It takes a lot of money or a injury to move a point spread 3.5 points. Hopefully we don’t have anyone hurt.
UK opened as a 3.5 favorite against the Vols and now it’s a pick em
- Thread starter catzfanjim
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I'll be honest with you, it's gotten to the point where I would be legit surprised if we won.
After last week, WHY would any high level bettor put money on UK to win?????
We played HORRIBLY on both sides of the ball after 2 weeks of practice. What makes it worse is listening to our coaching staff tell the media that we just need to play smarter and win one-on-one matchups. Didn't sound too convincing to me, so you know it didn't to PROFESSIONAL gamblers.
I HATE the Vols, but this game scares the crap out of me because of how our team played against MSU.
We played HORRIBLY on both sides of the ball after 2 weeks of practice. What makes it worse is listening to our coaching staff tell the media that we just need to play smarter and win one-on-one matchups. Didn't sound too convincing to me, so you know it didn't to PROFESSIONAL gamblers.
I HATE the Vols, but this game scares the crap out of me because of how our team played against MSU.
You guys are totally different at home than on the road.
Pick'm is about right. Maybe even UT -2.
Cats havent shown they are over Georgia....yet.
Seems to take about 3 weeks.
I think it will be close...and the good thing about that is Tennessee hasn't shown they can win "close".
Cats havent shown they are over Georgia....yet.
Seems to take about 3 weeks.
I think it will be close...and the good thing about that is Tennessee hasn't shown they can win "close".
Honestly its a bad matchup for us .. their offense against a banged up D ??? And us having to rely on Will to equal or outperform their QB ? No wonder the line is moving .
So far that's been the case.
Actually an odd game in that both teams are 0-2 and a bye week thrown in.
Depth on UT is their biggest concern, but they definitely have a group of home run hitters.
I expect this week will see a return of a UK grind. Lol.....kind of ironic that after two years of "gotta throw the ball" from a lotta the base most of us now realize "gee, running effectively might just work".
Those opening lines get pounced on immediately by the Vegas high rollers and will often change 2, 3, 4 points in the first hour or two. It's been pretty steady after the opening line UK -1, UK +1, Pickem.
Until gambling is legal in all states, teams in states with a high betting population like Tennessee will be shaded. They make UK a 3-5 point favorite, Tennessee fans get online and bet UT like crazy. Line moves to pick em just based on the natural progression of more UT fans betting on UT than people betting on UK.
People from all over the world bet on college football, much of it by the high rollers in Vegas, I'm willing to bet the amount of the total wagered by fans in Tennessee is very small, and wouldn't move the line. Right now the money is split about equal between these two UK -1:
NCAA College Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting
NCAAFB College Football Public Betting Information from Several Top Online Sports Books. See Who The Public is Betting.
I always thought it was the opposite. Casual bettors taking advantage of CLV with smaller stakes early in the week, but the heavy bettors/syndicates taking advantage of the higher limits later in the week. Probably a combo.
(I prefer live-betting)
The lines tend to correct themselves as the week goes by so most sharps look to find value early, whereas the public usually comes in later.
I asked this last week but how much money does it take to move a line, it seemed like I remember it being 500k moved the line a 1/2 point.
I don’t know that but Action Network has 51% of public bets on UT with 80% of all money bet total on UT.
97% of money is bet on the over 56.5 points. https://sportsaction.app/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sa...sees-big-swing-following-opening-release/amp/
I don’t see a date on the article but I think it’s 3 years ago and it’s the exact same thing happening now. Vegas loves the bold so does the sec
I don’t see a date on the article but I think it’s 3 years ago and it’s the exact same thing happening now. Vegas loves the bold so does the sec
Well that's on you! and your lack of faith and trust it the coaching staff and players.
All the money is on Tennessee it appears, as the line has moved to us bein 1 pt under dogs at home.
I mean damn man, UK is getting no respect. Just heard on Danny and Dusty TN was one of their 3 locks of the week, I mean WTF?
Why would they respect us? Our best wins are against 4-4 Florida/LSU. We have only beaten one team above .500 and that's Chattanooga and we looked awful against MSU. So after losing back-to-back games by a combined 31 points, it's hard to complain that someone thinks we'll lose to a team we've only beaten three times in 30 years.
Yeah, I see a similar score to that of Georgia. Something like 30-13 or 27-14.
Yeah, it's hard to believe one injury can wreck a team but it seems like when OX went down after McCall had already got hurt there was just no replacement for them. Now our corners are completely exposed.
Gee....guess there’s no reason to play since it’s obvious we can’t beat Tennessee.
Baloney. If this team at Kentucky brings its best Tennessee will be beaten.
I do NOT particularly care for our DC to keep saying “they’re gonna score”. Not unless that’s a psychological dig to the defense.
play the game
Baloney. If this team at Kentucky brings its best Tennessee will be beaten.
I do NOT particularly care for our DC to keep saying “they’re gonna score”. Not unless that’s a psychological dig to the defense.
play the game
Stoops said he practiced this week. The line against Miss St shifted sharply last Fri/Sat so I think it’s possible someone caught wind of something happening with CRod, hope that’s not the case here. BTW, appreciate your service, 22 year Navy vet myself.
A lot of Chicken Littles in here. Our offense relies on the run to set up the pass. The last two games we faced the top 2/3 rush defenses in the SEC. UT's rush defense gives up, on avg, almost more than both UGA and MSU combined and we ran for more yards than their season avg ON THE ROAD, in both games. UT avgs giving up 144 yds a game. If current performance holds true, then we rush for close to 200 yards. Do you really think we lose with 175+ yds rushing? If C-Rod is not injured, you are going to see a slobber knocker run game with more WRs open due to play action. If we don't turn it over we win. If we are -2 TO+, then we likely lose.
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Yup. On the Cover 3 podcast all four hosts picked UT, and they said it was the first time this season all four had picked the same team against the spread.
If we polled random college football fans on the street from somewhere outside of KY, the vast majority would be on UT.
I can understand the sentiment if they all watched last weeks game, but a team has to be judged on their entire body of work for the season, not just one game, good or bad, first or last. As a handicapper what I notice in general is that good quality teams tend to bounce back from subpar performances while poor quality teams tend to slide further into a funk.
I’m just saying they had winning records when we beat them and they will end the season with winning records IMO.
I’m only pointing out a neutral’s POV for this match-up.
As a handicapper myself, I like to fade the public.
Anyone that listened to White's media session definitely shouldn't feel confident. If I bet on sports, I'd put my bet in for ut right after that
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