Scouting Texas A&M

[IL Wildcat]

Texas A&M
Location: Bryan-College Station, Texas
Founded: 1872 (opened 1876)
Enrollment: 71,109 (Fall 2020)
Nickname: Aggies
Colors: Maroon and White
Home Court: Reed Arena (12,989)

Head Coach: Buzz Williams (Oklahoma City '94)
Record at A&M: 37-26 (2nd season)
Overall Record: 290-181 (14th season)

Season Schedule/ Results:
Nov10 North Florida W, 64-46
Nov12 Abilene Christian W, 81-80 (2OT)
Nov14 A&M-Corpus Christi W, 86-65
Nov17 Houston Baptist W, 73-39
Nov22 ! vs. Wisconsin L, 58-69
Nov23 ! vs. Butler W, 57-50
Nov24 ! vs. Notre Dame W, 73-67
Nov30 New Orleans W, 85-65
Dec11 # vs. TCU L, 64-68
Dec18 at Oregon State W, 83-73
Dec21 Northwestern State W, 80-61
Dec27 Dallas Christian W, 102-52
Dec29 Central Arkansas W, 85-59
Jan4 at Georgia W, 81-79
Jan8 Arkansas W, 86-81
Jan11 Ole Miss W, 67-51
Jan15 at Missouri W, 67-64

! = Maui Invitational
# = Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Game Info:
Wednesday, January 19 #12 Kentucky at Texas A&M 8:30pm EST
Television: SEC Network
Radio: UK Sports Network

Probable Starters
#1 Marcus Williams G 6-2 197 So 10.2pts, 4.1ast, 2.3 reb, 34.7% from 3
#10 Ethan Henderson F 6-8 193 Sr 2.9pts, 3.2reb, no 3pt threat
#15 Henry Coleman F 6-8 243 So 11.0pts, 5.3reb, 1.3stl no 3pt threat
#20 Andre Gordon G 6-2 186 Jr 8.3pts, 2.5reb, 2.3ast, 49.0% from 3
#23 Tyrece Radford G 6-2 197 Fr 9.5pts, 5.4reb, 1.3ast 35.1% from 3

Key Reserves
#3 Quenton Jackson G 6-5 173 5YSr 12.9pts, 3.3 reb, 1.4ast 38.9% from 3
#4 Wade Taylor IV G 6-0 186 Fr 7.7pts, 1.9reb, 2.7ast, 35.6% from 3
#5 Hassan Diarra G 6-2 196 So 6.4pts, 1.8reb, 34.7% from 3
#31 Javonte Brown C 7-0 253 Fr 1.9pts, 2.0reb

Team Stats
Points per game 76.0
Points allowed 62.9
Scoring margin +13.1
Field goal pct .469
FG% allowed .408
3-point FG pct .374
3FG% allowed .322
Free throw pct .639
Rebounds per game 35.8
Rebounds allowed 33.2
Rebounding margin +2.5
Assists per game 15.3
Turnovers per game 12.9
Turnovers forced 18.6
Turnover margin +5.6 -
Assist/turnover ratio 1.2
Steals per game 10.8
Blocks per game 4.1

KenPom Numbers:
Overall Rating: #59
Offensive Efficiency: #85
Defensive Efficiency: #45
Best Numbers:
Defensive steal %: 14.5% (#3 nationally)
Defensive turnover %: 25.4% (#8 nationally)
3pt percentage: 37.4% (#34 nationally)
Offensive Reb%: 32.8% (#51 nationally)
Worst Numbers:
FT%: 63.6% (#344 Nationally)
Defensive rebounding: 30.8% (#268 nationally)
Giving up steals: 9.9% (#235 nationally)

Analysis: The Texas A&M Aggies play host to the #12 Kentucky Wildcats at Reed Arena in College Station, TX on Wednesday, January 19 riding an 8-game winning streak, sitting at 15-2 and tied for 1st place in the SEC at 4-0. The Aggies haven’t lost at home this season and are likely feeling very confident as they prepare for the Wildcats. They may even feel a bit slighted, receiving very little attention from pollsters or the media despite their excellent record, and may see this game as an opportunity to garner a little national recognition. (they did receive 10 total votes in the AP poll this week)

The first thing that jumps out at me about TX A&M is their defensive numbers overall and specifically their steals. The Aggies have 183 steals on the season, which is an amazing number, good for 10.7 per game. They force 18.6 turnovers per game, which is definitely something to be concerned about. They trail only LSU in steals. On the offensive end of the floor, the biggest threat I see is their 3pt shooting. 5 of their top 7 players are shooting 35% or better from 3pt range, which accounts for about 30% of their total points. Playing at home, you can bet they’ll be making those shots when open.

