The Dropoff in Talent is a Bigger Factor Than Most Want to Admit

[aceman509]

Most fans realize that we don't have the NBA talent that we used to, but when looking at the numbers it is even more dramatic than I thought. By the way, this isn't me making excuses for Cal, it is 100% on Cal to build the roster and he's done a poor job doing that the last few years.

Here are the number of NBA players on each team since Cal got here:

09-10: 8
10-11: 6
11-12: 7
12-13: 5
13-14: 7
14-15: 9
15-16: 7
16-17: 7
17-18: 7
18-19: 6
19-20: 5
20-21: 3*
21-22: 2*
22-23: 1*

​

*21 team would have had 4 if you count Terrance Clarke who was a lock to get drafted. I am counting Bryce Hopkins as having made the NBA, but he is not a lock. The 21-22 and 22-23 teams could have more if Oscar, Toppin, Livingston, or Ugo make the NBA. Oscar and Toppin are not listed in the top 100 prospects, Livingston is listed outside the top 60.


Our average number of NBA players per team through 14-15 was 7. Average number through 19-20 was 6.72. Our average number since 20-21 is 2. That is a massive drop.

 

[ganner918]

Oh, it's been pretty obvious. Cal has talent on these teams, but he doesn't have the kind of talent - extreme athleticism, NBA raw ability talent. I've criticized him endlessly these last two years for just not knowing what to do with the talent he has. He knows how to play one way, and has done an absolutely terrible job of coaching different kinds of players than he had before. There are a lot of coaches who could have done great things with the talent we had on these last two squads.

 

[Crankdatmustard]

Have been saying it all year. We have gone from the elite of elite to Rhode Island, Illinois State type players shouldering how successful we are. Other schools might be able to do that, but lets face it, Cal has to have ELITE, ELITE players to win big.

 

[MdWIldcat55]

Kentucky 2010-2015 was a moment in time that people might as well accept will never be replicated -- by ANYBODY, Kentucky included.

Calipari was a genius to capture the lightning of One-and_Done before anyone else, proved a terrific manager of young egos and talent, and dominated an era between the time when a player like John Wall HAD to go to college and when the world caught up, then changed.

First, Nike empowered Duke to play on a level playing field, and cheated to steer players toward K. Then Self, Pitino and others became full-blown cheaters in a desperate and shameful bid to catch Cal. Finally, the transfer portal and NIL became factors.

One program is not going to have six or seven NBA talents on the roster again. Transfer, plug into the NIL dollar flood and be the big fish somewhere else, instead of Terrance Jones to Anthony Davis and MKG.

I'm glad Kentucky had that era. I wish it had yielded three championships instead of one. But the NCAA Tournament is a hard and cruel event.

Next year will be a modified return to 2010-2015. That happened in part because K left, Roy left and Self was outed as a complete fraud.

Past results suggest Kentucky has a real chance to ride that roster to the Final Four -- unless everything collapses under NIL, the lure of the transfer portal and clashing egos.

 

[know1]

That's true, but coaching is still the biggest issue by far.

 

[Smashcat]

Gotta have talent. Even Bob Baffert can't win the Derby without studs in his stable.

 

[EliteBlue]

That's true, but coaching is still the biggest issue by far.

This. That era isn’t coming back. It was perfect timing w Cal being in front of the 1nD movement.

Now Cal is having to team build and win with the same talent levels as everyone else and it comes down to coaching and player utilization. Strategy is Cals weak spot. Recruiting is his strength.

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

Not only nba talent is way down but simply having tough players is way down as well.

I wouldn’t pick us to win any game that goes down to the last possession and us needing a basket. We simply didn’t have a DAWG to go get it.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

That's true, but coaching is still the biggest issue by far.

This. He had collegiate talent he just has no idea how to use them. Any team with Oscar should've had at least one zone in it's arsenal.

Then it's compounded because other schools like bama and Arkansas are amassing the NBA elite level guys we used to get.

 

[jwphelps]

Most fans realize that we don't have the NBA talent that we used to, but when looking at the numbers it is even more dramatic than I thought. By the way, this isn't me making excuses for Cal, it is 100% on Cal to build the roster and he's done a poor job doing that the last few years.

Here are the number of NBA players on each team since Cal got here:

09-10: 8
10-11: 6
11-12: 7
12-13: 5
13-14: 7
14-15: 9
15-16: 7
16-17: 7
17-18: 7
18-19: 6
19-20: 5
20-21: 3*
21-22: 2*
22-23: 1*

​

*21 team would have had 4 if you count Terrance Clarke who was a lock to get drafted. I am counting Bryce Hopkins as having made the NBA, but he is not a lock. The 21-22 and 22-23 teams could have more if Oscar, Toppin, Livingston, or Ugo make the NBA. Oscar and Toppin are not listed in the top 100 prospects, Livingston is listed outside the top 60.


