Kinda reminds me of the year we had to play LSU FOUR times!
Hopefully the outcome is different this time
Hopefully the outcome is different this time
Playing Tennessee for the third time....
- Thread starter Blueathletics
- Start date
Hope we practice our layups. Lol. But yeah it's going to be tough.
This may be Tennessee’s last chance for a while. Besides losing most of the team, I have a feeling Barnes is retiring after this year.
But we beat Alabama for the third time that season in the Sweet Sixteen, so that’s a good omen.
The Elite 8 against Auburn (round 3) didn’t go very well. It is hard to do.
It is very hard to beat a team 3 times in a season, hopefully we can do it.
We know them as well as any team we’ve played. It’s an advantage for us.
Bama beat us 3x this year. If it’s the reverse it’s another good omen. It’s meaningless especially how UK has changed lineups so many times due to injury/player availability. I’m not saying I’m confident but we won’t lose bc of the 3x bs.
You know we're due for a game where we shoot a high percentage on layups lol maybe just dunk practice
Well, the good news is that we know we can beat them. It's a good matchup for Kentucky. Tennessee will be favored, but obviously Kentucky can win this game. Maybe we should be optimistic for once? Not overly confident, but optimistic.
Knowing our AD it will be someone from a mid major that nobody is thinking of. It will probably work out but it is gonna take some time. We will be starting over.
I get AUB flashbacks E8, but whatever. Too happy right now and the rest is gravy. We beat them twice we can do it again.
I read an article once that stated that the belief that it’s difficult to beat a team 3x is not based on any statistical reality.
I suspect the author had sone figures to back this up, but I have no recollection.
Here is what Grok says:
The common saying in college basketball, "it's hard to beat a team three times in one season," suggests that a team that has already defeated an opponent twice faces a significant challenge in winning a third matchup. However, statistical evidence from NCAA Division I men's basketball over the past decade or so consistently contradicts this notion.
Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271). Far from being "hard," this indicates that the team that won the first two games is highly likely—winning nearly three out of four times—to secure the third victory as well.
Additional insights reinforce this trend. For example, an analysis of the 2024-2025 season up to March 20, 2025, found that in 67 conference tournament games where a team faced an opponent it had beaten twice in the regular season, the 2-0 team won all 67 times—a perfect 67-0 record. While this sample is smaller and specific to one season, it aligns with the broader 10-year trend, suggesting that the difficulty of winning a third time is overstated.
Several factors might explain why the 2-0 team tends to succeed in the third matchup. A team that has beaten an opponent twice likely has a talent or strategic advantage—better coaching, superior players, or effective game plans—that persists into the third game. Familiarity with the opponent could also allow the 2-0 team to refine its approach, while the losing team may struggle to adapt sufficiently, especially in a short timeframe like a conference tournament. High-variability outcomes, such as upsets driven by hot shooting or luck, do occur (e.g., UCLA’s comeback against Arizona in 2002-03 after two blowout losses), but these are exceptions rather than the rule.
The perception that it’s hard to win a third time may stem from memorable upsets or the psychological complacency of a favored team, but the numbers don’t bear this out as a general truth. In college basketball, statistical evidence strongly suggests that beating a team three times is not particularly difficult for the team that has already won twice. Instead, it’s more accurate to say that the 2-0 team typically holds a clear edge.
I suspect the author had sone figures to back this up, but I have no recollection.
Here is what Grok says:
The common saying in college basketball, "it's hard to beat a team three times in one season," suggests that a team that has already defeated an opponent twice faces a significant challenge in winning a third matchup. However, statistical evidence from NCAA Division I men's basketball over the past decade or so consistently contradicts this notion.
Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271). Far from being "hard," this indicates that the team that won the first two games is highly likely—winning nearly three out of four times—to secure the third victory as well.
