Stock Advice Thread

[BlueRaider22]

I like the info on energy and oil. If I didn't want to invest in one single company, is there a good ETF or Index fund that has a few of these guys in it, that's worth investing in?

I tend to believe COVID is being made out to be worse than it is. If cases go up, but deaths are still decreasing, it seems to me we are climbing out of this, and not headed for more shutdowns. In which case, I'd rather buy now before the media is like "oops, we tried to make this bigger than it was.."

Not sure about funds.


I too agree that Covid has been hyped. Much of it is undeserved......since the media just loves to sell fear. However, much of it is understood. In January/February, we knew that a very contagious and potentially massive deadly virus was on it's way......we didn't fully know what we were dealing with.......it's better to over-act than under-act. Right now there still is a lot about it we don't know and thus hype is warranted.....but certainly hype remains significantly elevated.

I don't think we'll have another shut down. However, damage is done. Companies will start to report 2nd quarter earnings in a few wks. We're gonna see A SPIT TON of companies report horrific earnings. We're also gonna see A SPIT TON of bankruptcies, foreclosures, employment freezes, etc within the next 6 months or so. I would be shocked if the market doesn't dip based off the reality of the economy..........but would be even more shocked if it doesn't dip based off some panic reaction from the reality of the economy.

To some degree, this is why I think they've waited till the end of July to pass the 2nd stimulus package. To help reduce fear, panic, and to artificially inflate the market a little while the economy bounces back.





.......And it'll appease people for a while right before the election......

 

[BlueRaider22]

With Buffet going heavy into natural gas despite his political leanings, that would be an area to buy dividend and growth stocks one would think, maybe more so than oil, IMO.

I watched an analysis of Berkshire's recent purchase of Dominion Energy.

1. First, it's worth noting that even though this cost Berkshire about $10B, it's a drop in the bucket for them......so, it's not like they put themselves out on a limb here. And it's worth noting that they bought the company......not invested in them. There's a reason for that.

2. Dominion owns a lot of North America's pipelines for natural gas and generates a substantial revenue. It's estimated that the Dominion deal will pay for itself within the next 12-14 yrs before coming pure profit.

3. Although, the global and US shift has been towards renewable energy, the reliance on Oil/Natural Gas will continue for the next 20-30 yrs.......so, there's still quite a bit of room to grow.

4. Dominion is seeking to get into renewable energy sources as time progresses.

 

[lz]

I watched an analysis of Berkshire's recent purchase of Dominion Energy.

1. First, it's worth noting that even though this cost Berkshire about $10B, it's a drop in the bucket for them......so, it's not like they put themselves out on a limb here. And it's worth noting that they bought the company......not invested in them. There's a reason for that.

2. Dominion owns a lot of North America's pipelines for natural gas and generates a substantial revenue. It's estimated that the Dominion deal will pay for itself within the next 12-14 yrs before coming pure profit.

3. Although, the global and US shift has been towards renewable energy, the reliance on Oil/Natural Gas will continue for the next 20-30 yrs.......so, there's still quite a bit of room to grow.

4. Dominion is seeking to get into renewable energy sources as time progresses.

Yes, but jury still out, may still be out in 20-30 years, Berkshire now controls a huge % of the natural gas market, more LNG will be exported.https://www.energyindepth.org/repor...rlds-top-lng-exporter-in-the-next-five-years/

 

[jameslee32]

Yes, but jury still out, may still be out in 20-30 years, Berkshire now controls a huge % of the natural gas market, more LNG will be exported.https://www.energyindepth.org/repor...rlds-top-lng-exporter-in-the-next-five-years/

Yeah, BRK didn't buy the distribution business although that is a nice cash flow business. In addition to 25% of Dominion's LNG export business, the deal gets them up to 18% of the gas transmission business in the entire US.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Yeah, BRK didn't buy the distribution business although that is a nice cash flow business. In addition to 25% of Dominion's LNG export business, the deal gets them up to 18% of the gas transmission business in the entire US.

I wonder who will run things after Munger and Buffett pass on. Buffett has long said that he doesn't get into tech because he doesn't understand it. Could you imagine what would happen if someone was in charge that understood tech companies, was competent, and had the backing of Berkshire's billions in free cash?

 

[lz]

I wonder who will run things after Munger and Buffett pass on. Buffett has long said that he doesn't get into tech because he doesn't understand it. Could you imagine what would happen if someone was in charge that understood tech companies, was competent, and had the backing of Berkshire's billions in free cash?

We likely will find out in a few short years, wish those two could live and work forever.

