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So Much Like 2010-2011 it's Scary

I color outside the lines, bruh.

FTR, I welcome all personal attacks. That's how I know we're really talking. So, feel free to call me whatever you want. Goes for everyone.


I never knew this about you brother.... lol

We've been doing this a long time man, we have agreed much more than not, ...im glad you are always real pal, never change.
 
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I have a theory on NCAA Tournament basketball. I haven't done the research. It's all in my head based upon watching games. I could be way off. I think this day and age, the most important trait a team can have is the ability to get dribble penetration into the lane on offense and the ability to contain dribble penetration on defense.

That and Calipari is where my optimism lies. Murray is suspect, but I love Ulis, Briscoe and a healthy Hawkins pressuring a D on offense and containing guards on D.
 
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I have a theory on NCAA Tournament basketball. I haven't done the research. It's all in my head based upon watching games. I could be way off. I think this day and age, the most important trait a team can have is the ability to get dribble penetration into the lane on offense and the ability to contain dribble penetration on defense.


2010 Duke is the outlier - shocker. Since then:
Kemba
Teague + MKG
Siva
Shabazz vs. the Twins
Tyus Jones

You're absolutely right. Gonna have to make FTs, though.
 
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2010-2011 record through 22 games: 16-6
2015-2016 record through 22 games: 16-6

2010-2011 largest margin of loss: 17 (granted this was to eventual National Champs UCONN)
2015-2016 largest margin of loss: 18 (LSU)

2010-2011 conference road record: 2-6
2015-2016 conference road record: 2-? (I'm going to guess it will be close to 3-6, or 4-5)

----I would argue our two wins (@Bama, @Ark) on the road so far this season are better road wins than that year (USCjr 14-16 final record, UT 18-13 final record)

2010-2011: Undefeated at Rupp
2015-2016: Undefeated so far

----Both teams have had a couple of big margin of victory wins at home in conference



LINEUP 2010-2011:
Senior Josh Harrelson (6'10 275)
Junior DeAndre Liggins (6'6 215)
Junior Darius Miller (6'7 235)
Freshman Brandon Knight (6'3 195)

Rotated Starting Lineup:
Freshman Doron Lamb (6'4 210)
Freshman Terrance Jones (6'9 252)

If you look at the minutes Cal played 6 men.

LINEUP 2015-2016

Isaiah Briscoe (6'3 202)
Tyler Ulis (5'9 160)
Alex Poythress (6'8 230)
Jamal Murray (6'4 207)
Derek Willis (6'9 220)

Skal Labissiere (6'10 225)
Marcus Lee (6'9 224)
Dominique Hawkins

Comparing the two teams:

Harrelson v. *Lee (Push) Their stats are almost identical across the board
Jones v. Poythress (Advantage Jones) Though their offensive stats are very similar, defense of Jones >
Knight v. Ulis (Advantage Ulis in everything except 3pt. % and height)
Liggins v. Briscoe (Advantage Liggins)
Miller v. Murray (Advantage Miller)

Lamb v. Murray (Advantage Lamb due to higher 3pt. %)

2010-2011 Bench: Lamb/Jones
2015-2016 Bench: *Willis/Labissiere/Hawkins

*I realize Willis is a starter now, but majority of the season, and for match-up purposes I switched him and Lee for a better comparison.


These teams match-up very evenly with each other. Defensively I would give the nod to 2015-2016 with Ulis, Briscoe, Poythress, Lee (out of foul trouble), Hawkins

2010-2011 had Liggins, Jones, and Harrelson (didn't try to do too much).

Offensively the 2010-2011 team was superior at every spot from 3pt.%, and IMO is a major factor, if not THE major factor, in college basketball.


Right now if I were picking between the two teams, as of February 3rd, I would take 2015-2016. If we had won the game AT Kansas we would be talking Final Four run. It was a last second miscue by Ulis, a few less fouls, or a 3 at all in the 2nd half from a win.

Last night's game is a conundrum, and I am not going to allow it to carry much weight.

2013-2014 had the terrible loss against South Carolina and we still made a Championship run. I like this team far more than that team.

