Model Update - 2/15/24

[Aike]

Heading into the weekend against Auburn, fresh off their bludgeoning of South Carolina.

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.82
3. Auburn 2.81
4. Houston 2.72
5. Tennessee 2.63
6. Iowa St 2.53
7. Purdue 2.44
8. Alabama 2.41
9. Kansas 2.23
10. Marquette 2.18
11. Michigan St 1.95
12. BYU 1.94
13. Virginia 1.80
14. Kentucky 1.73
15. UNC 1.61
16. TCU 1.559
17. Colorado 1.555
18. Duke 1.48
19. Texas 1.46
20. FAU 1.425
21. Baylor 1.417
22. Mississippi St 1.41
23. Gonzaga 1.28
24. Texas Tech 1.27
25. St Mary’s 1.26


Rest of SEC

33. Mississippi
35. Florida
63. LSU
73. ATM
81. South Carolina (down 12 spots)
90. Missouri
103. Georgia
104. Arkansas
181. Vandy


I’ve got Auburn -7 on Saturday. Going to be a tough one and would be a huge win for our resume.

 

[$Z71$]

Heading into the weekend against Auburn, fresh off their bludgeoning of South Carolina.

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.82
3. Auburn 2.81
4. Houston 2.72
5. Tennessee 2.63
6. Iowa St 2.53
7. Purdue 2.44
8. Alabama 2.41
9. Kansas 2.23
10. Marquette 2.18
11. Michigan St 1.95
12. BYU 1.94
13. Virginia 1.80
14. Kentucky 1.73
15. UNC 1.61
16. TCU 1.559
17. Colorado 1.555
18. Duke 1.48
19. Texas 1.46
20. FAU 1.425
21. Baylor 1.417
22. Mississippi St 1.41
23. Gonzaga 1.28
24. Texas Tech 1.27
25. St Mary’s 1.26


Rest of SEC

33. Mississippi
35. Florida
63. LSU
73. ATM
81. South Carolina (down 12 spots)
90. Missouri
103. Georgia
104. Arkansas
181. Vandy


I’ve got Auburn -7 on Saturday. Going to be a tough one and would be a huge win for our resume.

Yep, I have -7.5 Auburn at Auburn ans Cats winning 23% of the time. For some reason I think this wi be our Marquee win.

 

[mcwildcats04]

Wow, crazy for me to see SC so low even after the blowout. Also surprising for me to see AZ at #1. They've been so unpredictable this year (and UConn seemingly so consistent) that it's surprising to see them ahead of UConn. I do give you credit on ISU as you were high on them early and they've turned out to be pretty good.

 

[CatPhight]

Wow, crazy for me to see SC so low even after the blowout. Also surprising for me to see AZ at #1. They've been so unpredictable this year (and UConn seemingly so consistent) that it's surprising to see them ahead of UConn. I do give you credit on ISU as you were high on them early and they've turned out to be pretty good.

Probably because USCJr out of conference schedule was pitiful...they played one Top 25 team and took the L in the cock center...

 

[BlueBomb]

Good stuff as always, OP. Thank you.

 

[Aike]

Yep, I have -7.5 Auburn at Auburn ans Cats winning 23% of the time. For some reason I think this wi be our Marquee win.

Basically the same for me, just depending on how much you give for homecourt, which is a little bit of art as well as science.

I have it -3.5 on a neutral court.

 

[Aike]

Probably because USCJr out of conference schedule was pitiful...they played one Top 25 team and took the L in the cock center...

Yeah their SOS is killing them. Obviously beating UT and UK was great, but 27 and 40 point losses to Bama and Auburn aren’t helping their cause.

 

[Aike]

Wow, crazy for me to see SC so low even after the blowout. Also surprising for me to see AZ at #1. They've been so unpredictable this year (and UConn seemingly so consistent) that it's surprising to see them ahead of UConn. I do give you credit on ISU as you were high on them early and they've turned out to be pretty good.

As noted in another post, poor SOS and a couple blowouts are pulling USC Jr. down.

UCONN has made up a lot of ground on Arizona. But Arizona has won 5 straight, including a 20 point win at a good Colorado team.

I haven’t spent much time looking at tournament locations, but I would think Zona is in the driver’s seat for the one seed out West, and isn’t the Final Four in Arizona this year?

