Season Outlook

[ryanbruner]

What is the scenario where Kentucky wins 6-7 games next year? I see a lot of people online just hoping the bottom falls out so we can move forward with Sumrall but I am not at the point where I'd rather see another 4 win season just to get CMS out of here.

I know its easy to say this in hindsight but I was really concerned last year about the overall lack of leadership and the incoming transfer from other P5 schools who had no experience. I like the transfers we've gotten. I'd rather have a MW or MAC all conference performer than a Georgia third string former 5 star. I oddly feel pretty good about the offensive line and Calzada but I can't tell if that's just me being hopeful.

I know the schedule is hard. Its hard every year but you also know that by the end of the year 2-3 teams we play won't perform to expectations. I'm just looking to gauge where everyone is and if there is any hope left at this point.

 

[Brassow2Wall]

I think, at least speaking for myself, we're in a wait-and-see pattern right now. How anyone could be optimistic would be beyond me. Hope? Sure, we can all have hope. But to have an expectation of anything more than 4-5 wins would be setting one's self up for great disappointment.


Some things we know for sure moving into the season; our offense will lack firepower, creativity, or any kind of excitement. It will be slow, boring, and head-scratching. We will likely botch multiple end of half scoring drives by bad play-calling and mismanaging of the clock. Our QB will likely get hurt early, and we will move on to a back-up that most will be excited about until he actually plays and proves that he's not good.


Defense will show promise early, be the cornerstone of the team, but will revert to bend-don't-break tactics with little blitzing or pressure at all.


Stoops will have a red face for majority of season, get all over officials while not paying attention to the play on the field, and tell us "we're gonna get back to work" after back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back losses in the SEC.


What else am I missing?

 

[megablue]

4-8 is all that can reasonably be expected right now. We have to see what they look like in the first game, it seems to me.

 

[entropy13]

2-10 should be enough for Stoops to get a contract extension. Anything more, and the statue that we're already planning on building should be upgraded to Colussus size, taller than the 5/3 Bank building downtown.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

15-0

 

[Catluv]

I think, at least speaking for myself, we're in a wait-and-see pattern right now. How anyone could be optimistic would be beyond me. Hope? Sure, we can all have hope. But to have an expectation of anything more than 4-5 wins would be setting one's self up for great disappointment.


Some things we know for sure moving into the season; our offense will lack firepower, creativity, or any kind of excitement. It will be slow, boring, and head-scratching. We will likely botch multiple end of half scoring drives by bad play-calling and mismanaging of the clock. Our QB will likely get hurt early, and we will move on to a back-up that most will be excited about until he actually plays and proves that he's not good.


Defense will show promise early, be the cornerstone of the team, but will revert to bend-don't-break tactics with little blitzing or pressure at all.


Stoops will have a red face for majority of season, get all over officials while not paying attention to the play on the field, and tell us "we're gonna get back to work" after back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back losses in the SEC.


What else am I missing?

Optimism!!

 

[vhcat70]

Is this Season Outlook thread touching subjects not in the long existing Kentucky Expectations thread?

 

[Boz]

Bleak:

(of a situation) not hopeful or encouraging; unlikely to have a favourable outcome:
"he paints a bleak picture of a company that has lost its way"
"the future looks bleak"

 

[Rembrandt90]

Nobody knows the season outlook.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

What is the scenario where Kentucky wins 6-7 games next year? I see a lot of people online just hoping the bottom falls out so we can move forward with Sumrall but I am not at the point where I'd rather see another 4 win season just to get CMS out of here.

I know its easy to say this in hindsight but I was really concerned last year about the overall lack of leadership and the incoming transfer from other P5 schools who had no experience. I like the transfers we've gotten. I'd rather have a MW or MAC all conference performer than a Georgia third string former 5 star. I oddly feel pretty good about the offensive line and Calzada but I can't tell if that's just me being hopeful.

I know the schedule is hard. Its hard every year but you also know that by the end of the year 2-3 teams we play won't perform to expectations. I'm just looking to gauge where everyone is and if there is any hope left at this point.

4-8 is all that can reasonably be expected right now. We have to see what they look like in the first game, it seems to me.

