Aike’s Model Update - 3/5/25

[gharding07]

Without looking, I'm guessing they haven't had an elite win against the SEC teams on the road. Now winning at Ole Miss is tough--Vandy too so give them that. Saw those games. South Carolina has played people tough in Columbia but that's a game you should win this year. Who else did they beat away from Starkville?

Their most impressive win to me on the road was Memphis.

Saying that--a lot of my disbelief in them is based on their last 2 half assed showings when they had an opportunity gifted to them and pissed it away buy not showing up for 25/30 mins of an NCAA play in game in '23 and last year in 1st Rd to a bad Michigan St team who honestly had 0 business making the Tournament. I love Hubbard and depending on what Riley Kugel shows up--you have a chance to scare people but they just have that "do they give a s***" component that scares me come filling out a bracket time.

@Ole Miss is there best win away. Also beat Memphis but not sure if that was away or on a neutral court.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

	Team	O	D	ODM	T	ASM
1​	Duke	129.1	89.7	39.4	66.2	26.1
2​	Auburn	130.7	94.3	36.4	68.3	24.9
3​	Florida	127.1	92.9	34.2	69.6	23.8
4​	Alabama	127.4	98.1	29.3	75.1	22.0
5​	Houston	124.3	89.2	35.1	61.3	21.5
6​	Tennessee	119.2	88.1	31.1	63.8	19.8
7​	Gonzaga	125.1	97.9	27.2	70.4	19.1
8​	Michigan St.	118.1	91.1	27	67.8	18.3
9​	Texas Tech	124.8	97.2	27.6	65.9	18.2
10​	Wisconsin	123.9	97.2	26.7	67.7	18.1
11​	Iowa St.	118.7	92.8	25.9	68.9	17.8
12​	Kentucky	125.2	100.2	25	70.9	17.7

*Stats come from Kenpom
O* - Points per 100 possessions
D* - Opponent points per 100 possessions
ODM - Scoring margin per 100 possessions
T* - Number of possess per 40 minutes
ASM - Scoring margin adjusted for tempo

Very rudimentary metric I will admit. Just wanted to see what I could put together in a few minutes (I am a data analyst by trade so like playing with numbers.) Looks like the same teams are near the top as in your model, although in different order. The last 10 champions had an average ASM of 21.2, so the top 5 on this list would fit that average. We would need to get our D down to 95 points per 100 to hit that average.

Also, if I need to remove this from your thread I do not mind. Just let me know.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

	Team	O	D	ODM	T	ASM
1​	Duke	129.1	89.7	39.4	66.2	26.1
2​	Auburn	130.7	94.3	36.4	68.3	24.9
3​	Florida	127.1	92.9	34.2	69.6	23.8
4​	Alabama	127.4	98.1	29.3	75.1	22.0
5​	Houston	124.3	89.2	35.1	61.3	21.5
6​	Tennessee	119.2	88.1	31.1	63.8	19.8
7​	Gonzaga	125.1	97.9	27.2	70.4	19.1
8​	Michigan St.	118.1	91.1	27	67.8	18.3
9​	Texas Tech	124.8	97.2	27.6	65.9	18.2
10​	Wisconsin	123.9	97.2	26.7	67.7	18.1
11​	Iowa St.	118.7	92.8	25.9	68.9	17.8
12​	Kentucky	125.2	100.2	25	70.9	17.7

*Stats come from Kenpom
O* - Points per 100 possessions
D* - Opponent points per 100 possessions
ODM - Scoring margin per 100 possessions
T* - Number of possess per 40 minutes
ASM - Scoring margin adjusted for tempo

Very rudimentary metric I will admit. Just wanted to see what I could put together in a few minutes (I am a data analyst by trade so like playing with numbers.) Looks like the same teams are near the top as in your model, although in different order. The last 10 champions had an average ASM of 21.2, so the top 5 on this list would fit that average. We would need to get our D down to 95 points per 100 to hit that average.

Also, if I need to remove this from your thread I do not mind. Just let me know.

Can you run that analysis from a specific date only, like say since week of 2/3 to now? Just curious what it would look like?