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Bracketology 2/20

Creed Bratton

Creed Bratton

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May 31, 2018
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UK is now a 5 seed trending up according to Lunardi. UNC is still a 2 despite losing 4 of their last 9, Kansas is a 2 despite losing 3 of their last 6, Wisconsin is a 5 despite losing 5 of 6 and Clemson is a 5 seed despite losing 7 of their last 13. Of the 4 losses for Kansas 3 were to teams with a combined record of 41-35. Of the 3 UNC losses the opponents combined record was 44-33. Of the 5 Wisconsin losses 4 were to teams with a 55-48 record. Of the 7 losses for Clemson 4 of their losses were to teams with a combined record of 57-46.

I guess I said all of that to say there are only a handful of the top seeds that don't have some pretty bad losses. Even Purdue only has 3 losses but the combined record of the teams they lost to is 51-27. I know we haven't had the best season and have lost some game we shouldn't have but if we can play defense and rebound this team can make some noise.
 
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Creed Bratton said:
UK is now a 5 seed trending up according to Lunardi. UNC is still a 2 despite losing 4 of their last 9, Kansas is a 2 despite losing 3 of their last 6, Wisconsin is a 5 despite losing 5 of 6 and Clemson is a 5 seed despite losing 7 of their last 13. Of the 4 losses for Kansas 3 were to teams with a combined record of 41-35. Of the 3 UNC losses the opponents combined record was 44-33. Of the 5 Wisconsin losses 4 were to teams with a 55-48 record. Of the 7 losses for Clemson 4 of their losses were to teams with a combined record of 57-46.

I guess I said all of that to say there are only a handful of the top seeds that don't have some pretty bad losses. Even Purdue only has 3 losses but the combined record of the teams they lost to is 51-27. I know we haven't had the best season and have lost some game we shouldn't have but if we can play defense and rebound this team can make some noise.
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Bama is a 3 seed and I have no clue how
 
Lunardi has us as the 18th overall team. Bracket Matrix has us at 21. I assume we fall somewhere in that range. Some of the 4 and 5 seeds should lose this week. If we take care of business @ LSU and at home vs Bama, I think we're back in the 4 seed talk.

@MSU won't be a gimme, but we SHOULD win. Then beat Arkansas and Vandy at home. I think we're potentially back on the 3 line by the time we go to Knoxville to play UT.
 
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Cats192 said:
Lunardi has us as the 18th overall team. Bracket Matrix has us at 21. I assume we fall somewhere in that range. Some of the 4 and 5 seeds should lose this week. If we take care of business @ LSU and at home vs Bama, I think we're back in the 4 seed talk.

@MSU won't be a gimme, but we SHOULD win. Then beat Arkansas and Vandy at home. I think we're potentially back on the 3 line by the time we go to Knoxville to play UT.
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I have a feeling that if we're a 4 or 5 seed NO ONE is going to want to face us. The defense is getting better. Ugonna is better able to hold his own, and I think Bradshaw / Z are okay for giving Ugo a rest for a couple of minutes. If Justin continues improving, and Dilly can find a way to calm down, LOOK OUT!
 
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Matchups are going be key this tournament. What teams would you like to avoid? For me it’s UConn and Houston at top. I’d add unc, not because I think they’re a good team but I’d have flashbacks to 17.

I very much want another shot at ku and Dickinson.
 
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WeWant9 said:
Matchups are going be key this tournament. What teams would you like to avoid? For me it’s UConn and Houston at top. I’d add unc, not because I think they’re a good team but I’d have flashbacks to 17.

I very much want another shot at ku and Dickinson.
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For me it is UCONN and Houston for sure. I would also add Iowa State as well. They play a lot like South Carolina and we just don't match up well with that style of play.
 
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Creed Bratton said:
UK is now a 5 seed trending up according to Lunardi. UNC is still a 2 despite losing 4 of their last 9, Kansas is a 2 despite losing 3 of their last 6, Wisconsin is a 5 despite losing 5 of 6 and Clemson is a 5 seed despite losing 7 of their last 13. Of the 4 losses for Kansas 3 were to teams with a combined record of 41-35. Of the 3 UNC losses the opponents combined record was 44-33. Of the 5 Wisconsin losses 4 were to teams with a 55-48 record. Of the 7 losses for Clemson 4 of their losses were to teams with a combined record of 57-46.

I guess I said all of that to say there are only a handful of the top seeds that don't have some pretty bad losses. Even Purdue only has 3 losses but the combined record of the teams they lost to is 51-27. I know we haven't had the best season and have lost some game we shouldn't have but if we can play defense and rebound this team can make some noise.
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You can do this thing with Kentucky too btw:

Kentucky is still a 5, despite losing 3 of their last 6, 4 of their last 8, 5 of their last 11.
 
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WeWant9 said:
Matchups are going be key this tournament. What teams would you like to avoid? For me it’s UConn and Houston at top. I’d add unc, not because I think they’re a good team but I’d have flashbacks to 17.

