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Scouting Stony Brook

I'm from Long Island I was happy for Stony but now I have to root against them, I'll never hear the end of it if we lose but we win by like 20 I think their guards can't match ours one bit. Warney is a beast though
 
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While stony brook does deserve credit, they are very thin in depth. If their star gets into foul trouble, it's a wrap. I believe it will be competitive the majority of the first half though. Cats pull away in the second half and win by 18.
 
Warney's a stud, and that Puriefoy is a pretty player as well. Good shooter. woodhouse is a lights out 3pt shooter, but the simple fact is....We're bigger, more athletic, and WAY more talented. But Stony Brook is a decent little team. I could see Warney having trouble down low. He's 6'8 or so. I could see our long athletic bigs giving him issues.
 
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Warney's a stud, and that Puriefoy is a pretty player as well. Good shooter. woodhouse is a lights out 3pt shooter, but the simple fact is....We're bigger, more athletic, and WAY more talented. But Stony Brook is a decent little team. I could see Warney having trouble down low. He's 6'8 or so. I could see our long athletic bigs giving him issues.
Just put Poythress on him
 
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Im sure playing for SB Warney is not used to playing v guys not only as big as him but just as talented and athletic.
Poythress and Lee will neutralize him and the final score will not be pretty.
Im already thinking about Indiana and all their fans they will bring.
After all Iowa is just 1 cornfield West for the Hoosiers.
 
On paper, and if our guys show up and turn up the heat from the opening tip and keep it on through the end of the game, UK should win by 30. Key things to me:

1) SB doesn't turn teams over. Bad for them. They'll need something more than one big guy in the paint.
2) SB doesn't shoot the 3 well. Barring a ridiculous showing, this is also bad for them. They can't rely on one dude in the paint for everything. The only teams that have beaten us or come close, managed to hit a good share of 3 pointers. Without those, SB has no chance.
3) SB has a horrible offense, even against a horrible SOS. Our defense has taken the back seat to our offense, but I don't think that matters. SB may have trouble scoring 50 points.
4) SB's depth is weak. They surely don't want to get into a running game with the Cats - and whomever is guarding Murray will need some O2 at halftime given how much he moves without the ball.
5) SB is short in the length/height department when compared to UK. We could go small and still have longer/taller guys than SB. As we've heard every year from these small teams that come in gung ho only to be squashed - "They were much bigger than we've ever faced", "their length was just too much to overcome", and "they are much more athletic than we could have predicted". Stony Brook will end up being another team with bulging eyeballs during pre-game warm-ups when they get to see just how big UK's athletes really are.
6) They shoot FTs worse than we do. They'll need all the scoring options they can get, and without this one, foul trouble for us may not result in points on the board for them.

If we don't win this by at least 20, I'll be shocked.

In the write up, I thought I saw they shoot about 37% as a team from 3, that is pretty good. I don't see how that can be described as a weakness at all.

I think we should be in solid shape but the percentage is more of a concern than something to hang a hat on. I'm not going to bother to look but I bet we don't shoot that we'll as a team and we are a better than fair outside shooting team now.
 
In the write up, I thought I saw they shoot about 37% as a team from 3, that is pretty good. I don't see how that can be described as a weakness at all.

I think we should be in solid shape but the percentage is more of a concern than something to hang a hat on. I'm not going to bother to look but I bet we don't shoot that we'll as a team and we are a better than fair outside shooting team now.

Umm Yes we do. 37%.
 
The Vandy game was the 2nd game of the year and as we see tonight Vandy is so inconsistent you don't know which Vandy your going to play. I saw the Stony Brook vs. ND game and it could have been a 40 point win for ND but won by 25. Stony Brook does have one impressive player in Warney and usually gets his double/double but if Poythress can stay out of foul trouble and Lee and Skal if needed can step up then we should win easy Thursday night. I love the line-up of Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Willis, and Poythress, with Lee, Skal, and Hawkins off the bench. The way that we have played over last 3-4 weeks and the SEC Tournament if we can continue to play that way we will be hard to beat. We have been shooting well over 50% from 3 with Murray, Ulis, and Willis leading the way. Poythress played 3 straight games in the SEC Tournament and really played well and shot 5/8 from 3 in the final 2 games. He was taking it strong to the basket, hitting midrange jumpers, 3 point shots and rebounding and playing defense. It was best I have seen Poythress in some time and if Ulis, Murray, and Willis are shooting well from outside it helps the inside game of Poythress, Lee, and Skal. If we can get Skal playing like he did vs. Florida and LSU it makes Kentucky even stronger and better.
 
