad with transfers - we are very selective and bring someone on to fill a specific need. Doesn't always work to perfection but we've done better than most by being selective, imo.

 

[RocknRollCats]

I also question the FSU S&C program. They neither look as thick nor as fit as Kentucky's players.

The left DE looked like a skinny freshman and got repeatedly sealed inside on plays that were either designed to go outside or bounced outside.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I also question the FSU S&C program. They neither look as thick nor as fit as Kentucky's players.

The left DE looked like a skinny freshman and got repeatedly sealed inside on plays that were either designed to go outside or bounced outside.

This 100%, both of their lines looked to be soft and not in condition. The left DE is a portal kid from UGA, Marvin Jones Jr. His dad was an AA at FSU. Kid wouldn't push himself in the weight room and was thrilled with contact, he got very few snaps as a true frosh at UGA. After a heart to heart with Kirby about his effort he decided FSU was a better option for him, former 5* who was clearly overrated. Not the first and won't be the last.

On a little different note, FSU reminded me of a Mark Richt team, tried to rely on finesse and execution instead of forcing the opponent to play physical.

 

[cbrwalt]

Maybe the portal has made GaTech a pretty good team

 

[YaketySax]

Maybe the portal has made GaTech a pretty good team

Yeah it can swing both ways is my thinking

 

[Cobb4uk]

I also question the FSU S&C program. They neither look as thick nor as fit as Kentucky's players.

The left DE looked like a skinny freshman and got repeatedly sealed inside on plays that were either designed to go outside or bounced outside.

Totally agree. A top 10 team just doesn't get pushed around the way GT pushed them around. Their tackling was awful and they allowed about 6 yards a carry. They made GT's offensive line look great. I really don't think they understand how tough the SEC is day in day out. The SEC will make them a middle of the road, maybe, conference team if they ever become a member.

 

[Deeeefense]

I wouldn't connect the portal too much for this FSU loss. FSU was a bit over ranked IMO which seems to be a habit with the media and ACC teams. Both FSU and GTech would be around mid-tier SEC teams at best.

Portal players are much lower risk than recruited players IMO as most have some college film, and additional years of coaching and maturity under their belt. Just anecdotally it seems about half of HS recruits either fall short of the mark, transfer or quit.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I wouldn't connect the portal too much for this FSU loss. FSU was a bit over ranked IMO which seems to be a habit with the media and ACC teams. Both FSU and GTech would be around mid-tier SEC teams at best.

Portal players are much lower risk than recruited players IMO as most have some college film, and additional years of coaching and maturity under their belt. Just anecdotally it seems about half of HS recruits either fall short of the mark, transfer or quit.

I didn't think FSU was very well coached or conditioned. GT appeared to be well coached and better conditioned, that QB is a hard to handle with his ability to pull and run. And I believe FSU was overconfident and doesn't like physical football, soft teams dont.

 

[hmt5000]

I wouldn't connect the portal too much for this FSU loss. FSU was a bit over ranked IMO which seems to be a habit with the media and ACC teams. Both FSU and GTech would be around mid-tier SEC teams at best.

Portal players are much lower risk than recruited players IMO as most have some college film, and additional years of coaching and maturity under their belt. Just anecdotally it seems about half of HS recruits either fall short of the mark, transfer or quit.

I've seen people project ul to top 10 by years end. No team that lost 5 in row to UK would get that love in the SEC. It's a weak conf and good team that has a chance of winning most of their games is going to get ranked just because their W/L will be that of a top team.

 

[JHB4UK]

Maybe the portal has made GaTech a pretty good team

No, coaching did

GA Tech blocked and tackled very well, FSU was poor

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Biggest takeaway from me is the playoff rules are dog crap.

The top 4 teams should get a bye n playoff, even if it's 2 from sec and 2 from big 10.

Acc and big 12 are not true power conferences.

 

[YaketySax]

I wouldn't connect the portal too much for this FSU loss

Maybe! But when I read lots of offseason stories that assume big transfer portal wins were to translate to season wins I remember those linchpin assumptions.

But I think two different conversations are happening now. The portal hype is about expectations., butThe practical reasons Why FSU lost have little to do with the portal minus getting bad players to plug holes left by NFL draft picks.

…like I said though, just one game. Maybe those transfers will do more the rest of the way.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Maybe the portal has made GaTech a pretty good team

Like everyone else they have gotten some layers from the portal and lost some. But key has put together a top flight staff . Their OC is a Monken protege and was our next OC until Bobo was fired. I don't know much about the DC except the proof is in the pudding. Key is a Tech alumni who played and started 4 years under O'Leary. Tech will likely give him an extension and big raise, he makes 2.8m right now

 

[gamecockcat]

FSU had one of the highest rated transfer class this past offseason. Maybe the portal isn't totally to blame (being soft, overconfident, DJ's continued inability to be a difference maker, etc.), but I believe it's definitely a pretty big factor. I'm sure before Saturday, FSU was counting on 'plug-and-play' and never skipping a beat. Obviously didn't happen and exposed several weaknesses that may not be fixable this year.

I'm really interested to see Clemson v Georgia and get a good gauge of just where the 'elite' in the ACC really stands against top SEC teams. Certainly, Clemson won some championships so they weren't paper tigers. But, we'll see if Clemson is a true contender or just perhaps a playoff team due to winning a 2nd tier conference.

