You can't always predict the outcome of a football game by looking at stats from previous games. If you could, the Las Vegas bookmakers would seldom be wrong.
Our Wildcats were underdogs in three games this year. We won all three, and UK is 5-0.
TX A&M is 3-2, but their two losses came against #1 Alabama and #4 Clemson. TX A&M came very close to beating Clemson in College Station a month ago.
Therein lies UK's challenge. We must play on the road, and our opponent has already played two teams ranked higher than us. Once again, UK is the betting underdog.
Stats show TX A&M has performed better than UK in total offense and scoring offense. UK has been marginally better than TX A&M in rushing offense. But UK has been the least productive team in the conference in passing.
TX A&M's OL is last in the conference in allowing sacks. UK's defense has produced more sacks than TX A&M's defense. UK has a better turnover margin than TX A&M. But UK has been penalized far more.
UK has been better than TX A&M in total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense. But TX A&M's run defense has been the best in the conference.
Knowing this, Coach Gran understands UK must move the football through the air. Gran won't abandon what has made UK successful. Benny Snell is the SEC's best RB. But TX A&M will load the box to stop Benny, and their defense is good enough to limit our running game if we can't pass the football.
So Gran cannot plan on a 2-1 run-pass ratio in the first half. He must pass the football and force the defense to play honest against Benny.
UK will also load the box to stop Trayveon Williams, the SEC's second-best RB. Like UK, TX A&M is a better running team than passing team. But Kellen Monk has a strong arm, and is capable of having a good day through the air. That's why Josh Allen must get pressure on him.
Eddie Gran needs to have a big day, and UK can't afford interceptions and lots of penalties. So this game is a test of which team has grown more, and it will be a big test for Terry Wilson. UK will need TW to win this game.
Who wins? TX A&M is favored, but we know that doesn't matter. Until now, UK has always found a way to win. To find a way to win tomorrow, our coaches must identify a weakness in Texas A&M and exploit it for two halves. We must be the hungrier, more physical team. I think we will be.
Our Wildcats were underdogs in three games this year. We won all three, and UK is 5-0.
TX A&M is 3-2, but their two losses came against #1 Alabama and #4 Clemson. TX A&M came very close to beating Clemson in College Station a month ago.
Therein lies UK's challenge. We must play on the road, and our opponent has already played two teams ranked higher than us. Once again, UK is the betting underdog.
Stats show TX A&M has performed better than UK in total offense and scoring offense. UK has been marginally better than TX A&M in rushing offense. But UK has been the least productive team in the conference in passing.
TX A&M's OL is last in the conference in allowing sacks. UK's defense has produced more sacks than TX A&M's defense. UK has a better turnover margin than TX A&M. But UK has been penalized far more.
UK has been better than TX A&M in total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense. But TX A&M's run defense has been the best in the conference.
Knowing this, Coach Gran understands UK must move the football through the air. Gran won't abandon what has made UK successful. Benny Snell is the SEC's best RB. But TX A&M will load the box to stop Benny, and their defense is good enough to limit our running game if we can't pass the football.
So Gran cannot plan on a 2-1 run-pass ratio in the first half. He must pass the football and force the defense to play honest against Benny.
UK will also load the box to stop Trayveon Williams, the SEC's second-best RB. Like UK, TX A&M is a better running team than passing team. But Kellen Monk has a strong arm, and is capable of having a good day through the air. That's why Josh Allen must get pressure on him.
Eddie Gran needs to have a big day, and UK can't afford interceptions and lots of penalties. So this game is a test of which team has grown more, and it will be a big test for Terry Wilson. UK will need TW to win this game.
Who wins? TX A&M is favored, but we know that doesn't matter. Until now, UK has always found a way to win. To find a way to win tomorrow, our coaches must identify a weakness in Texas A&M and exploit it for two halves. We must be the hungrier, more physical team. I think we will be.