SEC team stats paint a picture about UK-TX A&M

[Rembrandt90]

You can't always predict the outcome of a football game by looking at stats from previous games. If you could, the Las Vegas bookmakers would seldom be wrong.

Our Wildcats were underdogs in three games this year. We won all three, and UK is 5-0.

TX A&M is 3-2, but their two losses came against #1 Alabama and #4 Clemson. TX A&M came very close to beating Clemson in College Station a month ago.

Therein lies UK's challenge. We must play on the road, and our opponent has already played two teams ranked higher than us. Once again, UK is the betting underdog.

Stats show TX A&M has performed better than UK in total offense and scoring offense. UK has been marginally better than TX A&M in rushing offense. But UK has been the least productive team in the conference in passing.

TX A&M's OL is last in the conference in allowing sacks. UK's defense has produced more sacks than TX A&M's defense. UK has a better turnover margin than TX A&M. But UK has been penalized far more.

UK has been better than TX A&M in total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense. But TX A&M's run defense has been the best in the conference.

Knowing this, Coach Gran understands UK must move the football through the air. Gran won't abandon what has made UK successful. Benny Snell is the SEC's best RB. But TX A&M will load the box to stop Benny, and their defense is good enough to limit our running game if we can't pass the football.

So Gran cannot plan on a 2-1 run-pass ratio in the first half. He must pass the football and force the defense to play honest against Benny.

UK will also load the box to stop Trayveon Williams, the SEC's second-best RB. Like UK, TX A&M is a better running team than passing team. But Kellen Monk has a strong arm, and is capable of having a good day through the air. That's why Josh Allen must get pressure on him.

Eddie Gran needs to have a big day, and UK can't afford interceptions and lots of penalties. So this game is a test of which team has grown more, and it will be a big test for Terry Wilson. UK will need TW to win this game.

Who wins? TX A&M is favored, but we know that doesn't matter. Until now, UK has always found a way to win. To find a way to win tomorrow, our coaches must identify a weakness in Texas A&M and exploit it for two halves. We must be the hungrier, more physical team. I think we will be.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

“We Gonna Do It!”

 

[BlueTick2]

"Load the box" like everyone else has done.
Run up the middle, run right, run left, and to cross the up run some more.

 

[docholiday51]

Can we get off the field on 3rd down and can we avoid giving up the big play on defense? TAM's pass defense isn't all that good,are we good enough in the passing game to take advantage of it.

Just be in the game in the 4th and have a chance to win at a tough place to play.We will need to play with discipline and not beat ourselves

Win time of possession and turnovers and I like our chances.

 

[Deeeefense]

But UK has been the least productive team in the conference in passing.

Of course that's by design not by accident. We only pass as much as we need to and no more.

 

[Bluegrass79]

Terry Wilson should look to CJ CONRAD first when going through progressions. Conrad could break their back.
You go heavy on passes to Conrad and run your slot receiver through the middle with Lynn Bowden's speed.

 

[EliteBlue]

"We can run on anybody"

I have a feeling we put that quote to test this weekend and don't do anything drastically different than we have been doing until they prove that we have to by getting up 2 scores. But if it is a 1 possession game and our defense is playing well, then I expect to see a lot of ground and pound attempting to break them in the 4th...with some well timed passing mixed in to keep them off balance.

 

[Bluegrass79]

"We can run on anybody"

I have a feeling we put that quote to test this weekend and don't do anything drastically different than we have been doing until they prove that we have to by getting up 2 scores. But if it is a 1 possession game and our defense is playing well, then I expect to see a lot of ground and pound attempting to break them in the 4th...with some well timed passing mixed in to keep them off balance.

texas am run defense stats are inflated. They played 3 big cupcakes with Clemson and Bama' through 5 games. Go look at who they played and you will see why they have the #1 rush defense. I'd take atleast 10% away from their rushing defense stats.
On the otherhand Kentucky's run game stats are LEGIT.
Kentucky will RUN on texas am. Bet on it. Another day another dollar for Kentucky in this game. I feel good bout em'

 

[EliteBlue]

texas am run defense stats are inflated. They played 3 big cupcakes with Clemson and Bama' through 5 games. Go look at who they played and you will see why they have the #1 rush defense. I'd take atleast 10% away from their rushing defense stats.
On the otherhand Kentucky's run game stats are LEGIT.
Kentucky will RUN on texas am. Bet on it.

To add to this; Clemson likes to throw and spread it out. Also, this years Bama team isn't your traditional Bama where the QB "manages the game" and they pound you into submission. They are way more balanced and like to let Tua do his thing. Bama didn't put up 300+ yards of pass offense because they couldn't run the ball. Passing is actually one of their (many) strengths this year and they played to their strength.

 

[SPECT imaging]

Terry Wilson should look to CJ CONRAD first when going through progressions. Conrad could break their back.
You go heavy on passes to Conrad and run your slot receiver through the middle with Lynn Bowden's speed.

