The long-term consequences of conference realignment... for a basketball school in a 'small' market.

[rabbitTown]

Excuse me if this has been stated elsewhere... I just haven't seen it. Please attach links to similar articles if they exist, I'd like to read their take.

Every article on conference expansion is about the immediate or near future. Essentially, what will happen to the remainder of the Pac 12, Big 12, ACC, and Notre Dame? Many prognosticators have realignment ending with two principal conferences... call them what you want, the SEC and the Big 10... but if true neither of them are what they once were... and that should be concerning for schools like us.

Let's assume the SEC ends up a few years down the road like this... Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. 22 teams. Ten of those schools have no (or limited) history with the SEC... they just came for the $$ and recruits. Another, Arkansas, has a greater history with Texas and A&M than it does with the SEC. Most of the additions (if not all) have a better 10-30 year football resume than UK (or they wouldn't have been asked in the first place).

So, what happens down the road when some combination of Alabama, Auburn, Texas, Oklahoma, A&M, Georgia, North Carolina, Clemson, LSU, Florida, Florida State, Tennessee, Miami, etc start looking around with who they are having to share revenue... and how they could maximize their take even more by leaving behind those programs that have disproportionately less value?
It could be argued that Missouri, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss State, South Carolina, Arkansas, and yes...UK... take more than they give. That those major football programs in major markets could make more on their own.

Is that the next logical step in realignment? We currently feel secure about our place, but not because we provide any value that many other teams in now broken-up conferences couldn't also provide. We feel good (for now) because we happen to be in the conference with the best football teams, and legacy still seems to mean something. What happens when the dust settles, and they start looking around to realize that they can make more if they don't have to share with us?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I could see Kentucky growing it's football program enough that, at the very least, we aren't a drag on whatever conference we are in. No, we may never be Alabama.. but it's not like Tuscaloosa is some huge market either.

An elite basketball program and an up and coming football program.. should be enough for any conference.

 

[Smashcat]

I could see Kentucky growing it's football program enough that, at the very least, we aren't a drag on whatever conference we are in. No, we may never be Alabama.. but it's not like Tuscaloosa is some huge market either.

An elite basketball program and an up and coming football program.. should be enough for any conference.

Ditto.

 

[gojvc]

My concern would be that eventually we’re getting outbid for elite basketball talent and the program begins to slip because of it.

 

[rabbitTown]

I could see Kentucky growing it's football program enough that, at the very least, we aren't a drag on whatever conference we are in. No, we may never be Alabama.. but it's not like Tuscaloosa is some huge market either.

An elite basketball program and an up and coming football program.. should be enough for any conference.

You say that like it's easy to do.
So I wonder, which is actually easier to create/maintain... a football program or a basketball program? 13 scholarship players.... or 85 scholarship players?
There is much less variability among the list of top football teams each year than there is in basketball.
Since 2015 the following 13 teams have made the 'final four' in football... Alabama 7, Clemson 6, Ohio State and Oklahoma 4, Notre Dame and Georgia 2, and Michigan, Cincinnati, LSU, Washington, Michigan St, Oregon, and Florida St 1.
Over the same time span 20 teams have made the Final Four in basketball... NC and Villanova 3, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan St, and KU 2, and 14 teams (including UK and Loyola-Chicago) with 1.

I don't see how adding Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and the rest to the conference helps us in recruiting at all.

 

[catben]

All of the schools you mentioned will need WINS to stay viable. EVERY league needs teams that provide wins.

No way we will see ANY league without teams that can provide the upper echelon with the wins needed to stay relevant.

 

[bucsrule8872]

The SEC isn’t cutting teams. They are adding teams. I don’t see the OP’s scenario playing out anytime soon. It looks like everyone is trying to scoop up as many teams as possible right now. I am not worried about the SEC booting a charter member or the big football schools breaking away. I don’t think that is the direction we are headed right now. Maybe in 50 years, then the trend might change.

Also, UK is a national brand because of basketball. That helps us, revenue wise, because of the merch UK moves. Kentucky is a small market, but there are UK fans everywhere, not just in Kentucky. And with streaming, we are less and less reliant on markets.

Now, it could happen that 50 years from now, UK is no longer a household name in basketball and we could be in trouble. But by then, I will be so old, I won’t care (if I am still around). LOL!

 

[chroix]

People are so impatient these days we are going to start cutting before we’ve even added.

