UK vs. Duke 2016-2017 (player breakdown)

[rabidcatfan]

Now that the rosters seem to be set, I thought it'd be fun to do a breakdown of each team and see how they match up with each other.

ROSTERS

KENTUCKY -

F Derek WIllis
G Dominique Hawkins
G Mychal Mulder
G E.J. Floreal
G Dillon Pulliam
G Isaiah Briscoe
C Isaac Humphries
G Jonny David
F Tai Wynyard
F Bam Adebayo
G De'Aaron Fox
G Malik Monk
F Wenyen Gabriel
F Sacha Killeya-Jones
G Brad Calipari

DUKE -

F Amille Jefferson
G Matt Jones
G Nick Pagliuca
G Grayson Allen
F Sean Obi
F Chase Jeter
G Luke Kennard
C Antonio Vrankrovic
F Justin Robinson
G Brennan Besser
F Harry Giles
F Jayson Tatum
G Frank Jackson
C Marques Bolden
F Javin DeLaurier

UK and Duke are tied with 6 five-star players apiece. Duke has 8 former McDonald's All-Americans (although I question the validity of Matt Jones, Amille Jefferson, and Luke Kennard named to the game) on their team vs. UK's 5, so Duke has the upper-hand there (for once).

On paper, Duke is stronger with more former burger boys and more 4-star players than UK boasts (5 for Duke vs. 2 for UK - although Derek WIllis was a 4-star for much of his high school career, but dropped to 3-star status after a lackluster senior season).

That being said, I will now compare the likely starting 5's for both teams:

KENTUCKY -

G - De'Aaron Fox
G - Isaiah Briscoe
G - Malik Monk
F - Derek Willis
F - Bam Adebayo

DUKE -

G - Frank Jackson
G - Grayson Allen
F - Jayson Tatum
F - Amille Jefferson
F - Harry Giles

Jackson vs. Fox - (push) - both are excellent guard prospects and both are ranked very highly in their class. I haven't seen much of them in a vs. setting so I'll call it a push although I would tend to give the slight edge to Fox because of his all around skill.

Briscoe vs. Allen (adv. Briscoe) - Allen is an offensive machine (ballhog really), but we saw this matchup already last season with frosh Briscoe frustrating the more experienced Allen and holding him to a season low in points. I'd expect a very similar outcome should they meet again.

Monk vs. Tatum (push) - although Tatum is a tremendous talent, so is Monk. Monk is a few inches shorter, but he is more athletic and is a better shooter than Tatum.

Willis vs. Jefferson (push) - Willis and Jefferson are very similar in their games with Jefferson being more skilled off the ball and a better rebounder and defender, but I'd take Willis beyond the arc over Jefferson every day of the week. Also, if WIllis improves his defense and reboundling like he did last season, then I'd possibly give the advantage to WIllis because of Jefferson's untested knee.

Adebayo vs. Giles (adv. Giles) - Although Bam is an amazing physical player, Giles is more skilled at every aspect of the game. The only thing that will sway this to a push or maybe even advantage Adebayo would be Giles untested knee after tearing his ACL.

Starting Five Advantage - PUSH

Second Five -

KENTUCKY -

Dominique Hawkins
Mychal Mulder
Wenyen Gabriel
Sacha Killeya-Jones
Isaac Humphries

DUKE -

Luke Kennard
Matt Jones
Javin DeLaurier
Marques Bolden
Chase Jeter

Hawkins vs. Kennard (adv. Kennard) - I love Dom to death, but Kennard is the better player.
Mulder vs. Jones (adv. Jones) - Again, this is a no-brainer
Gabriel s. DeLaurier (adv. Gabriel) - Gabriel is more athletic and much better around the basket than DeLaurier is, period.
Killeya-Jones vs. Bolden (push) - both players will suffer some growing pains as they struggle to adjust to the college system, so I don't think there is an advantage for either one of them.
Humphries vs. Jeter (push) - although Jeter was the higher ranked player and a burger boy, he didn't show me much during his debut season at Duke to make me think he's that much better than Isaac.

2nd Five Advantage DUKE

I dont expect much if any production from either teams remaining players, but when you look at each team side by side, there isn't much difference between them. They are both going to be strong in the frontcourt and the backcourt. Both teams boast multiple future NBA'ers and both teams are coached by Hall of Fame coaches.

I'd say that in conclusion, a game between these two teams in March (or April God willing) would be an epic showdown with the result in doubt until the last minute.

 

[Aike]

Fox is a true pg, a defensive pest, and would eat Jackson's lunch. Jackson wants no part of running the point with Fox guarding him.

 

[Willy4UK]

I think pg is going to be a problem for Duke this year.

I'll give us the nod on team chemistry.

With Allen and Tatum jacking up shots like a high school all star game, I think they are going to be suffer unity.

