Why is a 7 win season unrealistic to some?
- Thread starter screwduke
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I haven't seen many say it is unrealistic. But, many just don't get their hopes up. And NO....that is not settling for mediocrity. 6 regular season and then a bowl win is realistic. So is another 5 win season. See how that works?
Wouldn't exactly say unrealistic but doubtful if plays aren't made. Actually your mention of the 2 dropped INTs shows why UK didn't win 7 last year. Players were in position to make winning plays and didn't. That's what losing teams do. Players will be in a position to make winning plays this season too. Will they?
That doesn't work. We won 8 in 2006 and 2007, then 7 in 2008 and 2009. So it is a realistic possibility to consider. OP has a point. We won 5 games in 2014 that could easily have been 7 wins if not for a couple of mishandled plays that young teams sometimes can't make in the clutch. People who see 7 wins in our 2015 schedule are making assessments about the 12 matchups. May turn out to be right, or not. But it's doable. To dismiss the possibility outright, without even considering the possibility of improvement, suggests cynicism. As I have said before, I expect 6-7 wins this year.
It's very realistic, but so is going 4-8. If you asked MSU, USC, UF, Missouri, ul fans the likelihood of their beating us, most would probably count the Ky game as a win for their teams. IMO, we won't beat UF or USC. Probably won't beat MSU. That leaves Vandy and ul. If I had to bet my house right now, I'd say we beat Vandy but not ul. My reason for the ul prediction is based solely on Petrino. By the last game of the season, he will have settled on a qb. The chance of them being in the same situation they were in qb-wise last year is unlikely. He will have his offense in place. Granted he lost some play makers, but I have a great deal of respect for his ability to coach an offense. I was a big proponent of playing ul the last game of the season. This is the perfect example of a season when it would have been better for us to have played them right out of the gate.
I see us at 5-7 but more competitive.
I see us at 5-7 but more competitive.
I'm hoping for bowl eligibility. Anything after that, is icing on the cake. However, I think we get 6-8 wins.
Could have easily won 4 games if not for causing an interception against South Carolina. Good fortune runs both ways. You don't win every game that's decided by a touchdown or less.
Coulda won 7, coulda won 4, won 5. There is a lot of optimism about next season. There are those who don't believe and that's their prerogative. My guess is 6 and hope for 7. We could get 8 but things would have to fall into place almost perfectly.
We won 2 his first year. 5 his second. It's reasonable to assume that qb will improve. It's reasonable to assume the oline and Dline will improve. It's reasonable to assume, even as much grief as they get, that the Cb's will be better. The lbs will be better this year save buds spot. Overall depth has improved at every position but rb.
So really the question is do you think the teams on our schedule will be worse, about the same, or improve. I tend to think our schedule is a little easier this year than last and we are a little better. I think 7 should be seen as the goal with 6 being a disappointing step forward and less than 6 a disappointing year but not the end of the world since most experts said it would take stoops 4 or 5 classes to compete in the sec.
So really the question is do you think the teams on our schedule will be worse, about the same, or improve. I tend to think our schedule is a little easier this year than last and we are a little better. I think 7 should be seen as the goal with 6 being a disappointing step forward and less than 6 a disappointing year but not the end of the world since most experts said it would take stoops 4 or 5 classes to compete in the sec.
Great post. That's the thing, I can't believe McWilson dropped that gift of an interception against UL. That is just beyond pathetic. Nobody was around him.
I thought Coach Stoops had really changed the culture and we make those plays now....So that's really disappointing to witness. Also, Towles was awful and couldn't see wide open receivers during the UL game. They blew it. That was an easy 6th win and a bowl trip. Coach Stoops had a great game plan and the players blew it.
So why should we believe we're going to win 7? I see 6 wins. 7 if we're lucky.
How could you say it's reasonable to assume the D-Line will "improve" after losing two players like Smith and Dupree? That is just crazy talk. Even with our more mature DTs, the D-Line won't be improved overall after the loss of those two players.
Considering we changed to a 3-4 D I'll stand by my statement. Bud played outside lber. Z was awesome but was probably 20 pounds too light in the 3-4.
Lewis and Johnson were both first year jucos. Elam was a true freshman backing up NT. We will be 3 deep at all 3 down positions next year with experience returning and miggins is every bit the prospect Z and Johnson were coming out of juco.
I certainly hope you're correct.....A lot depends on Elam. He is crucial for us to have a good season.
How many of those seasons was the UK athletics department committed to something other than basketball? Rich Brooks overachieved with what he had to work with. I think it's safe to say that Stoops will reach that same level with all of the support that he's gotten.
