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So Much Like 2010-2011 it's Scary

Eight_Banners

Blue Chip Prospect
Apr 4, 2012
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2010-2011 record through 22 games: 16-6
2015-2016 record through 22 games: 16-6

2010-2011 largest margin of loss: 17 (granted this was to eventual National Champs UCONN)
2015-2016 largest margin of loss: 18 (LSU)

2010-2011 conference road record: 2-6
2015-2016 conference road record: 2-? (I'm going to guess it will be close to 3-6, or 4-5)

----I would argue our two wins (@Bama, @Ark) on the road so far this season are better road wins than that year (USCjr 14-16 final record, UT 18-13 final record)

2010-2011: Undefeated at Rupp
2015-2016: Undefeated so far

----Both teams have had a couple of big margin of victory wins at home in conference



LINEUP 2010-2011:
Senior Josh Harrelson (6'10 275)
Junior DeAndre Liggins (6'6 215)
Junior Darius Miller (6'7 235)
Freshman Brandon Knight (6'3 195)

Rotated Starting Lineup:
Freshman Doron Lamb (6'4 210)
Freshman Terrance Jones (6'9 252)

If you look at the minutes Cal played 6 men.

LINEUP 2015-2016

Isaiah Briscoe (6'3 202)
Tyler Ulis (5'9 160)
Alex Poythress (6'8 230)
Jamal Murray (6'4 207)
Derek Willis (6'9 220)

Skal Labissiere (6'10 225)
Marcus Lee (6'9 224)
Dominique Hawkins

Comparing the two teams:

Harrelson v. *Lee (Push) Their stats are almost identical across the board
Jones v. Poythress (Advantage Jones) Though their offensive stats are very similar, defense of Jones >
Knight v. Ulis (Advantage Ulis in everything except 3pt. % and height)
Liggins v. Briscoe (Advantage Liggins)
Miller v. Murray (Advantage Miller)

Lamb v. Murray (Advantage Lamb due to higher 3pt. %)

2010-2011 Bench: Lamb/Jones
2015-2016 Bench: *Willis/Labissiere/Hawkins

*I realize Willis is a starter now, but majority of the season, and for match-up purposes I switched him and Lee for a better comparison.


These teams match-up very evenly with each other. Defensively I would give the nod to 2015-2016 with Ulis, Briscoe, Poythress, Lee (out of foul trouble), Hawkins

2010-2011 had Liggins, Jones, and Harrelson (didn't try to do too much).

Offensively the 2010-2011 team was superior at every spot from 3pt.%, and IMO is a major factor, if not THE major factor, in college basketball.


Right now if I were picking between the two teams, as of February 3rd, I would take 2015-2016. If we had won the game AT Kansas we would be talking Final Four run. It was a last second miscue by Ulis, a few less fouls, or a 3 at all in the 2nd half from a win.

Last night's game is a conundrum, and I am not going to allow it to carry much weight.

2013-2014 had the terrible loss against South Carolina and we still made a Championship run. I like this team far more than that team.

Just understand that this team is more comparable to the 2010-2011 team than the 2012-13, 2013-14 teams, in a season that is far more wide open than those two were.
 
I agree overall in that these two teams remind me of each other. And they were both guard dominated. Hopefully we have similar results in March.
 
I had been thinking this for a while. The problem I'm running into in my mind now, however, is that the team's we've lost to this year are worse than 2011. On the other side of the coin, some of our best wins this year are better than we had then. This team is such a freakin enigma, I'm not even sure what to want or expect from them.
 
Statistically it's true. And honestly, if I am picking between the two I'm taking Marcus Lee.

What argument do you have in favor of Harrelson?
Effort & consistency for one. You knew what to expect from Jorts. And bulk. His 270 pounds were harder to push around than Lee. On the other hand Lee is much more athletic and is not likely to get a putback dunk or catch a lob. I'd take Harrelson personally, but I wouldn't say it's by a wide margin.
 
