Still a 3 Seed per Lunardi

[bucsrule8872]

Bracket Matrix updated overnight, likely adding some new updates. Kentucky has dropped a bit and is now dead even with the last 3-seed with TTU at 3.38. Michigan is the 1st 4-seed at 3.64.

Kentucky has since added a few more 4-seed projections and someone weirdly put us at a 6-seed already. While I think that's where we are heading, it's a little too early for that. But maybe he sees what might be inevitable unless we get some injuries back. I imagine not everyone does these brackets the same way, so this guy might be doing his on where he thinks teams end up, not where they are now.

I think based on the reveal on Saturday and our remaining schedule, we would probably need to lose out to fall to a 6 seed. That includes a no show in the SEC tourney.

We lost to a bubble team Saturday and didn’t drop much at all. What is going to happen when we play at Bama? We aren’t moving down even if we lose. Same with Auburn and at Mizzou.

Our remaining schedule is so strong, we are pretty much insulated from falling very much.

Losing to LSU would be the worst thing that could happen when it comes to our seeding.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Miss States big win Tuesday may help us as we are looking like we will split the 8/9 with them. Beating A&M puts them in the driver seat for the 8, meaning we will us play South Carolina on Wednesday as the 9, hopefully getting another good win there and then beating MSU on Thursday.

2-1 in the SEC tourney and 3-3 down the stretch here puts us at 22-12, probably a 5 seed. If we go 2-4 or 1-1 in the SEC, I’d say we are a 6.

Unless we lose to Vandy tonight, I can’t see us or MSU moving off the 8-9 range at this point.

We would have to lose out and lose to SCAR in the SEC to fall to a 6, IMHO.

And opportunities against Bama, Auburn, Mizzou, and OU to get another Quad 1 win.

I think a 6 seed in the NCAA’s is our doomsday (lose out) scenario.

Beat Vandy tonight, take care of LSU, and don’t lose to a bad team like SCAR in the SEC tourney opener, and we won’t fall below a 4 seed, IMHO.

Beat one of Bama, Auburn, or Mizzou on top of that and we secure a 3, IMHO.

A win at OU helps some, as it will be a Quad 1, I think, but I don’t know if it moves the needle as much as a big win against those other three would.

Every win we get in our remaining schedule is going to help us maintain or push us up. And only the LSU game could really drop us very much if we lose, when it comes to the regular season.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

We would have to lose out and lose to SCAR in the SEC to fall to a 6, IMHO.

And opportunities against Bama, Auburn, Mizzou, and OU to get another Quad 1 win.

I think a 6 seed in the NCAA’s is our doomsday (lose out) scenario.

Beat Vandy tonight, take care of LSU, and don’t lose to a bad team like SCAR in the SEC tourney opener, and we won’t fall below a 4 seed, IMHO.

Beat one of Bama, Auburn, or Mizzou on top of that and we secure a 3, IMHO.

A win at OU helps some, as it will be a Quad 1, I think, but I don’t know if it moves the needle as much as a big win against those other three would.

Every win we get in our remaining schedule is going to help us maintain or push us up. And only the LSU game could really drop us very much if we lose, when it comes to the regular season.

Maybe. It's hard for me to imagine in this scenario, losing 8 in a row going into the NCAAT and losing like 12 of our last 15 or whatever, and the NCAA still gives us a 6-seed. That wpuld be unprecedented. If we lose all these games, our metrics will have to undoubtedly drop and we're already right on the border of a 4-seed. I have a feeling our Net and other metrics would drop enough to push us into the 7 or 8 or even 9 seed range.

Tonight is such a must win IMO. Feels like we really just need to bouy this last half of the season with a few wins to keep metrics decent.

But then again, maybe the metrics won't move much if we lose out.. idk.

 

[wildcat2243]

Let’s see if this holds up after tonight

 

[Padsfs07]

A 17-15 team would not get a 6 seed.

