Can Cal win and get to a FF

[fatguy87]

If we win on Saturday, a sizable portion of the fan base will convince themselves that we will win out or lose just 1 or 2 games before the NCAA tournament en route to a 2 seed

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Cal can’t even make the final four of the SEC tournament.

He might get lucky this year

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You did the same thing all the calbois do.

You left out the part where our starting point guard was ostensibly kicked off the team.

You mean the PG who was on the decline ever since the UNC game, never to be heard from again? And we'd be running with his replacement, who is currently making millions in the NBA as a guard?

Yeah it's not hard to theorize that IQ would have been a perfectly reasonable replacement for Hagans..

Well, not hard for some people.

Maybe if you stopped making dozens of Cal threads, obsessing over him, you'd realize the type of player IQ is.

 

[Big Foot 275]

Not a chance unless the players start playing defense at a much higher level. Cal would need to
suddenly become the Cal of the first 7 years.
If those two things happen I think it could accurately be described as a miracle.

 

[yoshukai]

Yes.

Let's say Dilly has a Caleb Love type tournament. Then UK could advance to the FF. Maybe even better.

Now the real question is can Cal win at a level expected at the University of Kentucky and consistently get to the EE and FF?

No and isn't particularly close. Cal is sub 70 percent the last few years. That is below the UK standard.

So, if the first thing happens please spare us about how wrong we all were. Because until Cal can win at a consistent level expected, he is not the right man for the job.

He had 2 years where the bracket fell apart and completely opened up for him . And he lost to a Bruce Weber coached Kansas St. team and an Auburn team playing without their best player. So ….HELL no he can’t get to another final four.

 

[yes_takeaside]

Yes.

Let's say Dilly has a Caleb Love type tournament. Then UK could advance to the FF. Maybe even better.

Now the real question is can Cal win at a level expected at the University of Kentucky and consistently get to the EE and FF?

No and isn't particularly close. Cal is sub 70 percent the last few years. That is below the UK standard.

So, if the first thing happens please spare us about how wrong we all were. Because until Cal can win at a consistent level expected, he is not the right man for the job.

If Dilly gets on a roll it won’t be a long one since he will be benched as soon as it starts.

 

[Mike-McD]

You mean the PG who was on the decline ever since the UNC game, never to be heard from again? And we'd be running with his replacement, who is currently making millions in the NBA as a guard?

Yeah it's not hard to theorize that IQ would have been a perfectly reasonable replacement for Hagans..

Well, not hard for some people.

Maybe if you stopped making dozens of Cal threads, obsessing over him, you'd realize the type of player IQ is.

You JUST laid out this long spiel detailing how awesome our team was, how many games we had won, etc. and now you want to discredit it by saying our PG wasn't that good? LOL What a joke. You can't have the "we were so good all season" without including Hagans in that mix. And how were we surging at the end of the season with Hagans declining? And IQ was a 2 guard not a PG. You really believe that we could have gone to the FINAL FOUR with a 2 guard as our PG?

Do you know ANYTHING about basketball?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You JUST laid out this long spiel detailing how awesome our team was, how many games we had won, etc. and now you want to discredit it by saying our PG wasn't that good? LOL What a joke. You can't have the "we were so good all season" without including Hagans in that mix. And how were we surging at the end of the season with Hagans declining? And IQ was a 2 guard not a PG. You really believe that we could have gone to the FINAL FOUR with a 2 guard as our PG?

Do you know ANYTHING about basketball?

Hagans was regressing, this entire forum was talking about it. Most wanted to give IQ more time at PG just in case we couldn't rely on Hagans come March.

IQ had to run the point plenty of times due to injury, foul trouble, breaks for Hagans.. and he mostly did great. In some ways better and more reliable than Hagans.

Weird, kind of like Shep this year huh?. Kind of like the notion that being a combo guard means you still have plenty of PG ability, and that someone with pure basketball ability (Shep and IQ) might be better running the offense than guys who rely on just athleticism (Hagans and DJ)?

Hagans was the type of player, in my mind, who wasn't quite strong enough for the NCAAT, and if he wasn't fully dialed in, could have caused us to get upset.

But what do I know I'm just a calbooiiiiii.. lmfao. So cringey.

