Super Important to Stay a 3 Seed

[Tampa_cat54]

I think this year in particular, it's incredibly important to stay a 3 seed.

The difference between the 1 seeds and 2 seeds this year is noticeable.

Auburn
Alabama
Duke
Florida

Those are almost certainly going to be the 1 seeds.

The 2 seeds will probably be some combination of:

Tennessee
Houston
Wisconsin
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

The talent difference between the potential 1s and potential 2s is pretty large IMO.

Beyond just avoiding a dreaded 12/5 or 13/4 matchup, we could also avoid that batch of 1 seeds for another round, three of which (hell, maybe all FOUR) could be seeking revenge against us. (I'm calling our shot now, we're going to beat Auburn in Rupp).

So it's super, super important to avoid dropping to a 4 seed or lower.

Means we HAVE to beat OU and LSU obviously, and HAVE to win at least one of the other 3 (Mizzou, Bama, Auburn), and HAVE to make it at least to Friday of the SEC tournament.

If we can beat OU, LSU, Auburn, and then beat a team like Miss State or Ole Miss on Thursday of the SEC Tournament, think we would HAVE to stay on that 3 line.

Is it possible?

 

[chasingwildcat]

I think this year in particular, it's incredibly important to stay a 3 seed.

The difference between the 1 seeds and 2 seeds this year is noticeable.

Auburn
Alabama
Duke
Florida

Those are almost certainly going to be the 1 seeds.

The 2 seeds will probably be some combination of:

Tennessee
Houston
Wisconsin
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

The talent difference between the potential 1s and potential 2s is pretty large IMO.

Beyond just avoiding a dreaded 12/5 or 13/4 matchup, we could also avoid that batch of 1 seeds for another round, three of which (hell, maybe all FOUR) could be seeking revenge against us. (I'm calling our shot now, we're going to beat Auburn in Rupp).

So it's super, super important to avoid dropping to a 4 seed or lower.

Means we HAVE to beat OU and LSU obviously, and HAVE to win at least one of the other 3 (Mizzou, Bama, Auburn), and HAVE to make it at least to Friday of the SEC tournament.

If we can beat OU, LSU, Auburn, and then beat a team like Miss State or Ole Miss on Thursday of the SEC Tournament, think we would HAVE to stay on that 3 line.

Is it possible?

More likely we win 2-3 remaining, and get a low 4 seed

 

[know1]

It's more important for us to be healthy. There's no doubt I'd rather be a 4 or 5 seed and fully healthy vs a 3 seed with 2-3 guys still out because we brought them back early to protect that vaunted 3 seed.

 

[hotelblue]

one thing about those 4 number one seeds. as good as they are, they’re common opponents. to date, we also have a winning record against.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Might be better to rest our injured guys the rest of the way and we fall to a 6 seed, if we want to avoid the 1 seed.

Healthy, we are as good or better than all the 2-3 seed candidates, IMHO.

We would still get a fairly good matchup with an 11 seed, then take care of the 3 seed.

Then the 2 seed would be a toss up.

Heck, we get Butler and Robinson back, we might be favored over the 3 and not much of an underdog against the 2.

While a 3 seed would be ideal, a 6 seed seems better than a 4 or 5, because of the difference between the projected 1 and 2 seeds.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Aside from that you slip into 4/5 the first two round locations aren't nearly as ideal

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think this year in particular, it's incredibly important to stay a 3 seed.

The difference between the 1 seeds and 2 seeds this year is noticeable.

Auburn
Alabama
Duke
Florida

Those are almost certainly going to be the 1 seeds.

The 2 seeds will probably be some combination of:

Tennessee
Houston
Wisconsin
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

5-1 against the teams you are suggesting as the 1 & 2 seeds and 3 losses to teams outside the tournament makes this season one of the most head shakers ever.

 

[ThroughBlue]

How mad would you be if Kentucky was your 6

 

[Tampa_cat54]

one thing about those 4 number one seeds. as good as they are, they’re common opponents. to date, we also have a winning record against.

Yeah but that's not what I want. Revenge in the tournament is a real factor (like how Auburn beat us in the Elite Eight after we smoked them 3 times in the season).

I don't want to go into a revenge game where Duke turns it up 6 notches simply because we beat them.

Give me a 2 seeded Wisconsin or Houston team instead and let's ride.

 

[hotelblue]

Yeah but that's not what I want. Revenge in the tournament is a real factor (like how Auburn beat us in the Elite Eight after we smoked them 3 times in the season).

I don't want to go into a revenge game where Duke turns it up 6 notches simply because we beat them.