 

[FtWorthCat]

A 17-15 team would not get a 6 seed.

nss

 

[aceman509]

The losses don't help though either. At the rate we are stacking them out the amount of losses you take are going to knock your seed down also remember as you lose other teams win and they pass you by with their wins even if your losses are not "bad"

Depends on the specific games you are talking about.

Weirdly enough if we lose to Auburn and Bama by less than 5 points each we actually improve our overall stance slightly since that would improve our predictive metrics, and have 0 negative impact on our resume since they will be quad 1-A losses.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Maybe. It's hard for me to imagine in this scenario, losing 8 in a row going into the NCAAT and losing like 12 of our last 15 or whatever, and the NCAA still gives us a 6-seed. That wpuld be unprecedented. If we lose all these games, our metrics will have to undoubtedly drop and we're already right on the border of a 4-seed. I have a feeling our Net and other metrics would drop enough to push us into the 7 or 8 or even 9 seed range.

Tonight is such a must win IMO. Feels like we really just need to bouy this last half of the season with a few wins to keep metrics decent.

But then again, maybe the metrics won't move much if we lose out.. idk.

These are unprecedented times.

The SEC has 14 of their 16 teams projected into the tourney. There are simply no games that pull us down because of a loss, outside LSU and SCAR.

This is a strange time in the SEC. Every year prior, we had must win situations where we needed to get quality wins and avoid crappy losses. We already have plenty of quality wins and there just aren’t any crappy losses, besides LSU, left on our schedule.

So forget what you know going down the stretch. Four of our last six are major SOS enhancers. No harm if we lose them and they actually help us just playing them.

Win one of those and we get a major boost.

Lose tonight and we fall no farther than a 5 seed at the very worst. Probably a 4 seed.

Then as long as we take care of LSU, we should head into the SEC tourney no worse than a 5 and probably a 4.

And as long as we don’t lose that first game to LSU or SCAR we stay in that 4-5 range, IMHO.

If we fall below a 6, I will be a bit surprised, even by losing out. They don’t do the “last 10 games” thing anymore, so going in on a losing streak doesn’t matter seeding wise.

If we do fall to a 7 or 8, then the SC has some explaining to do and will probably offer up some lame excuse, but it will boil down to them feeling like we are on a slide and won’t keep injuries in mind.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

These are unprecedented times.

The SEC has 14 of their 16 teams projected into the tourney. There are simply no games that pull us down because of a loss, outside LSU and SCAR.

This is a strange time in the SEC. Every year prior, we had must win situations where we needed to get quality wins and avoid crappy losses. We already have plenty of quality wins and there just aren’t any crappy losses, besides LSU, left on our schedule.

So forget what you know going down the stretch. Four of our last six are major SOS enhancers. No harm if we lose them and they actually help us just playing them.

Win one of those and we get a major boost.

Lose tonight and we fall no farther than a 5 seed at the very worst. Probably a 4 seed.

Then as long as we take care of LSU, we should head into the SEC tourney no worse than a 5 and probably a 4.

And as long as we don’t lose that first game to LSU or SCAR we stay in that 4-5 range, IMHO.

If we fall below a 6, I will be a bit surprised, even by losing out. They don’t do the “last 10 games” thing anymore, so going in on a losing streak doesn’t matter seeding wise.

If we do fall to a 7 or 8, then the SC has some explaining to do and will probably offer up some lame excuse, but it will boil down to them feeling like we are on a slide and won’t keep injuries in mind.

You’re flushing your time down the toilet explaining it. Yesterday I sent a direct link to the NCAA website showing multiple teams have gotten at large bids with as bad a record or even worse than the one we’d have even if we literally lost every single remaining game (won’t happen)….each of those teams having played nowhere near the schedule we have and can’t match our historic quality wins. Conversation over at that point, right? Nope, they’ll still argue. So at that point, it’s worth asking what is the purpose? Some people literally want the sky to be falling and i have idea what the reason or rhyme for that would be, but it’s patently false on face value and there is no amount of evidence that can change a hardened mind.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

These are unprecedented times.

The SEC has 14 of their 16 teams projected into the tourney. There are simply no games that pull us down because of a loss, outside LSU and SCAR.