Agree. I think lur culture and physicality will get back on the right track. I think our schedule is just so brutal i think 4 wins is about all we can see. 6 wins would be a major success.

Uk football is in a tough spot. We have mediocre nil and an absolutely brutal conference. I honestly think unless someone cultivates new nil funding or the schedule gets easier, its going to be tough to do much better.

 

[JPFisher]

As much as I loved the best of Stoops' years, I think we're solidly on a downward trajectory. I don't want us to fail to get rid of Stoops, but I do expect that we have a decent product on the field of we're going to pay out a top tier contract to CMS. If we fail and he gets ousted, oh well, go get another coach. If he passes with flying colors, also great.

I just see the former as the more likely option. Hate to say it.

Love me some UKFB but it's hard to be optimistic right now. I could see us having a 4-5 win season or scraping by to get to a bowl game. It's just so hard to know because we have no idea what kind of production we'll get from the OLine, and I don't see Wolf turning that around. Recruiting prowess or not.

 

[ukalum1988]

As of now, 4-8 feels like where we’ll end up. Obviously the potential is there to do better than that….. we’ll see.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I think, at least speaking for myself, we're in a wait-and-see pattern right now. How anyone could be optimistic would be beyond me. Hope? Sure, we can all have hope. But to have an expectation of anything more than 4-5 wins would be setting one's self up for great disappointment.


Some things we know for sure moving into the season; our offense will lack firepower, creativity, or any kind of excitement. It will be slow, boring, and head-scratching. We will likely botch multiple end of half scoring drives by bad play-calling and mismanaging of the clock. Our QB will likely get hurt early, and we will move on to a back-up that most will be excited about until he actually plays and proves that he's not good.


Defense will show promise early, be the cornerstone of the team, but will revert to bend-don't-break tactics with little blitzing or pressure at all.


Stoops will have a red face for majority of season, get all over officials while not paying attention to the play on the field, and tell us "we're gonna get back to work" after back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back losses in the SEC.


What else am I missing?

This sounds about right.

We know what we are getting with Stoops n the NIL era and it is what it is.

The age old question is if he doesn't do well and is asked to leave how do we get someone that can?

Also, what is realistic success at UK n this era? I don't think anyone with a functioning brain thinks UK can win a national title or sec title n this modern era. Maybe a playoff bid once or twice every 10 seasons if it expands to 16 or more teams perhaps.

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

Who knows. Several questions linger. Will the o line hold up? Do we have an SEC caliber running back? Is the new QB ready for SEC meat grinder. Can the o coordinator mount an effective offense? Does our coach have enough left in the tank to fix what he himself broke? Finally will the obvious problems we had in the locker room be fixed? I hope the answers are positive. Dark days ahead if they are not

 

[etowncatfan]

This season will be a Bloodbath. 4 wins Maybe tops. It will not be pretty. Stay off the message boards if you get your feelings hurt easily .

 

[rivercatinfl]

4-8 is all that can reasonably be expected right now. We have to see what they look like in the first game, it seems to me.

Sad but true. 4-8 looks most likely. I hope they get win 6 or more but I can't see it at this point.

 

[Brassow2Wall]

This sounds about right.

We know what we are getting with Stoops n the NIL era and it is what it is.

The age old question is if he doesn't do well and is asked to leave how do we get someone that can?

Also, what is realistic success at UK n this era? I don't think anyone with a functioning brain thinks UK can win a national title or sec title n this modern era. Maybe a playoff bid once or twice every 10 seasons if it expands to 16 or more teams perhaps.

Gotta hope to become like Mizzou or Ole Miss, if you can. Mizzou gonna have greater access to recruiting with their proximity to St. Louis area, but Ole Miss certainly doesn't have any recruiting advantages over UK, nor do they boast any more history as a football program. I don't think their NIL is much more, if at all. So what's the difference? KIFFIN. Ole Miss rolled the dice a bit on him given his nomadic history, but it has paid off. I think Ole Miss is the blueprint, but will Mitch roll the dice on someone that can be a winner here? Seems unlikely.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Gotta hope to become like Mizzou or Ole Miss, if you can. Mizzou gonna have greater access to recruiting with their proximity to St. Louis area, but Ole Miss certainly doesn't have any recruiting advantages over UK, nor do they boast any more history as a football program. I don't think their NIL is much more, if at all. So what's the difference? KIFFIN. Ole Miss rolled the dice a bit on him given his nomadic history, but it has paid off. I think Ole Miss is the blueprint, but will Mitch roll the dice on someone that can be a winner here? Seems unlikely.

