UK played 10 guys and as of right now, has a legit 9-man rotation in big games.
duke used an 8-man rotation and one guy did diddly squat. That's a 7-man rotation. Imagine the 2011-2012 team if any one of our starters went down or rotation pieces couldn't fill in to give our starters breathers. That season breaks down quickly. The bluecifers' biggest challenge will be staying healthy enough to get enough Q1 wins. They will have to do this while pitting scrawny kids against guys who are much more mature than them.
Furthermore, Pope is deliberate with his substituting. He's said something to the effect of playing too many minutes consecutively can increase the risk of an ankle injury. I don't know about you guys, but I don't see a lot of breathers for that team with what is realistically a 7-man rotation. duke had a game time decision on one of their players for a foot injury. If he's able to play, that should help depth.
But yeah, one injury and duke is in trouble. Doubly so if the injury is to one of their guards. They also need to win plenty of games against Q1 opponents, which won't be easy to do once they get in conference and actually start gelling.
It's so scarily similar to the precarious situations we saw in the early days of Cal's tenure. Harrellson gets hurt in 2010-11? Done. Nerlens Noel goes down? No longer an NCAAT team. Now, duke could be fine this year, but playing an older, more physical team last night already took out two of their guys. I think Amari might've actually dislocated that dude's shoulder with that one screen in the 2H.
How many times have more mature teams beaten up a crop of Cal freshmen in recent memory?
OFTEN.