 

[buckethead1978]

Bought Tesla at $500 on March 24th. Wish I had the balls to buy more

 

[lz]

Bought Tesla at $500 on March 24th. Wish I had the balls to buy more

Part of the fun, move on to other choices or bite the bullet at times.

 

[Lamar Card]

Bought Tesla at $500 on March 24th. Wish I had the balls to buy more

In my world there are only two outcomes.

1. Wish I had bought more.

2. Wish I had not bought.

The eternal pessimist is strong within me.

 

[BlueRaider22]

In my world there are only two outcomes.

1. Wish I had bought more.

2. Wish I had not bought.

The eternal pessimist is strong within me.

In my world the outcomes are:

1. Buy what’s on sale in my watch list
2. If no sales, save up cash until there’s a sale.

 

[lz]

In my world the outcomes are:

1. Buy what’s on sale in my watch list
2. If no sales, save up cash until there’s a sale.

Patience pays, up about 15% each on 4 I bought July 1-LAKE, TGLVY, VIVO, DOCU. CRWD and VEEV my hottest since early May buys. I also own a little TSLA, happier with the others.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Patience pays, up about 15% each on 4 I bought July 1-LAKE, TGLVY, VIVO, DOCU. CRWD and VEEV my hottest since early May buys. I also own a little TSLA, happier with the others.

Agreed. Buying with significant margins of safeties have made me a ton of money........and on rare occasion saved me from losing more than I could've.


I was extremely fortunate. Since we were on the end of the 10+ yr bull market, I got nervous and sold some of my lower tier stocks and was in the process of saving money..........trying to anticipate a market correction. Of course, I didn't expect what Covid delivered, but was very luckily in a position to capitalize. So I unloaded on Microsoft, Apple, JPMorgan, and Disney. I had already held a big position in MSFT/APPL but just on what I bought during the March crash it's gone up >50% in 3-4 months. (Of course, I expect another drop soon which will reduce this profit)

However, I short-changed myself. I didn't know what to make of the March crash, so I didn't go through all of my cash I had on hand. I haven't done much buying over the last 3 months........just nibbled on XOM/RDSA, DAL/LUV........but mainly just saved up more cash. I'll probably unload nearly all of it if the market goes down again.


Also, at some point I'll start to buy more oil, airlines, and eventually some cruise lines.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Have y'all ever heard of the "Sell in May and Go Away" principle of investing?

I just recently heard about this from one of the Youtube talking heads that I listen to. He was saying that if start the year in January buying in regularly........stop in May......save up cash through the Summer.....then buy in regularly during the Fall......and repeat. The notion is that you will make more return on your investing than if you just regularly invested steadily all year. And apparently, it's actually very steady principle that's been around for a long, long time.

With my ETF's, Mutual Funds, etc, I've always just regularly bought in every time my paycheck came in. I guess I should not buy as much during the Summer......




https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

 

[Comebakatz3]

DOCU

Rocketing right now.

 

[lz]

Have y'all ever heard of the "Sell in May and Go Away" principle of investing?

I just recently heard about this from one of the Youtube talking heads that I listen to. He was saying that if start the year in January buying in regularly........stop in May......save up cash through the Summer.....then buy in regularly during the Fall......and repeat. The notion is that you will make more return on your investing than if you just regularly invested steadily all year. And apparently, it's actually very steady principle that's been around for a long, long time.

With my ETF's, Mutual Funds, etc, I've always just regularly bought in every time my paycheck came in. I guess I should not buy as much during the Summer......




https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

That used to happen almost yearly, think the disruptions have changed that a bit. I believe August somewhat, but particularly September is the worst month of the year for stocks.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Wish I had bought that DOCU dip right at 11:00 this morning.

 

[jameslee32]

Have y'all ever heard of the "Sell in May and Go Away" principle of investing?

I just recently heard about this from one of the Youtube talking heads that I listen to. He was saying that if start the year in January buying in regularly........stop in May......save up cash through the Summer.....then buy in regularly during the Fall......and repeat. The notion is that you will make more return on your investing than if you just regularly invested steadily all year. And apparently, it's actually very steady principle that's been around for a long, long time.

With my ETF's, Mutual Funds, etc, I've always just regularly bought in every time my paycheck came in. I guess I should not buy as much during the Summer......




https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

Never put much stock into that. lol

 

[Lamar Card]

Agreed. Buying with significant margins of safeties have made me a ton of money........and on rare occasion saved me from losing more than I could've.

What is your ideal significant margin of safety? How do you calculate the intrinsic value of a stock?

 

[Juvellino]

I just opened a Roth IRA. I contributed the full 2019 amount. Would you guys leave it as money market for the time being while the market is so volatile or invest in index funds right away?

