One basketball Mother’s opinion if I had a son like Reed….

[UKGrad93]

As a dad, I would tell him that I would support him no matter what he decides.

• Go back to college and have the college experience of being a young adult. Hanging out with other college kids and learning. It can really only happen at a certain time in your life.
• Go to the NBA and live a dream that very few people ever experience.
• Join the Peace Corps or the military.

All can be good things for a person. Which opportunity does he think he would regret missing the most? Which course gives him the best foundation to go forward?

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

Reed's draft stock can't go any higher. I know that we all expected him to be a multi-year player and to fulfill some sort of championship destiny, but his ascension to the position that he's in has been nothing short of amazing.

My heart wants him to return for obvious reasons, but my head and every objective part of me says to strike while the iron his hot. If he was a fringe first-rounder like so many of our other guys have been, then absolutely return and make some statewide NIL money. But he's in a different situation than many of the pros that have come through here.

We don't know which teams will have the top picks until the draft lottery is completed on May 12. The Spurs are an obvious fit for Reed, and that would give him the chance to play with Victor Wembanyama. The opportunity to do that could have an immensely positive impact on his pro career.

As a parent, you have to know when to let your children make it on their own. Parents can sometimes be the biggest detriment to their children's growth and ultimate future when they don't know when to let go or how to rationalize an impending case of "empty nest syndrome". If he wasn't playing for UK and getting advice from UK fans, then the objective, rational advice should overwhelmingly be to go pro now.

 

[thedahc]

He can get insurance to cover that for so its a non issue.

Maximum lifetime loss of value insurance coverage for a men's basketball player is $10 million.

He has been projected as pick 2 or 4 by Parrish and Boone. If he was drafted there, his guaranteed pay over 3 years would be $30 million and $24 million respectively.

These things are not the same and thus it is most certainly not a "non-issue"

 

[wldktz8]

Option one: go pro now and make an extra $10 million in career earnings.

Option two: stay one extra year, still make $100 to $200 million in career earnings, but if you stay you go on to become perhaps the most popular person in an entire state, for the rest of your life.

Is the extra $10 million worth missing out on the latter? Maybe. Only Reed knows.

Going now could end up costing him in the long run. Going now for the quick buck could impact his career in the long run. Reed is probably a G league level player right now. The guards in the NBA would eat him alive right now. Honestly he needs to finish college and then pursue an NBA career. That way if it doesn’t work out he’s not wasting a decade of his life trying to finish college.

 

[*CatinIL*]

Serious question... Why do prisoners never get abducted by aliens?

Because Aliens aren't dumb enough to abduct them...

 

[The Last Ronin]

Going now could end up costing him in the long run. Going now for the quick buck could impact his career in the long run. Reed is probably a G league level player right now. The guards in the NBA would eat him alive right now. Honestly he needs to finish college and then pursue an NBA career. That way if it doesn’t work out he’s not wasting a decade of his life trying to finish college.

Reed's stock is mostly this high now because the draft is so weak. In almost any other year, he isn't even being discussed at a lottery pick, and potentially not even a first rounder. This draft is that bad. It's being considered the weakest draft ever.

Reed isn't magically going to get faster, or more athletic, or more explosive. He isn't going to become a guy that beats others off the dribble. He may get better defensively, but he isn't likely to become great at keeping faster guards in front of him. His shooting numbers aren't going to get better. In fact, they would likely come down a bit, particularly in Pope's offense that involves jacking a lot of 3's.

Reed's stock is only going to get lower as the draft quality improves. He also is already 20, and his age will only become more of an issue the longer he waits.

I know fans don't want to hear or accept it, but if Reed wants the big payday, he needs to take it now and run.

 

[Girthang]

Lotta posts of the same type saying he should go pro from posters that just showed up in the last week. Weird.

One thing no one is addressing is that these are merely draft projections. No guarantee he goes in the lottery.

I hope he gets the most incredible contract and plays for the best team when he goes pro. If that's this year or whenever. I hope he never ever gets hurt. I hope he wins rings and is an AllPro.

Another thing no one is addressing is that either decision is an emotional decision.

Whatever decision he makes, whether it's to return or enter the draft, it's an emotional decision. If anyone thinks otherwise, they're fooling themselves and don't know anything about sales and decision-making. Regardless of whether it's the fear of getting hurt while in college, the fear of missing out on more money, the desire to give something back to your parents immediately for all that they've done for you, or the desire to fulfill the dream of playing pro now, it's all based on emotions.