 

[Mike-McD]

Hagans was regressing, this entire forum was talking about it. Most wanted to give IQ more time at PG just in case we couldn't rely on Hagans come March.

IQ had to run the point plenty of times due to injury, foul trouble, breaks for Hagans.. and he mostly did great. In some ways better and more reliable than Hagans.

Weird, kind of like Shep this year huh?. Kind of like the notion that being a combo guard means you still have plenty of PG ability, and that someone with pure basketball ability (Shep and IQ) might be better running the offense than guys who rely on just athleticism (Hagans and DJ)?

Hagans was the type of player, in my mind, who wasn't quite strong enough for the NCAAT, and if he wasn't fully dialed in, could have caused us to get upset.

But what do I know I'm just a calbooiiiiii.. lmfao. So cringey.

You're trying to make this ethereal case that our SHOOTING guard would have led us to a FINAL FOUR based on a few times where he ran the point due to injury or substitutions. Not to mention we would be shorthanded without Hagans, and the dynamic of turmoil created by his absence (which we will never know the extent of because Cal is so mysterious about it), so that scenario had not been played out over even a six game period. Nice try. And you still haven't explained how we were so "good" all year when Hagans was so bad.

And don't try to compare Shep to IQ. You can try to diminish him by calling him a combo guard, but Shep is much more of a PG than IQ was. Remind me...what position does IQ play today?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You're trying to make this ethereal case that our SHOOTING guard would have led us to a FINAL FOUR based on a few times where he ran the point due to injury or substitutions. Not to mention we would be shorthanded without Hagans, and the dynamic of turmoil created by his absence (which we will never know the extent of because Cal is so mysterious about it), so that scenario had not been played out over even a six game period. Nice try. And you still haven't explained how we were so "good" all year when Hagans was so bad.

And don't try to compare Shep to IQ. You can try to diminish him by calling him a combo guard, but Shep is much more of a PG than IQ was. Remind me...what position does IQ play today?

I never said they were going to the F4, so pay closer attention. They were likely on track for an elite 8. Based on seeding.

Hagans was good "enough" for mostly the first half of the year. But go look at the final 15 games. He wasn't handling the game well, whether it was mentally, physically or both. He was barely averaging 10pts a game over that stretch with almost a 1:1 AtoTO ratio. His shooting percentages dropped across the board, he was also pretty foul prone. He regressed, it's that simple, at a time when he should be improving and at a time when the tournament was just a week away.

The fact is players can still move around if needed, and IQ played the point for us MANY times that year. To be a combo guard out of HS and a shooting guard in the NBA, means you have to have damn near elite GUARD skills. You still have to move the ball, you still have to defend guards, you still need to drive..

 

[Mike-McD]

I never said they were going to the F4, so pay closer attention. They were likely on track for an elite 8. Based on seeding.

Hagans was good "enough" for mostly the first half of the year. But go look at the final 15 games. He wasn't handling the game well, whether it was mentally, physically or both. He was barely averaging 10pts a game over that stretch with almost a 1:1 AtoTO ratio. His shooting percentages dropped across the board, he was also pretty foul prone. He regressed, it's that simple, at a time when he should be improving and at a time when the tournament was just a week away.

The fact is players can still move around if needed, and IQ played the point for us MANY times that year. To be a combo guard out of HS and a shooting guard in the NBA, means you have to have damn near elite GUARD skills. You still have to move the ball, you still have to defend guards, you still need to drive..

IQ had not played point for any considerable length of time, and certainly not enough to demonstrate that he could do it in a tournament in several consecutive games. And we're talking about IQ THEN, not NOW. You still haven't made a case that a shorthanded team would have made a deep run into the tournament without its starting point guard. We were good, but we weren't dominant.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

IQ had not played point for any considerable length of time, and certainly not enough to demonstrate that he could do it in a tournament in several consecutive games. And we're talking about IQ THEN, not NOW. You still haven't made a case that a shorthanded team would have made a deep run into the tournament without its starting point guard. We were good, but we weren't dominant.

Yes, he did lol. Hagans was so foul prone he not only was getting INTO foul trouble but fouled out of like 5 or 6 games.. as a guard no less lol. IQ was also a PG throughout his entire HS career, it was just the two years at UK that he was moved to being a combo guard.