I believe TW must go vertical. Throwing short passes into the middle of the field would not force TAM out of a stacked defense against our running game. When TW went vertical against UF, that was when things opened up for Snell. TW is capable, but we need to involve more receivers than just Bowden.

 

[texasguyto]

texas am run defense stats are inflated. They played 3 big cupcakes with Clemson and Bama' through 5 games. Go look at who they played and you will see why they have the #1 rush defense. I'd take atleast 10% away from their rushing defense stats.
On the otherhand Kentucky's run game stats are LEGIT.
Kentucky will RUN on texas am. Bet on it. Another day another dollar for Kentucky in this game. I feel good bout em'

Aggie here, our run defense is legit. Our DL controlled the line of scrimmage against every team we have played. The weakness of our defense is pass defense and that includes our pass rush at times. Even Bama struggled running the ball against us, almost 1/3 of their yards came on one play.

 

[TTU/UK fan]

A&M's rushing defensive numbers are sort of inflated because they have been controlling the QB run well. RBs have still been averaging 4-6 yds a carry vs them.

 

[Bluegrasscard]

I believe TW must go vertical. Throwing short passes into the middle of the field would not force TAM out of a stacked defense against our running game. When TW went vertical against UF, that was when things opened up for Snell. TW is capable, but we need to involve more receivers than just Bowden.

So go to the receiver that has more than 5 pass receptions with an average of over 18 yards each and 2 TDs?

 

[SPECT imaging]

So go to the receiver that has more than 5 pass receptions with an average of over 18 yards each and 2 TDs?

Bowden and Conrad lead the team in receptions. They are already involved in the offense.

Dorian Baker has caught 8 passes. Tavin Richardson has caught 2 passes. They must become more involved this week. I would also throw the football to Benny 4-5 times to isolate him against a LB and let him run in open field.

 

[Rembrandt90]

Can we get off the field on 3rd down?

Very good question. So far, UK is last in the SEC in preventing third-down conversions. TX A&M is 6th in the SEC in converting on third-down. So our defense has to step up tomorrow in that category.

 

[stir8ag]

texas am run defense stats are inflated. They played 3 big cupcakes with Clemson and Bama' through 5 games. Go look at who they played and you will see why they have the #1 rush defense. I'd take atleast 10% away from their rushing defense stats.
On the otherhand Kentucky's run game stats are LEGIT.
Kentucky will RUN on texas am. Bet on it. Another day another dollar for Kentucky in this game. I feel good bout em'

-A&M held a Clemson team averaging 242yds per game on the ground to 115yds.
-Held a Bama team averaging 217 per game on the ground to 109yds
-Held a Arkansas team averaging 141 per game on the ground to 55 yds

A&M may have inflated stats against two bad teams but hasn't UK played against Murray State and Central Michigan? Yeah, Arkansas is worse than USCe, Miss State, and Florida, but Bama and Clemson are also significantly better than any of those 3 teams.

I'm not saying UK wont run the ball up and down the field on us, because there's no doubt in my mind that y'alls run game is legit, but we've played two very very good rushing teams in Bama and Clemson and held them to half their averages on the ground and no one we've played has come close to reaching their average rushing numbers against us. It's possible that UK is significantly better rushing than either Clemson or Bama, but those are two of the top programs in the nation and they both run the ball extremely well. IF we are able to hold Kentucky's rushing numbers to around what we held Clemson and Bama, on the ground (about 110 yds rushing), what happens at that point? I think that's the point the article is making.

Should be a good game.

 

[Rembrandt90]

-A&M held a Clemson team averaging 242yds per game on the ground to 115yds.
-Held a Bama team averaging 217 per game on the ground to 109yds
-Held a Arkansas team averaging 141 per game on the ground to 55 yds

A&M may have inflated stats against two bad teams but hasn't UK played against Murray State and Central Michigan? Yeah, Arkansas is worse than USCe, Miss State, and Florida, but Bama and Clemson are also significantly better than any of those 3 teams.

I'm not saying UK wont run the ball up and down the field on us, because there's no doubt in my mind that y'alls run game is legit, but we've played two very very good rushing teams in Bama and Clemson and held them to half their averages on the ground and no one we've played has come close to reaching their average rushing numbers against us. It's possible that UK is significantly better rushing than either Clemson or Bama, but those are two of the top programs in the nation and they both run the ball extremely well. IF we are able to hold Kentucky's rushing numbers to around what we held Clemson and Bama, on the ground (about 110 yds rushing), what happens at that point? I think that's the point the article is making.

Should be a good game.

UK will run the football successfully tomorrow if Eddie Gran and Terry Wilson can prove to the Aggies’ defense that they have to be concerned about Wilson throwing over the top. But if the Aggies aren’t worried about UK’s vertical passing game, then they will load the box and make things tough for Benny Snell. At the risk of oversimplifying, that is the key to the game.