I very much want another shot at ku and Dickinson.
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UConn, Houston, and any team that is extremely physical and slows the game down. I saw San Diego st as a four seed for uk, that would be a bad matchup for Kentucky
 
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We might as well buckle up for the rest of the year. There are going to be tight games from here on out. Other teams are playing for seeding just like us; some will be playing for their NCAA lives. Depending on our NCAA seeding, we are going to play a decent team in the first round and if we are lucky enough to make it to round 2, it will be a top 25 team. It is one of the most fun, exciting and nerve-racking times of the year for us diehard fans. I am here for it!
 
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St.PatterSoN-54- said:
I want a team that looks like Tarzan and plays like Tarzan.

Cal's rolled out the Jane teams the last few March runs.

Let's go BLUE!
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The last two years UK's guard play has been shaky at best heading into the tourny, some of that was injuries and of course the whole Wheeler debacle. This year at least on paper we have best (most talented) guards in the nation, big difference.
 
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WeWant9 said:
Matchups are going be key this tournament. What teams would you like to avoid? For me it’s UConn and Houston at top. I’d add unc, not because I think they’re a good team but I’d have flashbacks to 17.

I very much want another shot at ku and Dickinson.
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I agree with all of this.

UCONN and Houston worry me the most. Iowa State is probably also a tough 3 seed for us with how good their defense is. UNC has an experienced group with a dynamite guard.

I would love another crack at Kansas. They've struggled away from home in large part due to depth. We make them run to death for 40 minutes, and send the subs out in waves. Press all game. Dickinson won't dominate the paint with Ugonna guarding him.
 
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WeWant9 said:
Matchups are going be key this tournament. What teams would you like to avoid? For me it’s UConn and Houston at top. I’d add unc, not because I think they’re a good team but I’d have flashbacks to 17.

I very much want another shot at ku and Dickinson.
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My thoughts exactly on who I would rather not see until the Final 4, uconn and houston, as well as relishing a rematch w/ kansas
 
Got to love this board when Lunardi says something we like "like you are a 5 seed" everyone is praising him and when he says something we dislike he is an "idiot"
 
The selection committee has stated that recent success or failures do NOT play a role. Mainly record against Quad 1 and 2. Seeding can be hurt by quad 3 and 4 losses.
 
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Bracketville has Kentucky as a 5 seed (#18 overall)

Seeds 1-24Seeds 25-50Seeds 51-68First 4 OUT
1) Connecticut ↑25) Michigan St ↑51) Samford ↓Cincinnati ↑
2) Purdue ↓26) St. Mary’s52) UC-IrvineGonzaga
3) Houston27) Oklahoma53) YaleUtah
4) Arizona28) Texas54) AkronWake Forest ↓
5) No Carolina29) Fla Atlantic ↓55) Charleston ↑Next 4 OUT
6) Tennessee30) Florida56) VermontColorado ↑
7) Marquette31) Wash State ↑57) ColgateVillanova ↑
8) Kansas32) Utah St ↓58) OaklandPittsburgh ↑
9) Alabama33) Virginia ↓59) Morehead StDrake ↑
10) Baylor34) Boise State ↓60) E. Wash
11) Iowa State35) New Mexico ↓61) QuinnipiacNext In Line
12) Duke36) TCU ↑62) High PtOregon
13) S Diego St ↑37) Miss State ↓63) Sam HoustonIowa
14) Illinois38) N’Western64) SouthernJa Madison
15) Auburn ↓39) Nebraska65) Norfolk StRutgers
16) Creighton ↑40) Nevada ↑66) MerrimackKansas State
17) Wisconsin ↓41) Texas AM ↓67) E. KentuckyXavier
18) Kentucky ↑42) Seton Hall ↑68) No DakotaSt. John’s
19) Clemson ↓43) Butler ↓NC State
20) Dayton44) Providence
21) Colorado St ↑45) Ole Miss
22) Texas Tech46) Gr. Canyon
23) So Carolina ↓47) Indiana St
24) BYU48) So Florida ↑
49) McNeese
50) App State


bracketville.wordpress.com

Seed List

Below are two tables that display the current Seed List (at the time of publication) – a tool used for my bracket projects and by the actual Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket…
bracketville.wordpress.com bracketville.wordpress.com
 
These bracketology threads are as useless as a screen door on a submarine. I thought the last 10 games weren't as emphasized as in previous years or are they? Lunardi moves teams around like checkers on a board just so he can stay on ESPN.

It doesn't matter if we win more games going forward than UNC, Duke, KU or Wisconsin( or a half dozen other teams) we will get punished more for losses rewarded less for wins. It just works that way, it always has and will continue to do so.

I hope we win out from here, that probably won't happen, but if it did a 3 seed would be about as good as we could do. Just get to the NCAAT with as good a seed as they will give us and see how many games we can win. The first order of business is to get thru the first week-end(which we haven't done as well as we should) Then we can see who is left and go from there.
 
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WeWant9 said:
Matchups are going be key this tournament. What teams would you like to avoid? For me it’s UConn and Houston at top. I’d add unc, not because I think they’re a good team but I’d have flashbacks to 17.

