I've pulled this out previously and I'm sure will pull it out many times leading up to the COI's findings. But below are the typical penalties for major violations as described by he 2012-13 NCAA manual (which apparently is the standard that UNC will be judged).
For those who don't know Lack of Institutional Control (LOIC) is not only considered the highest infraction (Level 1) but is the worst a school can be charged with. While the exact punishment for LOIC is not the same in every case, the list of potential punishments are all pretty significant. (and especially in the case of willful breaking of rules, academic fraud, extended time period of cheating etc., all of which UNC is guilty of.)
Penalties for a major violation shall be significantly more severe than those for a secondary violation and shall be consistent with the penalty structure and guidelines used by other regulatory committees (e.g., Division I Committee on Academic Performance). The Committee on Infractions may impose one or more of the following penalties: (Revised: 4/28/11 for any institution that receives a notice of inquiry after 4/28/11)
(a) Public reprimand and censure.
(b) Probationary period for up to five years (including a periodic in-person monitoring system, written institutional reports, and institutional affirmation that current athletics policies and procedures conform to all requirements of NCAA regulations).
(c) Suspension of institutional staff members from their duties for a specified period if such staff members are determined by the Committee on Infractions to have engaged in or condoned a major violation.
(d) Reduction in the number of financial aid awards (as defined in Bylaw 15.02.4.1) that may be awarded during a specified period.
(e) Reduction in the number of expense-paid recruiting visits to the institution in the involved sport.
(f ) Prohibition against, or limits on, recruiting activities by some or all coaching staff members in an involved sport.
(g) Prohibition against specified competition in the sport (including, but not limited to, postseason competition, invitational tournaments and exempt contests or dates of competition, such as foreign tours or contests in Alaska or Hawaii), particularly in cases in which:
(1) An involved individual remains employed at the institution;
(2) A significant competitive advantage resulted from the violation;
(3) The violation reflects a lack of institutional control, failure to monitor a program, or a violation of the cooperative principle set forth in Bylaw 32.1.4;
(4) The violation includes findings of academic fraud; or
(5) The institution is a repeat violator (as defined in Bylaw 19.5.2.1).
(h) Vacation of a record in a case in which a student-athlete has competed while ineligible, particularly in a case involving academic fraud, serious intentional violations, direct involvement of a coach or a high-ranking school administrator, a large number of violations, competition while academically ineligible, a finding of failure to monitor or lack of institutional control, a repeat violator, or a case in which vacation or a similar penalty would be imposed if the underlying violations were secondary. The penalties may include one or more of the following:
(1) Vacation of individual records and performances;
(2) Vacation of team records and performances, including wins from the career record of the head coach in the involved sport, or, in applicable cases, reconfiguration of team point totals; or
(3) Return of individual or team awards to the Association.
(i) Financial penalty.
(j) Prohibition against television appearances of the institution in the sport in which the violation occurred.
(k) Requirement that an institution that has been found in violation, or that has an athletics department staff member who has been found in violation of the provisions of NCAA legislation while representing another institution, show cause why a penalty or additional penalty should not be imposed, if, in the opinion of the Committee on Infractions, the institution has not taken appropriate disciplinary or corrective action against athletics department personnel involved in the infractions case or any other institutional employee, if the circumstances warrant, or a representative of the institution’s athletics interests.
(1) The penalty imposed under this provision may include a recommendation to the membership that the institution’s membership in the Association be suspended or terminated.
(2) “Appropriate disciplinary or corrective action” may include severance of relations with any representative of the institution’s athletics interests who may be involved; the debarment of the head coach or any assistant coach involved in the infraction from coaching, recruiting, or speaking engagements; and the
prohibition of all recruiting in a specified sport for a specified period. The nature and extent of such action shall be determined by the institution, but the determination of whether the action is appropriate in the fulfillment of NCAA policies and principles, and its resulting effect on any institutional penalty, shall be solely that of the Committee on Infractions (or the Infractions Appeals Committee per Bylaw 19.2).
(3) In the event the Committee on Infractions imposes additional penalties upon an institution, the institution shall be provided the opportunity to appear before the committee; further, the institution shall be provided the opportunity to appeal (per Bylaw 19.6.2) any additional penalty imposed by the Committee on Infractions.
(l) Other penalties as appropriate.