I think its great to think positive but I turn 60 this year snd I have learned to be cautiously optimistic. I think expecting 7 wins is a bit too much. Its very doable but lets remember were still early on in the process. Talent is getting better, depth is getting better but were sill not close in talent and depth to consistently beat the upper tier of the SEC. We fall in with the middlin teams and weve played closer to the rear more often than not so anyone guaranteeing wins over Vandy, Missouri, UF, UT, UL are all a bit too far out there this early on in the rebuild. Were still not the point that we can weather a full season of SEC ball without looking like a mash unit which in turn forces some of these youngins into action before they are physically and mentally ready for that grind.
I have simple goals. Beat the 3 OOC gimmes, compete with the upper crust and win 3 of the middlin games. If we can do that were a step better than last year. Beating UT, UF or UL is icing on the cake. What I've seen for years is we put the cart before the horse way too often. I was guilty for many years myself. These days I am to the point of enjoying the season so long as there is improvement. We just need to cross our fingers that things fall our way. More often than not they havent fallen our way throughout history. A lot of that is on us and a lack of commitment but I fully believe we are now committed. The problem is so are all of our key rivals and SEC foes and they have been for a lot longer than us. My advice is to not expect 8 9 10 win seasons at this point or any point and enjoy them when they occur. Hope for them but don't expect them. We play in a league that will do anything to win and we play one OOC game every year against a team that will win at all cost. Thats a tough road to hoe.
I have simple goals. Beat the 3 OOC gimmes, compete with the upper crust and win 3 of the middlin games. If we can do that were a step better than last year. Beating UT, UF or UL is icing on the cake. What I've seen for years is we put the cart before the horse way too often. I was guilty for many years myself. These days I am to the point of enjoying the season so long as there is improvement. We just need to cross our fingers that things fall our way. More often than not they havent fallen our way throughout history. A lot of that is on us and a lack of commitment but I fully believe we are now committed. The problem is so are all of our key rivals and SEC foes and they have been for a lot longer than us. My advice is to not expect 8 9 10 win seasons at this point or any point and enjoy them when they occur. Hope for them but don't expect them. We play in a league that will do anything to win and we play one OOC game every year against a team that will win at all cost. Thats a tough road to hoe.
Not to rain on everyone's parade but this is déjà vu all over again. 3 years of fair recruiting won't get it done at UK. I wish they would give Stoops an extension since he is the only coach since Curcci to get a handle on recruiting. Plus those 8 win seasons and 7 win seasons were really smoke and mirror seasons. You must remember that it has been Over 50 years since UK has won more game in the SEC than it has lost in a season. That is the real measuring stick for Stoops not wins and a bowl game. don't get me wrong, nothing wrong with either but until UK gets SEC respect, it won't ever be a player.
Everyone is looking at chalk and reputations of schools and projecting the record/outcomes. I think South Carolina, Florida, MSU, Louisville and Mizzou bring less talent to the table this year than last.
We bring more.
I also think playing at home in the polished new digs will enliven the fanbase. A lot of malaise around here, I believe, stems from the fact we didn't have the Spring Game to beat our chests a bit.
I think our offense will be a light year ahead of last, and last year it was pretty good when we werent trying to dig tunnels with Towles head in the A gap.
7 wins. We pick off 2 of the mentioned above.
We bring more.
I also think playing at home in the polished new digs will enliven the fanbase. A lot of malaise around here, I believe, stems from the fact we didn't have the Spring Game to beat our chests a bit.
I think our offense will be a light year ahead of last, and last year it was pretty good when we werent trying to dig tunnels with Towles head in the A gap.
7 wins. We pick off 2 of the mentioned above.
I think seven is possible but to get that UK is going to need to come though in the clutch a few times as there will be multiple close games. Five wins is also possible as well. All in all I think UK gets six or seven as they should beat the three mid majors and get a few wins against the other nine.
Quite true. There is a tendency for many to think in terms of names, instead of teams.
I think UK can get to 8 wins this year, but getting to 8 will require that ball bouncing in their favor in a game or 2. I see 4 that would be huge upsets if UK won, AU, UGA, UT and Missouri. I know everyone is counting Missouri as a W because of who they lost. But they lost more off the 13 team and still won the East with a new RB, new QB and a complete set of new WR plus a couple of first time starters on the OL. Defensively in 13 they lost the best 2 pass rushing DE in the conference and replaced them with another set of best pass rushers in the conference. He has his system in place of RSing and its working like a charm. The other 3 are just big overall talent gaps.