Just understand that this team is more comparable to the 2010-2011 team than the 2012-13, 2013-14 teams, in a season that is far more wide open than those two were.
Each season is different, because the players are different and the nature of the competition changes. The fact that more than 1 Calipari team has been 16-6 does not mean that our current team will follow the February/March script followed by our 2010-11 team. If you want to talk about 1 thing that will dictate terms for this team for the next 2 months, it would be that we have already lost 5 games to unranked opponents. Nothing that happens in February can change that, and we still have other tough road games to play. It means that Kentucky will not get a very good NCAAT seed in March. Although past teams have made surprising NCAAT runs coming out of lower seeds, they had more scoring threats than this team has. Our guards are really good, but this team isn't going anywhere in March unless another capable low post player appears out of nowhere.
 
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Harrelson shot 61%
Lee shoots 65%

Harrelson was better from the free throw line but neither of them shoot enough for it to matter.

Lee rebounds better than Harrelson, but not by much

Lee blocks significantly better than Harrelson
Are you counting Harrelsons statics for the whole year ? Cause I'm thinking he barely got to play the first 10 games or so ? And surely you realize Lee shoots 65% because another player has made a play to draw his man and throw him a bunny . Not even mentioning Harrelsons improved as the went on and Lee is probably worse than the day he sat foot on campus . And if Poythress had to match up with jones , by halftime he would be at the end of the bench , curled up in the fetal position , sucking on his thumb and crying for mama !
 
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Assuming comparable playing time - Lee is probably the worst F/C we have had since Cal arrived.


2009-2010- Cousins, Patterson
2010-2011- Harrelson, Jones
2011-2012- Davis, Jones (2)
2012-2013- WCS, Noel
2013-2014- WCS (2), Dakari, Julius Randle
2014-2015- WCS, KAT, Dakari

LOTTERY

Off the top of my head you would be right in saying he may be the worst F/C we have had since Cal, but there has also been a lottery pick on every team except one. The closest resemblance would be Harrelson, and I would take Marcus Lee over Harrelson.

Harrelson is the only one of those listed I would take Marcus Lee over.

That's my opinion.
 
I would take Marcus Lee over Harrelson.

I just don't know how anyone who knows basketball and watched 2011 season and this one would think this. You're entitled to your opinion, but I must say it baffles me if you were actually watching the same games as me.
 
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2010-2011 record through 22 games: 16-6
2015-2016 record through 22 games: 16-6

2010-2011 largest margin of loss: 17 (granted this was to eventual National Champs UCONN)
2015-2016 largest margin of loss: 18 (LSU)

2010-2011 conference road record: 2-6
2015-2016 conference road record: 2-? (I'm going to guess it will be close to 3-6, or 4-5)

----I would argue our two wins (@Bama, @Ark) on the road so far this season are better road wins than that year (USCjr 14-16 final record, UT 18-13 final record)

2010-2011: Undefeated at Rupp
2015-2016: Undefeated so far

----Both teams have had a couple of big margin of victory wins at home in conference



LINEUP 2010-2011:
Senior Josh Harrelson (6'10 275)
Junior DeAndre Liggins (6'6 215)
Junior Darius Miller (6'7 235)
Freshman Brandon Knight (6'3 195)

Rotated Starting Lineup:
Freshman Doron Lamb (6'4 210)
Freshman Terrance Jones (6'9 252)

If you look at the minutes Cal played 6 men.

LINEUP 2015-2016

Isaiah Briscoe (6'3 202)
Tyler Ulis (5'9 160)
Alex Poythress (6'8 230)
Jamal Murray (6'4 207)
Derek Willis (6'9 220)

Skal Labissiere (6'10 225)
Marcus Lee (6'9 224)
Dominique Hawkins

Comparing the two teams:

Harrelson v. *Lee (Push) Their stats are almost identical across the board
Jones v. Poythress (Advantage Jones) Though their offensive stats are very similar, defense of Jones >
Knight v. Ulis (Advantage Ulis in everything except 3pt. % and height)
Liggins v. Briscoe (Advantage Liggins)
Miller v. Murray (Advantage Miller)

Lamb v. Murray (Advantage Lamb due to higher 3pt. %)

2010-2011 Bench: Lamb/Jones
2015-2016 Bench: *Willis/Labissiere/Hawkins

*I realize Willis is a starter now, but majority of the season, and for match-up purposes I switched him and Lee for a better comparison.


