Norlander: Why UK is not a true title contender (yet)

[Smashcat]

Court Report: Why Kentucky's not (yet) a true NCAA title contender; Duke-UNC tops epic weekend of top-10 games

Matt Norlander's insider notebook has more on Ed Cooley and a fascinating look at top-10 teams being historically awful on the road

www.cbssports.com

 

[UKWildcats1987]

No one is a true title contender in January.

The teams that evolve and peak in March will be the teams there when it matters. It's also a lot of luck.

 

[uk78]

I don't see it because Cal doesn't use what we have over about everyone, a deep bench with full court and half court presses, double team the ball when the opponent's point guard has the ball, throwing in a zone to get a team out of their rhythm, poor rebounding, not playing the right guys in the right situations, and often allowing the other team to dictate tempo unless we hit shots early on.

 

[Mike-McD]

40-0

 

[Tampa_cat54]

No one is a true title contender in January.

The teams that evolve and peak in March will be the teams there when it matters. It's also a lot of luck.

I agree.

In January of last year, exactly ZERO people imagined UCONN would be even close to a title contender.

And I mean ZERO.

One year ago today, UCONN was ranked 24th in the AP poll, and had lost SIX GAMES in the month of January.

They LOST SIX GAMES in January. And were on the verge of unranked.

And they won the title in convincing fashion.

Spare me, Matt Norlander, with any talk about who is or is not a title contender in freaking January.

 

[sluggercatfan]

No one is a true title contender in January.

The teams that evolve and peak in March will be the teams there when it matters. It's also a lot of luck.

Think Puke orange, UCONN, Houston, Purdue and unccheat are true title contenders.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

Think Puke orange, UCONN, Houston, Purdue and unccheat are true title contenders.

Left out Kentucky!



Let’s go!

 

[ukfan1622]

The game of basketball is so new and rapidly evolving that I'm not sure any stats of the past mean anything for the present or vice versa.

 

[ukcatz12]

No one is a true title contender in January.

The teams that evolve and peak in March will be the teams there when it matters. It's also a lot of luck.

Look no further than UConn last January when they lost 6 out of 8. There might not be many weeks until March but there’s still a lot of season left.

 

[Smashcat]

Some good stats here. For instance.
Nine teams in the past 26 tournaments have made the Final Four ranked 50th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency, with five of those teams ranked between 80th and 132nd. You can be unexceptional on defense for four months and still pull it together to make the Final Four. This is the list of the worst defenses in the modern era to do it.

 

[Fox2monk]

Think Puke orange, UCONN, Houston, Purdue and unccheat are true title contenders.

Then we are too because I never felt we lose against UNC and we didn’t.

 

[Fox2monk]

Some good stats here. For instance.
Nine teams in the past 26 tournaments have made the Final Four ranked 50th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency, with five of those teams ranked between 80th and 132nd. You can be unexceptional on defense for four months and still pull it together to make the Final Four. This is the list of the worst defenses in the modern era to do it.

I’ve said it all year, all we need to be is decent on defense. Usually if we hold a team to 80 points we can win pretty easy.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Think Puke orange, UCONN, Houston, Purdue and unccheat are true title contenders.

I am near 100% certain UT will choke again n the ncaa tourney. They will never make a final four.

 

[Midway Cat]

We're 2.2 points per 100 possessions from being #44 in defensive efficiency.

We still have several regular season games against teams that aren't great offensively and play very slow (Vandy (x2), Ole Miss, Mississippi State) plus probably one more in the SEC Tournament.

Getting there seems 100% doable.

 

[DreadLox]

"The team has never been 100% until now"?

 

[ukjenning44]

Looking at his chart it’s crazy how often a one or two seed wins the NC, especially a one seed. Seeding evidently matters A LOT.

 

[YardCat]

With good spacing we will increase scoring and our defense will improve

 

[KentuckyCat420]

I don't see it because Cal doesn't use what we have over about everyone, a deep bench with full court and half court presses, double team the ball when the opponent's point guard has the ball, throwing in a zone to get a team out of their rhythm, poor rebounding, not playing the right guys in the right situations, and often allowing the other team to dictate tempo unless we hit shots early on.

Correct, Cal does nothing to fix the team’s blatant issues and will do nothing to change it.

His only “coaching” in season is to change the rotations over and over again. Never once accepting that his old school defensive system is broken and has been for years.