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2010-2011 record through 22 games: 16-6
2015-2016 record through 22 games: 16-6

2010-2011 largest margin of loss: 17 (granted this was to eventual National Champs UCONN)
2015-2016 largest margin of loss: 18 (LSU)

2010-2011 conference road record: 2-6
2015-2016 conference road record: 2-? (I'm going to guess it will be close to 3-6, or 4-5)

----I would argue our two wins (@Bama, @Ark) on the road so far this season are better road wins than that year (USCjr 14-16 final record, UT 18-13 final record)

2010-2011: Undefeated at Rupp
2015-2016: Undefeated so far

----Both teams have had a couple of big margin of victory wins at home in conference



LINEUP 2010-2011:
Senior Josh Harrelson (6'10 275)
Junior DeAndre Liggins (6'6 215)
Junior Darius Miller (6'7 235)
Freshman Brandon Knight (6'3 195)

Rotated Starting Lineup:
Freshman Doron Lamb (6'4 210)
Freshman Terrance Jones (6'9 252)

If you look at the minutes Cal played 6 men.

LINEUP 2015-2016

Isaiah Briscoe (6'3 202)
Tyler Ulis (5'9 160)
Alex Poythress (6'8 230)
Jamal Murray (6'4 207)
Derek Willis (6'9 220)

Skal Labissiere (6'10 225)
Marcus Lee (6'9 224)
Dominique Hawkins

Comparing the two teams:

Harrelson v. *Lee (Push) Their stats are almost identical across the board
Jones v. Poythress (Advantage Jones) Though their offensive stats are very similar, defense of Jones >
Knight v. Ulis (Advantage Ulis in everything except 3pt. % and height)
Liggins v. Briscoe (Advantage Liggins)
Miller v. Murray (Advantage Miller)

Lamb v. Murray (Advantage Lamb due to higher 3pt. %)

2010-2011 Bench: Lamb/Jones
2015-2016 Bench: *Willis/Labissiere/Hawkins

*I realize Willis is a starter now, but majority of the season, and for match-up purposes I switched him and Lee for a better comparison.


These teams match-up very evenly with each other. Defensively I would give the nod to 2015-2016 with Ulis, Briscoe, Poythress, Lee (out of foul trouble), Hawkins

2010-2011 had Liggins, Jones, and Harrelson (didn't try to do too much).

Offensively the 2010-2011 team was superior at every spot from 3pt.%, and IMO is a major factor, if not THE major factor, in college basketball.


Right now if I were picking between the two teams, as of February 3rd, I would take 2015-2016. If we had won the game AT Kansas we would be talking Final Four run. It was a last second miscue by Ulis, a few less fouls, or a 3 at all in the 2nd half from a win.

Last night's game is a conundrum, and I am not going to allow it to carry much weight.

2013-2014 had the terrible loss against South Carolina and we still made a Championship run. I like this team far more than that team.

Just understand that this team is more comparable to the 2010-2011 team than the 2012-13, 2013-14 teams, in a season that is far more wide open than those two were.
Very frustrating team through the regular season (even lost 3 of 4 in February) but put it together nicely in the SEC tournament. Hoping to see this team put it together in the SECT too.
 
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@Eight_Banners Thanks for the work here, but I couldnt disagree more.


You are going to compare a team that shot 40% from the 3 to this one? Barely in the 30's???

A team that was a mid 70% Free Throw shooting team to this one in the mid 60's?



Where is this team's upperclassmen leadership ala Miller, Liggins, Jorts?


You take Lee over Jorts, wow, wow, wow - do you not remember the pick and pop with Knight and Jorts?

Do you not remember Jorts vs UL?? 23 points and 14 rebounds?

Sullinger would have hurt Lee's feelings, instead he still has a Spalding emblem on his chest.

Lee only wished he could hit that jumper or block out like Jorts, and Marcus could never pick and pop, hell Marcus cant pick without fouling.

Jorts was not athletic but had a feel for the game, had good hands - I hate slamming Lee but your view is far off base...


These teams do not match up well whatsoever...


Knight could hold Tyler.

Liggins would shutdown Murray.

Briscoe could contain Lamb, Doron doesnt need to even guard Briscoe.

Jones would eat on the boards all day long. Alex would wilt against him offensively.

Jorts would push Skal and Lee both around.

Who can guard Miller? Who could Miller not guard?


2011 had team issues to work around not individual talent issues.


This year's team has ONE all around player in Tyler.
Alex shows up occasionally.
Lee has zero offensive game and his defense has gotten worse.
Skal can hit a jumper and flex...
Briscoe can guard but cant play guard on offense.
Murray is inconsistent and his defense has been awful
Derek is limited defensively.
Dom is a defender only.
Mathews...still waiting.
Mulder is supposed to be a shooter and great athlete...