These teams match-up very evenly with each other. Defensively I would give the nod to 2015-2016 with Ulis, Briscoe, Poythress, Lee (out of foul trouble), Hawkins

2010-2011 had Liggins, Jones, and Harrelson (didn't try to do too much).

Offensively the 2010-2011 team was superior at every spot from 3pt.%, and IMO is a major factor, if not THE major factor, in college basketball.


Right now if I were picking between the two teams, as of February 3rd, I would take 2015-2016. If we had won the game AT Kansas we would be talking Final Four run. It was a last second miscue by Ulis, a few less fouls, or a 3 at all in the 2nd half from a win.

Last night's game is a conundrum, and I am not going to allow it to carry much weight.

2013-2014 had the terrible loss against South Carolina and we still made a Championship run. I like this team far more than that team.

Just understand that this team is more comparable to the 2010-2011 team than the 2012-13, 2013-14 teams, in a season that is far more wide open than those two were.
Ya know , you can take statistics and make em say a lot of things . Heres my OPINION . That team had 2 tough physical inside players, guards that could shoot , and maybe the best lock- down defender in college . This team has wimpy , fouling , non - basketball playing inside players and we're ranked something like 312th in three point baskets . Pretty much sums it up .
 
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BTW: The team that beat us in the tournament 2010-2011:

6'1 PG Kemba Walker
6'5 SG Jeremy Lamb
6'9 Alex Oriakhi
6'8 Roscoe Smith
6'10 Tyler Olander

Thinking back, would you take that team to beat the Cats? You wouldn't. I wouldn't take that team to beat this team either.

But it happened.

UCONN hit exactly ONE 3-pointer, had 15 turnovers, only 11 free throws, and still won.

We hit NINE 3-pointers. 10 turnovers. Still lost.

Also, because this board is insanely, unjustifiably in love with Josh Harrelson, he had:

3 FG
4 Rebounds
0 Blocked Shots

The way everyone is responding you would think I was comparing 2015-2016 to the 96 Cats or something.
 
BTW: The team that beat us in the tournament 2010-2011:

6'1 PG Kemba Walker
6'5 SG Jeremy Lamb
6'9 Alex Oriakhi
6'8 Roscoe Smith
6'10 Tyler Olander

Thinking back, would you take that team to beat the Cats? You wouldn't. I wouldn't take that team to beat this team either.

But it happened.

UCONN hit exactly ONE 3-pointer, had 15 turnovers, only 11 free throws, and still won.

We hit NINE 3-pointers. 10 turnovers. Still lost.

The way everyone is responding you would think I was comparing 2015-2016 to the 96 Cats or something.
Yeah I'm thinking it was free throws that killed us that game . One thing that I haven't seen brought up , I don't think there nearly as many good teams this year . We don't have to be as good this year and honestly , if we come to play we can possibly beat anyone . We do need to avoid teams with big physical inside guys though . And we can also lose to almost anyone .
 
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BTW: The team that beat us in the tournament 2010-2011:

6'1 PG Kemba Walker
6'5 SG Jeremy Lamb
6'9 Alex Oriakhi
6'8 Roscoe Smith
6'10 Tyler Olander
Thinking back, would you take that team to beat the Cats? You wouldn't. I wouldn't take that team to beat this team either.
See, now you're just being ridiculous.

Might I remind you that THIS TEAM just lost to a crappy 10-11 UT team that played nobody taller than 6'5" for most the game? As well as a horrible 9-12 Auburn? And got its ass kicked by a terrible OSU team that was like 4-5 at the time and had just lost to the likes UT-Arlington and La Tech? As well as losses to decidedly mediocre UCLA and LSU teams.

