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Stock Advice Thread

My highlight today was a great early morning eps report by NSP. The cloud software stocks are red hot stocks and greatly useful companies, but I won’t jump in with both feet because like most investors, I anticipate another correction sometime in 2019, high PE stocks usually hit the hardest!
 
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BlueRaider22 said:
https://www.thestreet.com/investing...ilray-canopy-growth-report-this-week-14861607


“13 cents a share”
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Ok, the term for that is called a net loss of 13 cents a share (rather than calling it a drop). Blue, each quarter can be very different for companies, especially new ones like CGC, maybe more costs for growing plants that time of year? Unfortunately, it’s not easy to obtain details about why there’s a loss expected for that quarter unless you use a pay service.
 
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lz said:
Ok, the term for that is called a net loss of 13 cents a share (rather than calling it a drop). Blue, each quarter can be very different for companies, especially new ones like CGC, maybe more costs for growing plants that time of year? Unfortunately, it’s not easy to obtain details about why there’s a loss expected for that quarter unless you use a pay service.
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Good to know.

So, “a drop” usually is reference of percentage? So instead of saying “$0.13 drop”.....I should’ve said a “0.3% drop”......or, of course, “loss of $0.13 per share?”
 
It will be worse than .13 a share........as a matter of fact they are only stating it that way now because the dollar figure loss would scare investors and they would all cash in as they are doing anyway.

That stock will drop back $35 a share soon and I’ll borrow from my 401K to buy back in in order to ride it all the way into the 50’s again!
 
BlueRaider22 said:
Good to know.

So, “a drop” usually is reference of percentage? So instead of saying “$0.13 drop”.....I should’ve said a “0.3% drop”......or, of course, “loss of $0.13 per share?”
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Yes, analysts estimate a 13 cent loss per share for the quarter. Funny thing is, a .12 loss means an eps beat! Yahoo! But, I’m with krazy, let’s accumulate some more, steady she goes, though I hate to see anybody borrow from a 401K.:grimace: Ballsy!
 
Borrow from a 401K that lost last quarter? Pay myself in interest, limit my loss, and watch this stock hit a new peak? Then pay off the loan when I cash out again........

Yea seems to make sense to me but we’ll see.
 
krazykats said:
Borrow from a 401K that lost last quarter? Pay myself in interest, limit my loss, and watch this stock hit a new peak? Then pay off the loan when I cash out again........

Yea seems to make sense to me but we’ll see.
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Bet that 401K is making money this quarter! None of my business, though, carry on, this thread should be to bring ideas, not argue.
 
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Not arguing, and I haven’t checked honestly. Still I think a one stock buy and get a 33% return is better than my 401K will produce.

I get it though, and I’d rather tie my loose money into it but it’s al tied up right now and I won’t see it back in my pocket for 4 months.

If CGC hits $35 again I’ll do whatever it takes to buy in and get that hit again. The reason I’d do the 401K is the amount it would allow me to buy.
 
Canopy Growth Corporation CGC is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Feb 14, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s loss per share of 76 cents was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 13 cents.


So, last quarter a $0.13 loss in share price ended up being $0.76/share. So, y'all sound right that there will likely be a significant reduction in price in a few days.
 
BlueRaider22 said:
Canopy Growth Corporation CGC is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Feb 14, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s loss per share of 76 cents was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 13 cents.


So, last quarter a $0.13 loss in share price ended up being $0.76/share. So, y'all sound right that there will likely be a significant reduction in price in a few days.
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No telling, not a normal stock!
 
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Everybody making money but me the last two days, my wife’s Fang stocks crushing my software hot ones!
 
Just checked and yes my 401K is operating +6% so far this quarter.

However, half my balance can be borrowed, and at that valuation at a skeptical $35 a share price I can buy roughly 600 shares.

The profit made would outearn my 401K in a time frame that I could pay the loan off and make more than the 6% return so far this year.

That’s my point........and I can’t buy this within my 401K.
 
krazykats said:
Just checked and yes my 401K is operating +6% so far this quarter.

However, half my balance can be borrowed, and at that valuation at a skeptical $35 a share price I can buy roughly 600 shares.

The profit made would outearn my 401K in a time frame that I could pay the loan off and make more than the 6% return so far this year.

That’s my point........and I can’t buy this within my 401K.
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Or you could lose all that you take out because pot stocks are still risky as spit right now.

Sure, some stock is going to go off but nobody knows which one yet.



Though in your defense, I knew someone that got a credit card at 0% for 12 months......maxed out the $10k on a stock because he couldn't wait and thought that he had to jump on it soon. It worked fairly well and he paid it off before the interest jumped up.
 
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Same deal, and I just don’t see CGC not being one that succeeds. I mean there may be a bigger groups come along, but CGC is out there man and they are way ahead in the game.

The only issue I see for them is if a Marlboro type buys a smaller name and runs with it.
 
krazykats said:
Same deal, and I just don’t see CGC not being one that succeeds. I mean there may be a bigger groups come along, but CGC is out there man and they are way ahead in the game.

The only issue I see for them is if a Marlboro type buys a smaller name and runs with it.
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I read a report recently that said that the biggest investors are watching the industry closely, but they haven't pounced to invest yet. Said, that they are going to use the recent legalized hemp market as a barometer to measure how companies do.

The global estimate of the hemp market size by 2025 is ~$10 billion.
The global estimate of the Mary Jane market size by 2025 is ~$150 billion.

And these speculations were made w/o Mary Jane even being legalized in the US yet......federal or state level.


So, until more countries legalize there's quite a bit of time to accumulate and to watch which companies separate themselves positively or negatively.
 