 

[Jondale72]

No, coaching did

GA Tech blocked and tackled very well, FSU was poor

Good things happen in football when you tackle and block well.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

DJ is DJ - not a difference maker on a team that seemingly desperately needs some difference makers

Totally agree. They needed him to take a big step forward to mask their deficiencies. Seems he didn't.

 

[UKSanders]

I didn't even watch the game, but living in Tallahassee with numerous friends who are fans and some who have connections fairly close to the program, there were 2 major concerns I've heard:

1. Line of scrimmage

- lack of unity/continuity on the OL: rumor the coaches have been rotating too many guys due somewhat to worries about losing guys to the portal from lack of (or perceived UNDO lack of) playing, so some of the issues were lack of a developed "unit". Still on the coaches to solve, but at least that is one rumor​

- DLine: talk from preseason camp was VERY high on the DL to the point of expecting it to be one of the tops in not the ACC but all of college football... massive under-performance to say the least​

2. QB play: real concerns the coaches have absolutely ZERO trust in the QB to read the defense

& throw downfield. Already talk among fans that IF the coaches trust the upper classmen transfer is really this low, why not take a risk on a younger QB who, although he may throw a pick, may also start to make winning plays at the QB position.​

 

[CardHack]

I'm really interested to see Clemson v Georgia and get a good gauge of just where the 'elite' in the ACC really stands against top SEC teams. Certainly, Clemson won some championships so they weren't paper tigers. But, we'll see if Clemson is a true contender or just perhaps a playoff team due to winning a 2nd tier conference.

Just on paper Clemson seems to lack that Lethal combination of quality QB throwing to a stable of lengthy, explosive receivers. They seem to always have a nasty front seven and quality in the secondary but I think they are going to struggle to move the ball Saturday against UGa. Dabo's path to roster building is unique to the college game now and I think that shows up most in line depth...you had better have complete confidence in your ability to identify and develop your talent. You miss in either and you're putting a freshman on the field in an era starting to be dominated by players in their fourth and fifth season.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Just on paper Clemson seems to lack that Lethal combination of quality QB throwing to a stable of lengthy, explosive receivers. They seem to always have a nasty front seven and quality in the secondary but I think they are going to struggle to move the ball Saturday against UGa. Dabo's path to roster building is unique to the college game now and I think that shows up most in line depth...you had better have complete confidence in your ability to identify and develop your talent. You miss in either and you're putting a freshman on the field in an era starting to be dominated by players in their fourth and fifth season.

In the past they have used PEDs to help with depth.

 

[CardHack]

In the past they have used PEDs to help with depth.

It was common knowledge around the ACC that they were the biggest sign stealers in the league; in fact outside of Wakey Leaks I have never heard a whisper of anyone else in the ACC being accused of it.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

It was common knowledge around the ACC that they were the biggest sign stealers in the league; in fact outside of Wakey Leaks I have never heard a whisper of anyone else in the ACC being accused of it.

That was Venerables, he was supposedly great at it. But I dint think he was sending film crews to future opponents games, maybe he was, but it didn't make the headlines like Michigan and Harbaugh did.

 

[YaketySax]

FSU may be fine by the end of the season. One game may not be who they are, but why should we feel differently since they took so may transfers this off-season?

After two miserable performances, I think there’s something to this.

 

[vhcat70]

Why wouldn't they be worse w/o the portal transfers?

 

[YaketySax]

Why wouldn't they be worse w/o the portal transfers?

In terms of record, maybe they wouldn't be? In the long-term they get game experience and development for HS recruits and build from within. Also, they are wasting someone's NIL money, so with a limited war chest they could have better spent it on others in the portal.

 

[gamecockcat]

Why wouldn't they be worse w/o the portal transfers?

You're probably right. But, sometimes transfers aren't as good as expected. Sometimes they're a cancer in the locker room. Sometimes they don't prepare properly, don't learn the playbook or work hard in the gym. There are a lot of reasons why transfers may not make your team better, similar to highly rated HS recruits that don't pan out. Having said that, Stoops and staff have been outstanding, imo, in identifying transfers that pretty much have all been a step up (maybe Leary would be the exception although God only knows who would've been QB last year if not for Leary. I'm probably forgetting several others who didn't really pan out).

 

[CardHack]

Florida State has gotten trapped in a vise--you retrofit a mistake at QB into your scheme and it can lead to a domino effect where all of your skill positions collapse around it. Unfortunately for DJU it looks like FSU is 0-2 because they are deficient at QB where I'd submit there is something clearly wrong on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They haven't run the ball at all well and are getting run over defensively. There aren't many QBs that can overcome those deficiencies.

We're kind of in the same boat at Louisville; the plus of the Portal for us is we have defensive numbers at each of the three defensive levels we've never had before--and it's very experienced. The minus is we don't really have a 2nd string QB who can go out and win football games for you. Shough looks like a significant improvement over Plummer, but losing three full seasons to injury means you can't trust he'll go through the season unscathed. Not many Portal QBs of value are transferring in to be 2nd string.

 

[YaketySax]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5742003/2024/09/04/sec-football-week-1-slow-start/?source=user_shared_article

 

[YaketySax]

0-3. Maybe 0-4 after tonight.

 

[YaketySax]

Trailing 35-16 in 4Q to SMU. Writhing a shirt hair of 1-4. Etc. I’ll stop bumping this thread but you get the point.

 

[syrus12]

That program is in absolute shambles after narrowly missing the playoff last year. Crazy stuff