This team lacks talent. Lots of quality role players.

2011 Cal had to redesign the offense with Knight and Jorts, but the pieces were there.
 
Statistically it's true. And honestly, if I am picking between the two I'm taking Marcus Lee.

What argument do you have in favor of Harrelson?
He made a difference in games and rarely fouled out. In other words, the complete opposite of Lee as of late.
 
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Statistically it's true. And honestly, if I am picking between the two I'm taking Marcus Lee.

What argument do you have in favor of Harrelson?

JH was an excellent rebounder. He knew how to use his size to get proper rebounding position. JH also had offensive game. Not only did he have great touch, but he converted offensive rebounds into points at an extremely high rate, especially toward the end of the season. In addition, JH was a far better shooter in general, particularly on free throws.

Again, these skills made him a far more efficient and effective player than Marcus has been at any point in his career.

The interior combo of JH and Terrence Jones would absolutely eat this team alive on both ends. Given the 2011 team's obvious offensive advantage, I really think this year's squad would struggle to compete with them. Maybe 2 or 3 wins out of 10? Seems about right.
 
a lot of people comparing here but I would say the one thing this team doesn't have that the previous team did was deandre liggins. LOCK DOWN DEFENDER.. he could guard no catch. could hit some bog shots too... that team didn't play scared. look dudes.. we have tyler.. thats it.
 
I know you're getting push back, OP, but I tend to agree with you. A lot of similarities between '11 and '16. (Occasionally someone will compare this year to '14, and I can't see that at all.) Yeah, Jorts was better than what we've got right now on a typical night - but let's not make Josh into something more than he was, which was 8.8 boards and 6.4 points per night (I would have thought those higher, honestly). But the combo of Skal+Lee+Poythress can reasonably hope to give us enough - they just have to play more consistently.

The real positives we have? 1. April is guard time, and we have an excellent back court. 2. Our coach is 22-4 in the NCAAT, he builds teams for the tournament. 3. It's a down year in college hoops, no teams to really fear. Kinda like '11 in that regard, when the Final Four teams were 3,4,8 and 11 seeds, IIRC.......
 
Where do people get that statistically they are the same?

Am i missing something here.

Lee is averaging 6.8 and 6.2
Josh averaged 7.6 and 8.7
 
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I know you're getting push back, OP, but I tend to agree with you. A lot of similarities between '11 and '16. (Occasionally someone will compare this year to '14, and I can't see that at all.) Yeah, Jorts was better than what we've got right now on a typical night - but let's not make Josh into something more than he was, which was 8.8 boards and 6.4 points per night (I would have thought those higher, honestly). But the combo of Skal+Lee+Poythress can reasonably hope to give us enough - they just have to play more consistently.

The real positives we have? 1. April is guard time, and we have an excellent back court. 2. Our coach is 22-4 in the NCAAT, he builds teams for the tournament. 3. It's a down year in college hoops, no teams to really fear. Kinda like '11 in that regard, when the Final Four teams were 3,4,8 and 11 seeds, IIRC.......



Dont see it Mojo...

Skal+Lee+Poythress:

Alex shows up once every 4-5 games.
Lee has never had any offense to his game.
Skal has never rebounded well or played on the block well.


we have an excellent back court:

Tyler has to play 40 minutes, thats not good
Murray can be awesome or go 1-10, he is consistent on defense... :(
Briscoe cant shoot 3's or free throws

How is this excellent?


Our coach is 22-4 in the NCAAT:

Yep


It's a down year in college hoops:

Yep


Kinda like '11 in that regard:

However, our 2011 team was responsible for taking out the favored #1, a #2, and a #5

Also two #2's and a #1 made it to the E8
 
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I can't get on board with this. Miller over Murray. Lee over Harrelson. Ullis slightly over Knight.

I know you're using stats but this is a perfect example of why I say you can't take stats as a be all end all. Harrelson had more heart in his left foot than Lee has in his entire body. Harrelson had range, and footwork. I love Tyler but Knight had a flat killer instinct. While Tyler shows no fear on the court and will battle with anyone, he's doesn't have the ice water in his vains that I think Knight has.