 

[KY2LA]

The SEC wouldn’t be the SEC without us, we’re the granddaddy. Bear Bryant couldn’t handle the pressure in Lexington so he tucked tail and ran. We’ll always be Daddy to our Little Brothers in Tuscaloosa.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You say that like it's easy to do.
So I wonder, which is actually easier to create/maintain... a football program or a basketball program? 13 scholarship players.... or 85 scholarship players?
There is much less variability among the list of top football teams each year than there is in basketball.
Since 2015 the following 13 teams have made the 'final four' in football... Alabama 7, Clemson 6, Ohio State and Oklahoma 4, Notre Dame and Georgia 2, and Michigan, Cincinnati, LSU, Washington, Michigan St, Oregon, and Florida St 1.
Over the same time span 20 teams have made the Final Four in basketball... NC and Villanova 3, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan St, and KU 2, and 14 teams (including UK and Loyola-Chicago) with 1.

I don't see how adding Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and the rest to the conference helps us in recruiting at all.

What's easy to do? Kentucky IS growing it's football program and it's basketball program will always be a top5 draw.

I could be wrong, but I've never really thought other programs being added to the mix, really affects recruiting. What does it matter of Clemson and Texas are in the SEC? Players go where they feel comfortable, where they have a connection with a coach. The only time the conference matters is just for regional proximity. Obviously it's tougher for UK to land pacific northwest kids.. But still. I don't see adding SEC schools will have much of an affect on us.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

If you ask me.. most recruits probably have no idea who is in what conference when they pick a school. I bet someone like Cason or Livingston can only name half of the SEC programs. It's not like you ever hear a recruit who REALLY wants to be in a certain conference.

 

[JonathanW]

While the OP is right in some respects, I thing one thing that UK, Vandy, Missouri, Ark, USC, ect.. offer is quality opponents who won't often beat "the big boys". I know we are better, but when is the last time we beat Georgia or Bama? How many times have we beaten Florida? A Florida doesn't want to take their chances with a 8 game conference schedule vs UGA, Bama, Texas, Okl, Clemson, LSU, A&M, & FSU, and then 3 cupcakes.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I don’t think conference realignment is going to affect basketball very much anyway. Even if schools like KU get left out of the Big 10 or SEC, they are still going to compete in March Madness. Teams like Nova and Gonzaga don’t have a football program anyway and are still powerhouse basketball programs.

So, if UK gets kicked out of the SEC, they can join the Big 12, who would jump at the chance to add UK. That hurts football, but basketball will continue on. I don’t see the KU basketball program falling apart because they are stuck in the Big 12. And if the Big 12 collapses, KU will be just fine playing in the AAC or MWC or WAC. Wouldn’t matter to them in basketball. We would be in the same boat.

But for the sake of our football program, let’s hope the SEC doesn’t collapse anytime soon.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

My concern would be that eventually we’re getting outbid for elite basketball talent and the program begins to slip because of it.

There seems to be this concern already about football and fears that we will start to take a dip after the new heights Stoops has brought the program to the past 4 seasons especially.

I think with basketball the history/tradition factor and the recruiting caliber of the coach will matter and offset if we are cheaper than some other options NIL. We have that now with Cal but the next guy has to be a good to great recruiter as well and perhaps will be a better X/O coach.

 

[Rockford]

Is that the next logical step in realignment?

Just depends on the $$$$$

If you can predict that, you have got the next move.

Good luck and keep me advised!

 

[LineSkiCat14]

There seems to be this concern already about football and fears that we will start to take a dip after the new heights Stoops has brought the program to the past 4 seasons especially.

I think with basketball the history/tradition factor and the recruiting caliber of the coach will matter and offset if we are cheaper than some other options NIL. We have that now with Cal but the next guy has to be a good to great recruiter as well and perhaps will be a better X/O coach.

I think more than anything, Kentucky's location, as it pertains to football recruiting, is definitely a benefit. You're still in the SEC (conferences matter a little more in football than basketball), and you're getting kids from the south.. but you also have proximity to Pennsylvania and Ohio Valley areas. We seem to have done very well there, and there will always be 3 and 4-star talents in that area who want to play in the SEC, but maybe can't make it on Alabama.

Either way, I'm not too worried about it. College athletics is probably going to be extinct in 20 years for a multitude of reasons anyways lol..

 

[rabbitTown]

Either way, I'm not too worried about it. College athletics is probably going to be extinct in 20 years for a multitude of reasons anyways lol..

I'm afraid you're right...

 

[bucsrule8872]

I think more than anything, Kentucky's location, as it pertains to football recruiting, is definitely a benefit. You're still in the SEC (conferences matter a little more in football than basketball), and you're getting kids from the south.. but you also have proximity to Pennsylvania and Ohio Valley areas. We seem to have done very well there, and there will always be 3 and 4-star talents in that area who want to play in the SEC, but maybe can't make it on Alabama.

