FSU’s Struggle Reinforces Problem Relying on Transfer Portal

[YaketySax]

FSU may be fine by the end of the season. One game may not be who they are, but why should we feel differently since they took so may transfers this off-season?

UK has had this issue too with portal roulette. Some years (2021) you hit a home run. Other years (2022) you struggle. Alabama’s second string may only seem good because they suit up for Bama not because they can start for a Top 10 preseason team.

I can’t help but apply this to Kentucky and the offensive transfers at QB, RB, and OG and OT. They may be great or they may not be much more than average which is a disadvantage against our schedule.

UK’s defense does have transfers but was mostly built through old fashioned recruit and develop, and it’s also veteran, so we have a consensus on the floor for that side of the ball.

What’s the floor (or ceiling) for the offense. Who knows? We can all guess. Here are my indicators fwiw…

Week 1 - skill players win 80% of their match ups 1v1in space against the CUSA. Brock displays good accuracy. Not looking for points, Stoops won’t try and kill them or show too much of the playbook, but skill and talent domination. SMiss could do everything right on a play, but UK out-athletes them to overcome that in other words.

Week 2 - win by 10+ points, put up at least 350 total yards of offense, or put up 6.5 yards per play. Win at least 60% of 1v1 reps.

Week 3 - points not important vs an elite defense. Guys just aren’t going to get routinely open or win their share of 1v1 in space matchups. So, will watch how they compete. Do they lose reps from fundamentals or just because they reasonable get beat by someone going pro in football while most of our players go pro in something besides football.

 

[bballcat4]

Many/most top P4 schools have a transfer starting QB. Ga’s starting QB is going to be a top 10 NFL pick, so the BG transfer was a natural transfer.

QB’s on their 3rd P4 school would make me nervous. I can understand most 1st transfers, but going to a 3rd school (unless each school is an upgrade in programs) is usually a reflection of talent or inability to be coached.

I agree that having a transfer QB is roulette! But, I do believe our staff’s greatest strength is their ability to identify talent that fits our systems. One of the things that concerns me about BV is the fact that Coen recruited him and most OCs want to recruit their own QB.

I hope the BV/OC marriage works out for the player and our program. Would love for him to excel for 2 years while one of our young QB’s develops in the system. Very few talented QBs will stay in the programs more than 2 years unless they win the starting job.

 

[gamecockcat]

If I'm an FSU fan today, here's some takeaways:
1. We lost a ton on defense and it shows
2. Very disappointed in both lines as neither exerted its will against Ga Tech
3. DJ is DJ - not a difference maker on a team that seemingly desperately needs some difference makers
4. Ga Tech may be significantly better than originally thought. BUT...no way should a program like FSU with a ton of built-in advantages plus coming off a huge year get outphysicaled at the LOS and not show any push by either line. Plus, it looks like FSU is sorely missing dynamic playmakers which would make me think, 'How can that happen to FSU in the heart of some of the most fertile recruiting areas in the nation?'
5. To the OP's point, relying on transfers to make or break a season is an inexact science. Sometimes, guys are not playing at their current school because they're just not good enough (see many of UK's transfers who've had very lackluster production at the new school). We've had very good luck with the portal, for the most part, but we also don't restock half the squad with transfers - we are very selective and bring someone on to fill a specific need. Doesn't always work to perfection but we've done better than most by being selective, imo.

 

[RocknRollCats]

I also question the FSU S&C program. They neither look as thick nor as fit as Kentucky's players.

The left DE looked like a skinny freshman and got repeatedly sealed inside on plays that were either designed to go outside or bounced outside.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I also question the FSU S&C program. They neither look as thick nor as fit as Kentucky's players.

The left DE looked like a skinny freshman and got repeatedly sealed inside on plays that were either designed to go outside or bounced outside.

This 100%, both of their lines looked to be soft and not in condition. The left DE is a portal kid from UGA, Marvin Jones Jr. His dad was an AA at FSU. Kid wouldn't push himself in the weight room and was thrilled with contact, he got very few snaps as a true frosh at UGA. After a heart to heart with Kirby about his effort he decided FSU was a better option for him, former 5* who was clearly overrated. Not the first and won't be the last.

On a little different note, FSU reminded me of a Mark Richt team, tried to rely on finesse and execution instead of forcing the opponent to play physical.

 

[cbrwalt]

Maybe the portal has made GaTech a pretty good team

 

[YaketySax]

Maybe the portal has made GaTech a pretty good team

Yeah it can swing both ways is my thinking

 

[Cobb4uk]

I also question the FSU S&C program. They neither look as thick nor as fit as Kentucky's players.

The left DE looked like a skinny freshman and got repeatedly sealed inside on plays that were either designed to go outside or bounced outside.

Totally agree. A top 10 team just doesn't get pushed around the way GT pushed them around. Their tackling was awful and they allowed about 6 yards a carry. They made GT's offensive line look great. I really don't think they understand how tough the SEC is day in day out. The SEC will make them a middle of the road, maybe, conference team if they ever become a member.

 

[Deeeefense]

I wouldn't connect the portal too much for this FSU loss. FSU was a bit over ranked IMO which seems to be a habit with the media and ACC teams. Both FSU and GTech would be around mid-tier SEC teams at best.

Portal players are much lower risk than recruited players IMO as most have some college film, and additional years of coaching and maturity under their belt. Just anecdotally it seems about half of HS recruits either fall short of the mark, transfer or quit.