We don't just have bad losses this year, we have TERRIBLE losses. Hell, Kansas is the only one of the 6 teams that beat us that is even ranked. Yet, you somehow think this year's team would've been the favorite against that three seed UConn team that had probably the best guard in the country (Kemba Walker), multiple future NBA players (Lamb, Napier, Walker, etc.), that had previously kicked our ass before that season when winning the Maui championship, and had just rolled to the Big East tourney title in a year when the Big East was being hyped as having perhaps the strongest and deepest season any conference had ever had?

Now you're just making yourself look stupid. Shut up.
 
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Yeah I'm thinking it was free throws that killed us that game . One thing that I haven't seen brought up , I don't think there nearly as many good teams this year . We don't have to be as good this year and honestly , if we come to play we can possibly beat anyone . We do need to avoid teams with big physical inside guys though . And we can also lose to almost anyone .

I'd say we'll definitely have to play a team with a physical size advantage inside...

hopefully our guards can make up for it.
 
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[QUOTE="Eight_Banners, [/QUOTE]


Just provide us two things;

Other than Lee shooting 3% points higher than Jorts (because he only shoots bunnies) and the fact he can jump higher, why is he better than Jorts?


What evidence are you using to form the opinion that this team is better than 2011?
 
[QUOTE="Eight_Banners,


Just provide us two things;

Other than Lee shooting 3% points higher than Jorts (because he only shoots bunnies) and the fact he can jump higher, why is he better than Jorts?


What evidence are you using to form the opinion that this team is better than 2011?[/QUOTE]

He blocks shots better, and more often.

What Harrelson gives you offensively doesn't make up for what Lee gives you defensively.


Funny thing is, this thread has turned into a defense of Josh Harrelson v. Marcus Lee, but neither of them would be the deciding factor in a game between these two teams.
 
[QUOTE="Eight_Banners, post: 3577483, member: He blocks shots better, and more often.

What Harrelson gives you offensively doesn't make up for what Lee gives you defensively.
[/QUOTE]



Well you answered one question:

Lee > Jorts because he shoots only bunnies and he blocks shots better.

"What Harrelson gives you offensively doesn't make up for what Lee gives you defensively."

Here is why that statement is so wrong:

The offense in 2011 ran through the pick and roll with Jorts and Knight - very valuable. Jorts lit up UL for 26 points.

Lee cannot stay on the floor due to foul trouble.

Lee blocks 1.7 shots per game... the same as Skal.. which places them 75th in country.

Btw, Josh blocked 1.5 per game.

So 0.2 more blocks per game is better than rebounding, shooting, passing, post defense, being an important part of the offensive scheme and staying on the floor?

That argument is a major loser in my opinion.


Now why is 2016 a better team than 2011?
 
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[laughing]

You can cite as many statistics as you want, but you're simply incorrect. If JH was on this team, he'd barely ever leave the floor precisely because he's a superior rebounder to every single player we have on the roster this season.

Numbers never tell the entire story. You need to actually watch the games.
 
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No offense OP but it is not at all the same.

And you are the first person I've heard that would take Lee over Jorts. I'm not sure I'd take Lee over Orbizut, let alone Jorts
 
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[laughing]

You can cite as many statistics as you want, but you're simply incorrect. If JH was on this team, he'd barely ever leave the floor precisely because he's a superior rebounder to every single player we have on the roster this season.

Numbers never tell the entire story. You need to actually watch the games.


Harrelson Rebound every 3.2 minutes
Lee Rebound every 3.3 minutes
Poythress Rebound every 3.65 minutes
Willis Rebound every 4.3 minutes

Those are comparable numbers.

You cannot look at a person's per game average when comparing these two teams, because one team played 6 players...

while this year's team plays as many as 8/9 per game.
 
Lee isn't as bad as he has looked in this slump/funk whatever, but he's going to have to get his ish together to be close to as good as Harrellson was in March 2011. That guy played the best big man in the country to draw.

I'm not giving up on Lee, but he has a ways to go to become what Harrellson became.
 
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Go back and look at some of these performances in 2011 and 2014 if you want some optimism:

2011

2014
 
You really used one game (UL) from 2010-11, and a saving the ball from out-of-bounds to support Harrelson over Lee?