OM went big in the portal and out spent everyone there other than OSU. Mississippi produces more talent than Kentucky, in the 26 class, a c cording to 247 Kentucky has 1 4* kid, Mississippi has 8 4* and 2 5*. Their problem is LSU and Bama signing them.

 

[Brassow2Wall]

OM went big in the portal and out spent everyone there other than OSU. Mississippi produces more talent than Kentucky, in the 26 class, a c cording to 247 Kentucky has 1 4* kid, Mississippi has 8 4* and 2 5*. Their problem is LSU and Bama signing them.

Be that as it may (Mississippi producing more in-state talent on average than UK, and out-spending in the portal during the NIL era), Ole Miss became a true competitor and a legitimate contender upon the hiring of Kiffin. He is the X-factor. If the in-state talent was there before Kiffin, then they simply didn't hire the right coach to capitalize. Now they have, and the belief in him is there thus the spending in the portal.


And to your point about LSU and Bama signing their talent; Kiffin obviously knew that was an issue going in and they were still able to get him hired despite that being a strike against them.


In the end its about money. Most fans think "who would want to go to UK thats a big time coach"? Well who would want to go to Ole Miss, a state that has to fight the likes of Bama and LSU for recruits? Well, somehow they got Kiffin. Can UK make a similar hire? Thats been the age-old question.

 

[satcheluk]

What is the scenario where Kentucky wins 6-7 games next year? I see a lot of people online just hoping the bottom falls out so we can move forward with Sumrall but I am not at the point where I'd rather see another 4 win season just to get CMS out of here.

I know its easy to say this in hindsight but I was really concerned last year about the overall lack of leadership and the incoming transfer from other P5 schools who had no experience. I like the transfers we've gotten. I'd rather have a MW or MAC all conference performer than a Georgia third string former 5 star. I oddly feel pretty good about the offensive line and Calzada but I can't tell if that's just me being hopeful.

I know the schedule is hard. Its hard every year but you also know that by the end of the year 2-3 teams we play won't perform to expectations. I'm just looking to gauge where everyone is and if there is any hope left at this point.

As a financial/business analyst/data nerd my income is spent analyzing opportunities and predicting outcomes and the number one predictor of future success is consistency. That's why so many preseason polls/number of wins predictions have returning production as their primary weighted data point. The portal has opened the doors to more roster fluidity which makes predicting outcomes much more challenging and anyone who is overly confident in the win loss expectations is a fool.

They have clearly updated their overall talent and depth, but this is quite an overhaul which adds more variables to affect the outcome. Some teams, IU and Vandy come to mind, have seen huge leaps with big roster overhauls, but other teams have floundered (FSU). People point to the schedule, so think a similar 4 wins is most likely and that could happen, but we don't know what our opponents' rosters are going to be and UT just went to the winnable home game column with Nico leaving and having to rely on an unproven freshman.

Just a guess at this point, but I would lean 5/6 wins and would be satisfied with that if the losses are closer than last year and the team gets back to playing with the toughness we have grown to respect about Stoops teams. If they regress, then it's fair to put him on the hotseat at the end of the season.

 

[satcheluk]

I think, at least speaking for myself, we're in a wait-and-see pattern right now. How anyone could be optimistic would be beyond me. Hope? Sure, we can all have hope. But to have an expectation of anything more than 4-5 wins would be setting one's self up for great disappointment.


Some things we know for sure moving into the season; our offense will lack firepower, creativity, or any kind of excitement. It will be slow, boring, and head-scratching. We will likely botch multiple end of half scoring drives by bad play-calling and mismanaging of the clock. Our QB will likely get hurt early, and we will move on to a back-up that most will be excited about until he actually plays and proves that he's not good.