Now for the good part, the first 3 OOC games should be wins, I put Vandy is the wins column too, they were clearly a trainwreck last year, hired 2 new coordinators and will likely be a mess. I also think MSST falls into this column, They are replacing 18 of 22 starters and 30+ of their 2 deep. They lost their RB who kept people honest, Dak is not a good passer and is much more a threat to run the ball, but without a serious threat at RB to take pressure off him he will have a bad season.
That leaves the 3 tossup games, USC, UF and UL. WIn 1 of those and UK goes bowling, go 0 for 3 and its sitting at home again..
Of those 3, I think UF is the most likely, entire new coaching staff, no depth on the OL. Defense is very talented but you can't win if you can't score.
USC, will be better defensively, and have a good RB but big question marks at WR and QB.
UL, big rivalary game, Petrino is an excellent playcaller and barring injury will have qb and wr with a year experience. I expect their defense to drop off some because that is what Grantham's defenses do.
Those toss up games will be close games with a key turnover or penalty making a big difference in the outcome. I don't know if UK can sweep those 3, but I think they get at least 1 so a 6-8 win season is on the way.x
ULL - Win. Record 1-0
South Carolina - We have won this game more than many others, but this one is also on the road and very early in the season. The Gamcocks were pretty bad last year, but a week 2 game in Columbia will mean the stadium will be rocking and intimidating. Fans will still have hope and will be going crazy. This game is certainly possible, but I wouldn't realistically call it likely. Would definitely be an upset on the road, and our first SEC road win in at least 2 years. Record: 1-1
Florida - This one is an early game in the season and that could play into our favor. We almost got them last year, but just couldn't get over the hump. They have an entirely new coaching staff and no one knows how they will adjust. Still, we haven't beaten Florida in almost 3 decades. Could we win this one? Yes, but I am not going to count on it. Record: 1-2
Missouri - The Tigers are a hard team to put your finger on. They have lost some head-scratchers the past two years, but have still come out on top of the East. This one is at home and that should play into our favor, but Missouri has always seemed to reload and they have really beaten us pretty handily the past two years. I think this is definitely one of the more plausible games, but once again, I think we would need to consider it an upset if we won. Record: 1-3
EKU - We get some confidence back. Record 2-3
Auburn - The next Tiger team has a whole lot of speed. We've played them well in the past, but their recruiting has them as one of the best teams in the country year in and year out. We'd need a lot of breaks to get past them. Record 2-4
Miss. State - This is a game that UK fans feel is winnable almost every year. I agree with that year in and year out, but the fact of the matter is that UK has not beaten the Bulldogs since 2008. Dak Prescott returns for the Dawgs and UK has traditionally struggled with running quarterbacks. If I am being extremely positive I think this one is possible, but again... it has to be an upset. Record: 2-5.
Tennessee - I hate the Vols more than most, but they are improving at a rapid rate and Josh Dobbs makes them a true contender. They took us to the woodshed last year, as they have done in almost every year for the past 30 years. I think the Vols were down on our level just a few years ago, but they have made significant strides at improvement. I don't see any way we get a win, despite playing at Lexington. Record: 2-6
Georgia - Two words: Nick Chubb. Record: 2-7
Vanderbilt - I think Vandy improved a bit last year after their head coach took the reins of the defense. However, I don't think they are playing over their heads as much as they were when Franklin was there. They will continue to struggle this year. Record: 3-7
Charlotte - Record: 4-7
Louisville - I think we should have beaten Louisville last year, and I don't think they will improve enough this year to really get the game out of hand. I think that we have a real shot at beating them. It might be considered an upset because they might have a better record seeing as how they won't be playing in the SEC, but I think it isn't that big of an upset. Record: 5-7
So, there is my extremely negative review of each game. It is possible we go 4-8, or 3-9 with terrible terrible luck. I think that South Carolina, Miss. State, Missouri, and Florida are winnable games. They aren't extremely likely, but they are games where we should feel we are in reach. In order to get to 7 wins we have to get wins in 4 of these 6 games: Louisville, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Florida, MSU, or South Carolina. I think that is probably not extremely likely. I think we could possibly get 3 of the 6, but it is pretty high hopes IMO to get 4 of 6. Anyway, that's just me looking at things with what I believe to be a somewhat realistic eye. Now, it is early and we don't know how Towles will do. He has the tools and could blow up. If he does then those games all become a lot more winnable. Still, he has to find a lot more consistency in his passing game before I believe we can be a true threat to beat 4 of 6 of these teams.
