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Aike’s Model Update - 3/5/25

Aike

Aike

All-American
Mar 18, 2002
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Turns out beating up on bad teams is good for your metrics. Who knew?

Setting up an 11 vs 12 showdown to end the season.

1. Auburn 4.26
2. Duke 3.82
3. Tennessee 3.06
4. Houston 2.98
5. Florida 2.93
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Arizona 2.65
8. Iowa St 2.61
9. Texas Tech 2.50
10. Alabama 2.40
11. Missouri 2.29
12. Kentucky 2.21
13. Maryland 2.142
14. Purdue 2.135
15. UConn 2.11
16. Kansas 2.095
17. Clemson 2.092
18. St John’s 1.99
19. Michigan St 1.95
20. Mississippi St 1.954
21. BYU 1.952
22. UCLA 1.91
23. Marquette 1.90
24. Michigan 1.80
25. Mississippi 1.75
27. Louisville 1.61
28. Georgia 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.58
30. Arkansas 1.57
36. Texas A&M 1.32
37. Ohio St 1.31
38. North Carolina 1.28
40. Oklahoma 1.23
48. Texas 1.09
51. Indiana 1.00
74. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47
 
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Aike said:
Turns out beating up on bad teams is good for your metrics. Who knew?

Setting up an 11 vs 12 showdown to end the season.

1. Auburn 4.26
2. Duke 3.82
3. Tennessee 3.06
4. Houston 2.98
5. Florida 2.93
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Arizona 2.65
8. Iowa St 2.61
9. Texas Tech 2.50
10. Alabama 2.40
11. Missouri 2.29
12. Kentucky 2.21
13. Maryland 2.142
14. Purdue 2.135
15. UConn 2.11
16. Kansas 2.095
17. Clemson 2.092
18. St John’s 1.99
19. Michigan St 1.95
20. Mississippi St 1.954
21. BYU 1.952
22. UCLA 1.91
23. Marquette 1.90
24. Michigan 1.80
25. Mississippi 1.75
27. Louisville 1.61
28. Georgia 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.58
30. Arkansas 1.57
36. Texas A&M 1.32
37. Ohio St 1.31
38. North Carolina 1.28
40. Oklahoma 1.23
48. Texas 1.09
51. Indiana 1.00
74. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info!
 
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Aike said:
They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.
Click to expand...
I’m with you. And I agree, I just didn’t know computers knew that also!
 
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Where’s Drake in the model ????
They’re same as Duke 27-3
Beat Vandy @ Vandy
Beat Kansas St @ Kansas St

I don’t see where just because you beat the hell out of trash teams it should catapult you to the top

I don’t see Drake anywhere !!!!

Texas A&M at 36 is a joke

St John’s should be ahead of Duke and they’re 18
 
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BlueCat#8 said:
Now we know how duke is ranked so high. They have beaten up bad teams all year
Click to expand...
That has a lot to do with it, but they are also really good. We have seen life become more difficult for them when they rub into teams with a pulse.
 
yabbadabbadoo said:
Where’s Drake in the model ????
They’re same as Duke 27-3
Beat Vandy @ Vandy
Beat Kansas St @ Kansas St

I don’t see where just because you beat the hell out of trash teams it should catapult you to the top

I don’t see Drake anywhere !!!!

Texas A&M at 36 is a joke

St John’s should be ahead of Duke and they’re 18
Click to expand...
It’s time for you to make your own model. I can’t wait to pick it apart line by line 😁
 
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Aike said:
They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.
Click to expand...
You might have the smartest computer in the world if it can watch the games and make human like decisions such as this! What an accomplishment.
 
Aike said:
Turns out beating up on bad teams is good for your metrics. Who knew?

Setting up an 11 vs 12 showdown to end the season.

1. Auburn 4.26
2. Duke 3.82
3. Tennessee 3.06
4. Houston 2.98
5. Florida 2.93
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Arizona 2.65
8. Iowa St 2.61
9. Texas Tech 2.50
10. Alabama 2.40
11. Missouri 2.29
12. Kentucky 2.21
13. Maryland 2.142
14. Purdue 2.135
15. UConn 2.11
16. Kansas 2.095
17. Clemson 2.092
18. St John’s 1.99
19. Michigan St 1.95
20. Mississippi St 1.954
21. BYU 1.952
22. UCLA 1.91
23. Marquette 1.90
24. Michigan 1.80
25. Mississippi 1.75
27. Louisville 1.61
28. Georgia 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.58
30. Arkansas 1.57
36. Texas A&M 1.32
37. Ohio St 1.31
38. North Carolina 1.28
40. Oklahoma 1.23
48. Texas 1.09
51. Indiana 1.00
74. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47
Click to expand...
Historically, how has your model faired in the tournament?
 
Aike said:
They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.
Click to expand...
I think if Auburn loses (and I think they’re a great team), it will be because they spend too much time flopping and begging for calls.

They could very well cut it down. But man, watching their last 2 games, I’ve never seen a good team beg so much for calls.
 
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If Auburn loses it'll be due to bad player rotation and Broome continuing his mediocre play down the stretch. I think the POY of the "race" was fun for media but it's clearly Flagg's award.

