For the better part of three decades, Kentucky/Florida has been as one sided a series as there's been in all of sports. The Cats haven't beaten the Gators on the gridiron since 1986. For a good portion of last years game, it looked like the streak might end. Kentucky put together one of its best performances of the Stoops era but fell in overtime. The biggest reason UK missed out on a postseason opportunity last year was their inability to finish in close games (Florida, Mississippi State, Louisville). While two games (this year) isn't necessarily evidence that the "finishing" problem is fixed, it's certainly headed in the right direction. Both Louisiana and South Carolina had the football with a chance to win late. UK's defense came up big both times. Then the offense did the same (TD drive vs. ULL; ran out the final 4:00+ at SC). To win this weekend, the Cats will probably have to come up big late yet again. The Gators are coming off a less than inspiring 31-24 win over East Carolina. Like UK. Florida had to survive a late scare. Both the Cats and Gators are flawed but improving football teams. Should be another tight game.
Line: Kentucky +4.5
Series: Florida leads 48-17
Last Meeting (2014 at the Swamp): Florida 36 Kentucky 30 3OT
Last UK win (1986 in Lexington): Kentucky 10 Florida 3
TV/Game time: SEC Network, 7:30 Eastern
Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Advantage Kentucky
In 2014, UK took one of the nations youngest offensive units to the Swamp. The results were mixed. Kentucky put up 20 points in regulation (and over 400 yards of total offense), but turned the ball over three very big times. Towles had an inconsistent night, tossing 3 TD's and 3 INT's. He finished with 369 yards through the air. UK struggled to run the football (2.5 ypc on 33 attempts). Looking at this years matchup, we can probably expect a lot of the same. Kentucky's offense should be able to throw with consistent success, but running the football will be a chore. This will be the best d-line Kentucky has faced thus far. While the Cats o-line has improved, they'll struggle on occasion against the UF d-front (especially in the run game). The Gators are active up front (double digit TFL last weekend against ECU). That will present a challenge for Shannon Dawson and his commitment to the run. UK will REALLY need to throw with success on first down. The Gators have one of the elite CB's in college football, (Hargreaves), but he's questionable this weekend (leg injury). Without him, UF struggled at times to slow ECU's passing game. The Pirates passed for 346 yards. Surprisingly, Florida compiled only three sacks despite ECU dropping back to pass around 60 times. UK's pass protection will be the key to this matchup. Kentucky isn't going to run the ball down UF's throat. The passing game will be critical. UK has the skill guys to move the football. Kentucky will do as much as the pass protection allows. I think the UK big uglies get the job done more often than not.
Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Florida
The Gators were run heavy against the Pirates. They were also pretty effective, running for 4.4 ypc on 38 attempts. Both QB's (Grier and Harris) played against ECU. Allegedly, they'll both play this weekend. Grier is listed #1 on the depth chart. Against ECU, he completed 10-17 passes. The thing about this offense that stands out to me is how they block. McElwain does a good job of moving people around to create mismatches within the blocking scheme for each play. It isn't necessarily complex, but against young LB's, there will be times when UK simply gets outnumbered at the point of attack. This would be a REALLY good week to get Flannigan back (and thankfully, the Cats do get Hatcher back). The Gators OL doesn't look anything close to dominant, so UK should be able to hold their own up front. I don't think the Gators are loaded with playmakers (at least not with what we're used to seeing from Florida) at the skill spots, but they do have some very good athletes than can kill you in space (then again, so do most teams). Overall, this isn't necessarily a poor matchup for Kentucky, but the Gators running game is going to be a challenge. UK looks to be much improved against the run, however. Best guess for this weekend, both units enjoy some success. For Kentucky, when Florida does drive the football, we just have to hope for FG attempts. UK was able to force FG attempts last weekend, and it made the difference.
Special Teams: Slight Advantage Kentucky
I give UK the edge because of K. MacGinnis has made 13 of his last 14 FG attempts. The Gators Austin Hardin has made just 10 of his last 15. Both teams are dangerous in the return game. One concern for UK, the punting (Foster) was poor at SC. Not sure if those short kicks were intentional or not.
Florida will win if...they're able to run the football consistently and pressure Towles. Turnovers are always important in close matchups, so the Gators (like UK) need to take care of the football.
Kentucky will win if...Dawson is able to get this three headed monster(s) at WR (Badet, Johnson, and Baker) the football. If UK is able to find a running game, they'll be in GREAT shape. Defensively, replicate the SC performance (you can allow yards, but not points).
Most important thing for Kentucky...first down. Staying out of 3rd and long is always important, but especially so if you're playing against a good d-line. Plays that require 6-7 blockers or 5 step drop type time will be tough have success with against the Gators. Defensively, get UF off schedule. If their offense is in 3rd and short all night long, well, it will be a long night for UK.
