Western, actually my daughter works for a college in California so it isn't SACS that she dealt with but another similar agency. But, the issues are still basically the same.
The answer to your question is a qualified yes. The COI will make the final decision with full knowledge of what SACS did but that committee is only as good as the strongest members. Unfortunately, the committee isn't balanced enough with members who are (or were) not directly involved in athletic programs.
No matter what, the SACS decision is a BIG negative for UNC. I think a lighter punishment is less likely now but we all know that ONE powerful voice can change the way a committee votes.
BTW, I hope UNC sends Bradley Bethel to defend their case to the COI. UNC would get the death penalty!