UF is the team I like the best of the SEC teams to get to the Final Four and win it all. They can play several different ways....and have personnel that is very difficult to match up with. They will overwhelm some very good teams in moments of games and their win @Auburn was the most impressive I saw this year based on where they played and just how dominant they were in kicking their ass without their full roster. Last night their win over Bama would've been double digits if it was a neutral site or home game. They were running them off the floor.

The tier of SEC teams I like on neutral sites--UF, Auburn (they have been great away from home most of the year and fantastic in neutral site games), Bama-they schedule tough yearly but think they will come up short due to the Wrightsell/Reid injuries.....and had UK up there but without Robinson....think it'll be tough. But the Cats can make shots/score and that helps in an NCAA environment. What has to be mentioned until it ends? HC has never won a Tournament game. Other SEC teams are very good but rely on a friendly whistle and play a style that can be officiated into a loss (Vols and Aggies) or are one trick ponies (Miss St, Texas). Think Ole Miss/Vandy/OU are well coached and can go Sweet 16 due to that but talent would catch up. I think Arkansas is doing the Cal thing lately-pushing so hard to make the NCAA's and then will become a "trendy" upset pick or for a run...and flame out. UGA is the head scratcher. I could see them winning but Mike White is such a tight ass coach he could piss it away.
 
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Aike said:
I hope they do. Should blitz their first round opponent. Could get a second round scare depending on draw. From Sweet 16 forward no one is safe.
Click to expand...
They’re notorious for jumping out and then letting teams right back in it. That’s gonna bite them in the a$$ come tournament time👌
 
Aike said:
It’s time for you to make your own model. I can’t wait to pick it apart line by line 😁
Click to expand...
Models are kinda dumb IMO.
That’s my whole point.
It’s something to do I guess, which is fine, but on the court is the best model.
Even the seeding for the NCAA is really wishy washy from year to year.
Duke would have somewhere between 5-8 losses had they played in the SEC this year.
 
ralphdaltonfan said:
If Auburn loses it'll be due to bad player rotation and Broome continuing his mediocre play down the stretch. I think the POY of the "race" was fun for media but it's clearly Flagg's award.

UF is the team I like the best of the SEC teams to get to the Final Four and win it all. They can play several different ways....and have personnel that is very difficult to match up with. They will overwhelm some very good teams in moments of games and their win @Auburn was the most impressive I saw this year based on where they played and just how dominant they were in kicking their ass without their full roster. Last night their win over Bama would've been double digits if it was a neutral site or home game. They were running them off the floor.

The tier of SEC teams I like on neutral sites--UF, Auburn (they have been great away from home most of the year and fantastic in neutral site games), Bama-they schedule tough yearly but think they will come up short due to the Wrightsell/Reid injuries.....and had UK up there but without Robinson....think it'll be tough. But the Cats can make shots/score and that helps in an NCAA environment. What has to be mentioned until it ends? HC has never won a Tournament game. Other SEC teams are very good but rely on a friendly whistle and play a style that can be officiated into a loss (Vols and Aggies) or are one trick ponies (Miss St, Texas). Think Ole Miss/Vandy/OU are well coached and can go Sweet 16 due to that but talent would catch up. I think Arkansas is doing the Cal thing lately-pushing so hard to make the NCAA's and then will become a "trendy" upset pick or for a run...and flame out. UGA is the head scratcher. I could see them winning but Mike White is such a tight ass coach he could piss it away.
Click to expand...
Florida is legit and Golden built this team with purpose. The pieces fit so well, and they have the talent across the board to win a title. And they seem to be getting better and better. Guys seem to be gaining confidence, even more so, over recent weeks. I like their team a lot. I typically don’t like other teams, but that team just seems to be fun to watch. I hope we don’t see them again. I’d be afraid they would beat the shit out of us.
 
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While not model related this seems like a good thread to pose this question.
At what point does the grind of the SEC schedule reach the level of diminishing
returns for the top 6 or so teams. Playing a difficult schedule has benefits no
doubt, but at some point does the mental and physical wear and tear become
a negative?

Think in terms of how many high level games we have seen in the SEC this year
There are almost no games that a team can bring their B- game and get a win.
I offer Alabama as an example, have they hit a wall in the last week or so?
What about UT, A&M or Missouri? UF seems to be hitting on all cylinders
right now, AU may be showing a few chinks in their armor

The SECT will be a war from day one, will the eventual winner have expended
too much energy heading into the NCAAT? Anyone care to venture an opinion
or though on the subject?
 
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I think that’s a possibility and I also think it’s true that it’s gonna be harder to win the SEC tournament this year than the NCAA tournament, and no, that’s not a joke.

I guess you could say I think an SEC tournament trophy this year is probably more prestigious than an NCAA tournament trophy. How stupid does that sound?

My question is this, do you think a few teams in the SEC may take their seed and run in order to prepare for the NCAA tournament? Do you think a team or two may not lay it all on the line?
 
yabbadabbadoo said:
I think that’s a possibility and I also think it’s true that it’s gonna be harder to win the SEC tournament this year than the NCAA tournament, and no, that’s not a joke.