Give me a 2 seeded Wisconsin or Houston team instead and let's ride.

everyone can have an opinion, but it doesn’t mean the premise is correct. in terms of matchups, a team like houston is exactly who we don’t want to play. even assuming we’re healthy.

 

[Aike]

everyone can have an opinion, but it doesn’t mean the premise is correct. in terms of matchups, a team like houston is exactly who we don’t want to play. even assuming we’re healthy.

I’ll take my chances against Houston in the Sweet 16. They would be favored, but great offense beats great defense. When our offense is clicking we will be a tough out.

 

[runt#69]

I think it's impossible not to envision, of all the Number one seeds, that IF Kentucky falls to a #4 or #5 seed, there will be only one choice to put them into a region with.

dUKe - in the east, of course, of course.

I can't escape that. And I'd take it if they want us to play them again. Sign us up.

that is all.

Go Big Blue !

 

[HenryMuto]

With the schedule we have left I highly doubt there is any chance to stay a 3 seed.

Almost a lock to lose at Bama and going to be heavy dogs at Auburn and a likely decent size dog at Missouri.

Even if we beat Oklahoma which will likely be a 50/50 game that be likely 3 more losses then add 1 more in the SEC tournament.

That gives us 12 losses you think 12 loss team is getting a 3 seed ?

We will be lucky to get a 4 seed with 12 losses.

Now if we somehow miracle a win vs Bama or Auburn or beat Missouri then things change if we also beat LSU and Oklahoma as well.

 

[HenryMuto]

Aside from that you slip into 4/5 the first two round locations aren't nearly as ideal

Not to mention the 12/13 seeds are a lot harder to beat than the 14 (Last year notwithstanding)

 

[Aike]

With the schedule we have left I highly doubt there is any chance to stay a 3 seed.

Almost a lock to lose at Bama and going to be heavy dogs at Auburn and a likely decent size dog at Missouri.

Even if we beat Oklahoma which will likely be a 50/50 game that be likely 3 more losses then add 1 more in the SEC tournament.

That gives us 12 losses you think 12 loss team is getting a 3 seed ?

We will be lucky to get a 4 seed with 12 losses.

Now if we somehow miracle a win vs Bama or Auburn or beat Missouri then things change if we also beat LSU and Oklahoma as well.

We don’t play at Auburn and won’t be a heavy dog at home.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Not to mention the 12/13 seeds are a lot harder to beat than the 14 (Last year notwithstanding)

Yep.

I figure there's a couple things going against 4s and 5s the way this thing is set up.

1) All the good locations close to home are usually taken by that time and your forced to play quite a bit of distance sometimes even being closer to the 12/13 seed.

2) The 12s are usually the last at large teams which you figure if they are the teams on the right side of the bubble and probably playing their best basketball at the time March rolls around.

 

[TheDude73]

Going to be painfully difficult if Jaxson and Butler don't get fixed soon. Being out again tomorrow just sucks. Bama is going to be ready to whip some ass and take our no-guard team out back to the woodshed.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Going to be painfully difficult if Jaxson and Butler don't get fixed soon. Being out again tomorrow just sucks. Bama is going to be ready to whip some ass and take our no-guard team out back to the woodshed.

We'll see

 

[HenryMuto]

We don’t play at Auburn and won’t be a heavy dog at home.

I know we play at home still will be a heavy dog

 

[Tampa_cat54]

With the schedule we have left I highly doubt there is any chance to stay a 3 seed.

Almost a lock to lose at Bama and going to be heavy dogs at Auburn and a likely decent size dog at Missouri.

Even if we beat Oklahoma which will likely be a 50/50 game that be likely 3 more losses then add 1 more in the SEC tournament.

That gives us 12 losses you think 12 loss team is getting a 3 seed ?

We will be lucky to get a 4 seed with 12 losses.

Now if we somehow miracle a win vs Bama or Auburn or beat Missouri then things change if we also beat LSU and Oklahoma as well.

Literally all we would need to do is win one of those 3 that you mentioned (Bama, home vs. Auburn, Mizzou), and then one in the SEC Tournament, and we would finish the season with a MINIMUM of ELEVEN Quad-1 wins, and only ONE loss outside of Q1.

Only looking at the number of losses is not the way to evaluate resume.

A team with ELEVEN Q1 wins, only ONE loss in Q2, and 8 Quad 1A wins, including all 8 of them being Top-15, and what would be a 6-2 record against teams seeded either 1 or 2, is a resume that gets you a 3 seed.

It's WAY more possible than you think.

And I think we are going to beat Auburn in Rupp, we SHOULD be fully healthy by then.

 

[catfan220]

I think this year in particular, it's incredibly important to stay a 3 seed.

The difference between the 1 seeds and 2 seeds this year is noticeable.