Defense will show promise early, be the cornerstone of the team, but will revert to bend-don't-break tactics with little blitzing or pressure at all.


Stoops will have a red face for majority of season, get all over officials while not paying attention to the play on the field, and tell us "we're gonna get back to work" after back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back losses in the SEC.


What else am I missing?

What your missing, and given your moniker it's forgivable that you maybe mostly a basketball fan with less nuanced knowledge of this football team, but this team began having less success when he tried to open up the offense and changed the blocking schemes to accommodate the new OCs. Also, you talk about the bend but don't break defense like that is a negative, but it got us to two 10 win seasons and is the most popular defense in the NFL and works even better in college because the offenses they face aren't pros and more prone to mistakes during prolonged drives. About half of TDs come on drives of 1-5 plays, less so for 6-9 plays and much lower for 10+ play drives according to the data that I have seen, though elite offenses are less held to these expectations. Also, your mismanaging the clock comments are years old. It was a major issue his first several years, but has not been a big concern for years.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

This sounds about right.

We know what we are getting with Stoops n the NIL era and it is what it is.

The age old question is if he doesn't do well and is asked to leave how do we get someone that can?

Also, what is realistic success at UK n this era? I don't think anyone with a functioning brain thinks UK can win a national title or sec title n this modern era. Maybe a playoff bid once or twice every 10 seasons if it expands to 16 or more teams perhaps.

This is basically my position. If nil doesn't get fixed, this is basically what uk will be under whomever is at the helm. The sec is just insane.

Ole Miss certainly doesn't have any recruiting advantages over UK, nor do they boast any more history as a football program. I don't think their NIL is much more,

OM went big in the portal and out spent everyone there other than OSU. Mississippi produces more talent than Kentucky, in the 26 class, a c cording to 247 Kentucky has 1 4* kid, Mississippi has 8 4* and 2 5*. Their problem is LSU and Bama signing them.

Yes they are huge spenders. Mizzou always comes up with a bag for some top elite guys too, they just don't have a squad of them.

 

[Rembrandt90]

I think, at least speaking for myself, we're in a wait-and-see pattern right now. How anyone could be optimistic would be beyond me. Hope? Sure, we can all have hope.

What else am I missing?

Any honest assessment of comments we have seen here over the years will tell us that 75-80% of posters always base their expectations on the last thing they saw. Probably another 10+% here are 100% negative all the time. The last thing we saw was a loss in Lexington to UL to cap off a 4-8 season. So that's what everyone remembers. Nothing upsets this board like a loss to UL, even though Coach Stoops has dominated UL for the most part in recent years.

Factually speaking, the 4-8 season was an outlier at UK in the last decade. But it is the last thing we saw, and the vast majority of fans are heavily reactionary.

Long experience here has revealed that most fans are happy after a win although some characteristically find fault. Following a loss, everyone is unhappy and many become nasty. This week by week behavior cycle defines most fans who post here.

Only a small minority of posters exhibit the will or the awareness to assess a roster for future impact that may differ from what we last saw. People can take that however they want, but the posting evidence speaks for itself every week. The best posters can discuss roster evolution on its own merits, independent of what happened in prior seasons.

College football is an ongoing competition and every season is different. Notwithstanding our 2024 outlier season, Stoops and his coaches have continued to recruit effectively. That is one rational reason for a measure of optimism.

Optimism and pessimism are characteristics of posters, not of teams. Whether a poster or a group of posters is pessimistic (or optimistic) is not related to how the team will play months later. It's the other way around; the most recent play of the team leads most fans to be optimistic or pessimistic.
There may or may not be overlap, but no cause and effect. When a team posts a positive season following a negative season, almost everyone is surprised.

 

[K_TIME]

I can see 4-7 wins....Probably landing at 5 would be my guess. If we get back to better running the ball at people, Vandy, UL, Ole Miss and maybe Tennessee are winnable. My concern is we lost a lot of talent and experience in our front 7 on D. Even if they underperformed...there was proven guys up front.