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Heading into the weekend against Auburn, fresh off their bludgeoning of South Carolina.

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.82
3. Auburn 2.81
4. Houston 2.72
5. Tennessee 2.63
6. Iowa St 2.53
7. Purdue 2.44
8. Alabama 2.41
9. Kansas 2.23
10. Marquette 2.18
11. Michigan St 1.95
12. BYU 1.94
13. Virginia 1.80
14. Kentucky 1.73
15. UNC 1.61
16. TCU 1.559
17. Colorado 1.555
18. Duke 1.48
19. Texas 1.46
20. FAU 1.425
21. Baylor 1.417
22. Mississippi St 1.41
23. Gonzaga 1.28
24. Texas Tech 1.27
25. St Mary’s 1.26


Rest of SEC

33. Mississippi
35. Florida
63. LSU
73. ATM
81. South Carolina (down 12 spots)
90. Missouri
103. Georgia
104. Arkansas
181. Vandy


I’ve got Auburn -7 on Saturday. Going to be a tough one and would be a huge win for our resume.

Its starting to look pretty good but Zona is a pretender. I hope you get paid for the effort at some point.

 

[Aike]

Its starting to look pretty good but Zona is a pretender. I hope you get paid for the effort at some point.

What I keep going back to on Arizona is they rebound the ball, score in bunches, and their point guard led his team to the championship game 2 years ago.

Susceptible to upset? No doubt. But like our coach is suddenly fond of saying, I think they’re a team built for March.

 

[mcwildcats04]

As noted in another post, poor SOS and a couple blowouts are pulling USC Jr. down.

UCONN has made up a lot of ground on Arizona. But Arizona has won 5 straight, including a 20 point win at a good Colorado team.

I haven’t spent much time looking at tournament locations, but I would think Zona is in the driver’s seat for the one seed out West, and isn’t the Final Four in Arizona this year?

Yep, Final Four in Arizona this year. Presumably a huge advantage for Zona if they make it.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

Iowa at 6???? They are not very good

 

[mcwildcats04]

Iowa at 6???? They are not very good

Iowa St. They are good.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

Iowa St. They are good.

Oh ok just thought it was Iowa misread the model. Michigan St isn’t very good either

 

[HalHR2500]

Heading into the weekend against Auburn, fresh off their bludgeoning of South Carolina.

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.82
3. Auburn 2.81
4. Houston 2.72
5. Tennessee 2.63
6. Iowa St 2.53
7. Purdue 2.44
8. Alabama 2.41
9. Kansas 2.23
10. Marquette 2.18
11. Michigan St 1.95
12. BYU 1.94
13. Virginia 1.80
14. Kentucky 1.73
15. UNC 1.61
16. TCU 1.559
17. Colorado 1.555
18. Duke 1.48
19. Texas 1.46
20. FAU 1.425
21. Baylor 1.417
22. Mississippi St 1.41
23. Gonzaga 1.28
24. Texas Tech 1.27
25. St Mary’s 1.26


Rest of SEC

33. Mississippi
35. Florida
63. LSU
73. ATM
81. South Carolina (down 12 spots)
90. Missouri
103. Georgia
104. Arkansas
181. Vandy


I’ve got Auburn -7 on Saturday. Going to be a tough one and would be a huge win for our resume.

Vegas will have it -10 or above on Saturday

 

[Aike]

Vegas will have it -10 or above on Saturday

I’m going to guess it opens at -9.5

 

[Aike]

Oh ok just thought it was Iowa misread the model. Michigan St isn’t very good either

I think MSU is decent, and their coach knows something about putting together a March run.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

What I keep going back to on Arizona is they rebound the ball, score in bunches, and their point guard led his team to the championship game 2 years ago.

Susceptible to upset? No doubt. But like our coach is suddenly fond of saying, I think they’re a team built for March.

Fair enough. Sorry about being so argumentative a couple weeks ago. I shouldn't post when I'm having a bad health day.

 

[Aike]

Fair enough. Sorry about being so argumentative a couple weeks ago. I shouldn't post when I'm having a bad health day.

No problem at all. Sorry to hear you’re having health issues, and I hope you’re feeling better.