 

[BlueRaider22]

I just opened a Roth IRA. I contributed the full 2019 amount. Would you guys leave it as money market for the time being while the market is so volatile or invest in index funds right away?

Me? I'd wait. Within the next 6 wks companies will start to report their earnings from their 2nd quarter. There will be some companies like Kroger, Amazon, etc that will report great earnings.......but there will be a lot of companies that will report massive losses. This "might" cause a drop in the market. If you start seeing reports in the news of the market crashing.........then buy away......buy, buy, buy.

If the market stays up, then buy in around Sept/October. Then once you buy in, contribute steadily and regularly for the rest of your life.

In the meantime, I'd contribute like crazy to build that money up before you buy in.


But this is just me.......and I am certainly NOT an investing guru.

 

[Get Bucket$]

But this is just me.......and I am certainly NOT an investing guru

* I would also add the disclaimer no one is capable of timing the market successfully long term.

 

[BlueRaider22]

* I would also add the disclaimer no one is capable of timing the market successfully long term.

Agree 100%. Whenever there is a crash/dip/correction, I just hope to buy in somewhere when it goes down. You can be ready with free cash whenever one comes.........and you can recognize when they occur.........but finding the exact bottom is pure luck. Just buy the dips and hold forever.

By far, the best strategy is to regularly/steadily buy and hold throughout your entire life.

 

[lz]

Lots of variables including age and risk tolerance must be considered. I’m normally not a momentum buyer but am this month, then will SELL as August and historically the worst investing month of September get closer. Not sure when I’ll buy or what after that with the election coming soon afterwards. I’m in retirement, still bold somewhat but can’t afford to be foolish nor think long, long term like many of you.

 

[jameslee32]

I just opened a Roth IRA. I contributed the full 2019 amount. Would you guys leave it as money market for the time being while the market is so volatile or invest in index funds right away?

Buy growth on the dips assuming you have decades to invest. Reinvest dividends if any.

 

[AustinTXCat]

Depending on how things are shaping out I’ll consider holding after it hits $25 so I can profit. Hopefully it hits $25 soon because that would be a good problem to have haha.

Yes, for now. It's big but not safe at 8.7%. Idk if merger rumors with GS changes that or not.

WFC cuts quarterly dividend from 0.52 to 0.10 per share. I might go back in now.

 

[lz]

I bought HBI, not only did Cramer brag about their popular masks this AM, but I realized the only colored tee shirt in my closet that has retained its looks and shape the last few years has been the one I bought from Hanes, bought 6 more.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Slightly OT and I may have asked this in the past: But how does everyone here invest for mid-term goals? As in, not for retirement, and not day-trading but maybe for something 3, 5, or 10 years down the road?

Savings bank rates took a dive.. Ally was over 2% I believe and I was kind of OK with using that to grow some money (yes, I know that doesn't beat inflation). But with those cut almost in half, I'm back to thinking that extra savings need to go into something else.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Slightly OT and I may have asked this in the past: But how does everyone here invest for mid-term goals? As in, not for retirement, and not day-trading but maybe for something 3, 5, or 10 years down the road?

Savings bank rates took a dive.. Ally was over 2% I believe and I was kind of OK with using that to grow some money (yes, I know that doesn't beat inflation). But with those cut almost in half, I'm back to thinking that extra savings need to go into something else.

I'm a value investor which means that I do make mid-term sells. It's gotta be a good business though. I go in with the mindset to keep them forever though. For example,

-Oil - XOM and RDSA are good businesses who have take a beating recently. Both can potentially nearly double your money within the next 1-3 years. These are businesses that I can imagine selling off for a profit or just holding forever. The dividends are usually a nice bonus.

-Airlines - I think Delta and Southwest are the best businesses here. I think these will take 2-4 years before they're back to where they were, but the potential is there to double or perhaps triple your money. Once again, I could sell off......or just keep them forever.

-Cruiselines - Carnival and Royal Car. Potential is here to triple or quadruple your money......probably within the next 4-5 years. But this is risky compared to the others.

 

[AustinTXCat]

I bought HBI, not only did Cramer brag about their popular masks this AM, but I realized the only colored tee shirt in my closet that has retained its looks and shape the last few years has been the one I bought from Hanes, bought 6 more.

<- - - - Purchased HBI on 03/30 at $7.80. Enjoying the dividend.