Prediction...Kentucky 27 Florida 23...it will be another stomach churner for Mark Stoops and Big Blue nation. This is as good a matchup as UK has had with Florida in forever. This one will probably come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes (turnovers, game changing special teams plays, etc...). I like the Cats because the game is in Lexington and because the fans will give UK a rare "true" homefield edge. Also, I'm starting to really believe in this team. The defense has experience. The offense has a boatload of talent. And there's a little depth here and there.
Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (UK 40-33)
Kentucky 34 South Carolina 31 (UK 26-22)
GBB!!!
Line: Kentucky +4.5
Series: Florida leads 48-17
Last Meeting (2014 at the Swamp): Florida 36 Kentucky 30 3OT
Last UK win (1986 in Lexington): Kentucky 10 Florida 3
TV/Game time: SEC Network, 7:30 Eastern
Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Advantage Kentucky
In 2014, UK took one of the nations youngest offensive units to the Swamp. The results were mixed. Kentucky put up 20 points in regulation (and over 400 yards of total offense), but turned the ball over three very big times. Towles had an inconsistent night, tossing 3 TD's and 3 INT's. He finished with 369 yards through the air. UK struggled to run the football (2.5 ypc on 33 attempts). Looking at this years matchup, we can probably expect a lot of the same. Kentucky's offense should be able to throw with consistent success, but running the football will be a chore. This will be the best d-line Kentucky has faced thus far. While the Cats o-line has improved, they'll struggle on occasion against the UF d-front (especially in the run game). The Gators are active up front (double digit TFL last weekend against ECU). That will present a challenge for Shannon Dawson and his commitment to the run. UK will REALLY need to throw with success on first down. The Gators have one of the elite CB's in college football, (Hargreaves), but he's questionable this weekend (leg injury). Without him, UF struggled at times to slow ECU's passing game. The Pirates passed for 346 yards. Surprisingly, Florida compiled only three sacks despite ECU dropping back to pass around 60 times. UK's pass protection will be the key to this matchup. Kentucky isn't going to run the ball down UF's throat. The passing game will be critical. UK has the skill guys to move the football. Kentucky will do as much as the pass protection allows. I think the UK big uglies get the job done more often than not.
Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Florida
The Gators were run heavy against the Pirates. They were also pretty effective, running for 4.4 ypc on 38 attempts. Both QB's (Grier and Harris) played against ECU. Allegedly, they'll both play this weekend. Grier is listed #1 on the depth chart. Against ECU, he completed 10-17 passes. The thing about this offense that stands out to me is how they block. McElwain does a good job of moving people around to create mismatches within the blocking scheme for each play. It isn't necessarily complex, but against young LB's, there will be times when UK simply gets outnumbered at the point of attack. This would be a REALLY good week to get Flannigan back (and thankfully, the Cats do get Hatcher back). The Gators OL doesn't look anything close to dominant, so UK should be able to hold their own up front. I don't think the Gators are loaded with playmakers (at least not with what we're used to seeing from Florida) at the skill spots, but they do have some very good athletes than can kill you in space (then again, so do most teams). Overall, this isn't necessarily a poor matchup for Kentucky, but the Gators running game is going to be a challenge. UK looks to be much improved against the run, however. Best guess for this weekend, both units enjoy some success. For Kentucky, when Florida does drive the football, we just have to hope for FG attempts. UK was able to force FG attempts last weekend, and it made the difference.
Special Teams: Slight Advantage Kentucky
I give UK the edge because of K. MacGinnis has made 13 of his last 14 FG attempts. The Gators Austin Hardin has made just 10 of his last 15. Both teams are dangerous in the return game. One concern for UK, the punting (Foster) was poor at SC. Not sure if those short kicks were intentional or not.
Florida will win if...they're able to run the football consistently and pressure Towles. Turnovers are always important in close matchups, so the Gators (like UK) need to take care of the football.
Kentucky will win if...Dawson is able to get this three headed monster(s) at WR (Badet, Johnson, and Baker) the football. If UK is able to find a running game, they'll be in GREAT shape. Defensively, replicate the SC performance (you can allow yards, but not points).
Most important thing for Kentucky...first down. Staying out of 3rd and long is always important, but especially so if you're playing against a good d-line. Plays that require 6-7 blockers or 5 step drop type time will be tough have success with against the Gators. Defensively, get UF off schedule. If their offense is in 3rd and short all night long, well, it will be a long night for UK.
Prediction...Kentucky 27 Florida 23...it will be another stomach churner for Mark Stoops and Big Blue nation. This is as good a matchup as UK has had with Florida in forever. This one will probably come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes (turnovers, game changing special teams plays, etc...). I like the Cats because the game is in Lexington and because the fans will give UK a rare "true" homefield edge. Also, I'm starting to really believe in this team. The defense has experience. The offense has a boatload of talent. And there's a little depth here and there.
Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (UK 40-33)
Kentucky 34 South Carolina 31 (UK 26-22)
GBB!!!
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