UK is statistically the worst passing team in the conference. But Wilson has already proven he can win a competitive road game by completing vertical passes. That’s how we beat Florida. You might find out that Wilson’s passing game has mainly been limited by Snell’s greatness.

Both teams are physical. But the time for talk is over now. If you can beat us, more power to you. We will find out soon.

 

[stir8ag]

"We can run on anybody"

I have a feeling we put that quote to test this weekend and don't do anything drastically different than we have been doing until they prove that we have to by getting up 2 scores. But if it is a 1 possession game and our defense is playing well, then I expect to see a lot of ground and pound attempting to break them in the 4th...with some well timed passing mixed in to keep them off balance.

Both teams want to do this. A&M would prefer to run it and play defense just like UK does. Both UK and A&M want to win time of possession. The only time you'll see Mond/ A&M throw it around a bunch is if they have to like they did against Clemson and Bama, because you just aren't going to ram it down their throats and keep up with them offensively. In all the other games this year, we've been heavy heavy run, held the ball, played field position, and played defense. IMO, first one to 24pts wins this game...I just dont see either team having a ton of offensive possessions because you have two offenses that are happy to try to go down the field at 5 yards a pop.

 

[stir8ag]

UK will run the football successfully tomorrow if Eddie Gran and Terry Wilson can prove to the Aggies’ defense that they have to be concerned about Wilson throwing over the top. But if the Aggies aren’t worried about UK’s vertical passing game, then they will load the box and make things tough for Benny Snell. At the risk of oversimplifying, that is the key to the game.

UK is statistically the worst passing team in the conference. But Wilson has already proven he can win a competitive road game by completing vertical passes. That’s how we beat Florida. You might find out that Wilson’s passing game has mainly been limited by Snell’s greatness.

Both teams are physical. But the time for talk is over now. If you can beat us, more power to you. We will find out soon.

I don't think there's anyway A&M doesn't load the box. We've done that against everyone all season long and UK will be the best rushing attack we've played, but not as comfortable dropping back throwing as a Clemson or Alabama. Even against Clemson and Bama, who have good QBs and elite WR's, we stacked the box and were content to let them take deep shots in the pass game. I think our coordinators know we just aren't a good pass defense and would rather sell out to try and stop a team's rushing attack than sacrifice numbers to help with the pass. I say all that to say, we've given up a lot of vertical passing this year so don't expect that to keep us from selling out to stop the run...for better or worse.

 

[LordEggForgotHisPassword]

I still think bootlegging would help and her sweeps. But I can’t argue with the coaches this year.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Bowden and Conrad lead the team in receptions. They are already involved in the offense.

Dorian Baker has caught 8 passes. Tavin Richardson has caught 2 passes. They must become more involved this week. I would also throw the football to Benny 4-5 times to isolate him against a LB and let him run in open field.

Also do not forget David Bouvier, he has been effective when targeted.

 

[Rembrandt90]

I still think bootlegging would help and her sweeps. But I can’t argue with the coaches this year.

It would make sense to me to use a lot of play action in our passing game today. If TX A&M is determined to stop Benny, then let's use that to our advantage.

I also think TW should not be a stationary target in the pocket, especially if we fall behind. The bootleg only works once or twice in a game. But I would roll TW out. That worked against UF, and UF has a better defense than TX A&M.

 

[CatsIndy2010]

a&m will try to stop our running game and take advantage of our passing game. I believe this game will reflect mostly on the coaches and how they approach a team with these stats. The players are giving their all.

 

[Rembrandt90]

a&m will try to stop our running game and take advantage of our passing game. I believe this game will reflect mostly on the coaches and how they approach a team with these stats. The players are giving their all.

This game will be decided by execution. The team that executes its game plan and protects the football will win today.

If anyone still doesn’t believe our coaches know what they are doing, then they have not been watching. We are 5-0, nationally ranked. Our defense has improved by leaps and bounds. Josh Paschal got sick, so they got Calvin Taylor ready. Quinton Bohanna got hurt, so they got Tymere Dubose ready. Landon Young got hurt, so they got EJ Price ready. Stephen Johnson is gone, but they signed TW and got him ready. Win or lose today, our coaching staff is getting it done.

 

[CatsIndy2010]

Thank you for that perspective. If what you say happens, we should get another win.

 

[Rembrandt90]

Thank you for that perspective. If what you say happens, we should get another win.

I only said the game will be won by the team that executes its game plan and protects the football.

UK is a 4 point underdog on the road to an opponent that came within a FG of beating Clemson. Losing this game would disappoint our fans, but it would not diminish what our coaching staff has accomplished and is accomplishing. The only people who would take a critical point of view are those who are just looking for any excuse to turn on Stoops. Definition of a fair weather fan.