People that say "business decisions" aren't emotional are deluding themselves. No one can extract the emotion out of it, and even trying to do so is an emotional decision.

We don't know if we'll be here tomorrow. No one does. You don't know if you'll be breathing in 10 minutes much less 10 days, and no one here can guarantee they will be alive to watch the draft. That's just the facts.

-If Reed is THAT good and lives long enough, he will have a lucrative NBA career.
-Yes, the degree will wait.
-LIKEWISE, the NBA might still exist next year (even if LeBron for some reason isn't part of it).
-One decision will not wait.
-Neither path unchosen will exist again in the same way, but one will exist very similarly if he chooses the other.

May God bless him in his decision making and show him the right choices going forward.

 

[Gametown_baller]

If he were my son, I’d advise him to stay 4 years, get plastic surgery, change his appearance and stay another 4 years, and repeat for the next 16 years.

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

Lotta posts of the same type saying he should go pro from posters that just showed up in the last week. Weird.

One thing no one is addressing is that these are merely draft projections. No guarantee he goes in the lottery.

While I do love a good conspiracy theory, Reed's projections as a Top 5-7 pick are very real. I know that I'm one of the new accounts, but a Pope-themed name is of course going to coincide with the hiring of Mark Pope. If anybody believes that new accounts advocating for his declaration to the draft are simply trying to goad him into declaring just to spite Kentucky, then we're getting to some unhealthy territory.

 

[jwm24_2000]

Reed's stock is mostly this high now because the draft is so weak. In almost any other year, he isn't even being discussed at a lottery pick, and potentially not even a first rounder. This draft is that bad. It's being considered the weakest draft ever.

Reed isn't magically going to get faster, or more athletic, or more explosive. He isn't going to become a guy that beats others off the dribble. He may get better defensively, but he isn't likely to become great at keeping faster guards in front of him. His shooting numbers aren't going to get better. In fact, they would likely come down a bit, particularly in Pope's offense that involves jacking a lot of 3's.

Reed's stock is only going to get lower as the draft quality improves. He also is already 20, and his age will only become more of an issue the longer he waits.

I know fans don't want to hear or accept it, but if Reed wants the big payday, he needs to take it now and run.

Okay he gets a 4 year rookie contract and plays for a horrible franchise that isn't going anywhere. And also other players in future drafts that are better come in and Reed gets pushed back to the 11th or 12th guy on the team, then 4 year contract ends and is performance doesn't yield a max contract and he becomes a fringe NBA player. I say go back to school work on your game. If your good enough the NBA will be there. Also could go mid 1st round to a decent team where they don't throw him to the wolves the first few years, and keep improving his game then the rookie deal ends and the organization (team), feels like he's an important piece and give a great 2nd contract.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

It's easy to say in a hypothetical situation IF...IF....but it's THEIR SON. As in the young man needs to do what he's wanted to do since he was a kid and if you can make 8 figures to play a game in an occupation that doesn't guarantee you can play beyond 3/4 yrs---go do it now.

If he's able to prove he can contribute/play beyond his first contract, you are looking at generational wealth for himself/his future family.

Sometimes I think fans forget this is the equivalent of telling someone who won the Lottery to not come forward and get your $. You should just work and be a good person and let someone else win even though you have the numbers for the Super Mega Million Ticket. Nobody would do that. So why should he do this to make others happy at Kentucky?

If he does--God bless him and hope he stays healthy--but this program is bigger than 1 person and that includes a native son of KY.

 

[The Last Ronin]

Okay he gets a 4 year rookie contract and plays for a horrible franchise that isn't going anywhere. And also other players in future drafts that are better come in and Reed gets pushed back to the 11th or 12th guy on the team, then 4 year contract ends and is performance doesn't yield a max contract and he becomes a fringe NBA player. I say go back to school work on your game. If your good enough the NBA will be there. Also could go mid 1st round to a decent team where they don't throw him to the wolves the first few years, and keep improving his game then the rookie deal ends and the organization (team), feels like he's an important piece and give a great 2nd contract.

Your response is fan logic.

Reed isn't getting a max deal or likely a 2nd contract, ever in the NBA. He is getting paid off this first contract and will likely be out of the league before the 4 years, but he still gets the guaranteed money. He only maximizes that amount by going as high as possible now. Coming back will cause his stock to drop simply because the drafts the next few years are expected to be much better quality than this year.

