The China Thread. (Warning: Political Discussion).

[The-Hack]

I know this will lead to some political stuff, so I added the warning the Mods put on the Ukrainian thread.

China is fascinating and has to qualify as the most bizarre society in the history of human kind.

Check out these short films about them.

Trillions of Chinese money has been dumped into “ghost cities,” as the folks there have little other investment opportunities. There are dozens of Chinese cities 80 percent built, but unoccupied.



The kicker: building ghost cities might be a damn good idea if you lived in a country that is guaranteed to double it’s population in the next 80 years, but China is going to essentially “disappear” in that time frame, with a massive drop in population beginning in 2050, lowering their population to about 650,000,000 people, by 2090-2100, about half of the folks they now claim to have.



And this last film is more optimistic than most!

So, what happens when you have trillions invested to house 1.4 billion people, but only half that many to fill them?

A mighty crash is coming, sooner or later, and it will likely effect the whole world.

 

[Glenn's take]

Try the pot stickers. They're breath taking.

 

[Ron Mehico]

Why is the population decreasing so much? Is it that whole one child policy they had?

 

[entropy13]

Why is the population decreasing so much? Is it that whole one child policy they had?

Exactly. They eliminated it, but way too late to help themselves. And now, extremely low fertility rates have been normalized at the 1.1-1.3 kids per woman level, which is far below the replacement level (which is a bit above 2kids/woman).

This is compounded by two other problems: (1) basically no net immigration to help boost the population (in fact, many of the best and brightest leave for other countries), and (2) an extreme gender imbalance problem where the male-to-female ratios is 1.2 to 1.3 for some age brackets and regions. The latter has huge social implications for societal well-being, crime, etc.

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar..._shrinking_with_huge_consequences_836069.html

The above article builds on a lot of what Señor Hack was saying above.

 

[JumperJack]

You certainly have to admire their ownership of us.

 

[The-Hack]

Why is the population decreasing so much? Is it that whole one child policy they had?

As entropy13 answered, basically, the one child policy started the problem.

But one article/film I saw recently was that many are protesting the state by telling threatening officials “I am the last generation.” It seems the Party loves to harass folk with threats to their children’s educational and job opportunities, and the folks have come up with a novel defense: have no children to be threatened!!

If you (or anyone) is like 20 years old, today, they will see something unknown to mankind: a massive population decrease in the leading population country in the world.

 

[Ron Mehico]

Exactly. They eliminated it, but way too late to help themselves. And now, extremely low fertility rates have been normalized at the 1.1-1.3 kids per woman level, which is far below the replacement level (which is a bit above 2kids/woman).

This is compounded by two other problems: (1) basically no net immigration to help boost the population (in fact, many of the best and brightest leave for other countries), and (2) an extreme gender imbalance problem where the male-to-female ratios is 1.2 to 1.3 for some age brackets and regions. The latter has huge social implications for societal well-being, crime, etc.

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar..._shrinking_with_huge_consequences_836069.html

The above article builds on a lot of what Señor Hack was saying above.

Hell of a lot of assumptions in that article, namely that fertility rate will be 1.1 through 2060, even though it was 1.15 during COVID, which doesn’t really make any sense. The US is 1.6. And China passed the 3 child policy with incentives in 2016 and COVID really halted that before it could gain momentum. COVID really wrecked China so I think it’s a little too early to predict population trends. I would think in 5 years you’d have a better idea of trajectory.

 

[WildcatfaninOhio]

 

[bertfan31]

Try the pot stickers. They're breath taking.

Tasty take, Glennn.

 

[Cat_outta_Hell]

 

[the nail at the foul line]

https://www.101soundboards.com/sounds/18996-chinese

 

[BMoore2]

I know this will lead to some political stuff, so I added the warning the Mods put on the Ukrainian thread.

China is fascinating and has to qualify as the most bizarre society in the history of human kind.

Check out these short films about them.

Trillions of Chinese money has been dumped into “ghost cities,” as the folks there have little other investment opportunities. There are dozens of Chinese cities 80 percent built, but unoccupied.

View embedded media

The kicker: building ghost cities might be a damn good idea if you lived in a country that is guaranteed to double it’s population in the next 80 years, but China is going to essentially “disappear” in that time frame, with a massive drop in population beginning in 2050, lowering their population to about 650,000,000 people, by 2090-2100, about half of the folks they now claim to have.

View embedded media

And this last film is more optimistic than most!

So, what happens when you have trillions invested to house 1.4 million people, but only half that many to fill them?

A mighty crash is coming, sooner or later, and it will likely effect the whole world.

Wong’s eyes were bigger than his stomach.

 

[Wildcatsworld]

I volunteer to go and spread my seed to save them.

Can I get an NBA sponsorship?

