Will and/or Should Reed Declare For The Draft?
- Thread starter Random UK Fan
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He should definitely go through the process. His ball handling and defense aren’t what they should be, but he can knock down shots. I see him as a more athletic Austin Reeves, but currently lacking the handle to be a difference maker in the near future
It's hard to resist for most players because it's a dream they've had since they started playing the game.
But for Sheppard in particular, since both his parents were UK stars, I'm thinking wearing a UK jersey was
his number one dream as a kid. It's a unique situation and so it's impossible to predict what he'll do.
He is gone, at least that is the opinion of the people in the know that live in London. I do think situations can obviously change depending on roster and NIL. I would come back unless I felt like my team had a legitimate chance to be a one seed and cut down the nets.
It’s a fascinating question. I think he’s a lock first round pick whenever he declares but also I have real doubts on how high a 6’2-6’3 combo guard without spectacular athleticism should go.
I really want to see how the season finishes before I say either way. To me he feels similar to a Immanuel Quickley type NBA player. Could end up a little better in the league but I’d be shocked if he was a star. It’s an interesting draft hypothetical especially in a very odd/lackluster class.
I really want to see how the season finishes before I say either way. To me he feels similar to a Immanuel Quickley type NBA player. Could end up a little better in the league but I’d be shocked if he was a star. It’s an interesting draft hypothetical especially in a very odd/lackluster class.
I think his stock falls a bit because of his measurables. He’ll be a first rounder, borderline lottery.
The intangibles for me would be the fact that he will never get to put on a Kentucky jersey again. Never play in Rupp again. His parents won’t be in the seats for every home game.
He might make twice as much, but the cost of living is much higher in NBA cities than in Kentucky.
Lots of factors.
I really hope he returns.
The intangibles for me would be the fact that he will never get to put on a Kentucky jersey again. Never play in Rupp again. His parents won’t be in the seats for every home game.
He might make twice as much, but the cost of living is much higher in NBA cities than in Kentucky.
Lots of factors.
I really hope he returns.
Unless Jeff just lied straight to my face ( he wouldn’t) , a decision hasn’t been made or talked about seriously. He will go through the process , get solid feedback, and decide then .
That’s exactly how I think. His measurables and the measurables of other who enter will knock him down. It happens every year. They are enamored with athletic potential.
If he’s a lotto pick he’d be an idiot not to go. That’s a once in a lifetime opportunity and anyone that says otherwise is also an idiot. All it takes is coming back and a career ending injury to happen to erase double digit millions. You go.m while your body can make that money.
Now if he drops to mid to late 1st round, then it’s a lot trickier.
Of course I want him here for four years. But if he’s a lotto pick? He needs to go.
Now if he drops to mid to late 1st round, then it’s a lot trickier.
Of course I want him here for four years. But if he’s a lotto pick? He needs to go.
I made a fool of myself a few seasons ago at Big Blue Madness. They had a red carpet where former players were walking in ahead of time. Jeff came down the carpet, and I yelled, "Jeff... Jeff! (He looked up and saw me)... "I was you in the driveway!" He just waved nicely... But as someone that has grayed quite quickly in life... He was probably like, isn't that guy my age? Oh well... I was excited.
If he is a lottery pick he should go. I just have my doubts that he is a lottery pick. I would love to hear what Ralph Dalton says about him
If he declares for feedback, he's gone. You just know about 25 NBA GMs are salivating at the prospect of landing a PG like Shep. And he should go. Of course I wish he'd stay for 4 years, but how many players have we said that about?
I just want to say that I saw this coming, just like I saw Tyler Herro coming. Both players were poo-pooed coming out of high school but I saw what they could do and they have delivered. I think we haven't yet seen the latest heroics from Shep this year, either.
I just want to say that I saw this coming, just like I saw Tyler Herro coming. Both players were poo-pooed coming out of high school but I saw what they could do and they have delivered. I think we haven't yet seen the latest heroics from Shep this year, either.
Maybe playing in front of your parents and friends every night in your home state for the team you dreamed of playing for since you were little? Leading that team to a title, like your dad? Getting to be a kid one more year?
And it’s not like it was just a few years ago. Now he can still get paid and stay at UK. He won’t make 7 million, but he could make 2-3 million if he sticks around.
