I have not been able to post lately. No one here except my doctor cousin is interested in my medical issues, but it hasn't been a good year. Nothing is more important than health. Anyway, we are getting ready to celebrate Thanksgiving week and I wish all of you and your families excellent holidays. Normally at this time of year, I am making bowl travel plans. This year I am focused on my family and my recovery, which is a good thing.
Today I can comment on the state of our football program. Things are never quite as good as they seem when everything looks great, but also never quite as bad as everything seems when it looks awful. The reason for this is that there is near-parity in the SEC due to all the TV and bowl revenue, and the difference between winning and losing boils down to relatively fleeting factors and morale issues that can completely change in as little as a season or two.
NIL has changed everything. When Mark Stoops says NIL has burned him out, I take him at his word and so should you. I can tell you this much. The hire of Danielle Braswell has been a failure. Management of the college game is changing faster than most institutional bureaucracies can manage and, to put it kindly, Ms. Braswell has not bought the juice, so to speak. Eddie Gran has assumed most of those responsibilities although he is supposed to be a senior advisor for our offense. Stoops, Gran, and Barnhart met earlier this month to discuss sweeping staff changes needed to bring staffing up to the level of dealing seriously with SEC NIL management. We need about 3-4 X the staff that we currently have working this objective and raising money because the original ruling privatizing NIL and separating it from the schools has already devolved under the weight of judiciary and legislative interference. Now it's a jungle out there. Given the circumstances, institutional adaptation is the only course out of this. Stoops understands this and has been trying to adapt. Barnhart also understands it but try managing a $200 million budget with 23 different sports, each with its own teaching, training, nutrition, and marketing staffs. Just for football alone, UK employs more than 60 coaches and staff. Marc Hill has been the Deputy Athletics Director for football. Thus, this is really Hill's problem to solve. But read this link and you can see that Hill, too, has been stretched too thin-
ukathletics com/staff/marc-hill/
Our current football team has as much or more talent than any other team Stoops has had. But there is a deficit of performance by the OTs, and the QB isn't experienced enough to compensate for that. We are fine for now at WR and RB. Jamarion Wilcox is a future star if he stays. But the lack of QB play combined with the adaptation process of our new OC and OL coach have hamstrung our offense. As the season rolled along, injuries brought the coup de grace. Most of the injured players are back now although we don't know how rust and lingering effects of injuries are affecting their play. Absences of D'Eryk Jackson, DJ Waller, and Terhyon Nichols continue to hurt, but that's football. It is a problem everywhere.
I won't be surprised if UK puts up a good fight today in Austin because our defense shouldn't match up badly with the Longhorn offense if Walker and Hairston are near 100%. UK has actually performed well ATS as an underdog. But I don't see how our OTs can block the Longhorns' DL so I don't expect UK to score many points. The over/under on this game is 47 so Vegas is not expecting an offensive explosion. If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would bet the under.
I still believe UK can beat UL in Lexington, so maybe this is a 5-7 team. Stoops has had UL's number, and our schedule has been a lot better than UL's. But, either way, this season has hurt our program. One can now connect the dots and see our football program has been in gradual decline since 2020. This has become particularly apparent since we had to forfeit our entire 2021 season, although other signs have also been apparent. Yet, there has not yet been a recruiting dropoff. During this season, Stoops confessed to being worn down by fundraising and short on time to teach football (which is what he enjoys). We should take him at his word. NIL had something to do with why Coach Saban retired even though his age is a more obvious reason. NIL is a problem for all coaches and programs because the transfer portal gives players a route to leave on impulse. In other words, players hold all the cards and there is always a danger that a program's investment in a player can go up in smoke. So far, this has actually worked in Stoops' favor since inbound talent into our program has been >> than outbound talent with only a few exceptions.
But that may change. If reports can be believed, Deone Walker, Max Hairston, and Dane Key may be NFL bound. If that is true, then Stoops can expect no more than 5 offensive and 4 defensive starters back in 2025. Because of strong recruiting, there is still a lot of young talent on UK's roster. But herein lies a big problem. If some reports are accurate, Stoops is in danger of losing some key pieces through the portal this coming offseason.
So Stoops and Marrow must hold onto our recruiting class. JaKayden Ferguson has already decommitted. So far, there are no specific rumors about other decommits, and Stoops can't afford any. We especially have to hang onto our linemen recruits. Losing any of those guys would just add to the most important elements of overall decline. Plus, Stoops and Marrow still need to add more quality depth to the class. Some of the recruiting conditions are not quite as attractive as they have been in recent years, so our coaches have their work cut out.
