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Will and/or Should Reed Declare For The Draft?

Random UK Fan

Sophomore
Dec 10, 2018
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Reed-Sheppard-Analytics-113023.webp
 
Selfishly as a fan I really hope he comes back. But if these mocks are accurate and he’s a lottery pick or even top 5 pick, it will be hard to tell him not to go. Hopefully NIL $ helps guide him back.

What won’t help though is that Cal will try to push him out the door though so he can add another face to the NBA wall
 
Because of our track record of players leaving early and oftentimes way too early, you would think Reed takes the money and runs. I think Reed and his parents are well aware of possible barriers for him to succeed in the pros right now and, for that reason, I think he stays another year and works to get better in those areas. Richards, Washington and others are playing in the pros now because they took that extra year or two. Love Reed but I kind of expect his draft status to change a little before draft day. Whatever he does , I support him.
 
$Well if Reed Sheppard wants to come back we'll pay him whatever he wants in NIL deals. Twice what he wants.
Believe me. Name it we will double it.
MONEY won't be his reason for leaving .
$1 to 52 million lol.
'Wink wink' 👁️👁️
 
I think most athletes should stretch out their career...I mean the NBA is the ceiling of professional sports...the only reason not to stay in college, is the risk of injury and as we all know it can happen any time, including in the NBA. So I think if you're smart enough, just stay in college. Enjoy the ride and learn in the classroom and on the court.
 
Its a decision that is going to have to be made sooner than was expected. Its not even a topic within the family until after the season . I’m told the decision will be Reeds . I realize none of this is earth shattering , but that’s all I could get , lol .
Better than any of us could get 😂

Tell Jeff STL_Cat is a huge fan and he helped make my senior year in high school championship game party an absolute blow out bash 🤣
 
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Declare probably yes.. he should at least get feed back.

Reeds season went like this: came put swinging in November and December and wowed everyone. Then kind of disappeared for January and into February, fell off the radar. And now he's having a great last few games.

If he keeps playing like this he's probably gone. But, there's so much talent on this team that there's going to be nights where 3 or 4 players might have better performances.
 
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It’s not the same as it used to be. You can make life changing money in college now with nil. Especially a hometown hero like Reed Shephard. I still believe he will come back next year
 
If he is a Lottery pick, he is GONE.

I hate to lose him after one season, but this year's NBA Draft will be down, giving him a bigger reason to leave now. Sad, but just the reality of college basketball, especially with Cal's system.
 
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Selfishly, I want him to stay. However, if he is projected top 5, then he should definitely go. NIL can't touch the contract for those picks. Just to put things into perspective, the 5th pick of the upcoming draft is projected to get at least a $21.5 million/3 year deal. No one here would turn that down to be a "Kentucky legend" and finish their degree. If he wants to finish his education, he could do that during the summers.
Again, as a UK fan, I want him to stay, but with money like that on the table, and the shelf-life of a professional athlete, you have to think rationally.

 
I fully believe Reed grew up wanting to play for Kentucky. I also believe he grew up wanting to play in the NBA.

Is he more likely than a non-Kentucky kid to stick around? Maybe a little.

I think he's gone. And I'll be happy to be wrong if he comes back.
 
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Selfishly, I want him to stay. However, if he is projected top 5, then he should definitely go. NIL can't touch the contract for those picks. Just to put things into perspective, the 5th pick of the upcoming draft is projected to get at least a $21.5 million/3 year deal. No one here would turn that down to be a "Kentucky legend" and finish their degree. If he wants to finish his education, he could do that during the summers.
Again, as a UK fan, I want him to stay, but with money like that on the table, and the shelf-life of a professional athlete, you have to think rationally.


Yeah, this is going to be a heart-vs-head decision, and I’m not sure how much heart could turn down that many millions.
 
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Obviously, and selfishly, I want him to come back. But I know the $$ is too good to not go, especially if he's lottery or 1 through 5 is even more life changing. I do think education is important to Reed, Jeff and Stacy, but he could do that during the summers. And I do think he would do that if he got drafted.
 
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Depends on how high he's projected to go. If it's outside the lottery the NIL money might be more for him(he is incredibly popular in Big Blue Nation). The fact that his parents are well off and both have degrees from UK makes him more likely to come back. But if he's projected in the top 10, well, you can't blame anybody for taking those bucks.
 
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Normally I would say lottery picks should go, but Reed and NIL specifically may actually change those calculations. If he comes back he could make a killing in NIL money.
 
