Rothstein Podcast - Picks UK 9th in SEC
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Well one of my sons is headed to Ithica for grad school but for a slightly different place, Cornell.
I honestly think the premise is a bit ridiculous.
Someone on Twitter posted: During Billy G's NIT season, we were 8th in the SEC. In 2021: Cal took us to the worst record in school history. We were 8th in the SEC.
As someone else pointed out: Pope finished 5th in the Big 12 with a lesser roster. I keep reading how the Big 12 is THE conference in college basketball. Yet he moves to the SEC with an improved roster and is going to fall 4 spots?
"Oh he's got a bunch of transfers that haven't played P5"
Welll.....
Tyler Kolek
Mark Sears
Grant Nelson
Baylor Scheirman
Dalton Knecht.
Several of the best players in college basketball came from smaller schools/conferences as transfers.
But...
Robinson played against the Big 12. Carr played against the ACC. Garrison and Oweh played against the Big 12. Kriisa played against the PAC10 and Big 12.
For years we've been slammed for a lack of experience. Now we have one of the most experienced teams we've seen in decades.
I'll be shocked if we're not top 4 in the conference. I think it's a top 15 roster. I think Pope is a better X's and O's coach than Calipari. I think we'll lose games. But we won't have near the frustration.
Someone on Twitter posted: During Billy G's NIT season, we were 8th in the SEC. In 2021: Cal took us to the worst record in school history. We were 8th in the SEC.
As someone else pointed out: Pope finished 5th in the Big 12 with a lesser roster. I keep reading how the Big 12 is THE conference in college basketball. Yet he moves to the SEC with an improved roster and is going to fall 4 spots?
"Oh he's got a bunch of transfers that haven't played P5"
Welll.....
Tyler Kolek
Mark Sears
Grant Nelson
Baylor Scheirman
Dalton Knecht.
Several of the best players in college basketball came from smaller schools/conferences as transfers.
But...
Robinson played against the Big 12. Carr played against the ACC. Garrison and Oweh played against the Big 12. Kriisa played against the PAC10 and Big 12.
For years we've been slammed for a lack of experience. Now we have one of the most experienced teams we've seen in decades.
I'll be shocked if we're not top 4 in the conference. I think it's a top 15 roster. I think Pope is a better X's and O's coach than Calipari. I think we'll lose games. But we won't have near the frustration.
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Yeah I’ll say it
2025 SEC COY - Mark Pope
2025 SEC COY - Mark Pope
We are going to need to show something on the court this year to get any respect from some.
Understandable in a way. Pope and most of the players are making a jump up in competition. No returning production. No obvious lottery picks on the roster.
Understandable in a way. Pope and most of the players are making a jump up in competition. No returning production. No obvious lottery picks on the roster.
One thing I will say about the SEC is I don't see it ever going back to what it was. Too much depth and talent elsewhere to expect UK to dominate. I think winning the league and tourney 3 or 4 times each in a 10 year stretch would be very successful if Pope can pull that off.
It has nothing to do with the team but the coach. I believe he is not sold on Pope and his coaching staff. I guarantee if Self or Cal had this team it would not be a preseason #9. This is an important year for Pope and prove to the World he is worthy.
Yes, it would shock me to finish 9th or 10th in the SEC. Our 9-16 team finished 8th in conference. Some of you need to get a clue.
Not only that, but look at the quality of coaches across the SEC, top to bottom. Has it ever been this deep?
Every freakin P5 school has transfers they are putting a lot of expectations on! Not just UK.
That is the transfer-portal we now live in.
Yes, we have more than most. But most of ours are NOT taking a big step up in competition.
Oweh, Robinson, Kriisa, Carr, Garrison, Brea, Butler, Williams, Amonor
That is 5 from P5 schools, 4 of whom were one of the 2-3 best players on their P5 team.
Add one from a school that is an upper-end mid-major (Dayton), and one who played significant minutes on a Final 4 team.
So, there are really only 2 transfers, one expected to be 9th man, coming in to face much stiffer competition than they are used to seeing.
I would bet a month's salary with him we finish better than 9th (I'll give him 9th or worse). Heck, I'll even let him have 8th.
It's not as crazy as it sounds when you dig into it. There were 9 current SEC teams in the tournament this past year with the lowest seeded team being 9 seed TAMU.
Not that preseason rankings mean a ton, but ESPN has us ranked as the 8th best SEC team. CBS Sports doesn't have us among the 7 SEC schools ranked in their top 25. Fox Sports doesn't have us ranked among the 6 SEC schools ranked in their top 25.
I don't think we finish that low, but it's not inconceivable that we do. I could see this being the preseason predictions:
1. Alabama
2. Auburn
3. Tennessee
4. Texas A&M
5. Arkansas
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. Kentucky
As a counterpoint I would say just look at Arkansas last year. They were team of very good transfers that never game together as a team and finished 12th. And now the conference has two more teams in it.
We have a brand new coach who has never coached under this amount of pressure before, and a completely brand new team that has to learn the brand new coach's brand new system in a pressure cooker environment. Relying on transfers is always a gamble, and when it's a bunch of transfers and a new coach and new system it's even more of a gamble. It's just as possible this gamble fails spectacularly this year as it is it succeeds.
No one knows. And to act like Rothstein's prediction is any less legitimate than someone picking us to finish fourth just because you don't like his prediction is just being a homer.
You do realize that on the uk board, most of us are Homer's?
Most of us also feel better about this year's chances with a new coach, rather than the previous one.
It is also not as likely that it fails spectacularly. That would be 9-17, a spectacular fail. Remember?
I vote much less likely.
GBB!
He knew it would bring more attention to pick us 9th instead of 5th when in reality he has no idea how good or bad we'll be.
"“People automatically think that just because a team wears Kentucky across its chest, it’s going to be really, really good."
No UK basketball fan who has suffered through the past 4 seasons thinks this. Not sure who he's referring to here.
I'm feeling optimistic that this team will be much better than expected. 9th place finish in the SEC would be very disappointing. But having witnessed the Billy G debacle plus these last 4 years of Cal ... I'm prepared for anything.
If we finish 9th, recruiting will be nonexistent and Pope won’t be here long. We really need a good season.
I am not saying we are winning the SEC. I don't even know that I would bet we will be in top 4 (I think it will be close, say 3rd-5th). So trying to not be a "homer".
But you are talking like it is a flip-of-the-coin, a roll-of-a die. Which IMO goes to the other extreme of being a "homer".
Yes, it's a brand new team, just as almost every other team will have. And actually with new players, it makes it less of a factor that our coach is new, because even though (for example) the Alabama coach has been there for awhile, he is new to many of his players. So not that different than Pope being new to his players (except Robinson).
As for the pressure on the coach, that seems to rarely be a factor that changes from coaching one school to another. The few times it is, is when that coach has other issues (like a drinking problem, BCG) that exacerbate the pressure/stress. And don't forget, Pope as a player was a captain on one of the 5 most pressured teams to win over the past 30 years, and he had 2-3 years to experience the insanity of BBN's passion for the team/game.
And while performance of transfers can be difficult to predict (although to a much lesser degree for transfers from other P5 schools), they are actually at least as predictable as performance of freshmen.
4th would be quite reasonable, even 6th would be somewhat reasonable. But 9th, you are talking the bottom half of the league. Thinking that is ridiculous is not being a "homer". And like I said, I will put my money where my mouth is on a better than 9th place SEC finish.