Hanes socks and underwear are good value. Amazon sells packs of 500 Hanes masks for $500 if you have a business account.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm a value investor which means that I do make mid-term sells. It's gotta be a good business though. I go in with the mindset to keep them forever though. For example,

-Oil - XOM and RDSA are good businesses who have take a beating recently. Both can potentially nearly double your money within the next 1-3 years. These are businesses that I can imagine selling off for a profit or just holding forever. The dividends are usually a nice bonus.

-Airlines - I think Delta and Southwest are the best businesses here. I think these will take 2-4 years before they're back to where they were, but the potential is there to double or perhaps triple your money. Once again, I could sell off......or just keep them forever.

-Cruiselines - Carnival and Royal Car. Potential is here to triple or quadruple your money......probably within the next 4-5 years. But this is risky compared to the others.

Nice. So in theory, you could invest in these and maybe sell off after a few years. I can't see myself ever getting TOO into trading, such as deep diving into moving averages, rations, etc. And because of that, I still see my best option is to continue acquiring rental properties.

I'd like to invest some rainy day money for a few years and then pull it out when I find a duplex where the numbers work out. After having several of these, I can utilize the passive income for years to come, or offload ones that aren't working for me. That's the plan at least.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Nice. So in theory, you could invest in these and maybe sell off after a few years. I can't see myself ever getting TOO into trading, such as deep diving into moving averages, rations, etc. And because of that, I still see my best option is to continue acquiring rental properties.

I'd like to invest some rainy day money for a few years and then pull it out when I find a duplex where the numbers work out. After having several of these, I can utilize the passive income for years to come, or offload ones that aren't working for me. That's the plan at least.

You don't have to watch stocks like crazy......but you have to watch them. Me, I do enough research to find really good, sound companies, then add them to my watch list........then I just monitor my watch list. If a company goes on sale, I learn why......then decide if I want to buy in at a discount. We call the discount a "margin of safety."

For example, take Southwest Airlines. Very well run company. Huge business. Lots of free cash flow. Low debt to income ratio. Lots of cash on hand for emergencies. Good moat.....meaning that it's in a stable business and people generally have a good opinion of the company. Southwest is very, very likely to make it through this crisis with less impacted than many other airlines. Therefore it's actually very likely that the stock price will climb at some point. Thus, it's relatively low risk to buy at the current prices.

Now, here's the thing. There's a saying, "If you aren't prepared to hold on to business for 10 yrs, you have no business holding it for 10 minutes." If you buy Southwest, go into it with the mindset that you will hold it for a very, very, very long time. If you buy in and it takes you 10 yrs to double the stock price......great, you've doubled your money and earned an average of about 10% per year. But, if the price doubles in 5 yrs, you've averaged 20% per year. At that point, you can sell or just keep it forever as you originally planned.

This is called value investing. It's a lower risk, high reward strategy......but you have to put in some time to monitor your watch list. It doesn't take a lot of knowledge or time, but it does take some. However, if you are not able to devote some time to watch things you're better off going with a good S&P500 fund like VOO or IVV........

 

[gobigblue812]

WFC cuts quarterly dividend from 0.52 to 0.10 per share. I might go back in now.

I was hoping for at least 0.20. Ugh...

 

[AustinTXCat]

I just opened a Roth IRA. I contributed the full 2019 amount. Would you guys leave it as money market for the time being while the market is so volatile or invest in index funds right away?

Dollar cost averaging sort of mitigates some risk. Contribute the same amount to the index funds from money market over a time period, say 6-12 months.

 

[BlueRaider22]

.

Just to follow up on my previous post. Although you really prize buying something with a nice "margin of safety" it DOES NOT mean that you don't buy unless it's on sale.

"It is better to buy a great business at a fair price, than a fair business at a great price."

For example, Microsoft and Apple are two stellar businesses that will make you a ton of money if you keep them long term.......however, they rarely drop in price. However, "if" you think the stock price is fair it would be better to buy them than it would be to buy a crap business who's on a big sale.


The main issue becomes, "How to you determine what is a fair stock price? How to tell if it's over or under valued?"

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You don't have to watch stocks like crazy......but you have to watch them. Me, I do enough research to find really good, sound companies, then add them to my watch list........then I just monitor my watch list. If a company goes on sale, I learn why......then decide if I want to buy in at a discount. We call the discount a "margin of safety."

For example, take Southwest Airlines. Very well run company. Huge business. Lots of free cash flow. Low debt to income ratio. Lots of cash on hand for emergencies. Good moat.....meaning that it's in a stable business and people generally have a good opinion of the company. Southwest is very, very likely to make it through this crisis with less impacted than many other airlines. Therefore it's actually very likely that the stock price will climb at some point. Thus, it's relatively low risk to buy at the current prices.