 

[BourbonBalz]

Both rosters are stacked. Where I think we have an advantage is quickness and explosiveness, especially in the back court. We just have better athletes there.

 

[KA4Prez]

Appreciate you putting it together. However, I will disagree on a few things.

Fox vs Jackson - Fox. Period. Both Freshman, but if I'm wanting a PG to run my team as a Freshman, it's Fox all day.

Briscoe vs Allen - Allen. Period. Grayson Allen is the best returning player in college and was a 1st Team AA level player last year.

Until Giles shows something, he's hard to rate. The Giles pre-injury is the best player in the game, if he isn't the same, he's lower than any of the UK Frosh he matches up with.

Their bench is stronger, which is where they have the big advantage. However, you can only play so many guys and barring an injury, it is not K's style to go 10-11 deep. One of Jeter or Bolden will not get a ton of minutes, and both Jones and Kennard will probably get more to start the season depending on the match-up and if Jackson/Giles struggle.

Someone made the comparison the other day of this being Duke vs UK of 2014-15, and while their roster isn't as loaded, I can see the comparison. In the end, there's a big piece of the pie to be determined on how much the Freshman "get it." You only need a few special players who just strike gold, and the rest of the roster becomes pretty irrelevant.

 

[JJBlue06]

I'll take our athleticism. Duke will be a far better shooting team, and probably has the advantage with veteran leadership. I like our defense better and I'd also take our bench over as well. Would be a matchup for the ages for sure.

 

[TheOtherGreatOne]

Duke doesn't have a point guard again. Jackson is a shooting guard just like Allen. I believe Calipari can get his players to play together better than rat face. You can only play with one basketball. Jones and Kinnard both shoot set shots not jumpshots and can't even get a shot off if you guard them. Tatum and Jackson are going to shoot it every time they get it not good for team chemistry. I will believe that a guy with 2 blown acl's is a great player when I see it and not before.

 

[Deli owl]

I hope Briscoe doesn't start or they will play 5 vs 4 on the other end.

 

[rabidcatfan]

Appreciate you putting it together. However, I will disagree on a few things.

Fox vs Jackson - Fox. Period. Both Freshman, but if I'm wanting a PG to run my team as a Freshman, it's Fox all day.

Briscoe vs Allen - Allen. Period. Grayson Allen is the best returning player in college and was a 1st Team AA level player last year.

Until Giles shows something, he's hard to rate. The Giles pre-injury is the best player in the game, if he isn't the same, he's lower than any of the UK Frosh he matches up with.

Their bench is stronger, which is where they have the big advantage. However, you can only play so many guys and barring an injury, it is not K's style to go 10-11 deep. One of Jeter or Bolden will not get a ton of minutes, and both Jones and Kennard will probably get more to start the season depending on the match-up and if Jackson/Giles struggle.

Someone made the comparison the other day of this being Duke vs UK of 2014-15, and while their roster isn't as loaded, I can see the comparison. In the end, there's a big piece of the pie to be determined on how much the Freshman "get it." You only need a few special players who just strike gold, and the rest of the roster becomes pretty irrelevant.

I appreciate the rebuttal. I will still take Briscoe over Allen however based on their previous showdown. Allen is a volume scorer, but is easily frustrated when someone like Briscoe is guarding him and the whistles aren't blowing. On a neutral court, I like Briscoe in that match-up.

As for Giles, I agree that his knee-injury (much the same in the case for Amille Jefferson) will make predicting what he can/can't do more challenging. You just never know how these kids knees will adapt to surgery and the mental aspect of the players getting back out on the court and playing to full speed. If Giles is 100%, he'll be the best player out there, but that might not happen.

 

[rabidcatfan]

I hope Briscoe doesn't start or they will play 5 vs 4 on the other end.

He will start.

 

[TheOtherGreatOne]

You only play with one ball at a time and when you have a gunner at point you have problems. Look how good duke was supposed to be last year with Thorton at point guard. I didn't see them in the final 4.

 

[Willy4UK]

I think people saying they don't have a "true" PG are just looking for an excuse to say they may not be as good as people think. They will be. It won't be an issue. They just won a title 6 years ago without a "true" point guard.

Maybe you're right, but I think Jackson will get a lot of pressure from Allen and Tatum to get them the rock. All while trying to showcase his own stuff. He'll be a shoot first point guard, and it may not sit well with Allen and tatum

 

[TheOtherGreatOne]

Well I see that I am not the only one that sees this.

 

[Notorious23]

UK legitimately 10 deep. Duke 9 deep.

 

[rwtcat123]

Briscoe will start but if he doesnt significantly improve FT and JUMP shot he will see decreased minutes and we will see MORE of Willis, Gabriel and Hawkins as season progresses with Monk and Fox.
In this scenario, we can go BIG with Adebayo and Hump and 4-5.
We will also see Briscoe play back up PG about 5-8 minutes a game to help him develop and give Fox a breather. I think he is OUR second best option.