South Carolina - We have won this game more than many others, but this one is also on the road and very early in the season. The Gamcocks were pretty bad last year, but a week 2 game in Columbia will mean the stadium will be rocking and intimidating. Fans will still have hope and will be going crazy. This game is certainly possible, but I wouldn't realistically call it likely. Would definitely be an upset on the road, and our first SEC road win in at least 2 years. Record: 1-1
Florida - This one is an early game in the season and that could play into our favor. We almost got them last year, but just couldn't get over the hump. They have an entirely new coaching staff and no one knows how they will adjust. Still, we haven't beaten Florida in almost 3 decades. Could we win this one? Yes, but I am not going to count on it. Record: 1-2
Missouri - The Tigers are a hard team to put your finger on. They have lost some head-scratchers the past two years, but have still come out on top of the East. This one is at home and that should play into our favor, but Missouri has always seemed to reload and they have really beaten us pretty handily the past two years. I think this is definitely one of the more plausible games, but once again, I think we would need to consider it an upset if we won. Record: 1-3
EKU - We get some confidence back. Record 2-3
Auburn - The next Tiger team has a whole lot of speed. We've played them well in the past, but their recruiting has them as one of the best teams in the country year in and year out. We'd need a lot of breaks to get past them. Record 2-4
Miss. State - This is a game that UK fans feel is winnable almost every year. I agree with that year in and year out, but the fact of the matter is that UK has not beaten the Bulldogs since 2008. Dak Prescott returns for the Dawgs and UK has traditionally struggled with running quarterbacks. If I am being extremely positive I think this one is possible, but again... it has to be an upset. Record: 2-5.
Tennessee - I hate the Vols more than most, but they are improving at a rapid rate and Josh Dobbs makes them a true contender. They took us to the woodshed last year, as they have done in almost every year for the past 30 years. I think the Vols were down on our level just a few years ago, but they have made significant strides at improvement. I don't see any way we get a win, despite playing at Lexington. Record: 2-6
Georgia - Two words: Nick Chubb. Record: 2-7
Vanderbilt - I think Vandy improved a bit last year after their head coach took the reins of the defense. However, I don't think they are playing over their heads as much as they were when Franklin was there. They will continue to struggle this year. Record: 3-7
Charlotte - Record: 4-7
Louisville - I think we should have beaten Louisville last year, and I don't think they will improve enough this year to really get the game out of hand. I think that we have a real shot at beating them. It might be considered an upset because they might have a better record seeing as how they won't be playing in the SEC, but I think it isn't that big of an upset. Record: 5-7
So, there is my extremely negative review of each game. It is possible we go 4-8, or 3-9 with terrible terrible luck. I think that South Carolina, Miss. State, Missouri, and Florida are winnable games. They aren't extremely likely, but they are games where we should feel we are in reach. In order to get to 7 wins we have to get wins in 4 of these 6 games: Louisville, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Florida, MSU, or South Carolina. I think that is probably not extremely likely. I think we could possibly get 3 of the 6, but it is pretty high hopes IMO to get 4 of 6. Anyway, that's just me looking at things with what I believe to be a somewhat realistic eye. Now, it is early and we don't know how Towles will do. He has the tools and could blow up. If he does then those games all become a lot more winnable. Still, he has to find a lot more consistency in his passing game before I believe we can be a true threat to beat 4 of 6 of these teams.
It's not unrealistic, just not going to be easy. If we have 6 wins going into UL I think we would all be feeling good about winning 7. I think a lot of UK fans have the "I'll see it when I believe it" view, despite going into the UL game with 5 wins last year (aka one less than 6). Getting that 6th win is going to be hard, just like last year.
I wouldn't count Missouri as a win but they are in the same camp as USC and Florida. Missouri isn't impressive with their talent level. Missouri has won the east by process of elimination. UT hasn't been good enough to win, Florida and USC have been faltering. It's really just Missouri or Georgia that can win the east the past couple years. I don't see Missouri as one of the best teams in the league as much as they are the most consistent. They don't throw games away and have as many off games as Georgia does but talent wise the lesser teams in the league can reach them.
I also don't put MSST in the automatic group. They are clearly in the toss up category however. They lost almost everything but they return a really good QB. A great QB can elevate the play of everyone around him. I group MSST with Florida and UL more so than with Vandy.
It will be interesting to see if Elam is a player deserving of his star rating. He was used sparingly last season and wasn't very effective when he was in the game. A lot of changes take place with a kids body in that first offseason. With a year in the weightroom and on a consistent nutrition program, I would suspect he will make a big step forward. It will be fun to watch.