Reed is also 20 now. Age starts becoming a negative factor in the NBA draft process after about 22. If he skips this draft, then for some reason doesn't do well enough next year or feels he has to comeback for a 3rd year, then his age will start being used as a knock against him.

 

[jwm24_2000]

Yes a fan of course. But if he goes this year I'm okay with it. It's is decision and I will respect his decision, and wish him nothing but the best. With that said what I posted was not the fan part of me but the real realization of him playing for a horrible organization is only going to get him money. And honestly I feel he's about more then money, he's competitive and wants to win. How many guys have been top 10 picks in basketball, football or other sports and within 4-5 years no longer in the league? I believe Reed wants a long career. If your good enough the league will always be there.

 

[MegaBlue05]

I will take a few days off from the board when Reed announces he’s going to the league.

Obviously hope I’m wrong, but some people have gotten their hopes so high it’s going to be ugly when they’re dashed. I just hope some of us don’t trash the kid for making a decision that isn’t what’s best for their fandom.

 

[Girthang]

While I do love a good conspiracy theory, Reed's projections as a Top 5-7 pick are very real. I know that I'm one of the new accounts, but a Pope-themed name is of course going to coincide with the hiring of Mark Pope. If anybody believes that new accounts advocating for his declaration to the draft are simply trying to goad him into declaring just to spite Kentucky, then we're getting to some unhealthy territory.

Lol. Drama much? It's not a conspiracy theory. People have been "projected" and not been drafted where they are projected. It happens. Nothing conspiratorial about it

 

[Girthang]

Sometimes I think fans forget this is the equivalent of telling someone who won the Lottery to not come forward and get your $.

No. It isn't.

If he does--God bless him and hope he stays

Agreed. At this point for me, though, it's not even a hope that he stays. It would just be really cool for us if he did. I'm not attached to the outcome

 

[MidseasonTweak]

As a fan I'd tell him to stay, as a parent I'd tell him to go.

 

[ThunderCat98]

One thing no one is addressing is that these are merely draft projections. No guarantee he goes in the lottery.

This reeks of deliberate ignorance on your part. That is, an intentional lack of knowledge or information concerning the situation. Barring an unforeseen circumstance, such as an injury or health concerns, Reed is 100% a lottery pick based on all available metrics and projections. If the evidence - ALL the evidence - points to him being a lottery pick, then he's going to be a lottery pick. How many draft analysts have him outside of the lottery? I've not seen one. You're deluding yourself arguing to the contrary.

 

[Ripcord65]

Maximum lifetime loss of value insurance coverage for a men's basketball player is $10 million.

He has been projected as pick 2 or 4 by Parrish and Boone. If he was drafted there, his guaranteed pay over 3 years would be $30 million and $24 million respectively.

These things are not the same and thus it is most certainly not a "non-issue"

I know almost nothing about this subject, from personal experience, but ... with that said ... I'd bet that one can get any amount of loss-of-value insurance coverage one wants - for a high enough premium. Given the real numbers that you mentioned, it's just unbelievable to me that Reed wouldn't be able to get loss-of-value insurance to cover it. Of course, the "value" would have to be reduced to "present value" for insurance purposes. That is ... getting $30 million over 3 years has a much lower "present value" than getting $30 million in your hand all at one time. But a $10 million maximum present (at the time of loss) benefit seems unrealistic to me, in today's market. The only specialty carrier I know by name is Lloyd's of London. I'd bet that they would write a loss-of-value policy in whatever amount that Reed might want - for their premium price, of course.

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

Whether he gets hurt in college or the NBA, he would regret getting hurt in college more because he never got a chance to live his dream of playing in the NBA.

I really doubt that. He was gonna be in the NBA regardless, but to play a traditional role and his mother, dad's and his coveted school, no way would he have more regrets at the NBA.

 

[UK_fan_41102]

He can get insurance to cover that for so its a non issue.

Non issue? It's evident you don't understand LOV insurance.

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

Lol. Drama much? It's not a conspiracy theory. People have been "projected" and not been drafted where they are projected. It happens. Nothing conspiratorial about it

You said that it was "weird" that these newly registered accounts were advocating for Reed to go pro. What's weird about it? Is there a plot at hand?

 

[Catzman]

Option one: go pro now and make an extra $10 million in career earnings.