IQ might not have given us the ceiling that Hagans could, IF Hagans gave a great and locked in performance. But IQ was much more poised and steady. The short handed factor is really the only downside to Hagans being out, because god forbid IQ gets hurt. But I'm still willing to roll those dice. Hagans was a real liability and I remember distinctly thinking he could cause us to bow out in the 1st round.

You're quite new here, go back and check these forums on Hagans, most here were ready for Cal to start giving IQ more and more play at PG to compensate for a very erratic Hagans.

 

[Mike-McD]

Yes, he did lol. Hagans was so foul prone he not only was getting INTO foul trouble but fouled out of like 5 or 6 games.. as a guard no less lol. IQ was also a PG throughout his entire HS career, it was just the two years at UK that he was moved to being a combo guard.

IQ might not have given us the ceiling that Hagans could, IF Hagans gave a great and locked in performance. But IQ was much more poised and steady. The short handed factor is really the only downside to Hagans being out, because god forbid IQ gets hurt. But I'm still willing to roll those dice. Hagans was a real liability and I remember distinctly thinking he could cause us to bow out in the 1st round.

You're quite new here, go back and check these forums on Hagans, most here were ready for Cal to start giving IQ more and more play at PG to compensate for a very erratic Hagans.

Don't make this personal. I watched all those games and I read all those threads. I wasn't happy with Hagans either, but your logic is so tortured it doesn't make sense. You want to make the case that despite Hagans self destructing, our team was surging, and without him we would have gone on a run. That was possible but very unlikely. Any major upheaval to a roster right before the tournament almost never ends with good results. We didn't have any transcendent players on that team, just very good ones in Maxey, IQ, and Richards. We likely would have been knocked out in the SS, or worse.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Don't make this personal. I watched all those games and I read all those threads. I wasn't happy with Hagans either, but your logic is so tortured it doesn't make sense. You want to make the case that despite Hagans self destructing, our team was surging, and without him we would have gone on a run. That was possible but very unlikely. Any major upheaval to a roster right before the tournament almost never ends with good results. We didn't have any transcendent players on that team, just very good ones in Maxey, IQ, and Richards. We likely would have been knocked out in the SS, or worse.

Bruh, you go around calling people "calbois".. you opened this argument with personal attacks you clown.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I think it certainly can be debated one way or the other. We were only 29th in Kenpom that year. I mean we are currently 25th this season and I'm not sure anyone thinks we are currently in the conversation.

The four seed comes back Bracket Matrix

https://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2020.html

I think we could split it and say probably a 3 seed.

It may have been a borderline team. Given that Vegas lines typically match Kenpom you are talking about quite a bit of teams we wouldn't have been favored on that year. Then again, had the conference tournament played out and we won it, who knows maybe some of those underdog games we become favorites in.

I think tho the overall point is we've kind of been on this rollarcoaster past few years where we have been so up and down.

I try to be realistic with expectations here. The landscape of college basketball has changed. We'd all like UK to completely dominate but I don't see a scenario where that happens anymore regardless who is coaching this team. If I look at KP right now and I look at 4,6, and 7 I see Auburn, UT and Alabama respectfully. It's just not realistic to think that UK is going to dominate in a league with three other teams that are very much in the conversation this season.

So the goal is........be in that conversation as much as possible. That's the only way this turns into final fours/titles.

Unless you are Uconn which can just seem to pop up whenever and end up winning a title lol

You know going back and looking at it, before Evansville we were 2nd. We dropped to 5th after that game. Despite winning the next six, we dropped to 8th. After the Utah game, it was down to 15th. We kind of hovered there until conference play. Despite going 14-3 in conference we fell. We reached as low as 37th on Feb 1st after we lost to Auburn. Then reeled off eight straight wins to get around where we ended up ranked.

It was really the fact we didn't win in the SEC by a large margin. We only outscored our SEC opponents by 0.08 points per possession that season. Which is "good" but not "great".

Just out of curiosity on Bartovik I filered from Jan 1 2020 to the end of that season and here's what I see:
Kentucky 25th 16-3 overall 21st offense/52nd defense.

Which is very much on line with the 24th/52nd I see on Kenpom for the entire season.

Maybe we make a run that year but the metrics certainly wasn't showing that.