Our average number of NBA players per team through 14-15 was 7. Average number through 19-20 was 6.72. Our average number since 20-21 is 2. That is a massive drop.

True, but as you said this is on Cal he recruits the players, but I will say this, this team had enough talent to be an elite 8 team for this season, there were no super teams out there. But because Cal refuses to change his game style to suit the talent he has, is the reason he keeps failing, basically if Cal can't recruit 4 to 5 first round draft picks the man can't win cause he can't out coach the opposing team.

 

[TheBlueMist]

The decrease in star power has only exposed the poor coaching decisions more. For comparison, why don't you put the number of future NBA players for each of Tubby's teams and their records, or Rick's, or Hall's? Those coaches did not need a team full of pros to win games. The 1996 team may be the only team that resembled Calipari's average from 2014-2020.

 

[AGEE11]

This is why next year could get us back.

He hasn't had a loaded class like that in a long time.

You got 4 freshmen who all should be NBA players. Maybe Ugonna too

 

[katwest]

We had a national player of the year and two McDonalds All Americans and an all SEC guard and another senior starting this year. We still managed to lose 12 games, even though we had more talent than most of the teams we played. Coaching is the biggest issue when Georgia, South Carolina and Vandy (twice) beat you. Not to mention the other games we lost with first year coaches and lesser talent.

 

[Big Cat fan]

We need skilled players with handles.

 

[GoToTexas]

So what you are saying is we need a coach who adjusts and puts these “lesser players” in the best position to succeed now more than ever?

Oh

 

[YardCat]

Gotta have talent. Even Bob Baffert can't win the Derby without studs in his stable.

Doesn’t matter who the jockey is either, a plow horse isn’t beating a thoroughbred in a race. Maybe pulling a plow, about like our offense.

 

[qwesley]

Getting highly rated guys that only want to play one year is not showing to be a good strategy when you look at the F4 participants since 2015. He needs to be very selective on those (the scouting has been bad lately). Experienced talent is what is winning now...and have to be tough, especially at guard where we have been mediocre the past 3 years.

I do disagree with those saying getting mid-major guys out of the portal does not work. If you recruit a couple of high end talents and complement them with guys you get in the portal or retain using NIL that is workable. You can win big with guys like Reeves.

Lastly, the dropoff also started about the time he said he "did not want to take a player's heart". If you are going to be a consistent contender you have to be constantly looking at upgrading the roster. Look at what Oats has done, he brought in several guys this year added to an already solid roster and a couple of the holdover starters have at times come off the bench. Cal absolutely should have added another tough veteran perimeter player (or two) to compete even if it meant Wheeler leaving. He seems to be as myopic about the talent here as some of the superfans.

 

[JST390-2]

Agree

 

[sam_o]

the drop off in talent has only highlighted the coaching deficiencies that were always there. the drop off in talent is also cals fault. the issue is coaching

 

[JwUKFan11]

"I'm here because I can recruit the best of the best"

 

[bookerfan66]

Look at the rosters of the remaining teams in the tourney.Are they full of all stars?No but they had coaches who made adjustments to fit their roster.

 

[shaudyshaud]

And we still are losing to teams with less talent.

There has been more than enough talent on the roster for us to not have the type of seasons that we have been having

 

[wkycatfan]

Experienced talent wins championships. Not sure Cal would have won his NC without Darius Miller.

 

[Disappointed Cat]

Most fans realize that we don't have the NBA talent that we used to, but when looking at the numbers it is even more dramatic than I thought. By the way, this isn't me making excuses for Cal, it is 100% on Cal to build the roster and he's done a poor job doing that the last few years.

Here are the number of NBA players on each team since Cal got here:

09-10: 8
10-11: 6
11-12: 7
12-13: 5
13-14: 7
14-15: 9
15-16: 7
16-17: 7
17-18: 7
18-19: 6
19-20: 5
20-21: 3*
21-22: 2*
22-23: 1*

​

*21 team would have had 4 if you count Terrance Clarke who was a lock to get drafted. I am counting Bryce Hopkins as having made the NBA, but he is not a lock. The 21-22 and 22-23 teams could have more if Oscar, Toppin, Livingston, or Ugo make the NBA. Oscar and Toppin are not listed in the top 100 prospects, Livingston is listed outside the top 60.


Our average number of NBA players per team through 14-15 was 7. Average number through 19-20 was 6.72. Our average number since 20-21 is 2. That is a massive drop.

And who do you think is solely responsible for recruiting and developing talent at UK? Cal always has a top rated recruiting class....so the problem is coaching. Did you notice how so many of the other coaches with mainly 3 star players have owned Cal the past few years?