The portal is a huge worry. There could be some potentially important portal losses this time. Stoops just can't afford to lose his future foundation. Here are some younger players who must be kept at all costs-
Khamari Anderson
Cutter Boley
Cam Dooley
Tavion Gadson
Hardley Gilmore
Grant Godfrey
Jacob Kauwe
Koby Keenum
Tovani Mizell
Terhyon Nichols
Jason Patterson
Quaysheed Scott
Aba Selm
Steven Soles
Brian Robinson
Smith twins
David Washington
Jamarion Wilcox
Malachi Wood
I'm not saying those are the only important ones. Just the most obvious.
I have been almost an eternal optimist. But our football program is at a tipping point now. Competition in the SEC is more intense than ever, as we will see this afternoon. Our predictable talent losses this offseason are more serious than usual. Although this is a reactionary indicator that can turn on a dime, our fan base is losing confidence. Our head coach has acknowledged burn out.
But Coach Stoops has now made it clear that he is staying, so talk of his departure or firing can and should stop unless something fundamentally changes. Notwithstanding some recent click bait reporting, I believe the coordinators are settled in Lexington for another year or two. Fundamentally, this coaching staff is at least as good (and more experienced) than in recent times when our record was better.
If our team gives a good effort today in Austin, then shows an appropriate amount of pride and effort at home against UL, and then our coaches keep the critical nucleus of our recruiting class together, our program will get into the offseason on a more upbeat note and the opportunity to prevent devastating outbound transfers will be there for our coaches. But if the team lays down and the recruiting class experiences more key decommits, then look out below.
Within the last 24 months, some were beginning to believe we are a football school. Cal's departure and Pope's hiring, so far, have been a big breath of fresh air here to say the least, although it's still a small sample. I haven't given up on Stoops' staff, but the athletics department must devise new ways to cope with the rapidly changing NIL era. This means, among other things, a larger senior staff to deal with fundraising and free up Mark Stoops' time for teaching and coaching. It means the BBN really has to step up now, and I am not talking about attendance or buying t-shirts. Every SEC school has strong attendance. I am talking about participation in 15, and particularly in the most fortunate members of BBN stepping up even more than they already are. The BBN is huge and, contrary to what some may believe, we are not at a numerical or demographic disadvantage. But we have to think like the fan base of an SEC football school thinks. That means we can't throw out the baby with the bathwater every time something doesn't go like we want. All the players and coaches are human, so this is ultimately about perseverance, coping, and getting better. It's a process that never ends, and it can be done here as long as it is a priority. I still believe it is.
Today I can comment on the state of our football program. Things are never quite as good as they seem when everything looks great, but also never quite as bad as everything seems when it looks awful. The reason for this is that there is near-parity in the SEC due to all the TV and bowl revenue, and the difference between winning and losing boils down to relatively fleeting factors and morale issues that can completely change in as little as a season or two.
NIL has changed everything. When Mark Stoops says NIL has burned him out, I take him at his word and so should you. I can tell you this much. The hire of Danielle Braswell has been a failure. Management of the college game is changing faster than most institutional bureaucracies can manage and, to put it kindly, Ms. Braswell has not bought the juice, so to speak. Eddie Gran has assumed most of those responsibilities although he is supposed to be a senior advisor for our offense. Stoops, Gran, and Barnhart met earlier this month to discuss sweeping staff changes needed to bring staffing up to the level of dealing seriously with SEC NIL management. We need about 3-4 X the staff that we currently have working this objective and raising money because the original ruling privatizing NIL and separating it from the schools has already devolved under the weight of judiciary and legislative interference. Now it's a jungle out there. Given the circumstances, institutional adaptation is the only course out of this. Stoops understands this and has been trying to adapt. Barnhart also understands it but try managing a $200 million budget with 23 different sports, each with its own teaching, training, nutrition, and marketing staffs. Just for football alone, UK employs more than 60 coaches and staff. Marc Hill has been the Deputy Athletics Director for football. Thus, this is really Hill's problem to solve. But read this link and you can see that Hill, too, has been stretched too thin-
ukathletics com/staff/marc-hill/
Our current football team has as much or more talent than any other team Stoops has had. But there is a deficit of performance by the OTs, and the QB isn't experienced enough to compensate for that. We are fine for now at WR and RB. Jamarion Wilcox is a future star if he stays. But the lack of QB play combined with the adaptation process of our new OC and OL coach have hamstrung our offense. As the season rolled along, injuries brought the coup de grace. Most of the injured players are back now although we don't know how rust and lingering effects of injuries are affecting their play. Absences of D'Eryk Jackson, DJ Waller, and Terhyon Nichols continue to hurt, but that's football. It is a problem everywhere.