I will say I don't think that 2011 team had any business being in the FF but heart drove that team after they slipped past Princeton on a last second shot.

Sure if this year's UK squad makes the FF, they probably have no business there either but they would need someone to dig down and drive them there like Harrelson did.
 
Dont see it Mojo...

Skal+Lee+Poythress:

Alex shows up once every 4-5 games.
Lee has never had any offense to his game.
Skal has never rebounded well or played on the block well.


we have an excellent back court:

Tyler has to play 40 minutes, thats not good
Murray can be awesome or go 1-10, he is consistent on defense... :(
Briscoe cant shoot 3's or free throws

How is this excellent?


Our coach is 22-4 in the NCAAT:

Yep


It's a down year in college hoops:

Yep


Kinda like '11 in that regard:

However, our 2011 team was responsible for taking out the favored #1, a #2, and a #5

Also two #2's and a #1 made it to the E8
Acknowledged, and you may turn out to be exactly right bp. Obviously, just because something unusual happened once doesn't mean we can or should count on it happening again. Putting aside any analysis of this particular team, the law of averages says Cal simply can't keep making deep tournament runs every year - if anyone was ever due for an early upset, it's him. If you focus on the Duke, UofL and KU games, it's easy to envision at least something of a run against a weak field. Of course, thinking of Auburn or Tennessee or .......will convince you otherwise!
 
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2010-2011 record through 22 games: 16-6
2015-2016 record through 22 games: 16-6

2010-2011 largest margin of loss: 17 (granted this was to eventual National Champs UCONN)
2015-2016 largest margin of loss: 18 (LSU)

2010-2011 conference road record: 2-6
2015-2016 conference road record: 2-? (I'm going to guess it will be close to 3-6, or 4-5)

----I would argue our two wins (@Bama, @Ark) on the road so far this season are better road wins than that year (USCjr 14-16 final record, UT 18-13 final record)

2010-2011: Undefeated at Rupp
2015-2016: Undefeated so far

----Both teams have had a couple of big margin of victory wins at home in conference



LINEUP 2010-2011:
Senior Josh Harrelson (6'10 275)
Junior DeAndre Liggins (6'6 215)
Junior Darius Miller (6'7 235)
Freshman Brandon Knight (6'3 195)

Rotated Starting Lineup:
Freshman Doron Lamb (6'4 210)
Freshman Terrance Jones (6'9 252)

If you look at the minutes Cal played 6 men.

LINEUP 2015-2016

Isaiah Briscoe (6'3 202)
Tyler Ulis (5'9 160)
Alex Poythress (6'8 230)
Jamal Murray (6'4 207)
Derek Willis (6'9 220)

Skal Labissiere (6'10 225)
Marcus Lee (6'9 224)
Dominique Hawkins

Comparing the two teams:

Harrelson v. *Lee (Push) Their stats are almost identical across the board
Jones v. Poythress (Advantage Jones) Though their offensive stats are very similar, defense of Jones >
Knight v. Ulis (Advantage Ulis in everything except 3pt. % and height)
Liggins v. Briscoe (Advantage Liggins)
Miller v. Murray (Advantage Miller)

Lamb v. Murray (Advantage Lamb due to higher 3pt. %)

2010-2011 Bench: Lamb/Jones
2015-2016 Bench: *Willis/Labissiere/Hawkins

*I realize Willis is a starter now, but majority of the season, and for match-up purposes I switched him and Lee for a better comparison.


These teams match-up very evenly with each other. Defensively I would give the nod to 2015-2016 with Ulis, Briscoe, Poythress, Lee (out of foul trouble), Hawkins

2010-2011 had Liggins, Jones, and Harrelson (didn't try to do too much).

Offensively the 2010-2011 team was superior at every spot from 3pt.%, and IMO is a major factor, if not THE major factor, in college basketball.


Right now if I were picking between the two teams, as of February 3rd, I would take 2015-2016. If we had won the game AT Kansas we would be talking Final Four run. It was a last second miscue by Ulis, a few less fouls, or a 3 at all in the 2nd half from a win.

Last night's game is a conundrum, and I am not going to allow it to carry much weight.

2013-2014 had the terrible loss against South Carolina and we still made a Championship run. I like this team far more than that team.