This is a strange time in the SEC. Every year prior, we had must win situations where we needed to get quality wins and avoid crappy losses. We already have plenty of quality wins and there just aren’t any crappy losses, besides LSU, left on our schedule.

So forget what you know going down the stretch. Four of our last six are major SOS enhancers. No harm if we lose them and they actually help us just playing them.

Win one of those and we get a major boost.

Lose tonight and we fall no farther than a 5 seed at the very worst. Probably a 4 seed.

Then as long as we take care of LSU, we should head into the SEC tourney no worse than a 5 and probably a 4.

And as long as we don’t lose that first game to LSU or SCAR we stay in that 4-5 range, IMHO.

If we fall below a 6, I will be a bit surprised, even by losing out. They don’t do the “last 10 games” thing anymore, so going in on a losing streak doesn’t matter seeding wise.

If we do fall to a 7 or 8, then the SC has some explaining to do and will probably offer up some lame excuse, but it will boil down to them feeling like we are on a slide and won’t keep injuries in mind.

Well, we DID get pulled down by the loss to Texas on BM. I'm not sure why people keep saying it had no effect. It 100% happened and is currently happening despite some people wanting to believe it meant nothing. It dropped us to a tie with TTU for the 3rd and 4th 3-seed, where as before we had the outright 3-seed by like 0.4pts. Did it drop us a whole seed line? No. But it did dropped us none the less.

At the end of the day, if you lose, and other teams near you win, you are going to slide down to some degree. We saw it with Texas.

I guess I agree that the SC needs to look at our whole body of work, and that might save us in the end. But losing out will, IMO, see us drop to a 7-seed and maybe beyond if other teams win around us.

 

[HenryMuto]

A 17-15 team would not get a 6 seed.

The worst record to ever make the NCAA tournament as at large was Georgia at 16-14 they got an 8 seed.

I think if Kentucky lost out that is exactly where they would be 8 seed.

The thing is no team has ever made it only being 1 game above .500 as at large 2 is the lowest you can go and you have to have extrodanary reasons why you made it.

Kentucky has 7 quad 1 A wins and 2nd SOS

 

[bthaunert]

A 17-15 team would not get a 6 seed.

It's not as far fetched as it sounds. Iowa State went 19-13 last year and was a 6 seed, losing 11 out of their last 17 games going into the tournament. Bama was 19-13 as a 6 seed in 2022. Neither of those teams had the quality wins that UK will going into the tournament. It's not totally crazy.

Regardless, no way we lose our last 7. I think 2-5 is the worst we will do, landing us at 19-13 with a 6 seed or better locked up. It would be a disappointing end to the season, but won't crush us in terms of seeding.

 

[jwphelps]

Just updated this morning. As of this moment, we are 5-1 against the projected #1 and #2 seeds.

Men's Bracketology: Kansas keeps sliding

Never has Kansas been worse than a 4-seed under Bill Self -- until this season (potentially). Is this a blip in the Jayhawks' decades of consistently high-quality seasons?

www.espn.com

I agree with KSR on this, it may be harder to win the SEC tournament than make the final 4 for UK.

 

[HenryMuto]

I just checked Brad Evans seems strange to me he has Texas Tech at 11 and Kentucky at 15. It is as if what the real selection committee had to say meant nothing. Real committee had Kentucky at 10 and they have a road lose to Texas and Texas Tech was 13 with a home win over Okla St and a road loss to TCU. incredible how people totally ignore what the committee told you.

FMP

thegamingjuice.com

 

[gharding07]

We're definitely not a 3 seed right now.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Well, we DID get pulled down by the loss to Texas on BM. I'm not sure why people keep saying it had no effect. It 100% happened and is currently happening despite some people wanting to believe it meant nothing. It dropped us to a tie with TTU for the 3rd and 4th 3-seed, where as before we had the outright 3-seed by like 0.4pts. Did it drop us a whole seed line? No. But it did dropped us none the less.