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You wanna know what it takes to borrow against one's 401k?

giphy.gif



Go and do likewise, gents. The money's out there, you pick it up, it's yours. You don't--I have no sympathy for you.
 
krazykats said:
Just checked and yes my 401K is operating +6% so far this quarter.

However, half my balance can be borrowed, and at that valuation at a skeptical $35 a share price I can buy roughly 600 shares.

The profit made would outearn my 401K in a time frame that I could pay the loan off and make more than the 6% return so far this year.

That’s my point........and I can’t buy this within my 401K.
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I think the main point to be made is borrowing from your 401k interrupts the compounding. Decades of tax-deferred compounding works tremendously in your favor. Loans, high fees and strategies that are much too conservative can result in massive losses over the long term as compared to steady contributions and a company match in low cost index funds for example.

Remember, this account is a long term instrument for the purpose of providing retirement income decades after first opening it. Instant gratification or single-stock risk should not enter the picture in the sense that a 401k tax-deferred account is the wrong source for discretionary money. Iow, speculative investments like pot stocks are not exactly retirement-type securities the way a dividend paying stock or fund is. For these reasons, I would not even consider this strategy to begin with but that's just me.
 
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BlueThruAndThru said:
You wanna know what it takes to borrow against one's 401k?

giphy.gif



Go and do likewise, gents. The money's out there, you pick it up, it's yours. You don't--I have no sympathy for you.
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Exactly, and you lose it, well, it WAS yours.
 
I realize if it happens it’s a risk. It’s not even being considered unless the stock drops to $35.

At that point I’ll evaluate. Regardless I don’t see me losing it all, which means a huge chunk of the loan could be paid off within a day or 2 of selling the stock back.

Ill advised? Hell no one would advise it, I get that, but where the market is now it could easily drop too!

Also this is only considered because I’m young and have a ton(to me) ties up into 2 other projects. One is a house build that I may back out of, and the other is a business venture.
 
I’ll admit it to most anyone, I’m an idiot with a different view. No problem with that.


And I promise I’ve been in WAY worse situations than borrowing from myself to invest because other cash is tied up.

We are along way away from anything I’ve stated being in consideration, yet,

So let’s get back to the people that are good at this posting smart stuff.
 
Today I added a few shares to IRBT, CGC and 3 software stocks-WDAY, VEEV & NOW. I prefer to get these lower, looks like we continue to have a little run with the China talks, budget settlement and majority of eps reports behind us for this quarter.
 
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I intended to sell NWL before COB yesterday, but forgot. Could have earned around 17% total return. Earnings came out this morning and share price declined over 20% today.

Nevertheless, I still believe in the issue.
 
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After a huge spike, sold some RDN for about a 45% gain. Did the same 6 months ago at roughly the same price point. This stock is very sensitive to rising interest rates. Rates should rise again at some point so I hope to be out of the name sometime this year. Will probably increase my bond exposure at the same time.
 
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AustinTXCat said:
I intended to sell NWL before COB yesterday, but forgot. Could have earned around 17% total return. Earnings came out this morning and share price declined over 20% today.

Nevertheless, I still believe in the issue.
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That sucks but maybe now's the time to buy instead.
 
lz said:
I read that CGC has an inventory shortage, stock down the last two days...brings up a dumb question. How do they grow the stuff in Canada with the long winters, or do they have to import most of their weed?
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Greenhouses? The gas in there has to be just awful.
 
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lz said:
Bet you’re right, think they better build more of them!
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CGC has massive, massive amount of growing potential. My guess is that if that have a shortage in product then it means that demand is more than supply......which "should" be a good thing for us investors, yes?
 
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CGC operational capacity is more than the next 3 companies combined. Their ability and space to produce will only come into question once America legalized federally.

Good for TLRY wanting to play, Im sure that will send their stock into the 200 range. I’ve never seen such a sensetive stock in my life.
 
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Was down in Colombia for a bit; while I love the country and visit regularly (girlfriend), it can be frustrating having to deal with WiFI speeds of 10 - 15 mbps when you are used to 50 or even 100 mbps. I missed on several trades that I couldn't act upon as I couldn't get sufficient bandwidth; no big deal in the investment account.

We have it good here in the States.
 
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Today is setting up to be a nice day for those who own TTD, W, STM...... good to be back in the 'ole US of A.[thumb2]

Oh, and KEYS as well.....strong!
 
Random musing........

krazykats: I read your post from more than a week or so ago in re to borrowing from your 401(k) to buy stock. I believe most, if not all, of the responses you received were to say that's a foolhardy idea. I will share this: I've done it, actually twice, for special situations where I felt a company was an extreme "value" play. The two times it did I made a nice lick, but I also sold early on what turned out to be a 30-bagger and a 15-bagger. Having borrowed against my 401(k) and being fully aware that doing so goes against that preached by the starched shirt crowd, I got out way too soon because of being on borrowed money.

Personally, I did it on "value" plays, i.e., good companies beaten down by the market and/or economy down cycle. They were SHOO in the late 1990's to 2000 (founder/SEC violations, etc), and PGTI after the housing bust (window company up the I-75 from here in FL). I personally would not do it to buy a high growth story, only a value play, and with a company I've researched heavily (we're talking SEC filings, notes to financials, executive team, insider activity, industry, actually bought the product and interviewed customers, etc., etc.) I'm not the guy who would tell another man what to do with his money; no risk, no gain.
 
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Would anyone take money from their 401k to kill a debt? Credit card? School loans? Etc?

Especially if you're young enough that you could easily make up the retirement?
 
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