From a personnel standpoint, the Aggies’ leading scorer actually comes off the bench. Quenton Jackson is a 6-5 173lb 5th year senior guard who hasn’t started a single game all season, yet averages 12.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game, and shoots 38.9% from 3. Buzz Williams has apparently concluded that he’s just better not starting. He shares time with starting guards Andre Gordon, a 6-2 186lb Junior who averages 8.3points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 49.0% from 3, and Tyrece Radford a 6-2 197lb Freshman averaging 9.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 assists shooting 35.1% from 3. The starting point guard is Marcus Williams. He’s a 6-2 197lb Sophomore who averages 10.2 points, a team-leading 4.1 assists, and 2.3 rebounds, and he shoots 34.7% from 3 as well. Down low, the anchor is Henry Coleman, a 6-8 243lb Sophomore who is averaging 11.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. The guy starting at power forward is Ethan Henderson, a 6-8 193lb Senior averaging 2.9 points, 3.2 rebounds. He is the top shot blocker on the team also, which is likely why he starts. We may also see Hassan Diarra a 6-2 196 Sophomore and another 35% shooter from 3 and Javonte Brown a 7-0 253lb Freshman center who is a big body but averages 1.9 points and 2.0 rebounds.

Texas A&M isn’t a team with a couple of superstars who dominate the action, so that makes them difficult to scout. They are a very workman-like, very balanced team. No one man will beat you, but they can all do a little something and you never know where the shot may come from. Buzz may throw 9-10 players at UK in this game and see what sticks. It has worked for Texas A&M all season.

I will say this, though, the 15-2 record is a bit deceiving. The highest-rated team TX A&M has played this season is #27 Wisconsin and they lost that game by 11 on a neutral court in Maui. They also lost on a neutral court to TCU in a close game down in Houston. Their best win was 86-81 over #38 Arkansas and they got them at home. They did beat Notre Dame in Maui (and I’m sure some here will point that out), though comparing a neutral game to a true road game is tricky. They have been fortunate that their 2 SEC road games have been to the two worst teams in the league, Georgia and Missouri, and it should be noted that both of those games came down to final possessions. They had to win that Georgia game on a last-second 3pt shot by Marcus Williams, with 1.9 seconds remaining. In the Missouri game, they were losing most of the day but came back at the end and Missouri found a way to lose. But they managed to win those games and they’ve definitely played better at home. You can bet your bottom dollar this will be a white-out or some kind of giveaway or promotion to draw in as many fans as possible, and I’m sure it will be a sell-out.

I actually feel pretty good about this game. I like our ball handlers against their defensive pressure and I like our player-by-player match-ups. They have balance but so does UK, and I think our players are better at each position. They are playing at home, so they will be shooting well, but UK has played teams with similar line-ups multiple times this season. I expect they will go right at Oscar to get him out of the game early, but their center isn’t a long, athletic guy. He’s more of a bruiser type, which means Oscar could have a good day. They are coming off a game they should have lost against a poor team, so they’re likely having some doubts. We are playing our best ball of the season right now, so I expect a win. KenPom predicts UK 77 TXAM 70.

My Prediction: Kentucky 82 TXAM 70

 

[davekersey]

Have a feeling Oscar will flourish tomorrow night

 

[chroix]

Thanks for the write up. Last second games against Georgia and Missouri has me feeling a little more relaxed.

 

[ukfan041]

Honestly, I’m not overly worried either! I think it will be a back and forth game until about the last 10 minutes. That’s when we’ll widen the margin and win by around 8-10 points. Thanks for all your effort on these game write-ups. I definitely enjoy them!

 

[TOMCATS1990]

Cats win by 10+ if everyone stays healthy and the refs don’t put Oscar and Ty Ty on the bench

 

[WeWant9]

I have been too lazy to look up their results, but now I can understand how they are 15-2 and not ranked. I expect a tough game, and I hate playing down there, but I feel UK will pull it out. Team is playing good ball and seems comfortable out there, nice having a roster of vets who are use to the road environment too.

 

[jrm693]

Have a feeling Oscar will flourish tomorrow night

Agree, first thing I looked at was how tall are their bigs, have watched them play a couple time they aren't super athletic so he should feast on them...anxious to see how he fares against Auburns big guys, if he can hold his own against them, then we should feel pretty good about tournament chances.