With the cost of living difference making 2-3 million in Kentucky is about the same as making 7 million in most NBA cities. If he has to move to LA, then he probably loses money. Cost of living in Cali is outrageous. I know people who have sold their house in Cali and bought a house twice the size in Kentucky for half the price.
He will have to take all the factors into account. His parents aren’t going to let him make a rash decision solely based on purely money. He’s not a poor kid from the city looking to get his parents out of poverty. Kid is from an affluent well educated family.
These are solid arguments. But the allure of the NBA and the path to the second contract being one year closer makes a strong argument too. It's really just up to Shep what he wants to do. He's earned it.
Yep, it’s purely speculation on either side. Nobody knows. He doesn’t even know what he is going to do yet. A lot can happen between now and the NBA draft. We just have to wait and see. If he was a typical Cal recruit staring at a first round pick there wouldn’t even be a discussion. This kid is just not a typical “Cal Freshman.”
I think the entire BBN would want Reed to comeback but it’s unlikely to happen. The kid is a pro.
While that’s true, 7 million or so a year makes you set for life if you’re not stupid. Give me heck half of that right now and I could just about hang it up with the right investments.
When your career is based on physical fitness you take the money as your body allows. Imagine Reed gets his 7 million and then has a career needing injury. Sucks. But Joe he’s got 7 million to heal and live life. Not so bad huh?
I think with Jeff being a financial advisor that Reed will get the very best advice as to how his finances will look after the season and it'll be up to him as to which way he goes.
I think he will come back for another year and I hope coming off the bench this year doesn't factor in that decision.
I think he will come back for another year and I hope coming off the bench this year doesn't factor in that decision.
Degrees don't mean as much anymore for many fields.
Unfortunately the biggest factors are working against us. This is a really bad draft which will push him into the lottery. Second, highly likely that the vast majority of this team will be gone so the appeal of coming back to compete for a title is not a clear factor.
I have been so wrong on so many kids leaving for the NBA since Cal's arrival. I always hate it when you know a kid left and will fall through the cracks in the next level. I would hope Ulis would be the sounding board for some of this bunch of kids. He knows the in and out of the league, we will see if he is the smart one in the room for these kids. Jeff has been there done that, I think if Jeff thinks he needs another year, he will honor his parents and return. If he is a lottery this year, he will be as high or higher next year. I hope he returns, I tend to forget the names of those who leave early as I never watch the NBA brand of what they call basketball. It is what it is so in a couple of months we will know who went and who made the biggest mistake in their life of leaving early due to pier pressure..
Not a lottery pick, I have serious concerns with him being a NBA player or bench player probably a g leaguer at best.
It sounds like based on the talent scouts that do this stuff for a living you may be all alone in your concerns of him probably being a G Leaguer.
He has serious deficiencies as a defender slow feet. Reed has great basketball IQ, he has shown a bunch of guys who lack fundamentals up that doesn’t happen in the NBA.
So an 18 year old kid can't improve his defense or work with a trainer to increase his foot speed? He has instincts and a feel for the game that some can never be taught and that is what will earn his keep in the NBA. Will he ever be an all star? I don't think so but then again I didn't think he would do as well as he has this year. So I won't count him out until his playing time is done and sure won't do it halfway through his freshman year of college.
He's still a first round lock.
He's going to benefit from a very weak draft.
If he were to get jumped in the draft order it would come from fellow frosh Jared McClain or Collier from USC.
The NBA is not taking Sr guards like Reeves or Mark Sears in the first.
Should he "declare" for the draft? Absolutely. Maybe some random online ranking is right and there is some Top-5 (even Top 10) pick team saying "we want to pick you early". At the very least though, he will find out what teams think of him and what he needs to work on.
Will he "declare"? Yeah, probably. Even if he 100% intends to return, I think he would to get that invaluable draft feedback. Look what it has done for Reeves and his game.
Unasked questions (by the OP):
Will he "stay in the draft"? I honestly think that is 50/50, and I don't think ANYONE can say with certainty (whose last name isn't Sheppard) that he WILL or WON'T. Those who say he is 100% gone or 100% returning are just blow-hards who like to think of themselves as all-knowing.
Should he "stay in the draft"? That depends...on many factors.