 

[CatsnRoses]

Didn't realize Norlander still had a gig.

What a world.

 

[Fox2monk]

Court Report: Why Kentucky's not (yet) a true NCAA title contender; Duke-UNC tops epic weekend of top-10 games

Matt Norlander's insider notebook has more on Ed Cooley and a fascinating look at top-10 teams being historically awful on the road

www.cbssports.com

I’m sure he has another Column coming about why Duke is!

 

[The_Answer1313]

I agree.

In January of last year, exactly ZERO people imagined UCONN would be even close to a title contender.

And I mean ZERO.

One year ago today, UCONN was ranked 24th in the AP poll, and had lost SIX GAMES in the month of January.

They LOST SIX GAMES in January. And were on the verge of unranked.

And they won the title in convincing fashion.

Spare me, Matt Norlander, with any talk about who is or is not a title contender in freaking January.

Nah that team had signs early on. They reeled off 14 straight wins to start the season. That alone was a sign they were probably good. At that point, they were already second in Kenpom. They dropped 6 of the next 8 but if I recall correctly they had injury issues at the time and surprisingly, after this 6 of 8 losses, they dropped in Kenpom........TO JUST 6TH. They then go on to win 8 of the remaining 9 conference games to end the season.

No that team was indeed considered a title contender even back then. It's just that people tend to over weight wins/losses.

Because of the losing streak, they get misseeded. They get a 4 seed despite the fact that many picked them as the favorite in that region.

 

[The_Answer1313]

In fact I think it's just the opposite.

You can very much tell by now the contenders. Not all but most. The teams that are contending for a 1 or 2 seed this season in March are the same teams that are currently occupying those positions on January 31st, 2024. Things don't change much.

It's not to say a team couldn't improve and break through. There's certainly still plenty of time for a team like UK or someone else to do that. But the Houston's, Purdue's, Arizona's or the world aren't going to completely fall off any time soon.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Not exactly rocket science to keep saying our defense will cost us.

If we draw any team with two good savvy guards we're done unless they have an off night

 

[gharding07]

Anyone with a brain knows our defense needs to get better to be a title contender.

 

[runt#69]

Anyone with a brain knows our defense needs to get better to be a title contender.

EXACTLY !

 

[TankedCat]

I think at the start of the season you have a pretty good idea who is going to be in the thick of it. The list may narrow, but at this time of the year, unless a dynamic in the team changes, you know who is a contender.

Doesn't mean a team can't come out of nowhere but to present an outlier as a regular part of the tournament isn't realistic.

2014 happened once in Cal's tenure here but some fans use that as justification to make declarations about quantifiable improvement at the end of the season.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Interesting that 3 of the 4 worst ranked teams according to Ken Pom to win the title were UConn (2011 & 2014) and Arizona (1997) and all 3 beat UK to win it all.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

Anyone with a brain knows our defense needs to get better to be a title contender.

It definitely does, but we jumped 28 spots after Saturday (up to 70)- UCONN entered the tournament last year 44th in defense on Kenpom, so we have some ground to be sure but we have time to make it. Need to really learn to lock down, and I think a slightly shorter rotation might help.

 

[Cats192]

It definitely does, but we jumped 28 spots after Saturday (up to 70)- UCONN entered the tournament last year 44th in defense on Kenpom, so we have some ground to be sure but we have time to make it. Need to really learn to lock down, and I think a slightly shorter rotation might help.

Bingo.

Also: You don't really have to have a certain KenPom metric. You have to play a certain level of defense. People are fixated on the "no team has ever won with a KenPom Defensive efficiency of x or worse."

But metrics can be skewed. If Kansas was missing Dickinson for a huge chunk of the season and played good defense once they got him back--you wouldn't say that they're doomed because of what their defensive numbers for the year were. You would identify that they were missing a key piece.

And we're a team that has a reason for skewed stats. Assuming no speed bumps between now and 6 EST, this will be our 1st game with the team at full strength.

We started the year off with no 7 footers, no rim protection. We now have 3 of those. Adou has missed several games before coming back Saturday night.

Because of the injuries, we haven't figured everything out. Guys have missed practices. Cal hasn't had the whole season to figure out the best rotations. Guys haven't completely figured out their roles/rotations on defense.

So...if we play significantly better defense over the next 6 weeks and our final Kenpom adjusted efficiency only rises to 48th...I won't be freaking out going into the tournament.