Now, here's the thing. There's a saying, "If you aren't prepared to hold on to business for 10 yrs, you have no business holding it for 10 minutes." If you buy Southwest, go into it with the mindset that you will hold it for a very, very, very long time. If you buy in and it takes you 10 yrs to double the stock price......great, you've doubled your money and earned an average of about 10% per year. But, if the price doubles in 5 yrs, you've averaged 20% per year. At that point, you can sell or just keep it forever as you originally planned.

This is called value investing. It's a lower risk, high reward strategy......but you have to put in some time to monitor your watch list. It doesn't take a lot of knowledge or time, but it does take some. However, if you are not able to devote some time to watch things you're better off going with a good S&P500 fund like VOO or IVV........

Good stuff again. That's kind of what I've done with a few purchases (AMD and XOM).. I look at the companies, their leadership, past performance, and then try and get some different opinions. I try and read on new terms and theories. Wasn't that long ago I had to google what being "long" was on a stock. Went through some dividend videos the other day.

I guess Im curious if there's a middle grown between retirement investing and day trading. But this is good.. buy some stock but be prepared to hole it for a while.. at least a few years until industries make a come back. I'll probably just keep nibbling little by little.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Actually, follow up question: What do you use to monitor your stocks? I've always liked Personal Capital.. But it doesn't seem to be a great tool for an actual stock's performance I'm finding out.

I enjoy Seeking Alpha (although it can be wordy and dense), Yahoo Finance (go figure) and have a subscription to Kiplingers/Money just for general personal finance.

 

[Atrain7732]

Good info here I have learned a good amount as a novice who was looking to invest in the market.

I have the simple IRA, Betterment & Acorns savings accounts, but I wanted to do some direct stock investing as well. Opened Robinhood account last week and made an initial $5k deposit. Invested it as follows:

LUV—$1600
Microsoft—$1k
Apple—$1k
Disney—$1200

I am very interested in LUV, and even more so after reading several on here who are very high on them, and I may never some additional funds in that company.

I do have a question tho—my foray into saving/investing has been kinda building up over time, hence the mish mash of different accounts. Should I consolidate all of my Acorns & Betterment funds into one account? I know long term Acorns isn’t best for fees but I like their round up and I do auto drafts into both accounts from my checking and savings accounts. Just curious if I would be better served consolidating these into one or even a separate investing account.

thanks

 

[lz]

Actually, follow up question: What do you use to monitor your stocks? I've always liked Personal Capital.. But it doesn't seem to be a great tool for an actual stock's performance I'm finding out.

I enjoy Seeking Alpha (although it can be wordy and dense), Yahoo Finance (go figure) and have a subscription to Kiplingers/Money just for general personal finance.

Best I’ve found is at My Yahoo, have my wife and my portfolios plus a couple of watchlists of varying looks, set up the columns you prefer.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Good info here I have learned a good amount as a novice who was looking to invest in the market.

I have the simple IRA, Betterment & Acorns savings accounts, but I wanted to do some direct stock investing as well. Opened Robinhood account last week and made an initial $5k deposit. Invested it as follows:

LUV—$1600
Microsoft—$1k
Apple—$1k
Disney—$1200

I am very interested in LUV, and even more so after reading several on here who are very high on them, and I may never some additional funds in that company.

I do have a question tho—my foray into saving/investing has been kinda building up over time, hence the mish mash of different accounts. Should I consolidate all of my Acorns & Betterment funds into one account? I know long term Acorns isn’t best for fees but I like their round up and I do auto drafts into both accounts from my checking and savings accounts. Just curious if I would be better served consolidating these into one or even a separate investing account.

thanks

Purely from a Personal Finance side, I still think the online bank accounts are worth it for an emergency fund and quick access. You can still find ones that are offering 1.25 to 1.5% interest. Sure, that's only $15/month for every $1,000 in there.. but it's much better than your Bank Of America type places. And if you're like me, saving for more property, you start to get into the $1-200/month and beyond.

 

[lz]

Good stuff again. That's kind of what I've done with a few purchases (AMD and XOM).. I look at the companies, their leadership, past performance, and then try and get some different opinions. I try and read on new terms and theories. Wasn't that long ago I had to google what being "long" was on a stock. Went through some dividend videos the other day.

I guess Im curious if there's a middle grown between retirement investing and day trading. But this is good.. buy some stock but be prepared to hole it for a while.. at least a few years until industries make a come back. I'll probably just keep nibbling little by little.

Very good, the key is figuring yourself as an investor, takes time to get the full look, you already are thinking in between two extremes, nothing wrong with occasionally getting off the track, IMO, keeps investing life more interesting!