The Vandy game was the 2nd game of the year and as we see tonight Vandy is so inconsistent you don't know which Vandy your going to play. I saw the Stony Brook vs. ND game and it could have been a 40 point win for ND but won by 25. Stony Brook does have one impressive player in Warney and usually gets his double/double but if Poythress can stay out of foul trouble and Lee and Skal if needed can step up then we should win easy Thursday night. I love the line-up of Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Willis, and Poythress, with Lee, Skal, and Hawkins off the bench. The way that we have played over last 3-4 weeks and the SEC Tournament if we can continue to play that way we will be hard to beat. We have been shooting well over 50% from 3 with Murray, Ulis, and Willis leading the way. Poythress played 3 straight games in the SEC Tournament and really played well and shot 5/8 from 3 in the final 2 games. He was taking it strong to the basket, hitting midrange jumpers, 3 point shots and rebounding and playing defense. It was best I have seen Poythress in some time and if Ulis, Murray, and Willis are shooting well from outside it helps the inside game of Poythress, Lee, and Skal. If we can get Skal playing like he did vs. Florida and LSU it makes Kentucky even stronger and better.
Good points dave. I agree with you. I think the one thing that should give us great hope for the tournament is the fact that Alex Poythress seems to always step up in tournament games. Alex has been coming on more and more here lately, though. That second knee issue he had a few weeks ago was a set-back, but he's clearly recovered from that now. I think the proof of that was the block where he chased down the guy (can't remember at this moment who it was) and came from seemingly out of nowhere to swat that ball and 5 rows deep. That's the old Alex, and that may be the first time we've seen him make that kind of play this season.

We've also seen Willis getting back into the groove in these last few games. That ankle injury came at a bad time for him, when he was really stepping up his game. So, it's taken a bit of time for him to get back. But if you look at his numbers in recent games, it's clear he's getting back to where he was. His first game back was the season finale against LSU and he played 14 minutes, scored 6 points on 2-4 from 3, and only grabbed 1 rebound. Clearly, he wasn't back fully. But in these last 2 games (Georgia and A&M), Willis averaged 12pts, 5.5reb, 3 blocks, while shooting 5-12 from 3pt range, 9-10 from the FT line, and playing 25 minutes each game. Lee didn't have a great SEC tournament but I fully expect him to step up his game in the NCAA-T as well. He's been there before and he's stepped up before on a big stage. Anyone remember that Michigan game 2 years ago? It sure is nice having that kind of experience to fall back on.

I would love to see Skal have a great tournament, but I think we'll be fine without him being dominant. We just need him to come in and provide good minutes- make a couple shots, rebound, block a shot or two, not get pushed around, and just do his thing. We don't need heroics, though it wouldn't surprise if he gets hot in a game and goes for 20. I think it's bubbling under the surface with him. He's like Alex has been for much of his career. If he makes his first shot and a couple good plays early, look out! But if he misses his first shot and then another, he checks out and it affects his entire demeanor. But I think Poythress has turned a corner this season in this regard.

It's funny to me, all these prognosticators are basically counting on UK getting nothing from its post players, but that is a mistake in my mind. No, they haven't been dominant this season, but they have produced, as a group. It's not the same guy every night, but someone steps up. And the thing is this- UK's post guy don't lack talent, athleticism, length, and ability, they have just lacked consistency. When Willis stepped in, that changed. Then he got hurt and so did Alex. But now we've got everyone back and healthy and I think these big men are going to surprise some folks.
 
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i look for a big game from Skal,they don't have a defensive match-up for him.i think we put a sack full of points on the board.
 
i look for a big game from Skal,they don't have a defensive match-up for him.i think we put a sack full of points on the board.
You could be right. Their power forward is 6-7 230, so he's not gonna block Skal's jumper. If Skal is hitting that shot, he could have a big game.
 
Looking up some info on Stony Brook on Synergy
  • Score just 1 point per possession (PPP) in transition, which ranks in the bottom 31% of D1, and this accounts for 14.5% of their possessions. But they do draw shooting fouls on 21.1% on transition plays, but they also turn it over 16.8% of the time. Only score on 48.6% of their transition possessions
  • They spot up on 29.3% of their possessions and score just 0.941 PPP, they rank better than only 55% of the country in spot ups, so nothing special here
  • They likely score more effectively in postups than any team we have played all season as they rank in the top 1% of that category, scoring 1.04 PPP, but they only post up on 12.7% of their possessions
  • They also kill on offensive rebounds (top 10%, 1.196 PPP) and cuts (top 21%, 1.198). These plays account for a combined 19.1% of their possessions.
  • The P&R ball handler shoots on 7.3% of their possessions, a,d they are terrible at this, rank in the bottom 24% at .699 PPP
 
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More on Stony Brook on Synergy, this time on defense.

Defensively, Stony Brook rates anywhere from good, very good, to excellent in every aspect of defense other than defending the P&R Roll Man, which is something Kentucky doesn't really utilize. Stony Brook simply rates out as average on that.

Alas, Tyrell Sturdivant is the only individual defender that has played in over 1% of the team's minutes that overall doesn't rate at minimum as a good defender, so there doesn't seem to be much of any individuals teams can consistently go at to exploit all the time

However, there are situations that Kentucky can certainly exploit. Ahmad Walker ranks in the bottom 27% of D1 players in defending the P&R ball handler. He is a 6'4" guard who looks like he is their PG or secondary ballhandler given he leads the teams in assists and turnovers. Our guards should feast for days on the P&R
 
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Thanks for the input wildcatsboston. The thing about all these numbers is that they are somewhat misleading due to their strength of schedule. There's a massive difference between the 15 teams rated below #300 nationally Stony Brook played and Kentucky. They just won't be able to defend UK in the same way.

And Walker is the point guard, yes. And I think the pick and roll will likely be on of the thorns in Stony Brook's side tonight. First, they will struggle stopping Ulis' drives, so they'll need help, which means the guy who set the pick will either be open for a three or an open path to the basket.
 
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