Either way, I'm not too worried about it. College athletics is probably going to be extinct in 20 years for a multitude of reasons anyways lol..

Some would say we are witnessing the end of college athletics right now. It is no longer amateur sports. Heck, it really hasn’t been in a long, long time. Now with NIL, these guys get paid and it’s legal. The NCAA is a professional league now.

And it’s only going to get worse with the mega conferences. Once that sorts itself out, the big boys will be doing whatever they want. In a decade or two they will be handing out multimillion dollar contracts straight up without the NIL façade.

It is going to be interesting to see how things play out, but I think you hit the nail on the head when you say that college sports as we know it is going the way of the dinosaurs. Heck, the proverbial meteor (NIL) has already hit the earth.

 

[chiefthief]

If I'm not mistaken UK is 15th in the nation in revenue due to sports. And while a lot of that is due to SEC money. UK is 7th or 8th in the SEC. Which would mean even as it is there would be half the league cut if you're just going based on that. And Kentucky is a small state without a Pro team. Not sharing the market.

 

[bkingUK]

Some would say we are witnessing the end of college athletics right now. It is no longer amateur sports. Heck, it really hasn’t been in a long, long time. Now with NIL, these guys get paid and it’s legal. The NCAA is a professional league now.

And it’s only going to get worse with the mega conferences. Once that sorts itself out, the big boys will be doing whatever they want. In a decade or two they will be handing out multimillion dollar contracts straight up without the NIL façade.

It is going to be interesting to see how things play out, but I think you hit the nail on the head when you say that college sports as we know it is going the way of the dinosaurs. Heck, the proverbial meteor (NIL) has already hit the earth.

It's not the end of college sports. There is too much money in college sports. It's changing, sure, but not the end of college sports. Heck, college sports started out as rec teams traveling to local schools to compete. That will continue as long as colleges exist.

 

[bucsrule8872]

It's not the end of college sports. There is too much money in college sports. It's changing, sure, but not the end of college sports. Heck, college sports started out as rec teams traveling to local schools to compete. That will continue as long as colleges exist.

Thus the phrase “as we know it.”

 

[Gromcat]

Not going to happen. Our football program would be highly sought after today. It’s worth a lot of money and has a winning product. The only reason you’re thinking it’s below par is because of past history and the programs like Alabama that surround us. In reality we are around / just below an Oregon or VT type of program today, we just can’t get BCS bowls because of conference difficulty. If we were in the ACC the SEC would want us. If we were in the BIG12 the SEC would want us. I just have no doubt in that.

Other than that, we’re a charter member SEC program. There’s no chance we would ever be asked to leave. We bring our own revenue and we aren’t a slouch university. The reason programs like Kansas and Duke are expendable is because their football is extremely poor. Well below the level of a program like UK. Hell Well below programs outside of D1 too. Duke is probably the worst football program in all of the power 5, Kansas right around there too.

You don’t have to worry. Kentucky isn’t going anywhere. It’s not even a possibility.

 

[Gromcat]

Some would say we are witnessing the end of college athletics right now. It is no longer amateur sports. Heck, it really hasn’t been in a long, long time. Now with NIL, these guys get paid and it’s legal. The NCAA is a professional league now.

And it’s only going to get worse with the mega conferences. Once that sorts itself out, the big boys will be doing whatever they want. In a decade or two they will be handing out multimillion dollar contracts straight up without the NIL façade.

It is going to be interesting to see how things play out, but I think you hit the nail on the head when you say that college sports as we know it is going the way of the dinosaurs. Heck, the proverbial meteor (NIL) has already hit the earth.

This is why I would laugh at these short sighted and gullible people that would say “just let them make money on their likeness”. I mean how stupid does someone have to be to believe this would ever end at “likeness” and “autograph signing for profit”. It’s really amazing anyone fell for that. It just shows how little people understand the world around them, and the scary part is these are voters. Scares the hell out of me for my kids.

This has always been a ploy to professionalize college athletics and turn it into a cesspool. People ran with nonsense stories of how much the NCAA was making on the “backs of athletes”. Total nonsense. Almost all of that revenue went back to the universities to fund things like research.

People woke up too late, they fell for a sort of malicious grievance, and now it’s all going to hell. Reminds me of a lot of things happening in America today, which was the point in destroying the educational system in the first place.

I know, har har!! But it’s true.

 

[chroix]

Not going to happen. Our football program would be highly sought after today. It’s worth a lot of money and has a winning product. The only reason you’re thinking it’s below par is because of past history and the programs like Alabama that surround us. In reality we are around / just below an Oregon or VT type of program today, we just can’t get BCS bowls because of conference difficulty. If we were in the ACC the SEC would want us. If we were in the BIG12 the SEC would want us. I just have no doubt in that.

