Aike’s Model Update - 3/5/25

[Aike]

Turns out beating up on bad teams is good for your metrics. Who knew?

Setting up an 11 vs 12 showdown to end the season.

1. Auburn 4.26
2. Duke 3.82
3. Tennessee 3.06
4. Houston 2.98
5. Florida 2.93
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Arizona 2.65
8. Iowa St 2.61
9. Texas Tech 2.50
10. Alabama 2.40
11. Missouri 2.29
12. Kentucky 2.21
13. Maryland 2.142
14. Purdue 2.135
15. UConn 2.11
16. Kansas 2.095
17. Clemson 2.092
18. St John’s 1.99
19. Michigan St 1.95
20. Mississippi St 1.954
21. BYU 1.952
22. UCLA 1.91
23. Marquette 1.90
24. Michigan 1.80
25. Mississippi 1.75
27. Louisville 1.61
28. Georgia 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.58
30. Arkansas 1.57
36. Texas A&M 1.32
37. Ohio St 1.31
38. North Carolina 1.28
40. Oklahoma 1.23
48. Texas 1.09
51. Indiana 1.00
74. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

What is pulling Texas AM down?

 

[Aike]

What is pulling Texas AM down?

They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.

 

[will1976]

Turns out beating up on bad teams is good for your metrics. Who knew?

Setting up an 11 vs 12 showdown to end the season.

1. Auburn 4.26
2. Duke 3.82
3. Tennessee 3.06
4. Houston 2.98
5. Florida 2.93
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Arizona 2.65
8. Iowa St 2.61
9. Texas Tech 2.50
10. Alabama 2.40
11. Missouri 2.29
12. Kentucky 2.21
13. Maryland 2.142
14. Purdue 2.135
15. UConn 2.11
16. Kansas 2.095
17. Clemson 2.092
18. St John’s 1.99
19. Michigan St 1.95
20. Mississippi St 1.954
21. BYU 1.952
22. UCLA 1.91
23. Marquette 1.90
24. Michigan 1.80
25. Mississippi 1.75
27. Louisville 1.61
28. Georgia 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.58
30. Arkansas 1.57
36. Texas A&M 1.32
37. Ohio St 1.31
38. North Carolina 1.28
40. Oklahoma 1.23
48. Texas 1.09
51. Indiana 1.00
74. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47

Thanks for the info!

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.

I’m with you. And I agree, I just didn’t know computers knew that also!

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

Where’s Drake in the model ????
They’re same as Duke 27-3
Beat Vandy @ Vandy
Beat Kansas St @ Kansas St

I don’t see where just because you beat the hell out of trash teams it should catapult you to the top

I don’t see Drake anywhere !!!!

Texas A&M at 36 is a joke

St John’s should be ahead of Duke and they’re 18

 

[BlueCat#8]

Now we know how duke is ranked so high. They have beaten up bad teams all year

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

How I Kansas 16 in the metric, they are absolute garbage

 

[Aike]

I’m with you. And I agree, I just didn’t know computers knew that also!

Only my computer 😂

 

[Aike]

How I Kansas 16 in the metric, they are absolute garbage

Go back and look at who they have beaten and their SOS.

 

[Aike]

Now we know how duke is ranked so high. They have beaten up bad teams all year

That has a lot to do with it, but they are also really good. We have seen life become more difficult for them when they rub into teams with a pulse.

 

[Aike]

Where’s Drake in the model ????
They’re same as Duke 27-3
Beat Vandy @ Vandy
Beat Kansas St @ Kansas St

I don’t see where just because you beat the hell out of trash teams it should catapult you to the top

I don’t see Drake anywhere !!!!

Texas A&M at 36 is a joke

St John’s should be ahead of Duke and they’re 18

It’s time for you to make your own model. I can’t wait to pick it apart line by line 😁

 

[JwUKFan11]

They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.

You might have the smartest computer in the world if it can watch the games and make human like decisions such as this! What an accomplishment.

 

[MonsterMash79]

Now we know how duke is ranked so high. They have beaten up bad teams all year

I honestly think they get beat early

 

[Aike]

I honestly think they get beat early

I hope they do. Should blitz their first round opponent. Could get a second round scare depending on draw. From Sweet 16 forward no one is safe.

 

[JimBR]

Does this include the Ole Miss win over the vols last night?

 

[Aike]

Does this include the Ole Miss win over the vols last night?

No

 

[jlock7614]

Turns out beating up on bad teams is good for your metrics. Who knew?

Setting up an 11 vs 12 showdown to end the season.

1. Auburn 4.26
2. Duke 3.82
3. Tennessee 3.06
4. Houston 2.98
5. Florida 2.93
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Arizona 2.65
8. Iowa St 2.61
9. Texas Tech 2.50
10. Alabama 2.40
11. Missouri 2.29
12. Kentucky 2.21
13. Maryland 2.142
14. Purdue 2.135
15. UConn 2.11
16. Kansas 2.095
17. Clemson 2.092
18. St John’s 1.99
19. Michigan St 1.95
20. Mississippi St 1.954
21. BYU 1.952
22. UCLA 1.91
23. Marquette 1.90
24. Michigan 1.80
25. Mississippi 1.75
27. Louisville 1.61
28. Georgia 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.58
30. Arkansas 1.57
36. Texas A&M 1.32
37. Ohio St 1.31
38. North Carolina 1.28
40. Oklahoma 1.23
48. Texas 1.09
51. Indiana 1.00
74. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47

Historically, how has your model faired in the tournament?