Defense. ..... 7 is tops but D has to replace a 1st round pick and at least stop the run every once in a while. 5 or 6 wins is my prediction
I would think having a little football knowledge would keep you from making such inaccurate statements. You do realize that one player doesn't lose a game and our defense gave up 44 points after being given a 13 point lead. See how that works?
No doubt our defense was pretty bad....That's about talent level. It's not about coaching. I've been saying all along we are still two years away from having a decent SEC defense because of building talent level through recruiting.
The point is, the McWilson drop are the plays that cost UK games again and again...Just like the previous poster mentioned, that's what LOSER mentality allows. Plays like that drop.
That's what has to change at UK. Some of us are incredibly disappointed to see LOSER plays like that still cost us games against UL and Florida.
I like Coach Stoops. I actually met him and his family while in Florida a few months ago. I support him 100% and really hope this old loser mentality that infects the football program leaves quickly.
I think Missouri is better than MSST, Missouri lost much less and I don't agree with Dak being a great QB, he is a great athlete and runner, but his passing is below average. Mauk at Missouri is certainly or was a head case. They aren't world beaters, but they are a good solid program and while they may not replace the big DE with another AA, he won't be weak. At this time they are better than UF or USC, neither of those know who their qb is going to be and UF will have to start true frosh on the OL. But the truth is none of us know how new people are going to play when the lights get turned on in front of crowds bigger than any they have eveer seen. USC will be almost as loud as LSU.
Good question..... We were within a couple of plays last year, from beating UL & Florida.... We had a couple of good games with other teams too....
This team this year is so much better than last year, counting more depth too...... I don't care what UL fans say, they aren't as good as last year... We have a great chance to win 7 wins this year.... I think even our coaches see a big difference in our team this year, as opposed to last year....
Since you ask the question, I'll give you the real reason that some think that it's unrealistic..... Because we've been through the football grinder... Our hopes are primed and ready every year, only to have them explode.... Plus, some fans can't see that this team is recruiting better, and being coached better, therefore they should be better.......
There's a few fans that have to temper their expectations, because they can't afford to think the best, and get the worst.... Those fans are the emotionally, medically deficient fans, and it would be dangerous for them to get their hopes up and then have a smash down.... It could cause real damage....
To be fair, you have fans like me who are always seeing us go to a bowl game every year, which is just as bad in some ways.... Still, I'm glad to be in this category...... Anything that I can do to give our team some hope, and a desire to work hard, I'm all for that..... Get the excitement rolling... I can feel it today...
Potential "on paper" at UK has often been unrealistically high so a lot of fans are tired of "hoping" and just need a season of PROOF we can win 7 games to get back on the bandwagon.
I admire your optimism, but those of us that generally have more "conservative" estimates of wins have been much more accurate, historically, than those who see us going to a bowl every year. For me, cautiously optimistic going into this season.
I don't see 7 wins as "unrealistic". I mainly look at win totals as likelihood ratios.
<4 wins - 10%
5 wins - 25%
6 wins - 30%
7 wins - 25%
>8 wins - 10%
For me it's "possible" to win 7, but it's not the most likely. Still, it's much more likely than <4 or >8. The extremist predictions are the ones who are likely being unrealistic.
The issue is the number of questionmarks we have.
1. Name the guys who have proven themselves through actual play to be guys you can count on for this yr for average to above-average play?
2. Name the guys who have potential to be really good, but we haven't seen the proven product on-the-field just yet.......at least, not consistently?
-We have a ton of potential, but most of our predictions are based off of guys maturing......and off our own knowledge of football history......and not off of proven past consistent performance.
<4 wins - 10%
5 wins - 25%
6 wins - 30%
7 wins - 25%
>8 wins - 10%
For me it's "possible" to win 7, but it's not the most likely. Still, it's much more likely than <4 or >8. The extremist predictions are the ones who are likely being unrealistic.
The issue is the number of questionmarks we have.
1. Name the guys who have proven themselves through actual play to be guys you can count on for this yr for average to above-average play?
2. Name the guys who have potential to be really good, but we haven't seen the proven product on-the-field just yet.......at least, not consistently?
-We have a ton of potential, but most of our predictions are based off of guys maturing......and off our own knowledge of football history......and not off of proven past consistent performance.
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I see UK as being improved at every position with the exception of the positions played by Dupree and Smith. Maybe even the position played by Smith. I see several teams on the schedule that IMO have regressed from last season
I have been predicting that UK will win at least six and have a good chance at seven.
I have been predicting that UK will win at least six and have a good chance at seven.
