Breaking down the Cats and Gators

[JackYoungblood]

Bad post. We scored more than 20 on them last year and our offense is better and UFs defense looks suspect still.

We will see....

 

[dingyibvs]

Bad post. We scored more than 20 on them last year and our offense is better and UFs defense looks suspect still.

Score was 3-3 at halftime and 20-20 at the end of regulation.

 

[3kidsandme]

I didnt say they could shut them down -- just stating that big plays will be hard to come by if there is no run game....

UK has one of the fastest wr in college football in Jeff Badet if UF plans on playing press coverage like they did against ecu UF better pray towles is off. Go back and watch Badet 40 yarder against usc the dude is a 4.3 guy

 

[JackYoungblood]

UK has one of the fastest wr in college football in Jeff Badet if UF plans on playing press coverage like they did against ecu UF better pray towles is off. Go back and watch Badet 40 yarder against usc the dude is a 4.3 guy

best i can find on him is 4.41 but thats still pretty damn fast.....

like i said we will see

 

[JHB4UK]

All i know is that UF will bring pressure and a lot of it, that seems to be Geoff Collins MO.

We know

against his Miss St D last season we gashed him for 31 points & 504 yards. and that was with him at the helm of a senior dominated defense he constructed for 4 years, Sat will be his 3rd game ever with this group.

 

[rudd1]

-my brother is a huge Rams fan. Idolized Youngblood. Very, very bad mother****** .

 

[MakersKnight]

For the better part of three decades, Kentucky/Florida has been as one sided a series as there's been in all of sports. The Cats haven't beaten the Gators on the gridiron since 1986. For a good portion of last years game, it looked like the streak might end. Kentucky put together one of its best performances of the Stoops era but fell in overtime. The biggest reason UK missed out on a postseason opportunity last year was their inability to finish in close games (Florida, Mississippi State, Louisville). While two games (this year) isn't necessarily evidence that the "finishing" problem is fixed, it's certainly headed in the right direction. Both Louisiana and South Carolina had the football with a chance to win late. UK's defense came up big both times. Then the offense did the same (TD drive vs. ULL; ran out the final 4:00+ at SC). To win this weekend, the Cats will probably have to come up big late yet again. The Gators are coming off a less than inspiring 31-24 win over East Carolina. Like UK. Florida had to survive a late scare. Both the Cats and Gators are flawed but improving football teams. Should be another tight game.

Line: Kentucky +4.5

Series: Florida leads 48-17
Last Meeting (2014 at the Swamp): Florida 36 Kentucky 30 3OT
Last UK win (1986 in Lexington): Kentucky 10 Florida 3

TV/Game time: SEC Network, 7:30 Eastern

Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Advantage Kentucky
In 2014, UK took one of the nations youngest offensive units to the Swamp. The results were mixed. Kentucky put up 20 points in regulation (and over 400 yards of total offense), but turned the ball over three very big times. Towles had an inconsistent night, tossing 3 TD's and 3 INT's. He finished with 369 yards through the air. UK struggled to run the football (2.5 ypc on 33 attempts). Looking at this years matchup, we can probably expect a lot of the same. Kentucky's offense should be able to throw with consistent success, but running the football will be a chore. This will be the best d-line Kentucky has faced thus far. While the Cats o-line has improved, they'll struggle on occasion against the UF d-front (especially in the run game). The Gators are active up front (double digit TFL last weekend against ECU). That will present a challenge for Shannon Dawson and his commitment to the run. UK will REALLY need to throw with success on first down. The Gators have one of the elite CB's in college football, (Hargreaves), but he's questionable this weekend (leg injury). Without him, UF struggled at times to slow ECU's passing game. The Pirates passed for 346 yards. Surprisingly, Florida compiled only three sacks despite ECU dropping back to pass around 60 times. UK's pass protection will be the key to this matchup. Kentucky isn't going to run the ball down UF's throat. The passing game will be critical. UK has the skill guys to move the football. Kentucky will do as much as the pass protection allows. I think the UK big uglies get the job done more often than not.

Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Florida
The Gators were run heavy against the Pirates. They were also pretty effective, running for 4.4 ypc on 38 attempts. Both QB's (Grier and Harris) played against ECU. Allegedly, they'll both play this weekend. Grier is listed #1 on the depth chart. Against ECU, he completed 10-17 passes. The thing about this offense that stands out to me is how they block. McElwain does a good job of moving people around to create mismatches within the blocking scheme for each play. It isn't necessarily complex, but against young LB's, there will be times when UK simply gets outnumbered at the point of attack. This would be a REALLY good week to get Flannigan back (and thankfully, the Cats do get Hatcher back). The Gators OL doesn't look anything close to dominant, so UK should be able to hold their own up front. I don't think the Gators are loaded with playmakers (at least not with what we're used to seeing from Florida) at the skill spots, but they do have some very good athletes than can kill you in space (then again, so do most teams). Overall, this isn't necessarily a poor matchup for Kentucky, but the Gators running game is going to be a challenge. UK looks to be much improved against the run, however. Best guess for this weekend, both units enjoy some success. For Kentucky, when Florida does drive the football, we just have to hope for FG attempts. UK was able to force FG attempts last weekend, and it made the difference.

Special Teams: Slight Advantage Kentucky
I give UK the edge because of K. MacGinnis has made 13 of his last 14 FG attempts. The Gators Austin Hardin has made just 10 of his last 15. Both teams are dangerous in the return game. One concern for UK, the punting (Foster) was poor at SC. Not sure if those short kicks were intentional or not.

Florida will win if...they're able to run the football consistently and pressure Towles. Turnovers are always important in close matchups, so the Gators (like UK) need to take care of the football.

Kentucky will win if...Dawson is able to get this three headed monster(s) at WR (Badet, Johnson, and Baker) the football. If UK is able to find a running game, they'll be in GREAT shape. Defensively, replicate the SC performance (you can allow yards, but not points).

Most important thing for Kentucky...first down. Staying out of 3rd and long is always important, but especially so if you're playing against a good d-line. Plays that require 6-7 blockers or 5 step drop type time will be tough have success with against the Gators. Defensively, get UF off schedule. If their offense is in 3rd and short all night long, well, it will be a long night for UK.

Prediction...Kentucky 27 Florida 23...it will be another stomach churner for Mark Stoops and Big Blue nation. This is as good a matchup as UK has had with Florida in forever. This one will probably come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes (turnovers, game changing special teams plays, etc...). I like the Cats because the game is in Lexington and because the fans will give UK a rare "true" homefield edge. Also, I'm starting to really believe in this team. The defense has experience. The offense has a boatload of talent. And there's a little depth here and there.

Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (UK 40-33)
Kentucky 34 South Carolina 31 (UK 26-22)

GBB!!!

Thanks

I think the under developed storyline is that this is bother head coach's and quarterback's 1st SEC game and 1st SSC road game. It's going to be a true road SEC atmosphere at commonwealth. I think that causes a lot of confusion and miscommunication for a new staff implementing a new system.

 

[Bigblueforever]

I think key for Kentucky to win is to stop Florida on big plays on 3rd down.
That is what killed us last year. Ky 27 Florida 21

 

[MJWilliamson]

South Carolina is the power 5 team, you dunce.

Your quote said "2 P5 teams"......dunce

"We stopped doing something that was clearly working because we needed to practice passing the football"
May be the worst excuse I've heard. You had 41 rushing attempts in that game. Hardly looks like you all stopped running to work on your passing game, especially against a defense that would provide very little for practice.

Whatever. Our last few scoring drives were via the passing game. Because Muschamp refused to do that, we needed to work on it

. Your RB should get some solid DDR practice in.