 

[Willy4UK]

I just don't think that at all. If Jackson is running the point he's a good enough creator to get shots for other guys and there's no reason to believe K won't keep that offense balanced enough to keep everyone happy. He's a pretty good passer. He's not Tyler Ulis, John Wall, or Rajon Rondo at finding guys, but I don't expect that team to have any offensive problems.

His NBA Draft report says passing is a weakness and he settles for quick jump shots. I think he will have trouble adjusting.

Weaknesses

"-Not always the most willing passer. Scoring mentality. Gets tunnel vision on the move. Hasn't shown that he can run a team consistently.
-Settles for deep, contested jumpers early in the clock."

 

[CalCat57]

He will start.

And he should.

 

[Willy4UK]

peoples' scouting reports say all kinds of things that aren't always accurate. James Young was considered by Chad Ford to be a good passer . K won't have a problem getting whoever runs the point for that team to distribute the ball some. It won't matter, likely, anyway. They're gonna have all 5 starters in double figures most likely.

Well, Chad Ford does suck.

I'm hoping my "gut-feeling" pays off here, Spears

 

[.S&C.]

Luke Kennard is going to be a drainer. I bet he's dukes go to three point threat and it one of the most dangerous shooters of the year. I know people are hoping not, but he's got it all shooting the ball.

 

[Willy4UK]

well me too, obviously.

I just tend to follow my head instead of my gut.

Follow with the heart and never with reason.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I honestly expect that by tourney time Duke will look like this:

Starters
G Jackson- only thing close to a true PG they have.
G Allen- best perimeter player, NPOY candidate, he's a lock.
G Jones- experienced, plays defense and can shoot (best for spacing).
F Tatum- K loves playing mismatches with SF's at the 4 spot.
F Giles- best inside player.

Key Reserves
G Kennard- can come in for all three guards, gets 20+mpg.
F Jefferson- can come in for either forward spot, gets 20+mpg.
F Bolden- comes in at the 5 when they have foul trouble. Probably gets around 10mpg.

Bench
F Jeter- will get pushed out of the rotation by January (start of ACC play), he was recruited over (Bolden).
F DeLaurier- spot duty.

K's championship recipe almost always has a SF at the 4 spot. Tatum is not the best shooter, but is an incredible scorer. Moving him to the 4 means that K can have three shooters on the floor at all times (three out of Jackson, Allen, Jones, and Kennard). That is great for spacing.

Giles, Jefferson, and Bolden rotate inside giving them exceptional depth at the 4 and 5 spots. Jeter will ride the pine. If he couldn't beat Plumlee out for minutes, I doubt he can get minutes over two studs from a vastly superior recruiting class and a 5th year Senior.

I would be surprised if K goes away from his system just to appease his bigs. His last three titles have been won with SFs playing the "stretch 4" spot. His last three teams have had guys who would play the 3 on most teams at the 4 (Parker, Winslow, Ingram).

 

[Cawood86]

I hope Briscoe doesn't start or they will play 5 vs 4 on the other end.

Ignorant post

 

[Cawood86]

Seems most have already given the title to dUKe.

 

[bucsrule8872]

My comparison:

Starters
G Fox > Jackson
G Briscoe < Allen
G Monk > Jones
F Willis < Tatum
F Adebayo = Giles

Key Reserves
G/F Gabriel = Kennard
F Killeya-Jones < Jefferson
F Humphries < Bolden

Neither coach will go more than 8 deep in March (when they would likely meet).

I give Duke the edge because their key reserves are a little better, IMHO.

Both teams are very good. On paper. We will see how both teams translate to the court.

Early on, it kind of reminds me of 2012, where UNC had a monster team and were preseason number one, but UK was considered right there with them, but people were giving UNC the nod because their returning guys were suppose to be better than ours. Of course, I think K is a better coach than Roy.

 

[MdWIldcat55]

I hope Briscoe doesn't start or they will play 5 vs 4 on the other end.

I think that game already happened, and Briscoe had 12 points and three steals while shutting down Grayson Allen all night and forcing him into four turnovers.

Your post is what is known as an epic fail.

 

[kyjeff1]

You only play with one ball at a time and when you have a gunner at point you have problems. Look how good duke was supposed to be last year with Thorton at point guard. I didn't see them in the final 4.

We had the best pg but we weren't in the FF either.

 

[kyjeff1]

Briscoe will start but if he doesnt significantly improve FT and JUMP shot he will see decreased minutes and we will see MORE of Willis, Gabriel and Hawkins as season progresses with Monk and Fox.
In this scenario, we can go BIG with Adebayo and Hump and 4-5.
We will also see Briscoe play back up PG about 5-8 minutes a game to help him develop and give Fox a breather. I think he is OUR second best option.

