As we all know, that USC loss is like a lead weight hanging around UK's neck. So I was looking at why is USC a Q4 loss?
So USC sits at 277, going 1-2 vs Q1, 1-3 vs Q2, 1-5 vs Q3, and 5-1 vs Q4.
It looks evident that Q3 record is what kills them. But how do they compare to other bad Power 6 schools?
198 0-3 / 1-5 / 3-1 / 5-2 Boston College (missing a Q1 win, has 1 more Q4 loss, but better vs Q3)
200 1-6 / 0-4 / 1-4 / 5-0 Florida St (1 less Q2 win, but not have Q4 loss)
213 0-8 / 0-2 / 2-0 / 5-2 Oregon St (Q3 is better than USC, but 1 extra Q4 loss, AND 0 Q1+Q2 wins compared to 2 for USC)
216 1-5 / 0-3 / 1-3 / 5-0 Minnesota (no Q4 losses, but 1 Q1+Q2 wins vs 2 for USC)
240 0-5 / 0-5 / 1-3 / 5-2 Georgetown (0 Q1+Q2 wins, almost as bad vs Q3, and 1 more Q4 loss than USC)
277 1-2 / 1-3 / 1-5 / 5-1 USC
290 0-3 / 1-7 / 1-3 / 1-4 Cal (so USC is only 13 spots ahead of a team that has only won 20% of their Q4 games?)
335 0-4 / 0-7 / 0-2 / 2-4 Louisville
Looking at the above data alone, I would rank those teams BC, Minnesota, USC, FSU, Oregon St, Georgetown, Cal, UL
Minnesota is equal to or better than FSU in all 4 Quads, but sits 16 spots behind FSU.
The closest two IMO are FSU and Oregon St, so it appears FSU should drop.
So I would estimate USC should be in the 205-220 range (relative to those other P6 schools), not almost 280.
I am a Statistician. So analyzing and interpreting data is what I've done for 30 years, and these data do not make sense!
So USC sits at 277, going 1-2 vs Q1, 1-3 vs Q2, 1-5 vs Q3, and 5-1 vs Q4.
It looks evident that Q3 record is what kills them. But how do they compare to other bad Power 6 schools?
198 0-3 / 1-5 / 3-1 / 5-2 Boston College (missing a Q1 win, has 1 more Q4 loss, but better vs Q3)
200 1-6 / 0-4 / 1-4 / 5-0 Florida St (1 less Q2 win, but not have Q4 loss)
213 0-8 / 0-2 / 2-0 / 5-2 Oregon St (Q3 is better than USC, but 1 extra Q4 loss, AND 0 Q1+Q2 wins compared to 2 for USC)
216 1-5 / 0-3 / 1-3 / 5-0 Minnesota (no Q4 losses, but 1 Q1+Q2 wins vs 2 for USC)
240 0-5 / 0-5 / 1-3 / 5-2 Georgetown (0 Q1+Q2 wins, almost as bad vs Q3, and 1 more Q4 loss than USC)
277 1-2 / 1-3 / 1-5 / 5-1 USC
290 0-3 / 1-7 / 1-3 / 1-4 Cal (so USC is only 13 spots ahead of a team that has only won 20% of their Q4 games?)
335 0-4 / 0-7 / 0-2 / 2-4 Louisville
Looking at the above data alone, I would rank those teams BC, Minnesota, USC, FSU, Oregon St, Georgetown, Cal, UL
Minnesota is equal to or better than FSU in all 4 Quads, but sits 16 spots behind FSU.
The closest two IMO are FSU and Oregon St, so it appears FSU should drop.
So I would estimate USC should be in the 205-220 range (relative to those other P6 schools), not almost 280.
I am a Statistician. So analyzing and interpreting data is what I've done for 30 years, and these data do not make sense!
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