Good points. I don't know how I feel about margin of victory being much of a factor. Some coaches take their foot off the gas, and we know Cal does this (we certainly hear about it every game thread lol). To me, a 8 pt comfortable win isn't much different than a 15 pt win.

Despite those drops in KP, it still seems we were playing well enough to move from 37th up 29th over those last 8 STRAIGHT wins. I have to believe that we started to figure things out if our OVERALL rankings improved. Seems like a team similar to 2011 and 2014 that really struggled to get consistency going (even if we won more games in 2020), where our February/March games were more consistent than what we were playing in December.

We still have the SECT, We had just beat Florida, AT Florida, who was in the KP 30s WITHOUT ASHTON HAGANS HOLY SHIT! HOW DID WE DO IT?!

I think the betting odds would have been 2 wins in the SECT, probably lose in the SECT Final, and likely get an Elite 8.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Good points. I don't know how I feel about margin of victory being much of a factor. Some coaches take their foot off the gas, and we know Cal does this (we certainly hear about it every game thread lol). To me, a 8 pt comfortable win isn't much different than a 15 pt win.

Despite those drops in KP, it still seems we were playing well enough to move from 37th up 29th over those last 8 STRAIGHT wins. I have to believe that we started to figure things out if our OVERALL rankings improved. Seems like a team similar to 2011 and 2014 that really struggled to get consistency going (even if we won more games in 2020), where our February/March games were more consistent than what we were playing in December.

We still have the SECT, We had just beat Florida, AT Florida, who was in the KP 30s WITHOUT ASHTON HAGANS HOLY SHIT! HOW DID WE DO IT?!

I think the betting odds would have been 2 wins in the SECT, probably lose in the SECT Final, and likely get an Elite 8.

Oh yeah they were definitely trending in the right direction and if we learned anything here during Cal's time it's that most of the seasons the teams are playing a lot better in March than in November. I mean half our final fours under Cal came from 4 and 8 seed lines so that's why I would hesitate to say we couldn't do the same in 2020. I think my feeling is when people say in the conversation they mean that 6 to 8 team group that most of the time the champion comes from. We were trending in that direction. I'm not sure we were quite there yet tho. But yeah there was no doubt they could have had a 2011/2014 type run.

I am a big believer in MOV. You just need to look at who does end up winning the title in most seasons and what they do all year long. Good teams blow teams out. This season you have an Auburn team that beats a decent South Carolina team by 40 or an Alabama team by 18. Or that same Alabama turns around and beats Miss St by 32 or South Carolina by 27. You got Tenn winning by 20 vs Alabama or 19 vs Florida. It's no shock that these teams are ranked 4th, 6th and 7th in KP, going to get good seeds and probably make a run here.

I think while we do take our foot off the gas, we also usually slow the pace down in doing so. So even through we aren't scoring as much, there's normally less possessions as well keeping the points per possession similar. There's also I know with KP diminishing returns. Like a 20 pt win instead of a 10 pt win is more than the difference between say a 30 point win and a 20 point win (not sure the exact figures). At some point the difference is nil between say winning by 40 or 50.

Unfortunately, we will never know for sure how that 2020 season ends.

 

[KYCAT78]

Yes.

Let's say Dilly has a Caleb Love type tournament. Then UK could advance to the FF. Maybe even better.

Now the real question is can Cal win at a level expected at the University of Kentucky and consistently get to the EE and FF?

No and isn't particularly close. Cal is sub 70 percent the last few years. That is below the UK standard.

So, if the first thing happens please spare us about how wrong we all were. Because until Cal can win at a consistent level expected, he is not the right man for the job.

Maybe as a spectator.

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

At this point I don’t care. He doesn’t care for the program. After the Sharpe fiasco, the Kneeling, insulting the fans (Basketball Bennies, You guys are crazy) IDGAF what he does until he finally leaves. He’s an asshole and he’s tearing down the program for/by his own legacy prioritizing putting kids in the League.

 

[JonathanW]

Can he? Of course he can, done it before.
Will he? I hate to say it, but seriously doubt it.
For those that say he only got there because of the players he had. Yeah. That’s pretty much true with most teams that make it. These are capable of making such a run. But will he pull the right strings to get their best? Probably not.