Lee shoots a higher FG%...and before you chalk it up to lobs he's on a relatively same trajectory in FG taken as Harrelson.

http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/Statistics/Players/Harrellson_Josh.html
http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/Statistics/Players/Lee_Marcus.html

Their stats are almost identical if you break them down minute by minute.

Maybe Harrelson has the intangibles, but I would take Lee at this exact point in the season over Harrelson.


I think too many people love on Josh Harrelson for a couple of moments in 2010-2011 and the fact that that team made a Final Four run. I am a fan of almost every player that puts on the UK uniform, but lets not let moments cloud the entire body of work.

They are relatively the same statistically, but Harrelson was on a team that had a better story.

74% of Marcus Lee's FGAs have come at the rim. This by far the highest percentage of any of our players over the past five years, and a full 14 percentage points above the second highest (Nerlens Noel at 60%).

Lee makes roughly 80% of his attempts at the rim. However, his percentage on 2pt shots away from the rim plummets to 22%. This is the largest discrepancy of any of our players the past five years. Point being, Lee is entirely one dimensional offensively and therefore makes it far easier to defend against us.

Further, the fact that Harrleson and Lee had similar offensive rebounding percentages of 15% is remarkable considering how frequently Harrelson was pulled away from the rim in the pick and roll. Harrison also committed only 3.4 fouls per 40 minutes compared to Lee's whopping 6.2.

People would be shocked how much better this team would look if you replaced Lee with Harrelson.
 
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Harrelson Rebound every 3.2 minutes
Lee Rebound every 3.3 minutes
Poythress Rebound every 3.65 minutes
Willis Rebound every 4.3 minutes

Those are comparable numbers.

You cannot look at a person's per game average when comparing these two teams, because one team played 6 players...

while this year's team plays as many as 8/9 per game.


You cannot be more wrong about Lee> Jorts and everyone is providing concrete evidence.


Now to your other point:


WHY DO YOU THINK THE 2016 TEAM IS BETTER THAN 2011?

Do you have any evidence?

Why wont you answer this question?
 
You cannot be more wrong about Lee> Jorts and everyone is providing concrete evidence.


Now to your other point:


WHY DO YOU THINK THE 2016 TEAM IS BETTER THAN 2011?

Do you have any evidence?

Why wont you answer this question?

If you go back to my original post, I was not arguing the 2016 is better than the 2011 team...

If I were asked to take one of the two teams on February 3rd it would be this team.

That's all.
 
i keep thinkin that ole johnny is gonna turn his britches about face, but he just continues to drain the cough syrup down pity pit... ain't got enough corn to supply the fleet i suppose!
 
74% of Marcus Lee's FGAs have come at the rim. This by far the highest percentage of any of our players over the past five years, and a full 14 percentage points above the second highest (Nerlens Noel at 60%).

Lee makes roughly 80% of his attempts at the rim. However, his percentage on 2pt shots away from the rim plummets to 22%. This is the largest discrepancy of any of our players the past five years. Point being, Lee is entirely one dimensional offensively and therefore makes it far easier to defend against us.

Further, the fact that Harrleson and Lee had similar offensive rebounding percentages of 15% is remarkable considering how frequently Harrelson was pulled away from the rim in the pick and roll. Harrison also committed only 3.4 fouls per 40 minutes compared to Lee's whopping 6.2.

People would be shocked how much better this team would look if you replaced Lee with Harrelson.

This is ALL exactly right. A damn good post.

Lee's inability to score more than two feet from the hoop allows defenders to cheat, because they know they don't have to come outside to guard him. That destroys our spacing, clogs up our driving lanes, makes it easier to double team our scorers, and just in general makes it harder for Lee's teammates to get open shots. Conversely, Harrellson DID have the ability to pull defenders away from the rim, which made things easier for his teammates on offense.

These are the things about how the sport of basketball works that someone like Eight Banners--who apparently only looks at stats instead of actually watching games--doesn't seem to understand.
 
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If you go back to my original post, I was not arguing the 2016 is better than the 2011 team...

If I were asked to take one of the two teams on February 3rd it would be this team.

That's all.



Fair enough.

But why?


Replacing Lamb or Miller with Murray or Briscoe makes us better.