We shall wee

 

[MJWilliamson]

Off topic just a bit, but you're obviously a Gator fan and yet your screen name is a guy who played at Florida State. What's up with that?

er...Jack Youngblood played for Florida

 

[MJWilliamson]

The Gators have allowed 482 passing yards in two games, which ranks 89th in the country. Add in the fact that they’ve only played New Mexico State (FPI ranking #121) and East Carolina (FPI ranking #82) and Patrick Towles should be licking his chops.

OK. We shall see.

 

[Rhavicc]

Your quote said "2 P5 teams"......dunce

Lol, you had me confused about my own quote. When I made that statement earlier, and said "they've played 2 P5 teams", I meant that South Carolina (the team that you said was worse than ECU in the post before) has played 2 P5 teams. Obviously they're going to look less impressive than Florida. Florida's been munching on cupcakes for the past 2 weeks, South Carolina has actually played teams. Credit them, they gave up a lot of total yards, but they held a team that was one of the best scoring offenses in the country past season, as well as one of the best red zone offenses in 2014 (and it's virtually the same personnel, it returns 10 starters), to 1 TD.

Whatever. Our last few scoring drives were via the passing game. Because Muschamp refused to do that, we needed to work on it

Right lol. Again, silly excuse.

We shall wee

See*

 

[ukalum1988]

er...Jack Youngblood played for Florida

So I've been told.

 

[Onomatopoeia]

I hope we aren't just being too overconfident. UF is still LOADED with talent.

Unfortunately I cant go with my heart, I think UF squeaks one out by 4

 

[MJWilliamson]

So far so good for the Orange and Blue. Lots of football to be played

 

[brianpoe]

So far so good for the Orange and Blue. Lots of football to be played

Not now MJ, you had a lucky TD drop and BS flag.

Our oline is going for their brownie patches but hopefully we have a couple of kids who will suck it up and catch a pass, block someone and tackle the damn QB.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Good game. Both teams played hard. Both teams were inept on offense and both played decent defense.

Good luck the rest of the way, particular against UT and UGA

 

[JackYoungblood]

Good game....

 

[footballfanatic77]

I would disagree with the OPs contention that Kentucky would have the advantage defensively and Florida that advantage offensively, but now that the game is over the OP obviously knows that. Going into this game it was clear that Florida had the better defense, but I assumed Kentucky would have the better offense. Florida did indeed have the better defense, unfortunately they also seemed to have the better offense.

 

[instaGATOR]

I think UK will get the running game going but even without it 20 points is not a tall order. We scored 20 last year. Almost had 20 in the 3rd quarter alone. UK's offense is vastly improved over last year. I know UF has a great secondary but UK has the size and speed to beat them. And UK isn't dependent on one guy. There are 5 or 6 receivers that you have to worry about so you can't just lock down our best receiver with Hargreaves. I'll be surprised if UK scores less than 30. I would actually be surprised of both teams aren't over 30.

UF's Secondary with their Position Rankings coming out of HS:

#3 CB/Nic Brian Poole 5-10 211 Sr 3L ***** Bradenton
#1 CB Vernon Hargreaves III 5-11 199 Jr 2L ***** Tampa - (1 Towles Int)
#3 CB Jalen Tabor 6-0 191 So 1L ***** Washington, DC
#14 CB/Nic Quincy Wilson 6-1 209 So 1L **** Fort Lauderdale - (1 Towels Int)

#8 SS Marcus Maye 6-0 207 rsJr 2L **** Melbourne
#6 FS Keanu Neal 6-1 216 Jr 2L **** Bushnell
#11 FS/Nic Nick Washington 6-0 195 rsSo 2L **** Jacksonville
#7 SS Marcell Harris 6-1 211 rsSo 1L **** Orlando
#9 FS/Nic Duke Dawson 5-10 204 So 1L **** Cross City

That's 3 *****'s and the other 6 are all top rated ****'s. (1-3-3-6-7-8-9-11-14)
And all of them are lettermen, but you have 5-6 decent receivers???

Does nobody ever bother to look at a roster before typing?