Auburn
Alabama
Duke
Florida

Those are almost certainly going to be the 1 seeds.

The 2 seeds will probably be some combination of:

Tennessee
Houston
Wisconsin
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

The talent difference between the potential 1s and potential 2s is pretty large IMO.

Beyond just avoiding a dreaded 12/5 or 13/4 matchup, we could also avoid that batch of 1 seeds for another round, three of which (hell, maybe all FOUR) could be seeking revenge against us. (I'm calling our shot now, we're going to beat Auburn in Rupp).

So it's super, super important to avoid dropping to a 4 seed or lower.

Means we HAVE to beat OU and LSU obviously, and HAVE to win at least one of the other 3 (Mizzou, Bama, Auburn), and HAVE to make it at least to Friday of the SEC tournament.

If we can beat OU, LSU, Auburn, and then beat a team like Miss State or Ole Miss on Thursday of the SEC Tournament, think we would HAVE to stay on that 3 line.

Is it possible?

Jones said on KSR today he thought the staff is managing the injury situation as best they can to be in position for a 3 seed so I think you’re on to something. Good call.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I know we play at home still will be a heavy dog

probably 4 or 5 currently. Looks like teams with that line win about 65% of the time.

Nothing insurmontable tho

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Literally all we would need to do is win one of those 3 that you mentioned (Bama, home vs. Auburn, Mizzou), and then one in the SEC Tournament, and we would finish the season with a MINIMUM of ELEVEN Quad-1 wins, and only ONE loss outside of Q1.

Only looking at the number of losses is not the way to evaluate resume.

A team with ELEVEN Q1 wins, only ONE loss in Q2, and 8 Quad 1A wins, including all 8 of them being Top-15, and what would be a 6-2 record against teams seeded either 1 or 2, is a resume that gets you a 3 seed.

It's WAY more possible than you think.

And I think we are going to beat Auburn in Rupp, we SHOULD be fully healthy by then.

Ding ding ding. To most CBB fans who follow the sport closely, the reaction to that is “duh!” but the chicken little mentality prevents the slightest sign of light from peering its way through the basement door for many.

 

[catfan220]

Might be better to rest our injured guys the rest of the way and we fall to a 6 seed, if we want to avoid the 1 seed.

Healthy, we are as good or better than all the 2-3 seed candidates, IMHO.

We would still get a fairly good matchup with an 11 seed, then take care of the 3 seed.

Then the 2 seed would be a toss up.

Heck, we get Butler and Robinson back, we might be favored over the 3 and not much of an underdog against the 2.

While a 3 seed would be ideal, a 6 seed seems better than a 4 or 5, because of the difference between the projected 1 and 2 seeds.

Harder to defend losing to drop to your desired seed than trying to win to get a desired seed. I know you’re not suggesting throwing games but implying the coaches/team aren’t worried about losing some of the next games would be a bad look and would hurt morale and momentum. Better to go for it and get a less desirable 4 or 5 seed than tank to a 6.

 

[HenryMuto]

You all forget what other teams do matters as much as we do when you lose games. Maybe we don't move down if we lose to Bama or Auburn but that doesn't mean another team can't win and pass us up.

We don't play the seeding game in a vacuum you can't say you lose 2 games you expect to lose so you don't move down. It always depends on what others around you do.

 

[Digger-Cat]

5-1 against the teams you are suggesting as the 1 & 2 seeds and 3 losses to teams outside the tournament makes this season one of the most head shakers ever.

It definitely is.

Looking at the bubble teams, so many of them gave UK as their best win (Ohio State, UGA, Arkansas, Texas… ).

Injuries suck, but we should have beaten all those teams.

 

[Digger-Cat]

You all forget what other teams do matters as much as we do when you lose games. Maybe we don't move down if we lose to Bama or Auburn but that doesn't mean another team can't win and pass us up.

We don't play the seeding game in a vacuum you can't say you lose 2 games you expect to lose so you don't move down. It always depends on what others around you do.

What teams are you saying would pass UK? Seems like the teams right behind us have more warts than we do

 

[BIG BLUE GURU]

Just make the tournament and win a game or two. The rest is gravy considering the injuries and throwing together a team in a few weeks. Some of you just live in misery and no matter what Kentucky has done it isn’t good enough. The crowd that is always hyping up the next game as a Must Win. We are in the dang tournament and that is all the majority of fans wanted before the season started and win a game or two. Our best chance to do that is rest Butler and Jaxson as much as possible. At this point play for the tournament.

 

[Aike]

I know we play at home still will be a heavy dog

I’ve got it Auburn -2 as of this moment. Could swing a bit over the next week, especially if we don’t get any healthier.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You all forget what other teams do matters as much as we do when you lose games. Maybe we don't move down if we lose to Bama or Auburn but that doesn't mean another team can't win and pass us up.

