Ran my model update tonight…

[Aike]

Cats are up to 2nd, behind only Arizona.

By far the best we’ve modeled at this point in the season in the 6 years I’ve been doing this.

Overall rating is currently 3.37 out of a possible 6 points.

For context, the highest score at the end of the tournament last year was UCONN at 2.75.

In the years I’ve been doing this, I believe I’ve never had more than 3 teams with a 3+ score at the end of the regular season. That was in 2019 with Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke.

Anyway, great start. Let’s keep our foot on the gas.

 

[CatChow]

Cats are up to 2nd, behind only Arizona.

By far the best we’ve modeled at this point in the season in the 6 years I’ve been doing this.

Overall rating is currently 3.37 out of a possible 6 points.

For context, the highest score at the end of the tournament last year was UCONN at 2.75.

In the years I’ve been doing this, I believe I’ve never had more than 3 teams with a 3+ score at the end of the regular season. That was in 2019 with Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke.

Anyway, great start. Let’s keep our foot on the

Cats are up to 2nd, behind only Arizona.

By far the best we’ve modeled at this point in the season in the 6 years I’ve been doing this.

Overall rating is currently 3.37 out of a possible 6 points.

For context, the highest score at the end of the tournament last year was UCONN at 2.75.

In the years I’ve been doing this, I believe I’ve never had more than 3 teams with a 3+ score at the end of the regular season. That was in 2019 with Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke.

Anyway, great start. Let’s keep our foot on the gas.

Congrats on the model running.

 

[UKUGA]

When do you start posting it online?

 

[bbncal02]

Cats are up to 2nd, behind only Arizona.

By far the best we’ve modeled at this point in the season in the 6 years I’ve been doing this.

Overall rating is currently 3.37 out of a possible 6 points.

For context, the highest score at the end of the tournament last year was UCONN at 2.75.

In the years I’ve been doing this, I believe I’ve never had more than 3 teams with a 3+ score at the end of the regular season. That was in 2019 with Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke.

Anyway, great start. Let’s keep our foot on the gas.

That's the numbers I like to see!

 

[Aike]

When do you start posting it online?

Not sure. Just haven’t gotten around to it.

 

[kyboy1998]

I always crack up when I see you say, “my model.”

I’ve kept up with it though and your math seems to be really good. I read every thread you start.

 

[StubbornPenny]

Rock on. I wonder how much the past tournaments affect our score, as I believe part of your metric involved that? We’re such a different team it feels a little ancillary. Maybe the model could incorporate other teams that play at a similar pace?

I like that you’re out there trying to quantify stuff. I’m always coming up with little metrics in my head to optimize workflow, etc

 

[Aike]

Rock on. I wonder how much the past tournaments affect our score, as I believe part of your metric involved that? We’re such a different team it feels a little ancillary. Maybe the model could incorporate other teams that play at a similar pace?

I like that you’re out there trying to quantify stuff. I’m always coming up with little metrics in my head to optimize workflow, etc.

The model is created based on past tournament results, but the current inputs are for this season only.

So it isn’t like past Kentucky teams affect the score of this team. The model is trained on a basket of every team that participated in the tournament over the last 10+ years. It doesn’t “know” which of those teams was Kentucky.

Ultimately, it’s just saying that teams who fit a certain statistical profile are most likely to have success in the tournament.

 

[Swan Song]

Cats are up to 2nd, behind only Arizona.

By far the best we’ve modeled at this point in the season in the 6 years I’ve been doing this.

Overall rating is currently 3.37 out of a possible 6 points.

For context, the highest score at the end of the tournament last year was UCONN at 2.75.

In the years I’ve been doing this, I believe I’ve never had more than 3 teams with a 3+ score at the end of the regular season. That was in 2019 with Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke.

Anyway, great start. Let’s keep our foot on the gas.

I don't often post and I've read this board for years. You've a good tool with this model. Thank you for sharing it.

 

[Wildcats1st]

What’s the driving factor in why we are so high?

 

[Aike]

What’s the driving factor in why we are so high?

Shooting the ball extremely well, and sharing the ball without a lot of turnovers.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Shooting the ball extremely well, and sharing the ball without a lot of turnovers.

This is a recipe for 35 wins.

 

[CatPatrick13]

Cats are up to 2nd, behind only Arizona.

By far the best we’ve modeled at this point in the season in the 6 years I’ve been doing this.

Overall rating is currently 3.37 out of a possible 6 points.

For context, the highest score at the end of the tournament last year was UCONN at 2.75.

In the years I’ve been doing this, I believe I’ve never had more than 3 teams with a 3+ score at the end of the regular season. That was in 2019 with Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke.

Anyway, great start. Let’s keep our foot on the gas.

Is there any reason you wouldn’t be using this model to bet outcomes? Asking for my cousin, Joey Dice.

 

[Aike]

This is a recipe for 35 wins.

35 is a lot. If they keep up this pace they should win 30+. 35 would be a special season.

 

[Aike]

Is there any reason you wouldn’t be using this model to bet outcomes? Asking for my cousin, Joey Dice.

I’m not a gambler. You can use it to predict point spreads, and it does a pretty good job.

Does it do well enough to overcome the vig, crooked refs, and inside information? There’s a reason Vegas has all those shiny buildings. Just my two cents.

 

[StubbornPenny]

The model is created based on past tournament results, but the current inputs are for this season only.

So it isn’t like past Kentucky teams affect the score of this team. The model is trained on a basket of every team that participated in the tournament over the last 10+ years. It doesn’t “know” which of those teams was Kentucky.

Ultimately, it’s just saying that teams who fit a certain statistical profile are most likely to have success in the tournament.

I like that

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Shooting the ball extremely well, and sharing the ball without a lot of turnovers.

As it should be. That’s the biggest reason I’m optimistic about our chances this year. We have an extremely low amount of turnovers.