 

[Aike]

Historically, how has your model faired in the tournament?

Pretty well.

 

[phunterd]

Thanks as always for posting.

 

[jlock7614]

Pretty well.

I guess I should have asked for more detailed examples. I appreciate data collection and statistics would love to see a more in depth analysis of how your model performed in prior tournaments if possible.

 

[Seth_C]

If we perform to your model's expectations I will be very satisfied, given the last few years. If we exceed your model I will be a happy guy.

 

[Cats192]

They play garbage basketball. They try to win by mucking up the game and hoping the refs fall for their flops.

Hard to get away with that for long in the tournament. Always exceptions, but I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game. Hope they win none, honestly.

I think if Auburn loses (and I think they’re a great team), it will be because they spend too much time flopping and begging for calls.

They could very well cut it down. But man, watching their last 2 games, I’ve never seen a good team beg so much for calls.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

If Auburn loses it'll be due to bad player rotation and Broome continuing his mediocre play down the stretch. I think the POY of the "race" was fun for media but it's clearly Flagg's award.

UF is the team I like the best of the SEC teams to get to the Final Four and win it all. They can play several different ways....and have personnel that is very difficult to match up with. They will overwhelm some very good teams in moments of games and their win @Auburn was the most impressive I saw this year based on where they played and just how dominant they were in kicking their ass without their full roster. Last night their win over Bama would've been double digits if it was a neutral site or home game. They were running them off the floor.

The tier of SEC teams I like on neutral sites--UF, Auburn (they have been great away from home most of the year and fantastic in neutral site games), Bama-they schedule tough yearly but think they will come up short due to the Wrightsell/Reid injuries.....and had UK up there but without Robinson....think it'll be tough. But the Cats can make shots/score and that helps in an NCAA environment. What has to be mentioned until it ends? HC has never won a Tournament game. Other SEC teams are very good but rely on a friendly whistle and play a style that can be officiated into a loss (Vols and Aggies) or are one trick ponies (Miss St, Texas). Think Ole Miss/Vandy/OU are well coached and can go Sweet 16 due to that but talent would catch up. I think Arkansas is doing the Cal thing lately-pushing so hard to make the NCAA's and then will become a "trendy" upset pick or for a run...and flame out. UGA is the head scratcher. I could see them winning but Mike White is such a tight ass coach he could piss it away.

 

[MonsterMash79]

I hope they do. Should blitz their first round opponent. Could get a second round scare depending on draw. From Sweet 16 forward no one is safe.

They’re notorious for jumping out and then letting teams right back in it. That’s gonna bite them in the a$$ come tournament time👌

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

It’s time for you to make your own model. I can’t wait to pick it apart line by line 😁

Models are kinda dumb IMO.
That’s my whole point.
It’s something to do I guess, which is fine, but on the court is the best model.
Even the seeding for the NCAA is really wishy washy from year to year.
Duke would have somewhere between 5-8 losses had they played in the SEC this year.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

If Auburn loses it'll be due to bad player rotation and Broome continuing his mediocre play down the stretch. I think the POY of the "race" was fun for media but it's clearly Flagg's award.

UF is the team I like the best of the SEC teams to get to the Final Four and win it all. They can play several different ways....and have personnel that is very difficult to match up with. They will overwhelm some very good teams in moments of games and their win @Auburn was the most impressive I saw this year based on where they played and just how dominant they were in kicking their ass without their full roster. Last night their win over Bama would've been double digits if it was a neutral site or home game. They were running them off the floor.

The tier of SEC teams I like on neutral sites--UF, Auburn (they have been great away from home most of the year and fantastic in neutral site games), Bama-they schedule tough yearly but think they will come up short due to the Wrightsell/Reid injuries.....and had UK up there but without Robinson....think it'll be tough. But the Cats can make shots/score and that helps in an NCAA environment. What has to be mentioned until it ends? HC has never won a Tournament game. Other SEC teams are very good but rely on a friendly whistle and play a style that can be officiated into a loss (Vols and Aggies) or are one trick ponies (Miss St, Texas). Think Ole Miss/Vandy/OU are well coached and can go Sweet 16 due to that but talent would catch up. I think Arkansas is doing the Cal thing lately-pushing so hard to make the NCAA's and then will become a "trendy" upset pick or for a run...and flame out. UGA is the head scratcher. I could see them winning but Mike White is such a tight ass coach he could piss it away.

Florida is legit and Golden built this team with purpose. The pieces fit so well, and they have the talent across the board to win a title. And they seem to be getting better and better. Guys seem to be gaining confidence, even more so, over recent weeks. I like their team a lot. I typically don’t like other teams, but that team just seems to be fun to watch. I hope we don’t see them again. I’d be afraid they would beat the shit out of us.