I very much want another shot at ku and Dickinson.
Click to expand...

I never like trying to beat a team twice. So I'd like to avoid UNC a little and would like a rematch with Kansas for the same reason.
 
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dckala2 said:
Bama a top upset pick this year imo. SEC schedule was a gift.
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I think so too, but their schedule is ranked 4th overall on KP. They must have played some really good teams in the Non Conference.

Ther NCSOS rank is 18, UK's is 176.
 
Cats192 said:
Lunardi has us as the 18th overall team. Bracket Matrix has us at 21. I assume we fall somewhere in that range. Some of the 4 and 5 seeds should lose this week. If we take care of business @ LSU and at home vs Bama, I think we're back in the 4 seed talk.

@MSU won't be a gimme, but we SHOULD win. Then beat Arkansas and Vandy at home. I think we're potentially back on the 3 line by the time we go to Knoxville to play UT.
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Very possible, we just need to keep winning.
 
docholiday51 said:
These bracketology threads are as useless as a screen door on a submarine. I thought the last 10 games weren't as emphasized as in previous years or are they? Lunardi moves teams around like checkers on a board just so he can stay on ESPN.

It doesn't matter if we win more games going forward than UNC, Duke, KU or Wisconsin( or a half dozen other teams) we will get punished more for losses rewarded less for wins. It just works that way, it always has and will continue to do so.

I hope we win out from here, that probably won't happen, but if it did a 3 seed would be about as good as we could do. Just get to the NCAAT with as good a seed as they will give us and see how many games we can win. The first order of business is to get thru the first week-end(which we haven't done as well as we should) Then we can see who is left and go from there.
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It's complete body of work. Nothing is more important that the other.
 
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gharding07 said:
It's complete body of work. Nothing is more important that the other.
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Exactly. A good win is still a good win and a bad loss is still a bad loss. It’s only that today you’re supposed to be in the same boat if you open with a good win and end with a bad loss as if you open with a bad loss and end with a good win. Back in the day it made a big difference what your last ten games were like.
 
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WIS shows you what's wrong with college bb and these idiots making the socalls. They loss 5 of their last 6. And not to strong competition, just like 8 and 18 Michigan. They have lost to multiple teams with losing records. WIS is not good, let alone should they be ahead of us.
 
SDSU lost. They should move down a few spots.
Baylor lost. They may dip into the 4's.
With the win over UCONN, I assume Creighton moves up to the back of the 3 seed line.

Lunardi is the simplest to use because he tweets them out every few days. This morning, he has Baylor at 12 (10 previously), Creighton at 11 (15) previously, SDSU at 16 (13 previously.)

He currently has UK at 18. Wisconsin at 17.

Wisconsin is done for this week, but next week is @ Indiana and vs Illinois. They could lose 1 or both of those.
SDSU has some easy games coming up, but if we win @ LSU and in Rupp vs Bama, we likely jump them.

We're knocking on the door of a 4 seed. Keep winning.
 
Yeap. But keep in mind, the easy schedule will do NO favors for SDSU. I have actually seen teams drop by beating quad 3/4 teams. Where they are positioned, they need quality wins or they will drop like a rock if they was to lose a quad 3/4 game. Even losing a quad 2 will hurt them.
 
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catsfanbgky said:
Yeap. But keep in mind, the easy schedule will do NO favors for SDSU. I have actually seen teams drop by beating quad 3/4 teams. Where they are positioned, they need quality wins or they will drop like a rock if they was to lose a quad 3/4 game. Even losing a quad 2 will hurt them.
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100%.

I think we pass both SDSU and Wisconsin if we win both of our games this week, regardless of what they do. Bama @ Rupp will be a huge win if we can pull it off.

We may be waking up Sunday as a 4 seed, with time to climb higher.
 
The door is open for us to get a 4 Seed, we just need to go get it. I see us having to play UT twice more. in Knoxville and then in Nashville. If we take both, we're a lock for a 4 Seed IMO. A 3 Seed is a longshot, but ya never know.
 
Every year UK fans get upset about Bracketology, only to overlook at the team lost to teams like Evansville, Wilmington, and crappy SEC teams they shouldn't have lost to (like A&M).

UK isn't getting jobbed or screwed over.
 
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BelfryKYCatFanatic said:
The door is open for us to get a 4 Seed, we just need to go get it. I see us having to play UT twice more. in Knoxville and then in Nashville. If we take both, we're a lock for a 4 Seed IMO. A 3 Seed is a longshot, but ya never know.
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Why do you want a 4? With the strength of this year's 1 seeds, you'd rather have a 6.
 
During the UConn game last night they flashed on the ticker at the bottom the top 10 teams by odds makers to win the title. There were 3 SEC teams in the top 10 with UT at 5, Bama at 6 and Auburn at 9. Goes to show how far SEC basketball has come when they have at least 3 teams favored to win before UK.
 
Remember the good old days when we weren't quibbling about the virtues of being a 4, 5, or 6 seed?
 
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