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Then UK fans will have to really get serious about NIL. Currently, the highest paid college athlete with NIL isn't getting paid top 5 pick money.
I posted before reading your post. We can't compete with top 10 money, but with Reed's popularity, we might be able to compete with 11+ money. Maybe. An 11 pick this year got $4.2 million and the 20 pick $2.7 million. I think Reed's NIL money will be way bigger than any UK player so far.
 
It’s not the same as it used to be. You can make life changing money in college now with nil. Especially a hometown hero like Reed Shephard. I still believe he will come back next year
There’s zero chance he comes back if his projection stays where it is. At worst he’s going to make about $8M on a rookie scale deal. That’s assuming 80% of the max and only the two yrs. He’d be a moron to pass that up. This yrs draft is way weak compared to the 25 draft too. If he’s a lottery pick, he’s gone. And he should be.
 
I posted before reading your post. We can't compete with top 10 money, but with Reed's popularity, we might be able to compete with 11+ money. Maybe. An 11 pick this year got $4.2 million and the 20 pick $2.7 million. I think Reed's NIL money will be way bigger than any UK player so far.
You have to double your figures. He’s going to get, at minimum a 2 yr deal at that money. Guaranteed. Club option for 3 and 4. For a player like Reed, he’s going to get the 4 yrs at 4M per unless something crazy happens. There’s no way in hell he’s getting 4M in NIL. Zero chance.
 
I think most athletes should stretch out their career...I mean the NBA is the ceiling of professional sports...the only reason not to stay in college, is the risk of injury and as we all know it can happen any time, including in the NBA. So I think if you're smart enough, just stay in college. Enjoy the ride and learn in the classroom and on the court.
Sage wisdom, IMO. Additionally, enjoy the special years of college life ... soak it up. Life always has it's risks ... nothing ventured, nothing gained. You only get to be this age one time. What I would give to have a re-do.
 
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Yes, and yes. It’s VERY rare for players who are projected as surefire lottery picks to come back, and most of the time it doesn’t work out. The few examples I can think of where it hasn’t hurt a player would be Marcus Smart, Miles Bridges. Kyle Filipowski would be the most recent example I can think of but he wasn’t projected as a lottery pick.

I think of players like Ivan Rabb, James McAdoo, and Melo Trimble who came back after being projected lottery/mid-first round picks and missed out on a ton of money. Even at UK we have seen a number of players’ draft stock get hurt after coming back (Poythress, Harrison twins for example, although they weren’t lottery picks).

If he does in fact get a lottery guarantee, he would be foolish to stay, even though we would all obviously love to see him back.
 
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He should declare, go through the process, get feedback, then come back if he's not top 10.
 
You have to double your figures. He’s going to get, at minimum a 2 yr deal at that money. Guaranteed. Club option for 3 and 4. For a player like Reed, he’s going to get the 4 yrs at 4M per unless something crazy happens. There’s no way in hell he’s getting 4M in NIL. Zero chance.
Oh, I was just talking about the 1st year's NBA money. That's all he'd be giving up to play one more year, less what he gets from NIL. I really have no ideas about what his NIL money would be next year but I could see it being multiple times more than any recent UK player. I was thinking we could compete with the 1st year money if he fell outside the lottery(I personally don't think he will fall outside the lottery).
 
If he balls out the rest of the year and is a lottery pick, you gotta go. The only thing you risk is that you miss out on the best part of your life, college life. But $2-4 million is hard to pass up.
 
I just want to remind everybody that if he does not have a career altering injury, which is unlikely since he is always so under control, or his stock drops as a sophomore(I don't think it will), he would only be giving up the 1st year NBA salary minus his NIL. So he wouldn't be giving up 10-15 million; he'd be giving up maybe $1.5 million. Now $1.5 million would be life altering for me and most of us but the difference in young man that figures to make dozenss of millions of dollars making $2 million versus $3.5 million for one year isn't a life altering difference.
 
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I just want to remind everybody that if he does not have a career altering injury, which is unlikely since he is always so under control, or his stock drops as a sophomore(I don't think it will), he would only be giving up the 1st year NBA salary minus his NIL. So he wouldn't be giving up 10-15 million; he'd be giving up maybe $1.5 million. Now $1.5 million would be life altering for me and most of us but the difference in young man that figures to make dozenss of millions of dollars making $2 million versus $3.5 million for one year isn't a life altering difference.
10th pick 4.4....13th is 3.8 a year.
If he could come back with several other key guys to legitimately compete for a NC I would hope, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
 
Normally I would say lottery picks should go, but Reed and NIL specifically may actually change those calculations. If he comes back he could make a killing in NIL money.
Reed could make more than cal next season tbh if there are no restrictions and Barney stays out of the way.
 
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