Other than that, we’re a charter member SEC program. There’s no chance we would ever be asked to leave. We bring our own revenue and we aren’t a slouch university. The reason programs like Kansas and Duke are expendable is because their football is extremely poor. Well below the level of a program like UK. Hell Well below programs outside of D1 too. Duke is probably the worst football program in all of the power 5, Kansas right around there too.

You don’t have to worry. Kentucky isn’t going anywhere. It’s not even a possibility.

Exactly this. UK Football is legit decent. People are stuck in the past.

 

[Woodrow_Call_1998]

Not going to happen. Our football program would be highly sought after today. It’s worth a lot of money and has a winning product. The only reason you’re thinking it’s below par is because of past history and the programs like Alabama that surround us. In reality we are around / just below an Oregon or VT type of program today, we just can’t get BCS bowls because of conference difficulty. If we were in the ACC the SEC would want us. If we were in the BIG12 the SEC would want us. I just have no doubt in that.

Other than that, we’re a charter member SEC program. There’s no chance we would ever be asked to leave. We bring our own revenue and we aren’t a slouch university. The reason programs like Kansas and Duke are expendable is because their football is extremely poor. Well below the level of a program like UK. Hell Well below programs outside of D1 too. Duke is probably the worst football program in all of the power 5, Kansas right around there too.

You don’t have to worry. Kentucky isn’t going anywhere. It’s not even a possibility.

If the power 2 conference alignment does happen like many anticipate, theirs going to be several athletic programs that will wish they had invested more into football. I read that their is a rumor going around that the governor of Washington is trying to make Washington state and Washington a package deal because they are worried that state is going to get left out.

 

[Blueworld_3.0]

Kentucky's national brand in basketball and up and coming status in football will keep the program tied to the SEC for quite a while. UK brings eyeballs in basketball and solid interest in football. That contributes to the SEC's footprint and allows the conference to continue to sign mega deals for broadcast rights with ESPN. If/when UK is bad in BOTH sports for a prolonged period of time...is when you need to start worrying.

 

[chroix]

Missouri bringing jack squat to the table. I’d think they’re first to get cut out of anybody.

 

[rabbitTown]

1) Not going to happen. Our football program would be highly sought after today. It’s worth a lot of money and has a winning product. The only reason you’re thinking it’s below par is because of past history and the programs like Alabama that surround us. In reality we are around / just below an Oregon or VT type of program today, we just can’t get BCS bowls because of conference difficulty. If we were in the ACC the SEC would want us. If we were in the BIG12 the SEC would want us. I just have no doubt in that.

2) Other than that, we’re a charter member SEC program. There’s no chance we would ever be asked to leave. We bring our own revenue and we aren’t a slouch university. The reason programs like Kansas and Duke are expendable is because their football is extremely poor. Well below the level of a program like UK. Hell Well below programs outside of D1 too. Duke is probably the worst football program in all of the power 5, Kansas right around there too.

3) You don’t have to worry. Kentucky isn’t going anywhere. It’s not even a possibility.

1) based on today's metric (i.e. even if, as you stated we are equivalent to an Oregon [which I don't think so, largely due to Nike... who has too much influence on us])... I don't think we get picked up if we weren't already in the SEC.

2) My point/concern was... when the membership of the new SEC has more new members than charter members... they will start looking around at what programs are preventing them from maximizing their profits. As others have pointed out some nuances that certainly alleviate my concern... I still don't think the amount of time a school has been in the SEC will matter soon.

2b) Traditionally, our football program is not much better than KUs (to use one of your examples). To be clear, it is better (now and always) even though they have more wins than we do (with many more losses). We are a .500 team, all-time. Despite our recent successes or KUs past success (they did win a BCS game in 2007ish; they even beat Texas and almost OU last year) neither moves the needle in conference realignment where football is the driver.

2c) While your current level of football prowess should be factored in... the potential viewership is likely more important.

2d) A conference with just Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, A&M, Auburn, and LSU could command more money per school than they could with the rest of the remaining SEC. They could get the same TV contract... and split it among 9 schools instead of 16. They could play each other (8 games) and play 4 more at large. The talk now is about big super conferences... but this scenario makes the most financial sense. We'll see.

3) I hope you're right... however, I think big-time college athletics (elite DI specifically) will soon be dead. With the money at stake now (and growing), there will soon be no reason for universities to be involved. We've seen the tip of the iceberg with various developmental leagues and kids going overseas... coupled with the decreased value of a college education compared to vocational training.