Playing Tennessee for the third time....

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

Kentucky matches up well with Tennessee. When you win at Tennessee without your starting PG in Butler, that is a massive statement. I feel good about a 3rd meeting with them with a sea of blue getting in Indy.

 

[Bkocats]

Regardless of what happens next weekend, this season has been a monumental success and has completely fixed the foundation Cal so thoroughly broke.

I mean, it would have been the easiest thing in the world for Pope and the team to hang it up when we had to start playing our 3rd option at point guard.

Then we had to play our 4th option for multiple stretches lol

Pope made zero excuse, he just made adjustments and kept moving.

Legitimately incredible what he pulled off this season, regardless of what happens next weekend

amen brother
Im so proud of this team and coach

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Kentucky matches up well with Tennessee. When you win at Tennessee without your starting PG in Butler, that is a massive statement. I feel good about a 3rd meeting with them with a sea of blue getting in Indy.

Yeah if the blue shows up.

 

[know1]

We got this.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

Yeah if the blue shows up.

Least of my worries.

 

[EliteBlue]

I read an article once that stated that the belief that it’s difficult to beat a team 3x is not based on any statistical reality.

I suspect the author had sone figures to back this up, but I have no recollection.


Here is what Grok says:


The common saying in college basketball, "it's hard to beat a team three times in one season," suggests that a team that has already defeated an opponent twice faces a significant challenge in winning a third matchup. However, statistical evidence from NCAA Division I men's basketball over the past decade or so consistently contradicts this notion.

Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271). Far from being "hard," this indicates that the team that won the first two games is highly likely—winning nearly three out of four times—to secure the third victory as well.

Additional insights reinforce this trend. For example, an analysis of the 2024-2025 season up to March 20, 2025, found that in 67 conference tournament games where a team faced an opponent it had beaten twice in the regular season, the 2-0 team won all 67 times—a perfect 67-0 record. While this sample is smaller and specific to one season, it aligns with the broader 10-year trend, suggesting that the difficulty of winning a third time is overstated.

Several factors might explain why the 2-0 team tends to succeed in the third matchup. A team that has beaten an opponent twice likely has a talent or strategic advantage—better coaching, superior players, or effective game plans—that persists into the third game. Familiarity with the opponent could also allow the 2-0 team to refine its approach, while the losing team may struggle to adapt sufficiently, especially in a short timeframe like a conference tournament. High-variability outcomes, such as upsets driven by hot shooting or luck, do occur (e.g., UCLA’s comeback against Arizona in 2002-03 after two blowout losses), but these are exceptions rather than the rule.

The perception that it’s hard to win a third time may stem from memorable upsets or the psychological complacency of a favored team, but the numbers don’t bear this out as a general truth. In college basketball, statistical evidence strongly suggests that beating a team three times is not particularly difficult for the team that has already won twice. Instead, it’s more accurate to say that the 2-0 team typically holds a clear edge.

I think the caveat is “it’s hard to beat A GOOD Team 3 times in a row”.

The stats of just 2-0 and meeting a third time includes a lot of bottom feeders in conference play and then getting them again in the conference tournament so it’s a little skewed in that direction imo. But beating a team that is statistically your equal (or better) a 3rd time is difficult. It’s why sweeps after the first round of the nba playoffs are so rare (home and away plays a role there too tho)

 

[DraftCat]

Checked their forum. They are banking on our 3 point shooters not shooting as well in the bigger stadium.

Very possible we've seen shooters go cold in football stadiums before... but it's the same issue on their side as well.

 

[rick64]

No surprises. Both teams know the other well. Comes down to execution.

 

[fastpaste101]

I’m also thinking
Our defense is better
Koby Brea has developed an inside game
The emergence of Chandler
Carr is not so cripples
And we have the real Butler back

This!

 

[runt#69]

FOURTH time.

(beat Alabama 4 times in 86')

this ^^^^

 

[precipitance]

We are playing the same Tennessee team with our third different team this year. Butler and Carr were out for the first game. Carr (played 1 min) and Robinson were out for the second with Butler hurt. We are more complete right now then we have been in our two previous match-ups. This will be the closest to full strength that they have seen us. Barnes has to prepare for a team with most players having a different, improved role. I like our chances.