If they are projected as late second rounders.
Another poster linked an article detailing how well the top 10 picks in the second round of the NBA draft have done financially of late. Good for them.
But it got me wondering...what about the last 10 picks? After all, there’s a very fine line sometimes between 40th and 53rd. Especially as NBA teams start their draft and stash schemes.
So I pulled the numbers for the bottom 10 picks in each of the past 10 drafts. Those picked 51-60. I looked at games played, and money made. Here are some highlights (or lowlights) of what I found (if there’s anything else you’d like to know, let me know):
48 out 100 have played in the NBA, at least 1 game. So right off the bat, your odds of getting in the league at all are about 50/50.
Only 9/48 who have played 1 or more games have played 100 or more games.
And I know what some of you are thinking (I think). Only the players who have been around a while would be likely to play a lot of games.
Sounds true enough. But in reality, it’s kind of a mixed bag.
Only one player drafted in 2008 has played over 100 games. That’s Darnell Jackson, who played 138 career games but has been out of the league since 2011.
2009 has 3 guys. 2010 has 1. 2011 has 3 again.
From 2012 through 2017 - 6 drafts - 28 players have gotten clock in the league. Of those 28, only 2 have gone over 100 games. Robert Sacre from 2012, with 189 games, and Joffrey Lauvergne from 2013 with 208.
Of course no one from the last draft could have possibly played 100 games, but drilling down further we see that no one from the last 4 classes has played more than 64 games. That was Semaj Christon, class of 2014.
What about money? We all know the success stories. Isaiah Thomas with $23 million in career earnings, or Patty Mills with $15 mil. But the overall picture isn’t that rosy.
Of the 48 players drafted from 51-60 the past 10 years, the median number of games played is 35. The median career earnings are close to $600 thousand.
So get drafted among the bottom ten of the draft, and you can flip a coin about making the league at all. If you make it, your expectation should be playing around half a season and making half a million or so.
I know things are supposed to be getting better, and maybe they are. But here are the facts:
21 players from the bottom of the past 5 drafts have played in the NBA. 1 guy (Lauvergne) has made $5 million. 3 have made over a million. The other 17 have made less than a million, with several much much less than a million.
I would say the jury is still out. But I would also say that someone not projected in the first round (or very close to it) should think long and hard about how good they’ve got in in college. Especially at a program like UK.
Edit: Only 9/48 player over 100 games. I had incorrectly said 10/48 originally. Also shifted median games played to 35, and career earnings to $600k.
Another poster linked an article detailing how well the top 10 picks in the second round of the NBA draft have done financially of late. Good for them.
But it got me wondering...what about the last 10 picks? After all, there’s a very fine line sometimes between 40th and 53rd. Especially as NBA teams start their draft and stash schemes.
So I pulled the numbers for the bottom 10 picks in each of the past 10 drafts. Those picked 51-60. I looked at games played, and money made. Here are some highlights (or lowlights) of what I found (if there’s anything else you’d like to know, let me know):
48 out 100 have played in the NBA, at least 1 game. So right off the bat, your odds of getting in the league at all are about 50/50.
Only 9/48 who have played 1 or more games have played 100 or more games.
And I know what some of you are thinking (I think). Only the players who have been around a while would be likely to play a lot of games.
Sounds true enough. But in reality, it’s kind of a mixed bag.
Only one player drafted in 2008 has played over 100 games. That’s Darnell Jackson, who played 138 career games but has been out of the league since 2011.
2009 has 3 guys. 2010 has 1. 2011 has 3 again.
From 2012 through 2017 - 6 drafts - 28 players have gotten clock in the league. Of those 28, only 2 have gone over 100 games. Robert Sacre from 2012, with 189 games, and Joffrey Lauvergne from 2013 with 208.
Of course no one from the last draft could have possibly played 100 games, but drilling down further we see that no one from the last 4 classes has played more than 64 games. That was Semaj Christon, class of 2014.
What about money? We all know the success stories. Isaiah Thomas with $23 million in career earnings, or Patty Mills with $15 mil. But the overall picture isn’t that rosy.
Of the 48 players drafted from 51-60 the past 10 years, the median number of games played is 35. The median career earnings are close to $600 thousand.
So get drafted among the bottom ten of the draft, and you can flip a coin about making the league at all. If you make it, your expectation should be playing around half a season and making half a million or so.
I know things are supposed to be getting better, and maybe they are. But here are the facts:
21 players from the bottom of the past 5 drafts have played in the NBA. 1 guy (Lauvergne) has made $5 million. 3 have made over a million. The other 17 have made less than a million, with several much much less than a million.
I would say the jury is still out. But I would also say that someone not projected in the first round (or very close to it) should think long and hard about how good they’ve got in in college. Especially at a program like UK.
Edit: Only 9/48 player over 100 games. I had incorrectly said 10/48 originally. Also shifted median games played to 35, and career earnings to $600k.
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