Additional insights reinforce this trend. For example, an analysis of the 2024-2025 season up to March 20, 2025, found that in 67 conference tournament games where a team faced an opponent it had beaten twice in the regular season, the 2-0 team won all 67 times—a perfect 67-0 record. While this sample is smaller and specific to one season, it aligns with the broader 10-year trend, suggesting that the difficulty of winning a third time is overstated.
Several factors might explain why the 2-0 team tends to succeed in the third matchup. A team that has beaten an opponent twice likely has a talent or strategic advantage—better coaching, superior players, or effective game plans—that persists into the third game. Familiarity with the opponent could also allow the 2-0 team to refine its approach, while the losing team may struggle to adapt sufficiently, especially in a short timeframe like a conference tournament. High-variability outcomes, such as upsets driven by hot shooting or luck, do occur (e.g., UCLA’s comeback against Arizona in 2002-03 after two blowout losses), but these are exceptions rather than the rule.
The perception that it’s hard to win a third time may stem from memorable upsets or the psychological complacency of a favored team, but the numbers don’t bear this out as a general truth. In college basketball, statistical evidence strongly suggests that beating a team three times is not particularly difficult for the team that has already won twice. Instead, it’s more accurate to say that the 2-0 team typically holds a clear edge.
We are. They count on holding teams to 65 or under to win. Hard to hold us under 75. If Butler is as good as he was today on Ziegler, I really really like our chances. Brea with a “big boy” game today and he may be able to offset Lanier with 20+.
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Our front court has gave the vols fit this year
UK matches up incredibly well vs. UT this season. Didn't we not have Butler and Jaxon against them when we beat them in Rupp Arena ? Wasn't we also very short handed when we beat them in Knoxville ? We're still short handed but not nearly as much as we were then. Our boys are on a mission and we'll have a massive home court advantage in Indy. I'm not saying it's a lock or anything close to it but I damn sure like our chances.
Let go of the tired narrative here are the absolute cold hard facts
College BB Teams that win first two games in a season win 72% of the time in the third game based on over 1000 games over past 30 years
Maybe it’s the matchup but here’s the bottom line
UK knows they can beat TN and TN has doubt if they can beat UK
College BB Teams that win first two games in a season win 72% of the time in the third game based on over 1000 games over past 30 years
Maybe it’s the matchup but here’s the bottom line
UK knows they can beat TN and TN has doubt if they can beat UK
Yep. I forgot, we beat them in the SEC tourney as well that year.
I’m also thinking
Our defense is better
Koby Brea has developed an inside game
The emergence of Chandler
Carr is not so cripples
And we have the real Butler back
If we face Bama this year, it’s to play on Monday night for the title. I’ll take that.
You know they're griping about their draw right now.
Tn is a very good team but the cats have beaten them already twice hope they can make it 3 times.
If Brea plays like that we're hard to beat
Thankfully we are only at #3
We owe Rick Barnes the many times Cal laid down for him.
Regardless of what happens next weekend, this season has been a monumental success and has completely fixed the foundation Cal so thoroughly broke.
I mean, it would have been the easiest thing in the world for Pope and the team to hang it up when we had to start playing our 3rd option at point guard.
Then we had to play our 4th option for multiple stretches lol
Pope made zero excuse, he just made adjustments and kept moving.
Legitimately incredible what he pulled off this season, regardless of what happens next weekend
I mean, it would have been the easiest thing in the world for Pope and the team to hang it up when we had to start playing our 3rd option at point guard.
Then we had to play our 4th option for multiple stretches lol
Pope made zero excuse, he just made adjustments and kept moving.
Legitimately incredible what he pulled off this season, regardless of what happens next weekend
Already beat them twice, although they're playing better. But I'm actually satisfied with a sweet 16, I wasn't with just first round. But if we hit our shots we'll go to the elite 8. This team seems to really over perform against Tennessee. The name on the Jersey type stuff.
Close. -4.5 as of a bit ago.
What's funny is the spreads are larger next weekend than they were this weekend against lower seeded teams. Weird.
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