 

[Rebelfreedomeagle]

If you’re interested in China I recommend the documentary Ascension. There’s no commentary or explanation, just views of different lifestyles in modern China.

 

[entropy13]

Hell of a lot of assumptions in that article, namely that fertility rate will be 1.1 through 2060, even though it was 1.15 during COVID, which doesn’t really make any sense. The US is 1.6. And China passed the 3 child policy with incentives in 2016 and COVID really halted that before it could gain momentum. COVID really wrecked China so I think it’s a little too early to predict population trends. I would think in 5 years you’d have a better idea of trajectory.

Once a country enters a demographic decline, it's shockingly hard to reverse without mass immigration, and that's not in China's wheelhouse.

Massively overbuilt non-productive assets, demographic decline, and a highly authoritarian political system and security apparatus are not a happy combination. The thing is, if the CCP had been a bit more flexible in their decision-making, much of the above was avoidable.

 

[The-Hack]

The thing is, if the CCP had been a bit more flexible in their decision-making, much of the above was avoidable.

There are other systemic problems relating to those already mentioned.

Well over 70 percent of their military are the only child in their family. My Dad was pulled out of basic training in 1944, after the (5) Sullivan brothers died in one ship sinking in the Pacific. You might remember mention of the Sullivans in Saving Private Ryan.

And “only children” have created a problem the Chinese call “the little emperor syndrome,” and I’ll let you guess what that means.

 

[WayneDougan]

I've been working with a lot of people in China recently. Smart mofo's. That helps.

 

[hmt5000]

the ghost cities serve as an investment for chinese citizens. They can't afford a bigger apt or a house, and those are only 70 year leases as no private property, so they invest in new construction. The Chinese gov backs it all and their people are guaranteed a profit... for as long as that shell game can stay afloat.

 

[Hank Camacho]

They really handled COVID well, imo.

- MurdererOfCrows

 

[The-Hack]

Multiple Pacific Island nations have just rejected a huge deal with China, involving investments and military cooperation.

I love India’s coverage of China and this story . . . “We bring you a story we are very happy to report . . . .”

 

[The-Hack]

The Chinese gov backs it all and their people are guaranteed a profit... for as long as that shell game can stay afloat.

The video indicates that the construction of these ghost cities amounts to 30 percent of Chinese GDP. This has to be the worst allocation of resources in mans kinds’ history . . . building tens of millions of housing units in a country facing an inevitable population collapse, and with no immigration to speak of, guarantees the investment is ultimately a complete waste.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Why is the population decreasing so much? Is it that whole one child policy they had?

I think they have backed off that policy.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

There are other systemic problems relating to those already mentioned.

Well over 70 percent of their military are the only child in their family. My Dad was pulled out of basic training in 1944, after the (5) Sullivan brothers died in one ship sinking in the Pacific. You might remember mention of the Sullivans in Saving Private Ryan.

And “only children” have created a problem the Chinese call “the little emperor syndrome,” and I’ll let you guess what that means.

A WWII vet who was a friend of mine had a hobby of taking saplings from famous properties (Monticello, Washington’s home, etc.) and planting them on public property. I think he went to Waterloo, Iowa to plant five trees at a public elementary school to memorialize their sacrifice.

If the rise of Christianity in China creates Christian families with more kids, in a few generations, the percentage of faithful people in the country could grow by more than evangelism.

 

[The-Hack]

COVID really wrecked China so I think it’s a little too early to predict population trends. I would think in 5 years you’d have a better idea of trajectory.

Hmmm.

Being told to stay at home has usually increased birth rates, if there is any truth to the reports of baby booms following power outages, blizzards, etc.

And even if the birth rate sees an incline, the children born in 2025 will not replace ones not born in 2005, 2010, 1015, 2020, etc.

If they pull off a baby boom, then they’ll have a society unlike any other in human history: retirees and grade schoolers with little in the middle.

 

[BGCATFAN2012]

Hmmm.

Being told to stay at home has usually increased birth rates, if there is any truth to the reports of baby booms following power outages, blizzards, etc.

And even if the birth rate sees an incline, the children born in 2025 will not replace ones not born in 2005, 2010, 1015, 2020, etc.

If they pull off a baby boom, then they’ll have a society unlike any other in human history: retirees and grade schoolers with little in the middle.

Exactly no transition group as adults to take the jobs need to run a business and society. The US will not have that problem as we will have plenty of citizens to run a society and business. China cut thier own head off and it seems the government is thinking bout doing ours but in a different manner. We haven't done something like ghost city's and family control but we've definitely let things get out of hand fast. China can bury themselves however they see fit but when they do they will not care what the outside thinks.

 

[hmt5000]

read that China put another 2.8 million people in lockdown yesterday.

 

[azurricat2010]

Why is the population decreasing so much? Is it that whole one child policy they had?