One thing is certain, Briscoe can only improve his short, I don't think it's physically possible to get worse.
He actually started coming around at the end of the season so there is hope.

 

[kyjeff1]

My comparison:

Starters
G Fox > Jackson
G Briscoe < Allen
G Monk > Jones
F Willis < Tatum
F Adebayo = Giles

Key Reserves
G/F Gabriel = Kennard
F Killeya-Jones < Jefferson
F Humphries < Bolden

Neither coach will go more than 8 deep in March (when they would likely meet).

I give Duke the edge because their key reserves are a little better, IMHO.

Both teams are very good. On paper. We will see how both teams translate to the court.

Early on, it kind of reminds me of 2012, where UNC had a monster team and were preseason number one, but UK was considered right there with them, but people were giving UNC the nod because their returning guys were suppose to be better than ours. Of course, I think K is a better coach than Roy.

The fact that UNC lost their pg didn't hurt either.

 

[meteordealer]

That being said, I will now compare the likely starting 5's for both teams:

KENTUCKY -

G - De'Aaron Fox
G - Isaiah Briscoe
G - Malik Monk
F - Derek Willis
F - Bam Adebayo

With Matthews leaving, that would only leave us with Hawkins as a sub. I still don't know what Mulder is capable of. I would prefer to start a bigger lineup and have either Fox or Briscoe coming off the bench.

I would probably start:

Briscoe
Monk
Willis
SKJ
Bam

 

[KWilt43atbuzz]

If we play Duke in the FF we will beat them like a rented mule.
UK will mop the floor with Duke.
Our guards will run them in the ground.
Not worried about Duke at all.

 

[Fitch44]

I just don't think that at all. If Jackson is running the point he's a good enough creator to get shots for other guys and there's no reason to believe K won't keep that offense balanced enough to keep everyone happy. He's a pretty good passer. He's not Tyler Ulis, John Wall, or Rajon Rondo at finding guys, but I don't expect that team to have any offensive problems.

Scheyer and Smith were upperclassmen. Big difference. Jasckson has shown he loves to shoot. Obviously ratface will work with him but it is completely reasonable to think that Jackson, allen and tatum running together could be an issue. 2 are freshman. It is not a bad problem to have but not sure why you don't think it could an issue.

 

[Fitch44]

peoples' scouting reports say all kinds of things that aren't always accurate. James Young was considered by Chad Ford to be a good passer . K won't have a problem getting whoever runs the point for that team to distribute the ball some. It won't matter, likely, anyway. They're gonna have all 5 starters in double figures most likely.

Double figure scorers with leading assist man averaging 1.3 assists per game. Will catch up to them.

 

[stoneycat_20]

UK legitimately 10 deep. Duke 9 deep.

So who are the legit 10 for UK?I see maybe 8 legit

 

[smooth as butter]

Jones will be starting over Jackson at least in the early part of the season.

 

[musrat59]

I think the Dookies have the wildcard in flopping and tripping on us.

 

[Blueisbest]

As it stands right now I give the nod to Kentucky when it comes to overall athleticism, defense, and quickness. Duke has the advantage in outside shooting and slightly more quality depth.

If we played a best of 7 series, I would pick Kentucky 4 games to 2.

 

[Deli owl]

I think that game already happened, and Briscoe had 12 points and three steals while shutting down Grayson Allen all night and forcing him into four turnovers.

Your post is what is known as an epic fail.

If it happened this upcoming season I missed it. I'll expect him to shut Allen down again then.

 

[Deli owl]

With Matthews leaving, that would only leave us with Hawkins as a sub. I still don't know what Mulder is capable of. I would prefer to start a bigger lineup and have either Fox or Briscoe coming off the bench.

I would probably start:

Briscoe
Monk
Willis
SKJ
Bam

baring injury, there is zero chance Fox doesn't start.

 

[brdmn22]

I think people saying they don't have a "true" PG are just looking for an excuse to say they may not be as good as people think. They will be. It won't be an issue. They just won a title 6 years ago without a "true" point guard.

I have to disagree with this. Duke is going to be the favorite to win it all next year, and they should be. In terms of talent and experience, nobody matches them next year. However, as we all know, the favorite doesn't always win it all.

Duke has a ton of shooters/scorers, and they'll be really tough to stop offensively. Defensively, they won't be that good. Giles is probably the only elite defender they have. Most nights, they'll win just because they have a ton of talented players. The issue is when they are matched up in the tournament with similarly talented teams. Having a young team with a ton of scorers and no one who really knows how to run a team is an issue. Jackson will be a serviceable PG, but freshman PGs typically struggle. Throw in the fact that he's not really a PG, and I can see that being an issue. I don't think the PG issue is overblown for Duke. With that said, I still think they have the best chance to win it all next year.

 

[jrpross]

If we played a best of 7 series, I would pick Kentucky 4 games to 2.