At the end of the day, if you lose, and other teams near you win, you are going to slide down to some degree. We saw it with Texas.

I guess I agree that the SC needs to look at our whole body of work, and that might save us in the end. But losing out will, IMO, see us drop to a 7-seed and maybe beyond if other teams win around us.

What about those other teams? It’s not like every single one of the teams competing with us for seeding is going to win out. And their schedule is nowhere near as tough as ours.

We will lose games, but so will most of those teams as well. And they will likely lose to weaker opponents.

Like I said, the only really bad loss potentially left on our schedule is LSU. That one could drop us a full seed line. The others could cumulate to a drop, but I don’t think it will drop us that much. Heck, just playing the remaining road games and Auburn could improve our seeding, as long as we don’t get blown out.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

What about those other teams? It’s not like every single one of the teams competing with us for seeding is going to win out. And their schedule is nowhere near as tough as ours.

We will lose games, but so will most of those teams as well. And they will likely lose to weaker opponents.

Like I said, the only really bad loss potentially left on our schedule is LSU. That one could drop us a full seed line. The others could cumulate to a drop, but I don’t think it will drop us that much. Heck, just playing the remaining road games and Auburn could improve our seeding, as long as we don’t get blown out.

I don't disagree. Some of them will lose as well. But none of those teams are as injured as we are. I sort of expect Michigan, MSU and TTU to win the majority of their remaining games.. they will likely be favored in all of them except for one or two (I haven't looked at their schedules).. so my worry is that yes, they will lose a game or two, and yes their opponents will be worse.. but will Kentucky finish 2-4 or worse? And again in the example we're using where we lose out.. were going to slide little by little regardless of the opponent, because a team like Michigan is likely going 4-2 or better (unless they get the injuries we have).

Let hope we win tonight so we don't have to find out.

 

[HenryMuto]

We will be a 5 seed after tonight if this defense keeps up

 

[bucsrule8872]

I don't disagree. Some of them will lose as well. But none of those teams are as injured as we are. I sort of expect Michigan, MSU and TTU to win the majority of their remaining games.. they will likely be favored in all of them except for one or two (I haven't looked at their schedules).. so my worry is that yes, they will lose a game or two, and yes their opponents will be worse.. but will Kentucky finish 2-4 or worse? And again in the example we're using where we lose out.. were going to slide little by little regardless of the opponent, because a team like Michigan is likely going 4-2 or better (unless they get the injuries we have).

Let hope we win tonight so we don't have to find out.

None of those teams will play two number 1 seeds in their home stretch like we will. None will have as tough of road games as we do.

You also have to consider that other teams are going to slip up who are behind us and will fall further than we do. There will be some potential 4 and 5 seeds who lose big games and slide to the 6 or 7 seed lines.

Looking at the 4-6 seed lines, that’s 12 teams that have to outperform us down the stretch to push us down to a 7.

Possible, but not really probable.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

None of those teams will play two number 1 seeds in their home stretch like we will. None will have as tough of road games as we do.

You also have to consider that other teams are going to slip up who are behind us and will fall further than we do. There will be some potential 4 and 5 seeds who lose big games and slide to the 6 or 7 seed lines.

Looking at the 4-6 seed lines, that’s 12 teams that have to outperform us down the stretch to push us down to a 7.

Possible, but not really probable.

Well thankfully, we probably won't have to worry about it with the win tonight.

 

[HenryMuto]

Great 2nd half win by 21 vs a tournament team.

Time for the idiots to move us back up to our 3 seed and Texas Tech loser as an 8 point favorite to non tourney TCU to a 4 seed as they were by the committee.

God damn "experts" are stupid one site had us down to #16 overall Sunday night like really ? WTF idiots

 

[HenryMuto]

I just posted this on the site that had dropped Kentucky to #16 overall Sunday night.