I guess you could say I think an SEC tournament trophy this year is probably more prestigious than an NCAA tournament trophy. How stupid does that sound?

My question is this, do you think a few teams in the SEC may take their seed and run in order to prepare for the NCAA tournament? Do you think a team or two may not lay it all on the line?
Click to expand...
More prestigious, in terms of pure basketball reality maybe so. The SECT is compacted into
a 5 day period whereas the NCAAT is spread over a 3 week timespan which gives teams
time to rest and prepare specific game plans for a known opponent. In response to your
question I think whoever is standing after Friday is in it to win it. The teams in Wednesday
and Thursday games are fighting for seeding position and trying to win every game they can.
 
docholiday51 said:
While not model related this seems like a good thread to pose this question.
At what point does the grind of the SEC schedule reach the level of diminishing
returns for the top 6 or so teams. Playing a difficult schedule has benefits no
doubt, but at some point does the mental and physical wear and tear become
a negative?

Think in terms of how many high level games we have seen in the SEC this year
There are almost no games that a team can bring their B- game and get a win.
I offer Alabama as an example, have they hit a wall in the last week or so?
What about UT, A&M or Missouri? UF seems to be hitting on all cylinders
right now, AU may be showing a few chinks in their armor

The SECT will be a war from day one, will the eventual winner have expended
too much energy heading into the NCAAT? Anyone care to venture an opinion
or though on the subject?
Click to expand...
Might make them mentally tougher and able to overcome more in the NCAA. If you can avoid injuries it's probably more of a plus for the top teams. It might be demoralizing for the lower tier teams or any team that has key injuries. You don't get a chance to get healthy and take an easy win and losses can add up quickly while hoping to get healthy. I think it can separates the pretenders from the contenders.

This is a good question for discussion and probably deserves it's on thread.
 
BlueWorldOrder74 said:
Florida is legit and Golden built this team with purpose. The pieces fit so well, and they have the talent across the board to win a title. And they seem to be getting better and better. Guys seem to be gaining confidence, even more so, over recent weeks. I like their team a lot. I typically don’t like other teams, but that team just seems to be fun to watch. I hope we don’t see them again. I’d be afraid they would beat the shit out of us.
Click to expand...
I enjoy watching them play. I think UK could play with them as a game vs them is about BASKETBALL not the chaotic BS that a Tennessee game (love Pope for winning those games btw) and A&M (thank you Coach Pope again) game turns into where it's enduring whether the refs will call those teams for their blatant fouling and then quit gifting them FT's to help their piss ass offenses score.

The best aspect of this UF team is they can play several different styles and excel. They can get up/down, they can play halfcourt. Can press if needed but are very difficult for teams who haven't seen them to match up with because they have so many parts that can do a lot--also elite guards. If Richard gets on a heater, they are damn near unbeatable. He's the ? mark as he'll have some shaky shooting games with shot selection but Clayton is fantastic, the Euro sniper is coming on, and #2 is always going to contribute. Throw in Alijah Martin who I liked the most from FAU teams and he provides big shot/winning experience. That frontline is what has taken them to that level though-they are all versatile and don't sacrifice skill for athleticism.

Think we may look back and see this could've been UK's best win for Pope by the end of the year. This and the Duke win were highlights of year #1 to this point.
 
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I open up about every post on this model and enjoy reading Aike's responses to how the results come about. Good stuff.
 
yabbadabbadoo said:
I honestly think we match up good with Florida. We seem to be our best when we play like Florida, run and let it fly.
Click to expand...
Koby Brea had to play out of his mind to squeak one out over Florida at home, so I firmly disagree. Florida has multiple guards that can take us off the bounce at will. Houston, however, plays slower and generates offense frequently through the low post. We are good at defending the low post.
 
ralphdaltonfan said:
The tier of SEC teams I like on neutral sites-- Other SEC teams are very good but rely on a friendly whistle and play a style that can be officiated into a loss (Vols and Aggies) or are one trick ponies (Miss St, Texas).
Click to expand...

Mississippi State is 6-4 in away games this year. They are the only SEC team other than the top 4 with an above .500 W% on the road.
 
Padsfs07 said:
Mississippi State is 6-4 in away games this year. They are the only SEC team other than the top 4 with an above .500 W% on the road.
Click to expand...
Without looking, I'm guessing they haven't had an elite win against the SEC teams on the road. Now winning at Ole Miss is tough--Vandy too so give them that. Saw those games. South Carolina has played people tough in Columbia but that's a game you should win this year. Who else did they beat away from Starkville?

Their most impressive win to me on the road was Memphis.

Saying that--a lot of my disbelief in them is based on their last 2 half assed showings when they had an opportunity gifted to them and pissed it away buy not showing up for 25/30 mins of an NCAA play in game in '23 and last year in 1st Rd to a bad Michigan St team who honestly had 0 business making the Tournament. I love Hubbard and depending on what Riley Kugel shows up--you have a chance to scare people but they just have that "do they give a s***" component that scares me come filling out a bracket time.
 
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