Exactly. They eliminated it, but way too late to help themselves. And now, extremely low fertility rates have been normalized at the 1.1-1.3 kids per woman level, which is far below the replacement level (which is a bit above 2kids/woman).

This is compounded by two other problems: (1) basically no net immigration to help boost the population (in fact, many of the best and brightest leave for other countries), and (2) an extreme gender imbalance problem where the male-to-female ratios is 1.2 to 1.3 for some age brackets and regions. The latter has huge social implications for societal well-being, crime, etc.

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar..._shrinking_with_huge_consequences_836069.html

The above article builds on a lot of what Señor Hack was saying above.

As entropy13 answered, basically, the one child policy started the problem.

But one article/film I saw recently was that many are protesting the state by telling threatening officials “I am the last generation.” It seems the Party loves to harass folk with threats to their children’s educational and job opportunities, and the folks have come up with a novel defense: have no children to be threatened!!

If you (or anyone) is like 20 years old, today, they will see something unknown to mankind: a massive population decrease in the leading population country in the world.

It's not just a China problem either. Population is on the decline in most Asian and European countries** and has been for decades. Soon it'll be like that in the states as well.

For context just look up population pyramids*** by country and you'll see large populations in the age 30 or 40+ groups but smaller ones in the groups underneath.

**more pronounced in Europe than Asia

***world growth rate is expected to be near zero by 2094

Edit: any birthrate under 2 means the population will decrease. Needs to be 2.1 or higher to increase.

 

[The-Hack]

China can bury themselves however they see fit but when they do they will not care what the outside thinks.

China has always been centrally focused.

Unlike Anglos, Europeans, etc., you can’t point to an era in Chinese history where they’ve attempted to expand into other regions of the world.

Maybe it started with a culture based on “the Middle Kingdom.”

But the waste of tens of trillions building cities that will never be filled is bizarre beyond belief: why didn’t they allow their investors to buy Chinese government bonds at a decent return to build their blue water Navy? Or create investment funds for the creation of industries they lack, such as a homegrown automotive industry?

 

[The-Hack]

read that China put another 2.8 million people in lockdown yesterday.

They have about driven their people bat-sh!t-crazy over Covid.

Think of our “shelter in place,” but with your door nailed shut by a Party Official!!

I saw a brief night-time film of Shanghai high-rises, where folks were, by the tens of thousands, standing at windows or apartment stoops, literally wailing and shouting their anguish.

[I found it on YouTube by searching “Shanghai Wailing.”]

This is tough to watch:

 

[BMoore2]

I admire anyone who can praise China for anything, after we shipped our jobs there, allowed them to steal our intellectual property, and have accepted their BS explanation of the origins of COVID. They can get pumped.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

It's not just a China problem either. Population is on the decline in most Asian and European countries** and has been for decades. Soon it'll be like that in the states as well.

For context just look up population pyramids*** by country and you'll see large populations in the age 30 or 40+ groups but smaller ones in the groups underneath.

**more pronounced in Europe than Asia

***world growth rate is expected to be near zero by 2094

Edit: any birthrate under 2 means the population will decrease. Needs to be 2.1 or higher to increase.

The US has been under 2.1 for a while. Its way below that now.

 

[chroix]

350 million people living in poverty. Evergreen $600 billion default waiting to happen. I understand the concern but they’ve got huge structural challenges to over come.

 

[The-Hack]

I admire anyone who can praise China for anything,

If you find anyone praising China, let us know!!

 

[The-Hack]

The US has been under 2.1 for a while. Its way below that now.

True, but even with just legal immigration, we are growing, and can continue to do so at our chosen level, from now on, if we secure the Southern Border. If we fail to secure the border, we grow faster.

 

[WildcatofNati]

If you find anyone praising China, let us know!!

Are you also wanting World War 3 with China, as well as one with...well, you know who. I can't be too specific, or I'm liable to get banned from this thread, as I was from the warmonger thread.

 

[hmt5000]

Mongolia is asking for help in negotiating a land lease with Russia to build a pipeline to China. I don't know why China doesn't just take that country when they took several other regions and countries. Mongolia asking for help in negotiating a deal shows how easy it would be for China to just steamroll in.

 

[The-Hack]

Are you also wanting World War 3 with China,

My question is whether China wants WWIII?

 

[hmt5000]

My question is whether China wants WWIII?

I think China wants a global depression and then they think they can outgrow everyone else and dominate without ever having to fight. Their shutdowns seem more geared to trick the rest of the world to lockdown again than they do to slow a new covid outbreak.

 

[Dig Dirkler]

Robert Crimo is the shooter. Rapper from Chicago that goes by the name Awake. Another Leftist.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

If you find anyone praising China, let us know!!

They are usually great at gymnastics. That wall? Pretty damn great.