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Cal has failed UK on recruiting. Not by the numbers because the last 3 years were rated by almost everyone as top recruiting classes.

You have to recruit past the numbers. You take a 4 star that fits over a 5 star that doesn't. Where is the player evaluation? Cal is a defense first coach. So why recruit guys that can't play defense? Cal values possessions. Being not turning it over or rebounding. So why recruit turnover prone guards and non rebounders? I know we got Oscar. But Oscar has been the only true rebounder on the team for the last 2 seasons. And the '21 season didn't have any rebounders on it.

And rebounding is one skill that carries. If a guy can rebound in high school he can rebound in college and he can rebound in the pros.

And shot blocking. Cal really loves the blocked shot. Why not recruit shot blockers. I don't mean 200 lb guys that can jump. I mean shot blockers. That's a skill you can see early. Everyone knew AD, WCS and NN were going to block shots if they did nothing else.

Cal is just not recruiting to how he wants to play. When a put a team of all NBA players together the talent can just overcome the flaws. The margin for error is much greater. When you have a team of transfers that don't fit then margin is just too small.

So you either get all stars at every position or you recruit to fit. He's not done either for 3 consecutive seasons.

 

[wkucat88]

That's all fine and good, but take the National Champs since 2012, and tell me how many NBA players were on those teams. I bet its less than what we had. And yet, those coaches got it done.

 

[Bluegrass79]

This class John CCC. has coming in .....it's got to be in top three all time Calipari class before season.

I only think will have a chance if John Calipari can prove to me he has shot blocking on his team.
His defense and his offense does not work if he doesn't have the right kind a shot blocking. One feeds the other

His man-to-man defense and his offensive execution is garbage if he doesn't have a good Center. Period!

 

[yes_takeaside]

Cats should be in Sweet 16 with a great chance at the FF. But it’s KState again instead.

Cal has plateaued.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

That's all fine and good, but take the National Champs since 2012, and tell me how many NBA players were on those teams. I bet its less than what we had. And yet, those coaches got it done.

I would say that's not the case if someone wants to look it up. Even the UNVA team had 3 NBA players on it and 2 other that play professionally overseas.

 

[K_TIME]

So how many NBA dudes did Kansas St have?
How many NBA dudes did St Peters have? (how many NBA dudes did Kansas have on champ team last year)
Are you telling me the 9-16 team was mostly due to NBA dudes....9-16.....again 9-16.
How many dudes did Auburn have on the 2019 team that bounced UK in elite 8? (Okeke is it...and he didn't play that game)
How many dudes did Kansas St have on the 2018 team?

It is silly to argue UK doesn't have enough talent to get out of first weekend.....Cal is severly underperforming.

 

[satyr9]

Have been saying it all year. We have gone from the elite of elite to Rhode Island, Illinois State type players shouldering how successful we are. Other schools might be able to do that, but lets face it, Cal has to have ELITE, ELITE players to win big.

Cal has won big with a single dominant guy like Camby/Rose/Evans, surrounded by solid supporting players. He doesn't necessarily need half of his roster to be future NBA players, to have success. But he hasn't been able to land that one dude for awhile now. And probably the quality of the supporting players has declined as well. His ability to adapt style of play to the roster he actually has, has been disappointing. The way college basketball has changed in recent years, and the greater options that players have, there may not be many of those dominant guys available.

 

[ftp000]

The talent we are missing is solid rim protection, and consistent shooters. Seems like the last 2 years Cal thought he had the shooters, but they turned into bricks instead of buckets. He traded rim protection for rebounds, which got us pick and rolled.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

This post is spot on. “Talent” has been the problem. This is not a Cal v players who the problem has been because Cal is responsible for the players on the team so this is his fault. Instead of looking at NBA players and their future beyond UK. I think it’s more telling to look at them from a recruiting standpoint.

I will use 247 composite for these rankings and focus on just 1st year results. For a revolving door program that’s really all that matters.

2022- only 2 real recruits. 2 developmental effective red shirt kids. 1 hit and 1 bust of the 2 real recruits.
2021- Sharpe, TyTy, Collins, Hopkins. 3 busts and 1 hit(not a HUGE hit though).
2020- Boston, Clarke, Askew, Jackson, Ware, Fletcher. 5 busts and 1 soft hit.
2019- Maxey, Whitney, Brooks, Juzang, Allen. I’ll throw out Allen as in State development but he was a bust too in honesty. 3 busts and 1 hit in this class elsewhere.
2018- Montgomery, Hagans, Keldon, Quickley, Herro. I’ll say 2 hits, 1 bust in EJ, and 2 neutral in Hagans/Quick


I’ll stop it there, going further back the results obviously keep trending in a positive direction.