My main negative moment....Bush Hamden looks like he's down there with Scangerello, and end of Eddie Gran years as able to field a competent offensive team. When I see Calzado practicing throwing 5 yard passes to the flats into a net...I'm like goodness,...here we go with the non stop bubble screen bullcrap. (never works vs. decent SEC teams).

vsToledo	TBD	W
Sat, Sep 6	vsOle Miss	W or L
Sat, Sep 13	vsEastern Michigan	W
Sat, Sep 27	@South Carolina	L
Sat, Oct 4	@Georgia	L
Sat, Oct 18	vsTexas	L
Sat, Oct 25	vsTennessee	Could be W...major QB issues
Sat, Nov 1	@Auburn	L
Sat, Nov 8	vsFlorida	L
Sat, Nov 15	vsTennessee Tech	W
Sat, Nov 22	@Vanderbilt	W or L
Sat, Nov 29	@Louisville	W or L

 

[Rembrandt90]

I can see 4-7 wins....Probably landing at 5 would be my guess. If we get back to better running the ball at people, Vandy, UL, Ole Miss and maybe Tennessee are winnable. My concern is we lost a lot of talent and experience in our front 7 on D. Even if they underperformed...there was proven guys up front.

My main negative moment....Bush Hamden looks like he's down there with Scangerello, and end of Eddie Gran years as able to field a competent offensive team. When I see Calzado practicing throwing 5 yard passes to the flats into a net...I'm like goodness,...here we go with the non stop bubble screen bullcrap. (never works vs. decent SEC teams).

vsToledo	TBD	W
Sat, Sep 6	vsOle Miss	W or L
Sat, Sep 13	vsEastern Michigan	W
Sat, Sep 27	@South Carolina	L
Sat, Oct 4	@Georgia	L
Sat, Oct 18	vsTexas	L
Sat, Oct 25	vsTennessee	Could be W...major QB issues
Sat, Nov 1	@Auburn	L
Sat, Nov 8	vsFlorida	L
Sat, Nov 15	vsTennessee Tech	W
Sat, Nov 22	@Vanderbilt	W or L
Sat, Nov 29	@Louisville	W or L

Stuff happens. Iamaleava just abruptly left TN. Carson Beck left GA. These are but two unexpected examples of the roster churning process that occurs continuously. Every year, every team is different from the previous year. This is why trying to predict the difficulty of the next schedule is futile. It's why trying to anticipate the future strengths and weaknesses of any current roster is a crap shoot. And then, there are injuries. Every team has them. Some teams get eaten up by them. You never know what players will be injured.

I can see with my own eyes that Mark Stoops' staff has addressed the known problems. Our OL is much better. Our QB is much more experienced. They are still adding WRs and LBs. I am more optimistic about the secondary than most people, in part because of their experience and in part because I believe we will have a better pass rush this year.

There will be more significant roster additions this month. Stoops currently has 5 open scholarships to work with. I think there will probably soon be a couple more available.

My point is that it is impossible to predict the next season, although it can be an interesting exercise. Right now, almost everyone is still reacting to 2024. But this 2025 roster has more than a 50% turnover (!), and the new players look good for the most part. So let's see.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Be that as it may (Mississippi producing more in-state talent on average than UK, and out-spending in the portal during the NIL era), Ole Miss became a true competitor and a legitimate contender upon the hiring of Kiffin. He is the X-factor. If the in-state talent was there before Kiffin, then they simply didn't hire the right coach to capitalize. Now they have, and the belief in him is there thus the spending in the portal.


And to your point about LSU and Bama signing their talent; Kiffin obviously knew that was an issue going in and they were still able to get him hired despite that being a strike against them.


In the end its about money. Most fans think "who would want to go to UK thats a big time coach"? Well who would want to go to Ole Miss, a state that has to fight the likes of Bama and LSU for recruits? Well, somehow they got Kiffin. Can UK make a similar hire? Thats been the age-old question.

Ilike Kiffin, I think he is good for the college game. But at the end of the day, he has won the same number of championships and has the same number of playoff appearances as Stoops, who kept OM from making the playoffs. He did that when OM invested millions bringing in transfers. He is a good coach and I like him, but I don't think he is a huge difference maker.p]

 

[bigbluemist]

Whatever Vegas sets the win at, go under