 

[Smashcat]

Great writeup. If Cal thinks the team needs more motivation, he can tell them TAMU did something we couldn't do. They beat Notre Dame.

 

[uk78]

Looking at the roster and who they have played it certainly looks like a team we can beat even on their home court. But, on the road expect them to get more ref calls and so back-up for Oscar will be needed. Fortunately, they don't have a main center bigger than even Keion, so it should be OK. I don't imagine we will shoot lights out like we did every game, but if just a couple players are hitting a few 3's that should keep their defense honest. Just don't slow the tempo because it is away.

 

[Dude Luv]

Good write up. Plus we get to see Buzz dance around.

Get Isaac Humphries to give a pre game pep talk.....

 

[kennyskywalker34]

Have a feeling Oscar will flourish tomorrow night

He will unless the Refs take him out of the game.

 

[bluefaithful]

Don't Jinx us with Oscar but does a great job of not reaching and getting stupid fouls like Nick did. This will be a good tune up for Auburn. We can't think about anything buy beating them.
Since the game is in Texas, I can assume Collins will get a few minutes. Let's hope he does well. I'm hoping Hopkins ups his game some more. That would be nice.

Go Cats@@@!!!!

 

[BourbonBalz]

Their best rebounder is a 6’2” freshman guard? As I said earlier, Oscar should feast.

TAM has very little size and only one 6’8” player that appears to be any scoring threat at all. We should destroy them on the boards.

 

[Padsfs07]

Yeah I said this in a thread last week about them:

The big thing with A&M is that they have zero inside presence. Ethan Henderson, a transfer from Arkansas, is their primary big and he wasn't good at Arkansas and isn't used much more than 15 minutes a game. They used to play 7-fter, Javonte Brown, a UCONN transfer, but he's barely playing at all now. Tshiebwe should have a huge game.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Yeah I said this in a thread last week about them:

The big thing with A&M is that they have zero inside presence. Ethan Henderson, a transfer from Arkansas, is their primary big and he wasn't good at Arkansas and isn't used much more than 15 minutes a game. They used to play 7-fter, Javonte Brown, a UCONN transfer, but he's barely playing at all now. Tshiebwe should have a huge game.

Yeah, I noticed Javonte Brown had several starts earlier in the season, but he's not getting much playing time now. I bet we'll see him for a few minutes tomorrow, though.

 

[Mike_Edwards]

Simple to me. Oscar stays out of foul trouble we win going away. Two early and it’s a rock fight.

 

[Catfan2226]

As I said in another thread,on paper we should win easily but TAMU is going to be ready.This is their super bowl,its sold out free Tshirt night.We have to bring it and play for 40,dont let them hang around as it just gives them confidence.I expect a hard fought game,just hope we dont underestimate them by looking ahead.Good teams dont look ahead,you take care of the opponent in front of you first.Go Cats.

 

[kybassfan]

Excellent write-up, as usual. Thanks for taking the time.

For myself, i will be watching turnovers and our success defending the three. I think if we take of business in those 2 areas, this will be a W.

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

These guys play tough hard nosed defense. A lot will depend on how the game is officiated, if Oscar stays on the floor he should have a big night. We also could use a big game from Grady as I see A&M hitting some 3s, he would be a good answer This is also a night that Brooks could have a big game if he decides to hit the glass.

 

[CHAMPCAT11]

He will unless the Refs take him out of the game.

This ^. If we play well and they play well AND the refs let us play I think we’re good. If they give Oscar a bogus foul in warmups and hit him again during player introductions (you know what I mean) then it will be a hard game. Just let both teams play and I’m good with it.

 

[bbncal02]

If we keep them off the arc, we win going away. And hop on a bus to Toomer’s Corner.

 

[gharding07]

Just don't turn the ball over and we should be fine

 

[Crazycat68]

Make FT’s

 

[UK-chulo]

This ^. If we play well and they play well AND the refs let us play I think we’re good. If they give Oscar a bogus foul in warmups and hit him again during player introductions (you know what I mean) then it will be a hard game. Just let both teams play and I’m good with it.

I fee like overall the refs have let Oscar play this season. Might be that he has a good demeanor on the court. He's not picking up any of those "getting on the refs' nerves fouls".

 

[phyrekat]

Every time I look at Buzz Williams, I hear the Three Stooges theme

 

[JFCats22]

I think A&M is a solid team. Not a team we should lose to even at their place though.