Just understand that this team is more comparable to the 2010-2011 te0am than the 2012-13, 2013-14 teams, in a season that is far more wide open than those two were.
NO COMPARISON! That team would destroy this one
 
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What does Lee do well right now ? You need to excel in one aspect but he just fouls mostly , he is a volleyball player playing basketball . He could be active around the rim but he just kind of stands there , wake up . Unless Poy does it it March , I don't think it will be done .
 
Harrelson, much better on offense than Lee, much more physical than Lee, better rebounder. More toughness than Lee, Poythress, and Skal put together. Ulis and Knight push, like Ulis more. nobody else on this team would play on the 2011 team imo.
 
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2 things that made that year exciting for me personally at tournament time:
1: what opposing player cal would go after to draw fouls. We went at opposing players and drew fouls to take them out of the game.
2. Whoever was the biggest threat on the opponent side, cal would put liggins on them. His shutdown ability was fun to watch.
You could see cal's strategy each game in that run. It was truly fun to watch
 
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2010-2011 record through 22 games: 16-6
2015-2016 record through 22 games: 16-6

2010-2011 largest margin of loss: 17 (granted this was to eventual National Champs UCONN)
2015-2016 largest margin of loss: 18 (LSU)

2010-2011 conference road record: 2-6
2015-2016 conference road record: 2-? (I'm going to guess it will be close to 3-6, or 4-5)

----I would argue our two wins (@Bama, @Ark) on the road so far this season are better road wins than that year (USCjr 14-16 final record, UT 18-13 final record)

2010-2011: Undefeated at Rupp
2015-2016: Undefeated so far

----Both teams have had a couple of big margin of victory wins at home in conference



LINEUP 2010-2011:
Senior Josh Harrelson (6'10 275)
Junior DeAndre Liggins (6'6 215)
Junior Darius Miller (6'7 235)
Freshman Brandon Knight (6'3 195)

Rotated Starting Lineup:
Freshman Doron Lamb (6'4 210)
Freshman Terrance Jones (6'9 252)

If you look at the minutes Cal played 6 men.

LINEUP 2015-2016

Isaiah Briscoe (6'3 202)
Tyler Ulis (5'9 160)
Alex Poythress (6'8 230)
Jamal Murray (6'4 207)
Derek Willis (6'9 220)

Skal Labissiere (6'10 225)
Marcus Lee (6'9 224)
Dominique Hawkins

Comparing the two teams:

Harrelson v. *Lee (Push) Their stats are almost identical across the board
Jones v. Poythress (Advantage Jones) Though their offensive stats are very similar, defense of Jones >
Knight v. Ulis (Advantage Ulis in everything except 3pt. % and height)
Liggins v. Briscoe (Advantage Liggins)
Miller v. Murray (Advantage Miller)

Lamb v. Murray (Advantage Lamb due to higher 3pt. %)

2010-2011 Bench: Lamb/Jones
2015-2016 Bench: *Willis/Labissiere/Hawkins

*I realize Willis is a starter now, but majority of the season, and for match-up purposes I switched him and Lee for a better comparison.


These teams match-up very evenly with each other. Defensively I would give the nod to 2015-2016 with Ulis, Briscoe, Poythress, Lee (out of foul trouble), Hawkins

2010-2011 had Liggins, Jones, and Harrelson (didn't try to do too much).

Offensively the 2010-2011 team was superior at every spot from 3pt.%, and IMO is a major factor, if not THE major factor, in college basketball.


Right now if I were picking between the two teams, as of February 3rd, I would take 2015-2016. If we had won the game AT Kansas we would be talking Final Four run. It was a last second miscue by Ulis, a few less fouls, or a 3 at all in the 2nd half from a win.

Last night's game is a conundrum, and I am not going to allow it to carry much weight.

2013-2014 had the terrible loss against South Carolina and we still made a Championship run. I like this team far more than that team.

Just understand that this team is more comparable to the 2010-2011 team than the 2012-13, 2013-14 teams, in a season that is far more wide open than those two were.

I'm sorry, but outside of record and jersey color, I see no resemblance whatsoever between this team and the '10-'11 team. Just compare the two out of conference losses alone. The '10-'11 team lost early in the year to eventual national champion UConn and on the road to an elite eight UNC team. This year's team got embarrassed by an awful UCLA team and lost to a bad Ohio State team. I just don't see the '10-'11 team losing those games.