I won't be surprised if UK puts up a good fight today in Austin because our defense shouldn't match up badly with the Longhorn offense if Walker and Hairston are near 100%. UK has actually performed well ATS as an underdog. But I don't see how our OTs can block the Longhorns' DL so I don't expect UK to score many points. The over/under on this game is 47 so Vegas is not expecting an offensive explosion. If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would bet the under.
I still believe UK can beat UL in Lexington, so maybe this is a 5-7 team. Stoops has had UL's number, and our schedule has been a lot better than UL's. But, either way, this season has hurt our program. One can now connect the dots and see our football program has been in gradual decline since 2020. This has become particularly apparent since we had to forfeit our entire 2021 season, although other signs have also been apparent. Yet, there has not yet been a recruiting dropoff. During this season, Stoops confessed to being worn down by fundraising and short on time to teach football (which is what he enjoys). We should take him at his word. NIL had something to do with why Coach Saban retired even though his age is a more obvious reason. NIL is a problem for all coaches and programs because the transfer portal gives players a route to leave on impulse. In other words, players hold all the cards and there is always a danger that a program's investment in a player can go up in smoke. So far, this has actually worked in Stoops' favor since inbound talent into our program has been >> than outbound talent with only a few exceptions.
But that may change. If reports can be believed, Deone Walker, Max Hairston, and Dane Key may be NFL bound. If that is true, then Stoops can expect no more than 5 offensive and 4 defensive starters back in 2025. Because of strong recruiting, there is still a lot of young talent on UK's roster. But herein lies a big problem. If some reports are accurate, Stoops is in danger of losing some key pieces through the portal this coming offseason.
So Stoops and Marrow must hold onto our recruiting class. JaKayden Ferguson has already decommitted. So far, there are no specific rumors about other decommits, and Stoops can't afford any. We especially have to hang onto our linemen recruits. Losing any of those guys would just add to the most important elements of overall decline. Plus, Stoops and Marrow still need to add more quality depth to the class. Some of the recruiting conditions are not quite as attractive as they have been in recent years, so our coaches have their work cut out.
The portal is a huge worry. There could be some potentially important portal losses this time. Stoops just can't afford to lose his future foundation. Here are some younger players who must be kept at all costs-
Khamari Anderson
Cutter Boley
Cam Dooley
Tavion Gadson
Hardley Gilmore
Grant Godfrey
Jacob Kauwe
Koby Keenum
Tovani Mizell
Terhyon Nichols
Jason Patterson
Quaysheed Scott
Aba Selm
Steven Soles
Brian Robinson
Smith twins
David Washington
Jamarion Wilcox
Malachi Wood
I'm not saying those are the only important ones. Just the most obvious.
I have been almost an eternal optimist. But our football program is at a tipping point now. Competition in the SEC is more intense than ever, as we will see this afternoon. Our predictable talent losses this offseason are more serious than usual. Although this is a reactionary indicator that can turn on a dime, our fan base is losing confidence. Our head coach has acknowledged burn out.
But Coach Stoops has now made it clear that he is staying, so talk of his departure or firing can and should stop unless something fundamentally changes. Notwithstanding some recent click bait reporting, I believe the coordinators are settled in Lexington for another year or two. Fundamentally, this coaching staff is at least as good (and more experienced) than in recent times when our record was better.
If our team gives a good effort today in Austin, then shows an appropriate amount of pride and effort at home against UL, and then our coaches keep the critical nucleus of our recruiting class together, our program will get into the offseason on a more upbeat note and the opportunity to prevent devastating outbound transfers will be there for our coaches. But if the team lays down and the recruiting class experiences more key decommits, then look out below.
Within the last 24 months, some were beginning to believe we are a football school. Cal's departure and Pope's hiring, so far, have been a big breath of fresh air here to say the least, although it's still a small sample. I haven't given up on Stoops' staff, but the athletics department must devise new ways to cope with the rapidly changing NIL era. This means, among other things, a larger senior staff to deal with fundraising and free up Mark Stoops' time for teaching and coaching. It means the BBN really has to step up now, and I am not talking about attendance or buying t-shirts. Every SEC school has strong attendance. I am talking about participation in 15, and particularly in the most fortunate members of BBN stepping up even more than they already are. The BBN is huge and, contrary to what some may believe, we are not at a numerical or demographic disadvantage. But we have to think like the fan base of an SEC football school thinks. That means we can't throw out the baby with the bathwater every time something doesn't go like we want. All the players and coaches are human, so this is ultimately about perseverance, coping, and getting better. It's a process that never ends, and it can be done here as long as it is a priority. I still believe it is.
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