But, the only concern I have is with three point shooting. We have allowed teams WAY too many wide open threes recently. UT made 11 (48%), Vandy made 12 (40%), UGA made 8 (48%), LSU made 9 (40%). That is really poor 3 pt defense and A&M is better than all those teams from three.

 

[runt#69]

As always, many thanks for the writeup, I was looking forward to this one. I haven't seen A&M yet this year and was curious as to what exactly kind of team they are.

Like your take, I'll double down on your pick!

 

[Comebakatz3]

This is a take the over type game, right? Over 142.

 

[FinancialPlannerZac]

Can't be overstated how important winning tonight is. The national media has taken notice of how good UK is playing right now. A loss to both A&M and Auburn would knock them right back down to the 4-5 seed conversation. Win tonight, and a loss to Auburn doesn't kill you or even move the needle that much... Plus it lets you play with house's money at Auburn.

I say let's just win them both, putting us strongly in the 2-seed conversation with a chance at a 1-seed. Starts with taking care of business tonight!

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I think A&M is a solid team. Not a team we should lose to even at their place though.

But, the only concern I have is with three point shooting. We have allowed teams WAY too many wide open threes recently. UT made 11 (48%), Vandy made 12 (40%), UGA made 8 (48%), LSU made 9 (40%). That is really poor 3 pt defense and A&M is better than all those teams from three.

That is pretty terrible when you look at it like that...not sure why the coaches are allowing this. I get we blew out TN, Vandy and UGA...but it cost us in the LSU game for sure. I think with TN we thought they sucked from 3 and they surprised us...to be fair though as unrealistically good as UK shot in that game UT's 3 pointers didn't bother me much.

That said, the tend is not a good one as you pointed out. UK has to improve.

 

[CatStucknWA]

I always enjoy these, and know it takes time to write them up - so thank you.
Haven't seen A&M play this year, and of course, it will be t-shirt night, name the arena night, name the parking lot night, etc... - anything to fill the seats against us.

We need to get out and make it a track meet, but don't let up. Get a lead and keep our foot on the gas....get ready for Au-bum...

Go Cats.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think A&M is a solid team. Not a team we should lose to even at their place though.

But, the only concern I have is with three point shooting. We have allowed teams WAY too many wide open threes recently. UT made 11 (48%), Vandy made 12 (40%), UGA made 8 (48%), LSU made 9 (40%). That is really poor 3 pt defense and A&M is better than all those teams from three.

I re-watched LSU highlights just to see what was going on. LSU shot 23 three pointers and made 9 (39%) Here is how those makes looked:

I'd say probably 4 of the 9 they made were open/uncontested. 2 of those happened with Ware in the game. Ware was just a bit too late contesting. Another was TyTy screening himself somehow, on the first shot of the game for them. The last was poor pick and roll defense as both Mintz and O went with the ball leaving the screener (Days) wide open at the top of the key. Here are the others:

Eric Gaines went 2-2. He's a 20 percent 3 point shooter. The first one he makes is with 9 second on the shot clock. Mintz has his feet on the 3 point line, which is good position given Gaines' shooting/driving abilities. Gaines is another 3-4 feet beyond and pulls up and makes it. The next one he made actually put LSU up 51-50. He shot it in the extreme left corner, off of an offensive rebound, with Collins, who was late, getting in his face and it bounced off the side of the rim, up and off the backboard, above the square, and in. I'm not even sure how the physics of that works. Ideally you don't give up that rebound, but this was an ugly, fairly difficult shot from a bad shooter that just so happened to work. You could call this open, but that is a difficult shot that he rarely makes. Take his two 3 pointers out of that and suddenly LSU is just 7/23 (30%).

With about 4 minutes left, Days, who had gone like 1 of 8 up to that point in the game, pulls up from the edge of the Tiger logo at half court and hits one. Oscar was playing back off him actually with his feet on the three point line. This is a poor shot with 18 seconds left in the shot clock. It's from deep and a shot you'd typically give a guy. It went in. Not bad defense here.

Murray hits one with a hand in his face by TyTy, who doesn't really jump to contest it, but is still not giving him a whole lot of room. Murray, a 31% shooter, makes it. It happens.

So, a lot of these makes aren't really poor defense as much as they were actually bad shots by LSU that went in. Take away any 2 makes and that average drops from almost 40 percent to a touch over 30 percent, and a win for UK.

 

[true blue1]

Excellent write up!!!!!