Replacing Jorts or Jones with any of Poy, Lee, or Skal makes us better?

Much less the entire team...


Why is this your position?
 
Lee is terrible defensive player. Averaging higher block rate doesn't = better defense.

Anthony Davis's block rate was amazing, not just because it was so high. It's because his rate of success were damn near 100%. Lee swats at every ball he thinks he can get, except he misses 90% of the time and just fouls. Which allows for offensive put backs, FT bonuses, and etc.

Jort did play terrible in final four game. That's why we lost. But prior to that in the tournament he was averaging just tad bit under 15 points per game and 9 rebounds per game. Josh Harrelson is the REASON why we made it to final four. His field goal % during those game were above 70%. He took advantage of missed shots by our other player, got physical rebounds, and played solid D.

The gap between Jorts and Lee is so damn huge, i'm not sure why we are even arguing about it.
 
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74% of Marcus Lee's FGAs have come at the rim. This by far the highest percentage of any of our players over the past five years, and a full 14 percentage points above the second highest (Nerlens Noel at 60%).

Lee makes roughly 80% of his attempts at the rim. However, his percentage on 2pt shots away from the rim plummets to 22%. This is the largest discrepancy of any of our players the past five years. Point being, Lee is entirely one dimensional offensively and therefore makes it far easier to defend against us.

Further, the fact that Harrleson and Lee had similar offensive rebounding percentages of 15% is remarkable considering how frequently Harrelson was pulled away from the rim in the pick and roll. Harrison also committed only 3.4 fouls per 40 minutes compared to Lee's whopping 6.2.

People would be shocked how much better this team would look if you replaced Lee with Harrelson.

Where did you get those stats?

Not arguing, just wondering if there was a site out there that breaks it down like that, or if you are doing that on your own.
 
Why would you choose 2016 > 2011 right now?

The same reason NBA Owners would take a chance on Skal at this point...

I think there is more potential in this rotation of players than the 6 players on the 2010-2011 team. Every comment that has been positive within this thread is based on the 20/20 vision that is 2016 and 5 years removed from that team's road woes, and collapse in the Final Four.

Go look at an 8 game stretch for Harrelson mid-year...other than rebounding, what was he doing?

You tell me that everyone who has posted positive things about that 2010-2011 team was as positive on February 4th that year, and I will call you a liar.

A. I have the freedom to be wrong in my opinions

B. We're just talking about Kentucky basketball. It's not a life or death conversation.


If I want Marcus Lee on my team over Josh Harrelson on my hypothetical team I can.

You can tell me that I'm wrong, but it will never be proven, just opinions.
 
Where did you get those stats?

Not arguing, just wondering if there was a site out there that breaks it down like that, or if you are doing that on your own.

Do you really need to see statistical proof to know that Lee gets nearly all his points at the rim and can't score from outside? Goodness gracious, it's not like his post is a revelation, do you not watch these games?
 
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The same reason NBA Owners would take a chance on Skal at this point...

I think there is more potential in this rotation of players than the 6 players on the 2010-2011 team.

A. I have the freedom to be wrong in my opinions

B. We're just talking about Kentucky basketball. It's not a life or death conversation.


If I want Marcus Lee on my team over Josh Harrelson on my hypothetical team I can.

You can tell me that I'm wrong, but it will never be proven, just opinions.



That's perfectly fine.

I can appreciate that this is just your opinion, even though every single bit of evidence proves it wrong.

I was just wanting to see if there was some actual proof as to why.

Once you went into Lee > Jorts because he has 0.2 more blocks and higher FG% with 100% of his makes at the rim, and not much else to offer, I wasnt too confident you had any tangible evidence that 2016 has better potential based upon the individuals.

Doesn't mean this group will not make a run.

We are UK, we have Cal, we have Tyler, we have Murray who can go for 30 any game, we have Alex who just might play well back to back games eventually, we have Willis which has changed our offense.

We have Lee for energy, Skal for jumpers, Dom for defense.

College game is down, so who knows?


With only 9 games left to go I'd sure rather take my chances with the 2011 group than this one, but I cant so Go Cats!
 
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