- what kind of feedback does he get from NBA teams (both on where might he be drafted, not just best case, but also most likely case, and worst case), AND what does he need to work on
- how much does he realistically think he could improve his draft stock by staying
- how much NIL can he get next year by staying. And I know it is less than even a late 1st round pick. But...does it get close enough to make waiting a year and becoming a higher pick with a bigger 1st contract worth it.
- How important is an education to him and his parents. Yes you can always go back, but very few do. Wasn't Knight pre-Med, but has he gone back to school? It's possible Reed could be a year from graduating just by returning 1 more year.
- How much does he enjoy "the college experience". Many of the pro's will say it was more fun playing in college. And even at 19 he's "still a kid".
- How much do his parents think it is important for him to "be a kid", to continue his growth process into adulthood, that it's not needed to "rush it".
- How much of a factor are his parents in his decision. I think for Reed this is higher than for most. And also for Reed he isn't from a family who has struggled (financially), not saying the Sheppard's are rich, but I don't think they have worried about paying bills. Same for Wagner on this one.
- Just getting into the NBA isn't the goal. The goal is staying there for a long time, maximizing your long-term earning potential. If you go too soon, you risk not being close enough to ready to where they quickly lower your value and you never fully develop, OR you reach time for that 2nd contract before you have elevated your game. What you want to avoid is being drafted, but sent to the G-league for a year, then maybe in year 2 you make the roster but at the end of the bench, and year 3 you start contributing like a good rookie does. Now you sign a 2nd contract, a good one. But had you waited a year, maybe it goes year 1 at the end of the bench, year 2 contributing, year 3 starting, 2nd contract much bigger.
There are risks (& rewards) with any decision he makes. With any decision anyone makes.
Lastly, Will this message board BLOW UP when he declares (even if he later returns)? 1000%
Will he "declare"? Yeah, probably. Even if he 100% intends to return, I think he would to get that invaluable draft feedback. Look what it has done for Reeves and his game.
Unasked questions (by the OP):
Will he "stay in the draft"? I honestly think that is 50/50, and I don't think ANYONE can say with certainty (whose last name isn't Sheppard) that he WILL or WON'T. Those who say he is 100% gone or 100% returning are just blow-hards who like to think of themselves as all-knowing.
Should he "stay in the draft"? That depends...on many factors.
- what kind of feedback does he get from NBA teams (both on where might he be drafted, not just best case, but also most likely case, and worst case), AND what does he need to work on
- how much does he realistically think he could improve his draft stock by staying
- how much NIL can he get next year by staying. And I know it is less than even a late 1st round pick. But...does it get close enough to make waiting a year and becoming a higher pick with a bigger 1st contract worth it.
- How important is an education to him and his parents. Yes you can always go back, but very few do. Wasn't Knight pre-Med, but has he gone back to school? It's possible Reed could be a year from graduating just by returning 1 more year.
- How much does he enjoy "the college experience". Many of the pro's will say it was more fun playing in college. And even at 19 he's "still a kid".
- How much do his parents think it is important for him to "be a kid", to continue his growth process into adulthood, that it's not needed to "rush it".
- How much of a factor are his parents in his decision. I think for Reed this is higher than for most. And also for Reed he isn't from a family who has struggled (financially), not saying the Sheppard's are rich, but I don't think they have worried about paying bills. Same for Wagner on this one.
- Just getting into the NBA isn't the goal. The goal is staying there for a long time, maximizing your long-term earning potential. If you go too soon, you risk not being close enough to ready to where they quickly lower your value and you never fully develop, OR you reach time for that 2nd contract before you have elevated your game. What you want to avoid is being drafted, but sent to the G-league for a year, then maybe in year 2 you make the roster but at the end of the bench, and year 3 you start contributing like a good rookie does. Now you sign a 2nd contract, a good one. But had you waited a year, maybe it goes year 1 at the end of the bench, year 2 contributing, year 3 starting, 2nd contract much bigger.
There are risks (& rewards) with any decision he makes. With any decision anyone makes.
Lastly, Will this message board BLOW UP when he declares (even if he later returns)? 1000%
They aren't. But not because they are SRs. Because they are still flawed, which is the reason they've not had the opportunity to be drafted in the 1st round before. Sears is not big (just 6'1), not fast, a very good 3pt % this year but I wouldn't classify him as a great shooter (just 34% last year). Reeves defense is still not good, but he has improved his value each of the past 2 years, to where now he is probably a 2nd round pick. So you are making an apples to pears comparison.
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