His dream might be to play for UK, but his ultimate dream is to make it to the NBA and make an actual career out of playing basketball, one that will still pay 5-10x or maybe 50x as much as the NIL money he's getting here.
That said, I do think there's a draft threshold at play here. If he's a top5-10 pick, he's gone. And he SHOULD be gone. But if he slips to late lottery and the possibility of being out of the lottery, I could see him deciding to play another year, where he can showcase his talents from start to finish. He now has all the confidence he needs, and Cal will play him as much as he wants.
He'd still get drafted, almost assuredly, in the top part of the 1st round (the injury thing is starting to become less and less of an issue IMO, as guys are rehabbing better).. and he could become a UK legend, if we get a Final4 this year, and he comes back to make UK a top10 team all year with a shot at another Final4.