And outside of the Georgia game, all of the '10-'11 team's conference losses were on the road and by three points or less. That team's issue was they just needed to learn how to close out games.

This year's team has a whole host of problems and has seen both wildly erratic play and additional embarrassing losses in conference play. Again, I just don't see the '10-'11 team blowing big leads like this year's group has. And you were far less concerned about effort from the '10-'11 team. Outside of Tyler, I'm not sure I'd take anyone from this year's team over the '10-'11 team, and I still might take Knight there too.

Just look at Cal's demeanor right now and compare it to his demeanor during the '10-'11 season. He was much more upbeat and far less concerned about the losses they took that season. "I like my team" was repeated almost ad nauseum that year, and it was apparent he knew that group was always very close. I haven't gotten that same sense from Cal at all this year.

That's not to say this team can't suddenly pull it together and go on a run in March. However, I think the comparison to the '10-'11 team is way off the mark, to put it bluntly.
 
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I don't agree. The only thing this team has in common with 2011 is a 16-6 record and a talented point guard. The run that the 2011 team had was amazing. Knight was clutch with the buzzer beater in round 1 and the shot against Ohio State. Harrelson's performance against Sullinger and Hansbor was nothing short of amazing. I just can't see the personnel we have putting on a run like that.
 
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No way I would take Lee over Harrelson. Harrelson was a much better shooter and a tougher player than Lee is. I would also take Murray over Miller and Lamb.

Harrelson shot 61%
Lee shoots 65%

Harrelson was better from the free throw line but neither of them shoot enough for it to matter.

Lee rebounds better than Harrelson, but not by much

Lee blocks significantly better than Harrelson
 
Harrelson shot 61%
Lee shoots 65%

Harrelson was better from the free throw line but neither of them shoot enough for it to matter.

Lee rebounds better than Harrelson, but not by much

Lee blocks significantly better than Harrelson

Regarding shooting percentages, you are completely disregarding shot selection. Lee's 65% is almost exclusively from lobs and putbacks. Harrelson was capable of hitting mid-range jumpers reliably, and even driving to the basket depending on the defender.

Because Lee is so one dimensional, he is eliminated as an offensive threat in most situations, which helps defenses focus in more on our other players. That extra 4% shooting you get with Lee comes at a very high cost.
 
You know what I remember about that 2011 team...I remember this place was still the Cats Pause and I remember the fans.

I remember everyone being deflated and looking for someone to blame after the John Wall team's disappointment. I remember the "This one and done crap won't work" "Cal needs talent to win and these guys do not have it" I remember that ROUGH conference stretch where they were good at home, but struggled on the road. I remember the night at Alabama where Cal called out Terrence Jones for being selfish and how he disappeared after his strong start to the year, remember the F'n selfish video all over ESPN. I remember people posting about Darius being soft and how the fans overrate him because he's a hometown boy. I remember the fan questioning whether CAL should be the coach at UK..I remember that team playing a TOUGH Florida team on the road and coming up just short..(like last Saturday). Seems like a lot of things said about that team was similar to this...

But I remember myself telling everyone that this team was "young, inexperienced, and still learning" and that teams like that have more room to grow than other teams.

It's funny how we remember things, what if we ignored the 2010-11 team's finish and compared them to this year. We remember that team highly because of the way they finished...ending the final four drought after having to go through one of the toughest series of games. You could say the same exact thing about 2013-14.

If we went back on these forums 5 years to 2011, we'd be reading the same exact things about that team. It's easy to compare teams in retrospect..especially after that team went to a Final 4 and we ignore their struggles. I really imagine what would people say if Nerlens had not gone down and that team had made the tournament and this sky is falling mentality would not exist. Tournament time is where it is at, Cal is 22-4 and I trust he will do a good job getting this team ready.
 
A couple big differences:

1) Most of our 2011 early losses were to better competition (including North Carolina, Florida and the eventual national champion UConn) than the crappy teams like Auburn, Tennessee, LSU and OSU we've been losing to this year.

2) 2011 had Terrence Jones and Josh Harrellson as its starting bigs, both of whom could actually bang and defend inside and would stomp the snot out the softy big man play we've had this year.
 
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