Option two: stay one extra year, still make $100 to $200 million in career earnings, but if you stay you go on to become perhaps the most popular person in an entire state, for the rest of your life.

Is the extra $10 million worth missing out on the latter? Maybe. Only Reed knows.

You know what they say. An extra 10 million in the hand is worth more than 200 million in the bush.

25 to 30 mil up front, even if he never renews his contract, is life changing money for him and his future family. There is 0 guarantee he comes back next year and does better and doesn't risk injury or doing worse in a stronger draft next year. I get the logic. But we're not talking fringe 1st round pick. We're talking top 10, if not higher. He'd be foolish to come back if he's guaranteed

 

[Kyhoward]

If my family was financially comfortable or secure, I would highly encourage my son to stay in college and play for the same school his dad and I played at. Go ahead and strive for a national championship - for most people, that’s ultimately far more meaningful and enjoyable than playing in the NBA (likely on a bad team) for a few years.

Other things I’d ask my son to consider:

- Continuing a family legacy is far more rewarding than playing an 80+ game NBA schedule where most of your teammates are several years older than you.

- Compare that with a <40 game college game schedule. Playing double the games really takes a toll on your body.

- True friends and real teammates are much harder to come by in the NBA.

- The higher you get drafted, the more likely you end up on a bad team. (See Tim Couch)

- Stay in Kentucky and go after your childhood dream and legacies related to your home state university. You will be loved forever and you will never be without work or friends for the rest of your life. You can inspire so many children in this state. Join with Mark Pope and let’s get Kentucky basketball back to being fun again and in our hearts forever.

- I stayed up late to watch games, I listened to Cawood and I kept my own box score.

- BBN and boosters will make sure NIL works to your son’s advantage and others where it is appropriate. Another year or two might help to get drafted on a better NBA team

- Your loved ones still live close by and they can get to see more of your games. Priceless.

- You can enjoy your early adulthood more by being around others your own age.

- These are just some of the things to think about as you decide. Now that I’m older, I know which path I would have chosen. I’d give myself every moment possible to hold on to my youthful adulthood - money, 80+basketball game schedules, the grind of the travel schedule, and all of those types of things can wait.

- You get one shot at a legacy - especially one you can share with your family! And the memories will last your lifetime.

Think it over and make the best decision for you and your family - then find peace in your heart. You will always be in our hearts! ❤️

“ I stayed up late to watch games, I listened to Cawood and I kept my own box score.”

From age 10 to 13, I kept score while listening to Cawood. That was 55 years ago!
Lived north of Cincinnati and listened to WHAS 840am
Had the date, attendance, and where the game was played.
Sometimes I was crying after a loss, but most of the time, I had a big grin on my face!

Did not get many TV games back then. Go Big Blue!
Loved your post - a lot to consider but I agree with you. Love the Sheppards!

 

[Bluegrassking]

Logically he has to go.

He is not Tim Duncan where he is going to be the top pick whenever he wants, his stock will almost certainly drop along with the compensation.

I'd love for him to come back but it seems irresponsible to call for it because it is going to really cost him, even in opportunity. A high lottery pick will have more leash than further down.

If Nvida with a big bag is calling few to none are going to stay at MIT to get their degree.
Even if the AI boom fizzles and the ride only lasts a few years you can get that parchment later or not at all.

 

[CRZ4UK]

It's a lot easier to say what you "would" do when you'll never realistically be in the situation to ever worry about it.

Any one of us, if presented with this dilemma, would take the guarantee of $25 - $30 million for 4 years over the possibility of making around a million or so for returning to college for a year.

Way too many unknown variables to put that at

I agree. Everyone want to be Reed except maybe Reed himself. I’m sure he wants to enjoy his UK experience. I’m sure he knows 25 million is on the table to go now. Tough choice. No matter what you have there will always be tough choices in life.

 

[Bank Cat]

If I saw him on the floor at Rupp writhing in pain, it would be so bad.

I think he is gone. I think it is the city move…but, he is in a unique situation. 7-figure NIL money with a dad who is a CFP. Doesn’t have 49 parasite “cousins” waiting for their de facto payday. Even avg/solid investing will make him so freaking liquid due to compounding beginning at such a young age.
For him, it is “what is my ultimate dream in my sport” (UK title, legend, or NBA Champ and All-star, Hall of Fame etc.)
He is going to be wealthy (sort of already is). “How wealthy do I want to be?”

I think his decision is tougher than many. The Sheppard’s ain’t broke and aren’t depending on him to buy them a house.

