FSU’s Struggle Reinforces Problem Relying on Transfer Portal

[YaketySax]

FSU may be fine by the end of the season. One game may not be who they are, but why should we feel differently since they took so may transfers this off-season?

UK has had this issue too with portal roulette. Some years (2021) you hit a home run. Other years (2022) you struggle. Alabama’s second string may only seem good because they suit up for Bama not because they can start for a Top 10 preseason team.

I can’t help but apply this to Kentucky and the offensive transfers at QB, RB, and OG and OT. They may be great or they may not be much more than average which is a disadvantage against our schedule.

UK’s defense does have transfers but was mostly built through old fashioned recruit and develop, and it’s also veteran, so we have a consensus on the floor for that side of the ball.

What’s the floor (or ceiling) for the offense. Who knows? We can all guess. Here are my indicators fwiw…

Week 1 - skill players win 80% of their match ups 1v1in space against the CUSA. Brock displays good accuracy. Not looking for points, Stoops won’t try and kill them or show too much of the playbook, but skill and talent domination. SMiss could do everything right on a play, but UK out-athletes them to overcome that in other words.

Week 2 - win by 10+ points, put up at least 350 total yards of offense, or put up 6.5 yards per play. Win at least 60% of 1v1 reps.

Week 3 - points not important vs an elite defense. Guys just aren’t going to get routinely open or win their share of 1v1 in space matchups. So, will watch how they compete. Do they lose reps from fundamentals or just because they reasonable get beat by someone going pro in football while most of our players go pro in something besides football.

 

[bballcat4]

Many/most top P4 schools have a transfer starting QB. Ga’s starting QB is going to be a top 10 NFL pick, so the BG transfer was a natural transfer.

QB’s on their 3rd P4 school would make me nervous. I can understand most 1st transfers, but going to a 3rd school (unless each school is an upgrade in programs) is usually a reflection of talent or inability to be coached.

I agree that having a transfer QB is roulette! But, I do believe our staff’s greatest strength is their ability to identify talent that fits our systems. One of the things that concerns me about BW is the fact that Coen recruited him and most OCs want to recruit their own QB.

I hope the BW/OC marriage works out for the player and our program. Would love for him to excel for 2 years while one of our young QB’s develops in the system. Very few talented QBs will stay in the programs more than 2 years unless they win the starting job.

 

[gamecockcat]

If I'm an FSU fan today, here's some takeaways:
1. We lost a ton on defense and it shows
2. Very disappointed in both lines as neither exerted its will against Ga Tech
3. DJ is DJ - not a difference maker on a team that seemingly desperately needs some difference makers
4. Ga Tech may be significantly better than originally thought. BUT...no way should a program like FSU with a ton of built-in advantages plus coming off a huge year get outphysicaled at the LOS and not show any push by either line. Plus, it looks like FSU is sorely missing dynamic playmakers which would make me think, 'How can that happen to FSU in the heart of some of the most fertile recruiting areas in the nation?'
5. To the OP's point, relying on transfers to make or break a season is an inexact science. Sometimes, guys are not playing at their current school because they're just not good enough (see many of UK's transfers who've had very lackluster production at the new school). We've had very good luck with the portal, for the most part, but we also don't restock half the squad with transfers - we are very selective and bring someone on to fill a specific need. Doesn't always work to perfection but we've done better than most by being selective, imo.