@henrymuto​

2 minutes ago
Kentucky beats tournament team Vandy by 21 without their top 3 ball handlers and not having any true PG.....NCAA committee makes them #10 overall and you guys drop them to #16 overall after a 4 point loss (was 4.5 dogs) on the road but you sure we excited about Texas Tech beating up a crappy Oklahoma State team at home. Oh ya did Kentucky just beat a good Vandy team by 21 ? Oh ya they did. Maybe next week you can drop Kentucky to a 5 seed for losing at Alabama.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

We're definitely not a 3 seed right now.

Ok thank God. I weirdly watched the NCAA Tournament committee project us a three seed, but now that gharding07 has spoken, I can now rest assured we are definitely not a three seed 😂

 

[FtWorthCat]

I just posted this on the site that had dropped Kentucky to #16 overall Sunday night.

@henrymuto​

2 minutes ago
Kentucky beats tournament team Vandy by 21 without their top 3 ball handlers and not having any true PG.....NCAA committee makes them #10 overall and you guys drop them to #16 overall after a 4 point loss (was 4.5 dogs) on the road but you sure we excited about Texas Tech beating up a crappy Oklahoma State team at home. Oh ya did Kentucky just beat a good Vandy team by 21 ? Oh ya they did. Maybe next week you can drop Kentucky to a 5 seed for losing at Alabama.

Texas Tech lost to a very mediocre TCU last night in FW.

 

[GoNoles111]

Getting to 18 wins at least locks up a 7. We really should beat LSU and split OU and Mizzou. I'm aiming for 20-11 and going into the sect healthy.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Now as long as we take care of business against LSU, I think we are comfortably on a 3 seed. Losing at Bama, at OU, vs. Auburn, and at Mizzou will not hurt us at all.

If we slide at all, it won’t be below a 4 seed, as long as we don’t lose to LSU.

 

[HenryMuto]

Texas Tech lost to a very mediocre TCU last night in FW.

Yep I posted that as well

@henrymuto​

29 minutes ago
Go ahead and move Texas Tech back to their rightful #4 seed after losing as an 8 point favorite to non tourney team TCU

 

[bucsrule8872]

Getting to 18 wins at least locks up a 7. We really should beat LSU and split OU and Mizzou. I'm aiming for 20-11 and going into the sect healthy.

A 7?

We won’t fall that low with our resume, even if we lose the rest of our games, IMHO.

We are a projected 3 seed with 4 out of the last 5 games being Quad 1 games. Hard to drop much with that kind of schedule down the stretch.

 

[HenryMuto]

Now as long as we take care of business against LSU, I think we are comfortably on a 3 seed. Losing at Bama, at OU, vs. Auburn, and at Mizzou will not hurt us at all.

If we slide at all, it won’t be below a 4 seed, as long as we don’t lose to LSU.

I don't agree with that. We can't lose 4 out of our last 5 and stay on the 3 line. It doesn't matter if we are dogs in every game.

Other teams are getting wins and even if you stay the same without a bad loss they get good wins and move past you.

I think if you lose to Bama, Auburn and Missouri even with wins over Oklahoma and LSU you still will be a 4 seed at best heading into the SEC tournament.

At some point the amount of losses matter which is why losing that Texas game hurt so damn bad.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I don't agree with that. We can't lose 4 out of our last 5 and stay on the 3 line. It doesn't matter if we are dogs in every game.

Other teams are getting wins and even if you stay the same without a bad loss they get good wins and move past you.

I think if you lose to Bama, Auburn and Missouri even with wins over Oklahoma and LSU you still will be a 4 seed at best heading into the SEC tournament.

At some point the amount of losses matter which is why losing that Texas game hurt so damn bad.

Could be. Let’s hope we don’t find out.

Losing to those guys won’t hurt much, though.

And as I said before, it goes both ways when it comes to other teams. Not all 6 or 7 teams fighting on that 3/4 seed range are going to win the rest of their games and many of them will drop games against weak teams, while we play a bunch of tourney teams. We already saw it with Texas Tech last night.

Just can’t see us falling much unless we lose to LSU.

But we won’t lose out. We will beat LSU and probably get a surprise win down the line.

I feel good about getting a 3 seed at this time, which is amazing given how short handed we are.