 

[RecruitingInsiderLUL]

If Nvida with a big bag is calling few to none are going to stay at MIT to get their degree.
Even if the AI boom fizzles and the ride only lasts a few years you can get that parchment later or not at all.

I agree with the main message of this post (Reed should go) but don't think this comparison is accurate.

A "big bag" for an NVIDIA engineer is ~200-250k (after incentives are hit). MIT is arguably the top school in the entire world, and certainly the best engineering school. A degree from MIT opens up doorways (most important being connections) to many companies who will pay that much, and more. I didn't go to MIT, but I did go to an elite school, and you don't just go back when you feel like and finish your degree -- if you're out, you're out. Again, not sure to what extent MIT is like that. It's actually more prudent in this case to finish at MIT (and maybe even get an MBA next door at Harvard before jumping into a career). If it was some normal school you could come back to, I'd agree with you.

The reason I mention all this is to highlight the sheer MAGNITUDE of Reed's decision. We're talking $30Ms, not a few hundred k (which in its own right would put a kid Reed's age in the 99th %ile of his age group), guaranteed. It's something that just can't be comprehended or compared to.

I say he has to go (sadly) -- unlike a regular high paying job (e.g. a silicon valley engineer), his line of work penalizes age, and penalizes it quick. I respect Son of Saul as a poster a lot, but Reed is unlikely to be looking at 100s of Ms expected earnings -- this opportunity from a weak draft class will only be there this year. A perfect storm, if you will.

Gotta admire Reed for being so "normal" with all this going on -- just crazy to think about.

 

[NociHTTP]

I would advise Reed to leave, also.
To me, it’s a no-brainer. Go get the $$$ !!!
The “pressure” on him next year to outperform his fabulous Freshman year would be enormous, far greater than what he may have felt in the last 2 games.
He will be much more of a focus by every team we play … the hunted, versus the hunter.

His performances in the tournaments sure weren't fabulous. I'd hope that left a bad taste in his mouth, but knowing how the Cal culture was, it probably wasn't a biggie.

 

[CaptainBoogerBuns]

I was so bad when I played that I couldn't even get a policy from Lloyd's of Corbin.

Lloyds of Nicholasville

 

[CaptainBoogerBuns]

I agree with the main message of this post (Reed should go) but don't think this comparison is accurate.

A "big bag" for an NVIDIA engineer is ~200-250k (after incentives are hit). MIT is arguably the top school in the entire world, and certainly the best engineering school. A degree from MIT opens up doorways (most important being connections) to many companies who will pay that much, and more. I didn't go to MIT, but I did go to an elite school, and you don't just go back when you feel like and finish your degree -- if you're out, you're out. Again, not sure to what extent MIT is like that. It's actually more prudent in this case to finish at MIT (and maybe even get an MBA next door at Harvard before jumping into a career). If it was some normal school you could come back to, I'd agree with you.

The reason I mention all this is to highlight the sheer MAGNITUDE of Reed's decision. We're talking $30Ms, not a few hundred k (which in its own right would put a kid Reed's age in the 99th %ile of his age group), guaranteed. It's something that just can't be comprehended or compared to.

I say he has to go (sadly) -- unlike a regular high paying job (e.g. a silicon valley engineer), his line of work penalizes age, and penalizes it quick. I respect Son of Saul as a poster a lot, but Reed is unlikely to be looking at 100s of Ms expected earnings -- this opportunity from a weak draft class will only be there this year. A perfect storm, if you will.

Gotta admire Reed for being so "normal" with all this going on -- just crazy to think about.

You’re a great AI poster

 

[kennyskywalker34]

Yeah and if he gets hurt it all goes away. Strike while the iron is hot and go to the league.

I fully expect him to go. But that if he gets hurt it's all gone excuse is so stupid.
Thousands upon thousands of players play 4 years in college and never have a serious injury.
Yet when a handful do. Everyone says X needs to go now before they have a career ending injury

 

[fredmanthecatfan]

I think there are some things that money can’t buy. Being a UK legend is one of them.

There are a lot of things that money can indeed buy.

At what point is a person’s financial status does another few million start to matter less?

If you were a billionaire, how much would you pay to win a championship at UK while being a fan favorite?

If I am advising this young man, I’m telling him there is no wrong answer. Make a decision and feel good about the decision you made. There is no wrong answer between UK and the NBA.