In 5 years we have 7 top 20 recruits that committed to us(counting Sharpe) that did not have a positive impact in their first year. For a program reliant on freshmen that’s a recipe for disaster.


I would argue the SINGLE most detrimental thing for a program currently is taking a high profile freshman that scares off transfers, yet underwhelms. That’s why the Livingston dilemma is so interesting. In my opinion if he comes back, the top PF transfers won’t want to come here. But it’s very easy for me to see a situation where Chris is not good at the 4 next year, costing the team immensely.

 

[gossie21]

There are two things at play here. A decline in Cal's coaching is the most pressing issue. Even with reduced numbers of NBA talent, we should still be able to beat South Carolina, Vandy, Missouri, Kansas St, etc. But we keep losing to teams with less talent for a variety of reasons, starting with bizarre lineup choices, little situational awareness, no game-planning for the opponent, refusal to adjust offense or defense schemes, and the list can go on.

As for the roster itsself. I don't think its enough just to look at the raw numbers of NBA talent. The quality has dropped off significantly as well.

From 2010 - 2015, we had: 13 lottery picks which included 10 top-10 picks and 6 top-5 picks (3 #1 overall)

From 2016 - 2019 we had: 8 lottery picks which included 3 top-10 picks and only 1 top-5 picks

From 2020 - 2023 we had: Zero lottery picks, although we likely get one this year with Cason. Also, you could include Shaeden Sharpe if you are so inclined.

 

[UKNothinButNet]

"I'm here because I can recruit the best of the best"

Notice he wasn't bragging about his coaching ability! He can only win with an overwhelming raw talent advantage. His subpar coaching ability is being exposed by his inability to create a successful team with lesser talent. IMO he hates coaching, and has no interest in developing players long term.

 

[cats#1again]

Most fans realize that we don't have the NBA talent that we used to, but when looking at the numbers it is even more dramatic than I thought. By the way, this isn't me making excuses for Cal, it is 100% on Cal to build the roster and he's done a poor job doing that the last few years.

Here are the number of NBA players on each team since Cal got here:

09-10: 8
10-11: 6
11-12: 7
12-13: 5
13-14: 7
14-15: 9
15-16: 7
16-17: 7
17-18: 7
18-19: 6
19-20: 5
20-21: 3*
21-22: 2*
22-23: 1*

​

*21 team would have had 4 if you count Terrance Clarke who was a lock to get drafted. I am counting Bryce Hopkins as having made the NBA, but he is not a lock. The 21-22 and 22-23 teams could have more if Oscar, Toppin, Livingston, or Ugo make the NBA. Oscar and Toppin are not listed in the top 100 prospects, Livingston is listed outside the top 60.


Our average number of NBA players per team through 14-15 was 7. Average number through 19-20 was 6.72. Our average number since 20-21 is 2. That is a massive drop.

You don't have to have NBA players to have talent

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Completely agree w/ the post above that 2010-2015 will almost certainly never happen again. It certainly spoiled us, and set unreasonable expectations that would never be maintained ... especially with the portal and NIL thrown into the mix ... BUT ... the last few seasons have been completely, undeniably unacceptable by any standards, be those UK's or a program like UCLA, Arizona, Texas or ... Xavier.

While a drop-off is expected and reasonable ... the severity of the drop-off is what we are all feeling together.

 

[Kyhoward]

Princeton is i

Gotta have talent. Even Bob Baffert can't win the Derby without studs in his stab

Princeton, San Diego State, Creighton, and FAU are in the Sweet 16. These teams don’t have UK’s talent! They do have experienced players that have played together for 3-4 years!
We don’t have this and have not had this for most of CCC’s tenure.

 

[UKNothinButNet]

So how many NBA dudes did Kansas St have?
How many NBA dudes did St Peters have? (how many NBA dudes did Kansas have on champ team last year)
Are you telling me the 9-16 team was mostly due to NBA dudes....9-16.....again 9-16.
How many dudes did Auburn have on the 2019 team that bounced UK in elite 8? (Okeke is it...and he didn't play that game)
How many dudes did Kansas St have on the 2018 team?

It is silly to argue UK doesn't have enough talent to get out of first weekend.....Cal is severly underperforming.

^^^ THIS.

 

[CrimsonCats]

It’s true that our past few teams haven’t been as loaded with NBA prospects as we got accustomed to earlier in Cal’s tenure, but the fact that our results have fallen off that dramatically is still an indictment of his coaching ability. Kansas won the championship last year with only 2 players who got drafted (and maybe a 3rd this year with Wilson). Baylor won 2 years ago with only 2 future NBA players. If Cal can’t win without an entire lineup of first round picks, then his system obviously isn’t very good.