We don't play the seeding game in a vacuum you can't say you lose 2 games you expect to lose so you don't move down. It always depends on what others around you do.

My only concern with this is that almost all the teams around us, don't have the injuries we have. Teams like MSU, Michigan, TTU, etc.. they have the team available, that got them to where they are today. Kentucky on the other hand, does not. I'm sure other teams around us will take some losses.. but I feel pretty confident that most of the top25 will finish with a pretty solid winning percentage (give or take some teams). Kentuckys final teams games are very much up in the air being down 3 guys right now.

The good news is that these will almost all be Q1/quality losses.. so it may not matter. But I don't expect the teams around us to lose as much as we might going down the stretch.

Now of course, if we get back Butler next week and maybe Jrob the week after (or in the SECT) that changes everything. But we really need one of them back to beat Alabama/Auburn/mizz.

 

[JC CATS]

Might be better to rest our injured guys the rest of the way and we fall to a 6 seed, if we want to avoid the 1 seed.

Healthy, we are as good or better than all the 2-3 seed candidates, IMHO.

We would still get a fairly good matchup with an 11 seed, then take care of the 3 seed.

Then the 2 seed would be a toss up.

Heck, we get Butler and Robinson back, we might be favored over the 3 and not much of an underdog against the 2.

While a 3 seed would be ideal, a 6 seed seems better than a 4 or 5, because of the difference between the projected 1 and 2 seeds.

Also we have beat 2 of the 1 seeds and played a 3rd really close

 

[HenryMuto]

I’ve got it Auburn -2 as of this moment. Could swing a bit over the next week, especially if we don’t get any healthier.

Sure seems like it will be more considering Auburn is #1 and Tennessee was favored by 3.5 and they are no where near Auburn this year.

Especially if Butler and Robinson are out.

Also consider what Auburn is actually done forget any point spread it be a really hard game to win vs a team that has 2 losses all year and has lost only 1 road game all year in a brutal SEC (and that was to Duke not a SEC team)

The % chance to win will be much higher than the point spread according to ESPN I bet that little % chance to win they show before each game.

 

[HenryMuto]

What teams are you saying would pass UK? Seems like the teams right behind us have more warts than we do

Well it looks like MIchigan State has already passed or is right on our heels us since the show 1 week ago we were #10 and they were #17 and they have won 3 straight monster games since then.

Missouri is red hot and is getting close to us and if they beat us as expected in the final regular season game I could see them passing us.

A lot of people have Texas Tech already passed up (I don't agree) but if we lose 2-3 more games and they only lose 1 more.......

Some sites already had Michigan past us before last nights loss if they win out they will have passed us........

Ect
ect
ect

 

[Aike]

Sure seems like it will be more considering Auburn is #1 and Tennessee was favored by 3.5 and they are no where near Auburn this year.

Especially if Butler and Robinson are out.

Also consider what Auburn is actually done forget any point spread it be a really hard game to win vs a team that has 2 losses all year and has lost only 1 road game all year in a brutal SEC (and that was to Duke not a SEC team)

The % chance to win will be much higher than the point spread according to ESPN I bet that little % chance to win they show before each game.

Tennessee shouldn’t have been 3.5. But yeah, it will be more if Butler and Robinson are still out.

Auburn is really good. They’ve been the best team all year. But they’ve played several tight games, and playing at Rupp is no picnic.

 

[blue cincy]

I figure we will be in the 3 to 6 seed range. Today will be a big loss unless we play a slow down defensive game. We do not have the guys available to stay up with Alabama in a run and gun game. I suspect if we run and gun it will be a 25 plus point loss. (heck I am way off on my thoughts most of the time but this is the feeling I get this morning). We lose large we will drop to a 4 seed at least and depending on who wins we might be the lowest 4 seed. We have to win Oklahoma and LSU and maybe pull of a win against Auburn or Mizzou if we get all guys back (except Kerr). If we play wednesday in SEC tourney we need to win at least 2 to help seeding. If we play Thursday we need 1 win to stay pat but 2 wins really helps. Matchups are going to be huge again this year in the post season. GO BIG BLUE!!!

 

[HenryMuto]

Wisconsin already passed us up as well they were #11 last weekend

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Like @Tampa_cat54 said, ELEVEN quad 1 wins is the key here. IIRC, we also have the most top 15 wins of anyone.

 

[HenryMuto]

This guy has Kentucky already down to #16 overall I will assume Kentucky will be a 5 seed after today if they lose in his bracket. I guess he is one of the people that don't account for what the NCAA committee has projected last Saturday.

FMP

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