 

[Comebakatz3]

Watching the UGA highlights:

Their first basket is a 3 pointer. Aaron Cook shoots it, his 1 make out of 3 attempts. It is from the edge of the UK logo. Literally his feet are in line with the logo, he's on it. Grady guarding him has his feet on the three point line, he closes out and almost hits the ball out of Cook's hands. Shot goes in.

Next 3 pointer is made by Buamann is contested by Brooks, not an open look at all.

Baumann also makes the next one. This was a transition basket. He was definitely wide open on this one due to the UK turnover.

Abdur-Rahim hits one that is open, but he's shooting it in line with the N on the Rupp Arena logo. So, it is an extremely deep three for a 30 percent three point shooter with 14 seconds left on the clock. Hopkins defending it, he's deeper than he should be, but it is a low percentage shot by a low percentage shooter.

Second half:

UGA gets a long rebound off a missed, fairly contested 3, and Brooks' man Baumann is sitting at the three point line and knocks it down. Open look.

Georgia drives and draws a double team on the driver. Grady following his man on the baseline sees the open man and leaves his own man to guard the guy under the basket as well as probably believes the driver is likely going to shoot, so he boxes out on the far side of the lane. Driver makes a difficult pass to Etter on the opposite wing He hits a wide open shot. Grady in a rock and a hard place there as he left a good shooter, to pick up a man wide open under the basket.

Christian Wright (28%) shoots another long one that he steps into. UK up 75-58 at this point, defense not playing real hard. Mintz for some reason steps over to help Grady, who was kind of playing off his man. Poor decision by Mintz, who can't recover fast enough and Wright hits it.

This one is a bit weird. Under 2 minutes to go, UK up by 18. UGA player guarded by Big O dribbles to the elbow and a cutter cuts down the lane. Oquendo is down in the corner guarded by Grady. Big O sags off of the UGA player to help guard the cutter. Grady slides over to guard the ball carrier leaving Oquendo (22 percent shooter, previously 0-4 in the game) open for his first triple of the game. Weird decision by Oscar.


I would say that most of these are not poor defense and not giving up open looks. Some were extremely deep shots, one was contested and one was open because UK turned it over in transition. We gave up 3 open looks when the game was pretty close. We can clean those up. The others, UK was up 17/18 or they were really long threes, were contested or the one where UK themselves turned it over in transition.

 

[IL Wildcat]

This is a take the over type game, right? Over 142.

Yeah, I would say so. I'm not a betting man, but I would take the over on this one. UK is going to score at least 75-80 points and A&M at home will likely hit at least 65-70. KenPom has the total at 147 in their prediction. I think it's more than that- 150+

 

[IL Wildcat]

That is pretty terrible when you look at it like that...not sure why the coaches are allowing this. I get we blew out TN, Vandy and UGA...but it cost us in the LSU game for sure. I think with TN we thought they sucked from 3 and they surprised us...to be fair though as unrealistically good as UK shot in that game UT's 3 pointers didn't bother me much.

That said, the tend is not a good one as you pointed out. UK has to improve.

Yeah, teams have been making shots against UK that they usually don't make. That's why UK is always way down on the "luck" statistic on KenPom. We are currently #320 in luck, which means opponents usually do better against UK than others. Call it "beer goggles" or what have you, it's absolutely legitimate. I'm sure we'll see it tonight. If we do not impose our will, A&M will play over their heads.

Having said this, there is an easier explanation for this- 3 of those 4 games were blowouts and the defense wasn't as focused, and didn't really need to because we were winning by 20-30 points. The LSU game was the one where it was truly important to play better perimeter defense, but we lost our best on-ball defender 4 minutes into the game and we lost TyTy for about half of the 2nd half. It's hard to be great defensively when you're missing some of your best perimeter pieces.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Yeah, I would say so. I'm not a betting man, but I would take the over on this one. UK is going to score at least 75-80 points and A&M at home will likely hit at least 65-70. KenPom has the total at 147 in their prediction. I think it's more than that- 150+

I don't bet much. Basically just when draft king does a gimme promo. Yesterday the promo was bet up to 20 at +100 that either UT or Vandy hit a first half three.

It didn't work for me so they gave me a free 20 dollar bet. I bet the over, UK to win by more than 7.5 and to be leading at half and end. I get $78 if I win. Figured I might as well give it a go.

 

[westerncat]

Enjoy reading your scouting reports. I feel good about this game. I think we will win this game if the ref's don't get happy with their calls and get Oscar in foul trouble.